Breaking: São Paulo Upping Restrictions

[Riobard]

Starting Monday, non-essential venues close at 20:00 on weekdays and do not operate on weekends. 

It’s basically a hybrid of the restriction levels, Phase Orange weekdays, Phase Red evenings and all weekend and holiday hours. 

I believe Lagoa qualifies as a restaurant. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Riobard

[TotallyOz]

3 hours ago, Riobard said:

I believe Lagoa qualifies as a restaurant. 

They do have a great menu of offerings.

[Riobard]

14 minutes ago, TotallyOz said:

They do have a great menu of offerings.

The snacks and tips are circularly give and take. You give tips to the snack servers, then you take all the tips you can snack on. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

[TotallyOz]

1 minute ago, Riobard said:

The snacks and tips are circularly give and take. You give tips to the snack servers, then you take all the tips you can snack on. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

The boys and the tips are circularly give and take as well. You give them nice tips, then, they give you all the great sex you can take. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Once, to test this theory, I went with 4 guys in the same day. The next day, I tried again and the sex was even better. Repeated a few times. This was back when I had one amazing lad who would go with me, because unlike some, my energy level weans out after a few (or today after one).

[babybear2]

Does this mean Logoa will not open on weekend and close by 8pm on weekdays?

[Riobard]

1 hour ago, babybear2 said:

Does this mean Logoa will not open on weekend and close by 8pm on weekdays?

Correct ... if Gov. Doria’s statement was interpreted accurately, this measure could persist until the “majority of people are vaccinated”. Now that there is a more concrete plan, however dragged out inoculation is, he appeals to his state constituents to suck it up as there is a plausible end in sight.

Several state regions are actually in Phase Red max restrictions. They tend to be peripheral but you can see these red-mapped zones gradually spread into the central and southern parts of the state. No region is currently Phase 3 Yellow. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Riobard

[babybear2]

1 hour ago, Riobard said:

Correct ... if Gov. Doria’s statement was interpreted accurately, this measure could persist until the “majority of people are vaccinated”. Now that there is a more concrete plan, however dragged out inoculation is, he appeals to his state constituents to suck it up as there is a plausible end in sight.

Several state regions are actually in Phase Red max restrictions. They tend to be peripheral but you can see these red-mapped zones gradually spread into the central and southern parts of the state. No region is currently Phase 3 Yellow. 

majority of people are vaccinated in Brazil .......

I guess that means at least 12 months, could be 24 months

[Riobard]

9 hours ago, babybear2 said:

majority of people are vaccinated in Brazil .......

I guess that means at least 12 months, could be 24 months

Well, yeah, if ya takes it literally ... more likely shorthand for new case incidence getting under control.

They are extremely low on vaccine order contracts, trying to shut Bozo’s unfiltered trap in order to improve Brazilian-Indo and Brazilian-Sino relations, and banking on local production of a substandard vaccine. 

The second wave right now is about at the first wave’s peak. Ebb and flow? Don’t know. Chile and South Africa are mirroring their winter peaks of 6 months ago; does not seem seasonal like flu.  

I have my sights on travel there March 2022, and Europe May 2022 especially if Brazil does not pan out. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Riobard

[Riobard]

Pivoting to restrictions imposed on passengers out of Brazil (and everywhere else), by USA, Canada, etc ...

Adjusting for false negative RT-PCR test results, the probability of at least one infected passenger on a 300-person flight out of Brazil is currently about 76%; out of any location globally based on a global average of CoV case incidence, 33% probability. Adding up flight volume, albeit minuscule relative to pre-pandemic air travel norms, that’s a lot of cross-border sharing. 

These metric models drive the rationale for the new USA addition of 2-week quarantine. Canada introduced it long ago. Viral variants are nevertheless piggy-backed in. One is killing off just about an entire long-term care home north of Toronto, duelling with the initiation of vaccination. 

So, both measures, not just one or the other half-measures. The majority of travellers are not notified of cases linked to flights. 

[Riobard]

São Paulo abruptly decided to dial back the weekend restrictions. Starting this weekend it will be the regular Phase 2 Orange, not a hybrid of Phases 1 & 2. Restaurants etc permitted open every day until 20:00 hrs. Alcohol while seated, 40% capacity, blah blah blah. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Riobard

[Guest]

I really want to return to Brazil ASAP - new US guidelines now require negative Covid test 72 hours prior to board return flights.  If positive, then you’re stuck in Brazil or wherever until a negative test.  Seems more than a little dicey at the moment.And, I’ve been fully vaccinated - but still doesn’t seem worth the risk given variant unknowns, etc 

[Riobard]

1 hour ago, Slvkguy said:

I really want to return to Brazil ASAP - new US guidelines now require negative Covid test 72 hours prior to board return flights.  If positive, then you’re stuck in Brazil or wherever until a negative test.  Seems more than a little dicey at the moment.And, I’ve been fully vaccinated - but still doesn’t seem worth the risk given variant unknowns, etc 

I am treating my coronavirus vaccination the same as my one previous infection with the flavivirus dengue I experienced in Brazil a few years ago. I am also treating it as if I have had at least one SARS-CoV-2 exposure from which I recovered.

As many know, there are at least four dengue sero-types (aka strains) and consecutive exposure to the different strains inflates the possibility of more serious disease, eg systemic hemorrhagic complications. I cannot imagine enduring being sicker than the first time. The general concept behind the phenomenon of one sero-type exposure potentiating more serious illness with another later exposure is called antibody-dependent enhancement (of disease) (AED).

If you are wondering why you have not become familiar with ADE from media news cycles, I assure you that it is, nevertheless, a thing and was referenced several times in the detailed Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna FDA briefings preparatory to EUA dispositions two months ago.

The general caveat is that antibody generation from natural infection or artificial exposure (ie, inoculation) is such that floating among neutralizing antibodies and non-neutralizing but helper or innocuous antibodies are extraneous antibodies harnessed by viral particles through endless mutation cycles to facilitate capacity to infect human cells for viral replication. It is like an ‘own goal’. 

Widespread dissemination of this notion will exacerbate vaccine hesitancy. There is pretty much radio silence regarding it. It also essentially provides a legal escape clause for enforced/mandatory vaccination. And to the usual cast of nutters it sounds ‘hoaxy’. However, it is one element of the science-based narrative that underpins the importance of assiduously avoiding a SARS-CoV-2 exposure in spite of personal vaccination and until community vaccination has been successfully accomplished. 

It is known that, like for flavivirus, evolutionary ADE is plausible and possible for a CoV that proliferates throughout the global population. This phenomenon accounts for why a viable vaccination strategy for a disease as serious as dengue evades human scientific capacity, not for want of years of diligent research.

The emergence of ‘escape’ variants should be one of the red flags that alerts us to the eventual possibility that some of our many random CoV or vaxx-generated antibodies may render us vulnerable to more serious illness when exposed to new strains. It is not a guarantee this crisis will develop. It is perhaps even freakishly random that a particular set of antibodies confers Houdini-like capacity to the coronavirus. But it essentially happened with dengue, where each successive strike portends the umpire calling eventual lights out. 

The idea of vaccination passports is utterly premature hooey until this virus is controlled. Each individual hopeful delusion of robust and enduring protection fuels the potential for antibody-dependent enhanced disease down the line. 

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Riobard

[Riobard]

Correction: 2nd paragraph last line, ADE in bold (not AED)

[Guest]

had to read a couple times to process....thank you for the insight - so far, Moderna/Pfizer are indicating their vaccines are useful against variants, but not as effective as for the original strain.  Are you saying that is incorrect ?  Or, simply that we don’t know enough yet, or that there will be new strains that eventually are just going to evade vaccines ?  Moderna says a a new booster coming that will supplement and work against all variants.  While I’d normally be skeptical of such a claim, they seem to be extremely accurate and reasonable in terms of what they predict and outcomes.

and, the American press seems focused on foreign variants, yet there must be homegrown US variants already in wide circulation given US is the epicenter ?

Also hearing some theories that gay men on hiv meds/prep are less likely to get severe Covid ?  

[Riobard]

Sorry, perhaps I have created some confusion. The whole topic is very complex. There is also the problem of varying meanings for vaccine effectiveness; protection from acquiring viral infection and attenuation of degree of disease severity are not interchangeable. 

The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna research briefs data support the idea that vaccination greatly reduces acquiring symptomatic infection irrespective of severity. However, the data do not support efficacy regarding their clinically defined criteria of severe illness. In fact, proportionally across case count the placebo groups had a smaller number of cases meeting the threshold of severity. That reality is lost when the minimal preponderance of severity among those vaccinated is selectively highlighted. The fact is, you need a substantial number of infections in order to produce each single case of disease severity. 

The concept of antibody-dependent enhancement of viral infection is related but distinct from that of assessing a current vaccine’s ability to deal with new variants. I believe that the evaluation of some products’ effectiveness with (a) new coronavirus variant(s) has been done at the test-tube level but not yet in human efficacy trials. Because such a small handful of vaccine recipients in research caught the novel coronavirus, subsamples cannot be stratified across CoV variants for analysis based on the time frame prior to which the variants became more discerned, even with old blood samples standing by for additional analysis. 

What the Pfizer, Moderna, etc reports concede is that the jury remains out on whether the actual antibodies generated will lead to more serious illness upon later viral infection exposure as immunity wanes ... ADE. This is related to the idea that some antibodies may give a boost to later degree of illness severity upon exposure to essentially the same virus or a variant of that virus. If that occurs for two or more strains of the virus the problem in vaccine development is that one component may generate those problematic antibodies that exacerbate illness upon exposure to another strain or to another vaccine component that targets an alternative strain. 

Let’s take the example of Dengue-1, 2, 3, and 4. Inoculating against D-1 generates the same type of antibodies as does exposure to D-1, so the bind is that vaccination for any one sero-type risks more serious illness upon secondary exposures to alternate sero-types as much as natural exposure to infection by any sero-type does. Recall that one dengue exposure is less serious than another different strain exposure at some later point in time. These liabilities are interchangeable, hence, the challenge in creating a vaccine for broadband coverage of D1, D2, D3, D4. 

The above type of scenario, ADE, would be extremely dangerous in the context of COVID-19. It is more the long range view and less attention is given to it. But the concept is found in the fine-print of recent CoV vaccine study safety analyses, as well as immunology and virology circles contemplating it. However, it is distinct from the idea of renewed vaccination if and when immunity conferred by earlier vaccination wanes, combined with tweaking vaccines for emerging virus’ spike protein variants.

What we read about is the sequencing of variants naturally occurring due to genetic drift, population surveillance for their effects, followed by scrambling to assess vaccine efficacy wrt the variants and to ensure that the genetic encoding that triggers human immunogenicity, by tricking our immune systems to behave as if we caught the actual virus, best matches the spike protein mutations that spur variants of concern.

This is not unlike seasonal influenza vaccines being altered each year. 

There are probably more variants that can be tracked, counted, or sequenced. The ones that are identified and highlighted seem to be attributable to shifts or anomalies in contagion as assessed by epidemiological surveillance. 

In sum, the more and faster community case incidence, the more rapid mutations, the more rapid variants evolving, and so on.  As mutations naturally select for viral configurations that escape prior immunity ... the virus evolves as if prior natural infection and vaccination are similar ... ongoing proliferation among the population risks the type of scenario we definitely don’t want. Therefore, it is important that the early cohorts receiving vaccine do not catch the virus even if such a viral challenge to inoculation poses less risk at an individual clinical level. The more iterations of immune response accompanied by antibody production, the greater the chance of either ADE, virus strains that evade vaccination or against which vaccine adjustment cannot keep pace, or both.

One other possibility is that other parts of the virus find an entry point into human cells. Currently, the spike-centred receptor-binding domain is the target, blocking its capacity to unlock entry into human cells. But that is not all there is to it. 

We also have substandard vaccination being introduced into the population, one in particular upcoming in common between Brazil and Dominican Republic, all of which additively promotes the worse case scenario fallouts of greatest worry.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Riobard

[Riobard]

10 minutes ago, Riobard said:

[Delete]

Edited February 12, 2021 by Riobard

[Riobard]

2 hours ago, Slvkguy said:

(For some reason I can no longer snip a quote)

Re: antiretroviral meds and CoV...

Nope. That is absolute bunk.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Riobard

[Guest]

thanks again - all good & timely information 

[Riobard]

Correction: Probably more variants than can be tracked ... (not ‘that can be tracked ...’) 

[Riobard]

São Paulo municipality just eased restrictions a bit, from Phase 2 Orange to Phase 3 Yellow, though there’s lacking a solid basis for it epidemiologically. Places like Lagoa 40% capacity but closure extended from 20:00 to 22:00 hrs.

Its social media seems to have been silent for about 6 weeks. I wonder if that means shows and thematic activities have been suspended but the facilities otherwise operate. Perhaps, as well, some establishments are keeping their heads down and not openly advertising  in the context of ever-shifting rules. 

Edited February 20, 2021 by Riobard

[Riobard]

Gov Doria seems to be trying a bit of trade-off bargaining. In a few days a state-wide curfew commences, 23:00 - 05:00, hospital capacity again the predominant worry. 

[Riobard]

As of today (Sexta 26th), back to Phase 3 Orange. It happened quite precipitously though a bit of telegraphing ahead considering the new curfew. As this suggests closure at 20:00, it may put a damper on Fragata’’s weekend relaunch, timing of stage show, etc. 

[Riobard]

Commencing this weekend (6th March) Phase Red restrictions state-wide, only essential businesses allowed to operate.

Also more bad news on the inoculation front. A new lab study demonstrates that neither convalescent plasma from the original circulating coronavirus nor the predominant and already poorly performing by efficacy vaccine rolled out there, CoronaVac, are effectively neutralizing the P1 Manaus variant. 

CoronaVac is supplied by China’s Sinovac to 11 countries. Getting the supplies from China to Brazil has already been fraught with problems. Until Brazil’s Butantan Institute acquires production critical mass, Sinovac would need to selectively, for Brazil, alter the inactivated coronavirus vaccine component to reflect the P1 spike mutation. How predominant the P1 strain becomes in Brazil remains unclear. Other countries are very worried about it and are diligently tracking it.

Coronavac is also the primary vaccine initiated in Dominican Republic. WTF?! They have a huge contract with Sinovac. There are also contracts with Pfizer and AstraZeneca but delivery is stalled. 

[Tomcal]

Rudolfo the owner of Lagoa messaged me today and said they are closed for the next 2 weeks starting Friday! the general consensus is that after the 2 week closure businesses will reopen due pressures (i hope so as i am due to arrive in SP on the 26th!

[Riobard]

It might have to come to things like this before it’s realized and accepted that you cannot negotiate with a tiger with your head  in it’s mouth ...