Members stevenkesslar Posted November 3, 2020 Members Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) I'm posting a few very long, data-filled, and thoughtful articles recently written by two of my favorite political pundits: Ron Brownstein and Stan Greenberg. The themes of the two are similar. Mostly, it's very good news for Democrats. I'm not very worried about the Democrats losing, like I was in 2012 and 2016. This is going to be more like 2008, I think. That said, I feel none of the joy that I did in 2008. Maybe COVID-19 and a recession and death has something to do with it. But this does not feel like it is going to be a fresh beginning. It feels more like survival. Like we escaped a close brush with death. If anything, what I'm worried about now is what happens if Biden wins. Which is essentially the topic of both of these excellent articles. This first one is by Ron Brownstein: Why the 2020s Could Be as Dangerous as the 1850s Quote Winning next week would give Biden an opportunity to temper partisan hostilities and “bind up the nation’s wounds,” as Lincoln put it. But through his long career, the former vice president has not often shown the dexterity required to satisfy the ascendant left in his own party while building meaningful bridges to the other party. Nor is there much reason to believe that the Republicans remaining in Congress after a big Democratic win—a group that would be concentrated in Trump country even more than today’s GOP caucus—would have much interest in reaching back out to Biden. The 2020 election has been among the most vitriolic and divisive America has ever experienced, with the prospect of further disruption and even violence still lingering in its aftermath. But all of that may be just the opening bell for a decade that tests the nation’s cohesion like few others ever have. As my thread title says, I think a Biden victory will quickly enough serve as a reminder that Trump was more the symptom than the disease. I agree with The Economist Biden endorsement @AdamSmithposted. We'll be living with "Trumpism" for years to come. That said, we were living with "Trumpism" before anyone imagined Trump would run for President - let alone win! Hindsight being 20/20, it is clear that all those "moderate" Republicans that really didn't like Obama and by 2014 were calling him and Obamacare "evil" - or worse - just needed some dark-souled asshole scammer like President Toxic to come along and make all their worst fears, hatreds, and paranoia seem not only legitimate, but noble and patriotic. The likely scenario tomorrow is that just like in 2017 and 2018 and 2019 the part of the Republican Party, and the Independents, that can't stand any more of this hate and horror will vote for Biden and Democrats. That said, that just makes Trump go away. Not the disease itself. Brownstein is more generous with his language than me. As much as anyone, he's had his finger on the pulse for a long time. He calls Trumpism "the coalition of restoration". As opposed to the ascendant "coalition of transformation" that is likely to win tomorrow. If Biden does actually win North Carolina or Georgia or both, it will be a signal that the old politics of The South really has changed. Both states could be part of a Democratic majority for a generation. If Trump wins Iowa, which used to be a solid blue state in Presidential elections, it's more proof that places with few big cities and loads of Whites are shifting into the "coalition of restoration". But as Brownstein says, the losers will be indignant and angry. Even more than they are today. 2020, meet 1850. In this article published Nov. 2, 2016 Brownstein came closer than anyone I read in 2016 in describing how Clinton could lose - and, in fact, did lose. She was focused on the Democratic Party of the future (Georgia, Arizona, Orange County) enough that she overlooked the Democratic Party of the past. Brownstein named "Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan" as the states she needed that Hillary could lose in 2016. So had he written "Pennsylvania" instead of "Colorado" he would have nailed it perfectly. 2020 will revisit this battle between past and future. But after four years of President Toxic, it now seems like the future is ready to win. Just don't tell that to the past. Because they don't believe it. And it is really going to piss them off. After Trump, the Republican Party May Become More Extreme If Biden wins, Democrats will face a harsh political landscape. That article by Stan Greenberg hits many of the same positives and negatives. If Brownstein and Greenberg are essentially saying the same things, I think there's a good chance they are right. Add lots of other smart voices to that mix - like Axelrod, Carville, the Morning Joe crowd. The good news for Democrats is the Democrats are going to win. The bad news for Democrats is the Democrats are going to win. It will make the obstructionism and resistance that greeted Obama in 2008 look like child's play. It was amusing and sad that while I was typing this I got a call from an escort buddy, a strong Biden supporter, telling me about the vitriolic texts going back and forth today between his family members - some of whom support Biden, and some of whom support Trump. Is anyone surprised? Like me, he doesn't believe for a minute this will end after Election Day. I'm going to throw yet a third article into this mix. Because I think it touches on another important aspect of the problem of victory going forward for Democrats. This article, unlike the first two, is not particularly thoughtful in my mind. But I think it is important because it accurately reflects how a lot of Independents will feel if Biden wins. Post-Election Choice for Dems: Retaliation or Reconciliation There's a few things about this article I genuinely like. I agree with the implicit standard that reconciliation is better than retaliation. I agree the idea of governing should be you at least try to bring everyone along. And you reach out to the other side. And reaching out to the losers of course involves compromise. In the run up to 2016, and for decades prior, polls consistently showed that a majority of Democrats favored compromise. Meanwhile, a majority of Republicans favored sticking to their principles rather than compromising. Now, after four years of Trumpism, a majority of both parties see compromise as a bad word. So it's a good thing if there are people willing to speak up for compromise. That said, some of what is being proposed here is wrong, and just plain dumb. Quote Retaliation for Democrats would entail a full-throttled, comprehensive attempt, using every available executive and legislative power, to advance a liberal agenda. Blue power would be consolidated by forming a Cabinet constructed to unite Biden’s party rather than the country, perhaps by appointing Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to high level positions ... Worse, choosing the vengeful, partisan path would hasten the tortuous ruin of our federal government. So, what might reconciliation look like? In the executive branch, it starts with President Biden forming a Cabinet designed to increase national unity rather than party loyalty. Imagine a Secretary of State Mitt Romney or Veterans Affairs Secretary Martha McSally. In Congress, a good beginning would be replacing Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi as Senate majority leader and speaker of the House. There’s too much bad blood between the Republicans and the two of them to allow any real chance of reconciliation. Silly me. I apparently had the very misinformed idea that my favorite 2020 candidate, Elizabeth Warren, would make a great Treasury Secretary under Biden. Not because she'll usher in socialism. But because had she been Treasury Secretary in 2005 or 2006 she would have done everything in her power to crush the balls of the rich white male predatory lenders. We wouldn't want that kind of radicalism, would we? In fact, what real American would even seriously consider "confiscating" the hard earned wealth of the "job producers" through higher taxes on the very rich, like Biden himself proposes? If that's not socialism, then what is? Needless to say, if I'm wrong and Trump wins it is of course certain that within 24 hours Ricj Mitch will resign as Senate Majority Leader and ask Joe Manchin or Mark Kelly to take his place. Not that Mitch isn't the greatest guy in the world. But somehow Democrats have this silly idea that he is a roadblock to compromise. It's just ridiculous to suggest that the standard for a Democratic win should be hiring Romney and McSally, and firing Pelosi and Schumer. Just like when we won wars before, we made sure generals like General Grant and General Eisenhower got nowhere near power, right? It's important to make the winners suffer, right? The reason this article still rings very true to me is that I was hired by people like this for years. At least the ones I know are smart, powerful, and driven. There is absolutely no way in hell they would take their own political advice when it came to doing things like running their own businesses. They don't view competitors as people you make Chair of the Board. They view them as people you grind into dust, and annihilate if possible. Maybe that's why they have such an unrealistic view of how politics really works. What they suggest is good for Washington DC has little to do with how they actually operate in the real worlds they live in - at least in my experience. That said, I posted the article because it rings true. Biden and Democrats will be greeted with total obstruction and resistance by the losers. And many of the people in the middle, like this author, will have standards like the ones he describes. Meaning standards Biden can't possibly meet. My read of it is that they are already predisposed to be disappointed. And vote against Biden in 2022, just like they voted against Obama in 2010. And Rich Mitch will play to them. His argument will be that he wakes up every morning with only one goal: to seek compromise with Democrats. At least the very few Democrats who don't wake up every morning with horrific new plans to turn America into a socialist hell. Had I gotten my wish, and we were about to elect President Warren, I think she would have won. I think Allan Lichtman will prove to be right again. This election is a referendum on President Toxic. Which he will lose . Period. Almost any Democrat, including Warren, could have won, I believe. Had she won, what I would worry about is how Warren (or Sanders) could get 50 votes, even with a Democratic Senate, for anything she really viewed as good policy. So that may be the saving grace of Joe Biden, which I understand and appreciate. He won't be overly concerned with good policy. I think he will be smart enough to be overly concerned with getting shit done. And getting the 50 votes to get it done. Biden will at least try to create the impression that he genuinely wants to bring everyone along. And reach out to the other side. I think that may be one of the best explanations for why Biden flopped in his past races for President, and hit it right in 2020. You can't bullshit a sincere and lifelong interest in compromise and civility. With Biden it appears to be the way he has lived, and legislated. That may be one of the best things going for Democrats as we face the obstruction and resistance and rage that is going to greet us in victory. Edited November 3, 2020 by stevenkesslar TotallyOz and AdamSmith 2 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted November 3, 2020 Members Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: I'm posting a few very long, data-filled, and thoughtful articles recently written by two of my favorite political pundits: Ron Brownstein and Stan Greenberg. The themes of the two are similar. Mostly, it's very good news for Democrats. I'm not very worried about the Democrats losing, like I was in 2012 and 2016. This is going to be more like 2008, I think. That said, I feel none of the joy that I did in 2008. Maybe COVID-19 and a recession and death has something to do with it. But this does not feel like it is going to be a fresh beginning. It feels more like survival. Like we escaped a close brush with death. If anything, what I'm worried about now is what happens if Biden wins. Which is essentially the topic of both of these excellent articles. This first one is by Ron Brownstein: Why the 2020s Could Be as Dangerous as the 1850s As my thread title says, I think a Biden victory will quickly enough serve as a reminder that Trump was more the symptom than the disease. I agree with The Economist Biden endorsement @AdamSmithposted. We'll be living with "Trumpism" for years to come. That said, we were living with "Trumpism" before anyone imagined Trump would run for President - let alone win! Hindsight being 20/20, it is clear that all those "moderate" Republicans that really didn't like Obama and by 2014 were calling him and Obamacare "evil" - or worse - just needed some dark-souled asshole scammer like President Toxic to come along and make all their worst fears, hatreds, and paranoia seem not only legitimate, but noble and patriotic. The likely scenario tomorrow is that just like in 2017 and 2018 and 2019 the part of the Republican Party, and the Independents, that can't stand any more of this hate and horror will vote for Biden and Democrats. That said, that just makes Trump go away. Not the disease itself. Brownstein is more generous with his language than me. As much as anyone, he's had his finger on the pulse for a long time. He calls Trumpism "the coalition of restoration". As opposed to the ascendant "coalition of transformation" that is likely to win tomorrow. If Biden does actually win North Carolina or Georgia or both, it will be a signal that the old politics of The South really has changed. Both states could be part of a Democratic majority for a generation. If Trump wins Iowa, which used to be a solid blue state in Presidential elections, it's more proof that places with few big cities and loads of Whites are shifting into the "coalition of restoration". But as Brownstein says, the losers will be indignant and angry. Even more than they are today. 2020, meet 1850. In this article published Nov. 2, 2016 Brownstein came closer than anyone I read in 2016 in describing how Clinton could lose - and, in fact, did lose. She was focused on the Democratic Party of the future (Georgia, Arizona, Orange County) enough that she overlooked the Democratic Party of the past. Brownstein named "Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan" as the states she needed that Hillary could lose in 2016. So had he written "Pennsylvania" instead of "Colorado" he would have nailed it perfectly. 2020 will revisit this battle between past and future. But after four years of President Toxic, it now seems like the future is ready to win. Just don't tell that to the past. Because they don't believe it. And it is really going to piss them off. After Trump, the Republican Party May Become More Extreme If Biden wins, Democrats will face a harsh political landscape. That article by Stan Greenberg hits many of the same positives and negatives. If Brownstein and Greenberg are essentially saying the same things, I think there's a good chance they are right. Add lots of other smart voices to that mix - like Axelrod, Carville, the Morning Joe crowd. The good news for Democrats is the Democrats are going to win. The bad news for Democrats is the Democrats are going to win. It will make the obstructionism and resistance that greeted Obama in 2008 look like child's play. It was amusing and sad that while I was typing this I got a call from an escort buddy, a strong Biden supporter, telling me about the vitriolic texts going back and forth today between his family members - some of whom support Biden, and some of whom support Trump. Is anyone surprised? Like me, he doesn't believe for a minute this will end after Election Day. I'm going to throw yet a third article into this mix. Because I think it touches on another important aspect of the problem of victory going forward for Democrats. This article, unlike the first two, is not particularly thoughtful in my mind. But I think it is important because it accurately reflects how a lot of Independents will feel if Biden wins. Post-Election Choice for Dems: Retaliation or Reconciliation There's a few things about this article I genuinely like. I agree with the implicit standard that reconciliation is better than retaliation. I agree the idea of governing should be you at least try to bring everyone along. And you reach out to the other side. And reaching out to the losers of course involves compromise. In the run up to 2016, and for decades prior, polls consistently showed that a majority of Democrats favored compromise. Meanwhile, a majority of Republicans favored sticking to their principles rather than compromising. Now, after four years of Trumpism, a majority of both parties see compromise as a bad word. So it's a good thing if there are people willing to speak up for compromise. That said, some of what is being proposed here is wrong, and just plain dumb. Silly me. I apparently had the very misinformed idea that my favorite 2020 candidate, Elizabeth Warren, would make a great Treasury Secretary under Biden. Not because she'll usher in socialism. But because had she been Treasury Secretary in 2005 or 2006 she would have done everything in her power to crush the balls of the rich white male predatory lenders. We wouldn't want that kind of radicalism, would we? In fact, what real American would even seriously consider "confiscating" the hard earned wealth of the "job producers" through higher taxes on the very rich, like Biden himself proposes? If that's not socialism, then what is? Needless to say, if I'm wrong and Trump wins it is of course certain that within 24 hours Ricj Mitch will resign as Senate Majority Leader and ask Joe Manchin or Mark Kelly to take his place. Not that Mitch isn't the greatest guy in the world. But somehow Democrats have this silly idea that he is a roadblock to compromise. It's just ridiculous to suggest that the standard for a Democratic win should be hiring Romney and McSally, and firing Pelosi and Schumer. Just like when we won wars before, we made sure generals like General Grant and General Eisenhower got nowhere near power, right? It's important to make the winners suffer, right? The reason this article still rings very true to me is that I was hired by people like this for years. At least the ones I know are smart, powerful, and driven. There is absolutely no way in hell they would take their own political advice when it came to doing things like running their own businesses. They don't view competitors as people you make Chair of the Board. They view them as people you grind into dust, and annihilate if possible. Maybe that's why they have such an unrealistic view of how politics really works. What they suggest is good for Washington DC has little to do with how they actually operate in the real worlds they live in - at least in my experience. That said, I posted the article because it rings true. Biden and Democrats will be greeted with total obstruction and resistance by the losers. And many of the people in the middle, like this author, will have standards like the ones he describes. Meaning standards Biden can't possibly meet. My read of it is that they are already predisposed to be disappointed. And vote against Biden in 2022, just like they voted against Obama in 2010. And Rich Mitch will play to them. His argument will be that he wakes up every morning with only one goal: to seek compromise with Democrats. At least the very few Democrats who don't wake up every morning with horrific new plans to turn America into a socialist hell. Had I gotten my wish, and we were about to elect President Warren, I think she would have won. I think Allan Lichtman will prove to be right again. This election is a referendum on President Toxic. Which he will lose . Period. Almost any Democrat, including Warren, could have won, I believe. Had she won, what I would worry about is how Warren (or Sanders) could get 50 votes, even with a Democratic Senate, for anything she really viewed as good policy. So that may be the saving grace of Joe Biden, which I understand and appreciate. He won't be overly concerned with good policy. I think he will be smart enough to be overly concerned with getting shit done. And getting the 50 votes to get it done. Biden will at least try to create the impression that he genuinely wants to bring everyone along. And reach out to the other side. I think that may be one of the best explanations for why Biden flopped in his past races for President, and hit it right in 2020. You can't bullshit a sincere and lifelong interest in compromise and civility. With Biden it appears to be the way he has lived, and legislated. That may be one of the best things going for Democrats as we face the obstruction and resistance and rage that is going to greet us in victory. Well, Sis, its the BIG day..... Glad to see you surface, whatever the outcome, but lets hope we will be dancing and clicking our Loubatins ? I am a stressed out bundle of anxiety, and just want the Nightmare on Trump Street to be OVER, so we can move forward with getting rid of this fucking Covid shit and have some decency again. I want to go back to a time when every minute of EVERY fucking day wasnt consumed by Trump and his inept and corrupt family. I want to eat my morning bagel and read news that DOESNT involve TRUMP (unless its that he was convicted of Presidential crimes and is going to JAIL) ..... Whatever Biden and Harris can bring us HAS TO BE BETTER than a Trump administration....Let's REALLY round the corner, and kick Trump to the Curb..... See you on the other side ! Edited November 3, 2020 by Suckrates stevenkesslar and SexyAsianStud 1 1 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted November 5, 2020 Author Members Posted November 5, 2020 (edited) I'll keep my powder dry on the election outcome until we get decisive results. As of now, it's looking like Biden will have Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania locked up by Thursday. Wouldn't it be odd if the one state he lost was Nevada? Nobody knows. But it ain't looking good for soon to be ex-President Toxic. In the meantime, I thought this was a nice essay by Politico's John Harris that works some of the same themes about the American house divided I described above. Election night proved me more right than I wish to be. Biden will win. But he will govern a deeply divided nation. Democrats Look at Trump Voters and Wonder ‘What the Hell Is Your Problem?’ A narrow victory for either side does not fundamentally alter the country’s unstable political balance. It's interesting that both sides agree on much of the diagnosis. One of the less rabid anchors on Fox had a commentator on tonight, a conservative professor, who stated just what I did above. Trump is the symptom of deep national division, not the cause. Interestingly, Claire McCaskill was saying much the same on MSNBC tonight, and on social media today. They both credited many of the same things: "cultural" issues from abortion to same sex marriage, religious versus secular values, and other deeply felt moral issues that divided America deeply. As the Fox pundit pointed out, it's no coincidence that the small percentage of Blacks who support Trump tend to be deeply religiously conservative people. Which is to say that these divisions are not going away - not anymore than racism or Jim Crow did after the Civil War. For many, not all, they are based on identity, values, religion. These aren't John's exact words in his essay above. But I think 2020 proved that for many Trump is very much now part of their identity and value system. This isn't about negotiating about whether tax rates go up for people who make more than $500,000, or people who make more than $1 million. Compromise on abortion and whether Gays should be able to marry is not very easy. This is being lived and fought like a battle for "cultural" survival. I'm quite sure many Trumpians think if Trump goes, the America they love goes with him. So let's not be too polite about this. These are the people that don't want Gay marriage. These are the people who don't want abortion. These are the overwhelmingly White people who think racism is Blacks saying "Black Lives Matter". These are the people who say that liberty means no government lockdowns, never having to wear a mask, but being able to own as many AR-15's as you damn well choose. At core, that is the America they believe in, and are fighting for. Not everybody who voted for Trump feels this way. But many do. That is why we are, and will be, a house divided. Poltico had a headline yesterday saying this: "Joe Biden looks screwed even if he wins." That's true enough. I have some contrary thoughts to it I'll share once we know for sure Biden actually won. But it will be difficult for Biden to govern an America this divided. That said, I think the Republicans are even more screwed. Holding on to a 51 or 52 seat Senate majority is not a victory. So if they did well, it's only in relation to Democratic expectations that did not play out as grandly as hoped. The Morning Joe crowd, who has all the top Republicans and Democrats on speed dial, made this point very well. Had the US repudiated Trump and Trumpism, it would have allowed the Republican Party to move on to something that is not an ever deeper slog into ever shallower waters. If you don't know, Republicans, losing the Presidency by millions of votes is NOT an indicator that you have a majority. In fact, you don't. And since Biden did even better than Hillary among young voters, your prospects will likely be worse in 2022 and 2024. There are only so many Cuban Americans you can work into a frenzy to replace dying White men. The opportunity to abandon Trumpism is now gone - even if Trump is gone, as well. Poor Republicans! That's kind of fucked up, I think. You don't get a majority. Or The White House. But you do get Trump being viewed as a martyr and a hero, with a base that is a majority of Republicans now that loves their Trumpism red and raw. Even as it sends a majority of America into the arms of Joe Biden. Biden may have a very hard time sustaining the 50 % + of America that voted for him. But given how they have now defined the core values and beliefs of their party, I think Republicans will have an even worse time. One more point about majorities. I remember what it was like to be a Democrat that lost by landslides in 1980 and 1984. I also remember what it was like to be a Democrat that won a majority in 2000 and 2016, and still had to "lose". So I feel like I get what majorities are, and what democracy requires. So it might help if Republicans could admit it was a fact that Joe Biden won a vast majority of Americans - even more than Clinton. She had a 2 % margin over Trump and 3 million votes or so. Biden will likely end up with 3 % + over Trump and 4 million votes plus. Like Obama, he will have over 50 % of voters. And 50 % + of voters in the largest turnout US election ever. So for soon-to-be-ex President Toxic and Sean Hannity to be using a vocabulary centered on words like "fraud", "corruption", "stealing the election." and "we did win" is just bullshit. If the Republicans think we Democrats or Independents are prepared to buy this, or pander to it, or accept it as fact, they really have no clue why they just lost. If you add what John Harris, Claire McCaskill, Michael Steele, and even some people on Fox are saying together, it means there should be opportunities for Democrats to pick off pieces of the former Trump coalition in the next few years. I'll hold my thoughts on that until we know in a few days that Biden is President-Elect. Edited November 5, 2020 by stevenkesslar Quote
Members RockHardNYC Posted November 5, 2020 Members Posted November 5, 2020 10 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: I'll keep my powder dry on the election outcome until we get decisive results. The mood on NYC streets is fascinating. Granted, the weather is incredible, but there's a buzz in the air, and you see and hear lots of people talking about Biden's chances. Strangers talking with other strangers. The rat seems cornered. As usual, his behavior is despicable and utterly transparent. The press conference with Eric Trump and Giuliani was worth its weight in vomit. The articles Kesslar posted are worth a read. A Biden win will not make life any easier in America. Forceful evil will still exist. McConnell and Graham are still in the senate. No serious down-ballot victory. America has deep-rooted problems that may take generations to fix. A lot of racist assholes need to die first. Even so, Biden stands a chance to heal this nation. I believe he will attempt to unite. Biden will not play bully. The world will be a lot better place when the TROLL dies, or at least no longer holds the presidency. stevenkesslar and SexyAsianStud 2 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted November 5, 2020 Author Members Posted November 5, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, RockHardNYC said: A Biden win will not make life any easier in America. Forceful evil will still exist. McConnell and Graham are still in the senate. No serious down-ballot victory. America has deep-rooted problems that may take generations to fix. A lot of racist assholes need to die first. You're an honorary Black today. What strikes me having non-stop channel flipped between CNN, MSNBC, and Fox for two days is the almost overwhelming reactions of Blacks. And it sounds a lot like what you just wrote. And by "Blacks" I mean everybody from known liberals like Van Jones to known Republicans like former RNC head Michael Steele. The polls bear out that they speak for maybe in the ballpark of 90 % of Black America. I think Bakari Sellers said it most succinctly and poignantly. He expressed the initial big sense of disappointment that it turns out America really isn't ready to repudiate Trumpism, or the racist views embedded in it. He spun it from the angle of a Black man talking about race. But as a White Democrat, I feel much the same. It was a big disappointment. But the next thing Sellers said, again speaking explicitly as a Black man, is there is no surprise here at all. None whatsoever. I agree with him. Several other Black pundits took it further and talked about the fact that Blacks of all people understand this is a long slog. Ask John Lewis. These days the fight is no longer whether you get your head bashed in on a bridge marching for the right to vote. It's about whether you can be Rev. Warnock or Stacey Abrams and be elected Senator or Governor of Georgia. It's a better America for Blacks than the one John Lewis lived in and fought in. Thanks to Blacks like John Lewis. Again, let's not be too polite here. When racist President Toxic says stop counting the vote, he is explicitly saying that the votes of Blacks in Philadelphia and Latinos in Phoenix should not be counted. He is saying "FUCK YOU LOSERS" to people of color who don't like having immigrant kids thrown in cages, and efforts to demonize and take away "Obamacare". That is what is driving what is happening in Arizona and Georgia. So Trump and Republicans can pretend they are the very beating heart of Black America and Latino America. All that says is they are delusional racist liars who don't have a fucking clue why they just lost. Go on denying, guys. It means you'll lose more. In fairness, there's the Black and Latino crowd on Fox, including the very poised and smart sounding Latina that just took Donna Shalala out in Florida. They talk about a hope that the Republican Party will become a truly working class party that welcomes in Black and Latino working class masses. And that does appear to be what happened in one specific area: Dade County. Thanks in part to Republicans whipping up a frenzy about socialism. But it did not win them the Presidency. And it may have lost them Georgia and Arizona for a long time. That's a pretty shitty trade off. You can argue that more Latinos in Texas voted for Trumpism than some Democrats hoped. But guess what? Nobody should be surprised. I'm waiting to post about what happens AFTER the election until we really know the results of the election. As of now my guess is in California we held every House seat Democrats won in 2018, and we will flip back the House seat Garcia won in the special election last year after Katie Hill resigned. So if there was backsliding, it was in a few districts in Trump America - Iowa, Oklahoma, Cuban American parts of Florida. That's no real surprise. In Georgia Lucy McBath won handily. And it looks like Carolyn Bordeaux will flip another formerly red Atlanta suburban seat that hasn't gone blue since 1994. Again, it's a long slog. I love the idea that in January 2021 Blacks in Georgia will be told this: THE FUTURE OF ALL OF AMERICA DEPENDS ON YOUR VOTE. I say that because whether Democrats have 48 Senate seats and a minority or 50 and a majority will likely depend on that January special election in Georgia. And if I were writing the script for the reality TV version, I'd put right in the middle of that debate somebody like the Black pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church, and an articulate White liberal Jew who speaks powerfully to the aspirations of the emerging new Georgia. From a narrative perspective, it just doesn't get better than that for Democrats, I think. We may lose both Georgia Senate seats 51 to 49. But if there was any confusion about whether Black votes matter, that election will clarify it. If there was any confusion about whether coalition politics matters, that election will clarify it. If there was any confusion about whether Donald Trump is the beating heart of Black hope in America, and Fox News is the very voice of Black and Latino aspiration, that election will clarify it. We may lose those January 2021 special elections narrowly. History suggests we will. But when you consider that Lucy McBath sits in Newt Gingrich's old seat, and Blacks in Atlanta and Philadelphia and Latinos in Phoenix are about to hand The White House to Biden and Harris, let's not be confused about just how well Trumpism is doing. So let Republicans crush Rev. Warnock and Jon Ossoff. Let them piss all over the living legacy of MLK. And then let Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson explain to us again how Trump and Trumpism is the voice of Black America. Rather than the voice of racism in America. I'm listening, you old White guys. A majority of America rejected Trump, and Trumpism. Period. Edited November 5, 2020 by stevenkesslar Quote
Members SexyAsianStud Posted November 5, 2020 Members Posted November 5, 2020 3 hours ago, RockHardNYC said: The mood on NYC streets is fascinating. Granted, the weather is incredible, but there's a buzz in the air, and you see and hear lots of people talking about Biden's chances. Strangers talking with other strangers. The rat seems cornered. As usual, his behavior is despicable and utterly transparent. The press conference with Eric Trump and Giuliani was worth its weight in vomit. The articles Kesslar posted are worth a read. A Biden win will not make life any easier in America. Forceful evil will still exist. McConnell and Graham are still in the senate. No serious down-ballot victory. America has deep-rooted problems that may take generations to fix. A lot of racist assholes need to die first. Even so, Biden stands a chance to heal this nation. I believe he will attempt to unite. Biden will not play bully. The world will be a lot better place when the TROLL dies, or at least no longer holds the presidency. The only places I have heard talk of Democratic mis-deeds such as stealing the election are the snippets from FOX NEWS posted on progressive news sites and on the conduit for Trump press releases, the Daddy's site. Both irrelevant, both ridiculous, both dedicated to the destruction of a functioning democratic process. TotallyOz and stevenkesslar 1 1 Quote
Members RockHardNYC Posted November 5, 2020 Members Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said: A majority of America rejected Trump, and Trumpism. Except the margins are frighteningly thin. Much too thin for a unhealthy democracy, teetering near the brink of extinction. Trumpism won't end with the orange orangutan's demise. The ugly pussy has been let out of the bag, and there is no putting him back inside. Populist, racist nut-cases will aggressively rise, staking claim in the Republican Party. All you need is a handsome and charismatic White-Nationalist Fascist, and White grievance will go ape-shit. Trump opened that door, and he showed everyone that it's possible now. The network analysis is fascinating. Ana Navarro's take on the Latino vote in Florida had me spellbound. She was oh-so-careful with her words, because she knows the personality of Latinos. She did not want to invite death threats. The Latino vote in Florida for Trump is shameful. However, some pundits need to be shot. Or at least fired. I fast-forward through many of the talking heads. I've been glued to the analysis of The Lincoln Project. As former (and existing conservatives), their reaction has been mind blowing. They are very scared for America's future. After all that money, production value, and endless hours spent on building a movement, they were clearly not prepared for the intensity of Trumpism that this election reveals. In many ways, the work is just beginning. The defeat of Trumpism is going to require a lot more diligence and determination. I hope progressive voters have what it takes to keep up this fight. The road forward is not going to be easy. stevenkesslar and SexyAsianStud 2 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted November 5, 2020 Author Members Posted November 5, 2020 (edited) There's one other subject I want to post about now as a separate point. Directly above was a diatribe about race and the racism of Trump. But this post is about "it's the economy, stupid." That is what the polls are saying to me explains what happened - or didn't happen - on Tuesday. Here's a NYT national exit poll, and a Fox News Pennsylvania exit poll. I'd strongly suggest everybody take 15 minutes to look over both. There will be even more protests about the validity of polling after Tuesday. The reality is that pollsters did overestimate how well TRUMP would do - if you refer to Trafalgar. Their polls said Trump would win Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania handily. Oops! Of course, most polls said BIDEN would do better than he did. But everybody was obviously guessing about how big turnout would be and who would actually vote. So what everybody should now get is that polls are not crystal balls. They are based on a set of assumptions made by imperfect people. This election again vindicated Allan Lichtman's view that people vote based on fundamentals, not stupid ads. And the two fundamentals he pointed to in predicting why Trump would lose were: 1) the economy, stupid, and 2) the social unrest which more than anything was a reaction to the racism of Trump's America. All the evidence from both polls suggest that this is at the core of what drove voting in Pennsylvania and nationally. It is likely why Biden will win Georgia and Arizona, I think. I'll bring up these polls and other better exit polls that will likely emerge in the weeks and months ahead in future posts. There's a lot of great data in them. But for now I'll just focus on the economy in these two polls. That NYT exit poll says that when asked the "are you better off?" question, 41 % of Americans who just voted said they are "better off" than they were four years ago. They voted for Trump overwhelmingly, 72 to 25. By comparison, the 20 % of Americans who said they are "worse off" than four years ago voted against Trump and for Biden 74 to 23. The 38 % who said "the same" voted against Trump and for Biden 64 to 33. I think it's helpful to do a comparison to the exact same question in 2016 from this CNN exit poll. 31 % of Americans said they were better off than four years ago in 2016. And they voted for CLINTON and against Trump 72 to 23. The 27 % who said they were worse off voted for TRUMP and against Clinton 77 to 19. And the 25 % who said "the same" voted for CLINTON, 54 to 38. So it's clear, people who said they were worse off voted overwhelmingly against the incumbent party in both 2016 and 2020. People who felt better off voted overwhelmingly for the incumbent party in both 2016 and 2020. The one difference between 2016 and 2020 is that people who said things were the same as four years ago were a much larger group in 2020 than 2016. Unlike in 2016, they voted against the incumbent in 2020. Since 2016 and 2020 both involved Trump, they essentially seemed to decide, "You promised to make the economy better, and you didn't - for me at least. So you lose." This all goes to the core of Allan Lichtman's (and Jim Carville's) theories. It's the economy, stupid. People vote on that, not stupid ads. So there is no surprise that people who feel better off voted overwhelmingly for the incumbent party in both 2016 and 2020. That may explain why people who are relatively affluent, or seniors who are sitting on a nice nest egg in a nice home, didn't end up repudiating Trump in the way some Democrats hoped. But young people - who by the way are mostly not big fans of Joe Biden but are struggling - did vote against Trump in a way that has assured the end of his Presidency. What is a bit surprising is that in the middle of a pandemic and recession there are MORE people that fell better off than four years ago in 2020 (41 % of Americans) than in 2016 (31 %). Based on that alone, it suggests Trump should have won - not lost. I question whether all these people that say they are better off really could prove that with bank statements, paychecks, and net worth. But whether they are really better off or not, that goes to my point. We've known all through the pandemic that polls suggested that the one thing Trump had going for him was this view that he was good for the economy. At the end of the day, that's probably what helped him almost pull through. That's what these polls say to me. Combine that with a wildly inflammatory message that Harris is a surrogate warrior for Black socialist America that will turn the US into the next Cuba, and you may do better in places like Miami Dade than expected. Again, it doesn't seem to win you Arizona or Georgia, though. It will win you Montana and Iowa. But if you understand that old White people from rural and small town America like their Trumpism red and raw, who could possibly be surprised by that anymore? I sent money to Bullock and Greenfield knowing that Iowa and Montana were almost certainly lost causes. This election confirmed I was right. You can now perhaps add them to the list of states that will vote for Trump's vision of America moving backward for a long time. Oh, and Biden cut Clinton's 2016 margin of defeat in Texas by almost half. Jeff Flake endorsed Biden saying that as a conservative Republican he worries that by 2024 Texas could go blue due to Trumpism. 2020 does not suggest Flake is wrong. It simply suggests that 2020 is not yet 2024. There is no way you can read the results of Texas as saying that Texas is moving in the direction of Trump and Trumpism. I'd read it as saying that Texas may be the next Georgia or Arizona. The same trends are pulling it towards Democrats - not Republicans. Just like they are pulling Iowa and Montana toward Trumpism. As a Democrat, I'd rather have Georgia and Arizona and Texas than Iowa and Montana. Nothing against "Iowa nice", of course. But there's a reason Steve King did well in Iowa for a very long time. Even in bluer Georgia, they just managed to create a House Q Anon caucus. Back to the polls, there's one other economic question that I think should be elevated, dealing with class. The 28 % of Americans who make over $100,000 a year voted for Trump 54 to 43, according to the Times survey. A majority of the other 72 % of Americans voted for Biden, by a roughly 57 to 43 margin. So that is incredibly clear. If you are the relatively well off, you voted for Trump. If you are "the little guy" or "the little girl", you voted for Biden. If you are a member of a union, more likely than not you voted for Biden, the polls say. So there will be all this rhetoric about how Trump is the blue collar billionaire. And how Democrats are the party of the elite and filthy rich. And how the Trump tax cuts and the stock market really benefit the have nots more than the rich. But it is total bullshit. And most voters know that. I included that Pennsylvania poll because it is a Fox poll. And it's of THE key swing state. I think it backs up everything in the NYT poll of all America. The one very important thing Trump pushed that clearly helped him was this view that he is better for "the economy". When asked directly in the Fox poll who they thought would handle "the economy" better, 50 % of Pennsylvania voters said Trump, 40 % said Biden, and the rest said both or neither. If they were ONLY voting on "the economy", I have to believe Trump would be about to win Pennsylvania and The Presidency. Not about to lose it. To understand why he is about to lose, read both polls. He loses on almost everything else. Handling the coronavirus. Health care. Support for extremist groups. Racism. An inability to unify Americans. A drive to divide Americans. Abortion. Global warming. People are basically with Biden and Democrats on all those issues. The Democrats are going to have to have a long debate about "economic populism". Or it might be better to call it by a name it had in US history: "prairie populism". I say that because the "prairie populist" tradition is how Democrats did well before, and maybe could do well in the future, in places like Minnesota and Iowa and Montana. It involves a relentless economic focus on the economic well being of the little guy and little girl. Which is what Trump says he is all about. The reality is that Trump is all about tax cuts to the rich and his own ego and power. The polls suggest most of America gets that. The well off vote for him. The people who are truly hurting voted against him. If Democrats want to peel off parts of the Trump coalition, that is where Democrats need to go. This should not be a surprise. It has been the # 1 weapon of Democrats ever since there was a Democratic Party. It is why a decade of trying to take out Reagan Republican Senators in Minnesota in the 1980's failed. I watched it while I was a college student, and while my friends who stayed in Minnesota after college climbed the ranks of liberal activist organizations. Nothing worked, until a populist like Paul Wellstone came along and convinced a majority of Minnesotans that Rudy Boschwitz wasn't really a blue collar millionaire. He was just a rich White guy that voted for the interests of other rich White guys like him. Amy Klobuchar is not what I would call a Wellstone Democrat. But she is smart to always mention Paul and his legacy. While she may not be the biggest populist in America, she is good at using populist language. I think it helps to explain her political success in Minnesota. For me, that is where the Democratic Party needs to go if we want to win a majority. I think this election confirmed it. We have won the culture wars. We are winning on most issues - like health care, abortion, Gay marriage, global warming. Biden gets that. He does laugh out loud when a reporter asks him about wealth taxes. I get it. As a guy who came to power in the Reagan Era, that's political suicide. Even though today getting Jeff Bezos and Amazon to pay more taxes is a wildly popular idea - even with Republicans. Biden is pushing for higher income taxes on the very well off. If Rich Mitch is Senate Majority Leader, even that may be off the table until at least 2022. The battle moving forward will be to deprive Trump and Trumpism of the opportunity to claim that they stand economically for the little guy or the little girl - whether they are Black or White or Latina. That is what the election results say to me. That is what Claire McCaskill has been shouting on social media. She should know. This is why she lost in 2018, and why Missouri is now a red state. If we Democrats ever hope to take back Missouri or now Iowa or Montana, that is where we will need to go, I believe. The very important thing that just happened is that we decapitated the snake. Unlike in a horror film, it will not just grow back. Even Trump himself gets that, which is why he slithered into the White House residence his sorry ass will soon have to vacate. He is hiding and pouting and saying epically stupid shit that will send him straight to the hell section of all the history books to be written for centuries. He is a bad loser. He is a bad person. That is why he just lost. Edited November 5, 2020 by stevenkesslar TotallyOz 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted November 5, 2020 Members Posted November 5, 2020 (edited) The big problem in America remains that close to 50% of the country were willing to overlook ALL of Trumps mis-deeds, rants, and corruption. How you you justify THAT ? I dont believe these are all BAD people, but misguided perhaps, broken, or simply just not able to comprehend that they were simply used as props for the current President for his re-election, and beyond that, he doesnt give a single Fuck about them, their lives or livelihoods.... They are the epitome of cult members, blindly following a sick and corrupt leader who only wants Power and admiration. Even if Trump loses, the mark he left on America and this segment of the country will not fade easily. With Trump, they were birds that were set free and allowed to demonstrate with HIS support everything that is wrong and inhumane without consequence. His MAGA cry should be a MAWA cry (Make America WHITE again) , because in essence that seems the real goal here. And I do believe that ANY person of color that supports Trumps rhetoric and agenda is seriously flawed and misguided and is doing an injustice to their race. If Biden wins, he is faced with an almost impossible task of winning over 50% of Americans that cant, wont or refuse to give up their new found freedoms. This election has shown us the TRUE face of America. Edited November 5, 2020 by Suckrates stevenkesslar, TotallyOz and SexyAsianStud 3 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted November 6, 2020 Author Members Posted November 6, 2020 (edited) 22 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: So there will be all this rhetoric about how Trump is the blue collar billionaire. And how Democrats are the party of the elite and filthy rich. And how the Trump tax cuts and the stock market really benefit the have nots more than the rich. But it is total bullshit. And most voters know that. I wanted to add something I heard on Fox yesterday to reinforce this point. i was mostly watching Fox to hear their spin on President Toxic's alleged but completely unproven theories about election fraud. In some discussion, one of the Fox business reporters was asked to explain why the stock market is rallying so strongly this week. Her answer was that investors like the idea of gridlock. Biden, even if elected, likely won't be able to raise taxes on corporations or wealthy individuals. Or do anything about health care, she said. Which is to say that what Wall Street investors want is NOT what the vast majority of American voters want. To cite the Fox poll of Pennsylvania voters above, 72 % of voters in Pennsylvania favor "changing the system so that any American can buy into a government-run health care plan if they want to." It looks like Biden will win Pennsylvania about 51/49. So that tells us almost half of voters who JUST VOTED for President Toxic support what could be branded as a "socialist" health care system, in that it is "government-run." This is what Wall Street is apparently breathing a sigh of relief about. They don't have to worry about this for now, they hope. This particular poll doesn't ask about tax policy. But there are mountains of polls from 2020 that show overwhelming support - including often among a majority of Republicans - for things like wealth taxes on the ultra-rich, or higher income taxes on corporations like Amazon or mega-rich individuals like Jeff Bezos. Again, Wall Street investors are happy to not have to deal with that, they are at least hoping. Wall Street is not Main Street, or America. I've been watching more Fox than usual this week. So Sean Hannity or any of these people will preach with a straight face as if it's really true that Democrats are the party of Wall Street, and the Republicans are the party of Blacks or Latinos. They are so full of shit that it is pouring out of their mouths. The history of this is very clear, and it has been for as long as there have been Democrats, I think. There is always going to be a segment of "Democrats" that don't like gun control, don't like Gay marriage, don't like all kinds of "cultural" or social issues or racial issues a majority of Democrats support. The district Colin Peterson just lost in Minnesota is a great example of that. On social issues, Peterson essentially talked and voted like a Republican, even though he was a Democrat. So now having a real Republican in that seat makes almost no difference on social issues. And that does in fact represent the views of people in that mostly rural district. But Peterson survived despite Trump and Trumpism because he worked the themes of economic populism. One of the very good pieces of news is that most of the toxicity of race is now gone, at least within the Democratic Party. Most Democrats, and a big chunk of Republicans, mostly agree with the goals of Black Lives Matter. We want to keep making progress on rooting out systemic racism, which we believe is a real thing. Progressive Democrats have a choice to make. We can have purity and AOC. But that also means we can't have a majority. We just got a perfect example of that in these House districts that are moderate. Two of the House districts in Orange County that Democrats won 51/49 in 2018 - Cisneros and Rouda - may be ones we lose this time 51/49. It's too early to tell. And in Orange County, the former heart of Reagan Republicanism, you have to be careful any time you use the word "tax". But I made a point to check the polls on how Republicans and Independents felt. If it's a wealth tax on Jeff Bezos to pay for child care or free college for the middle class, middle class Independents are strongly for the idea. That should not be a shocker. I've resigned myself to the idea that at least until after the 2022 midterms, all these ideas are probably off the table. More likely than not, Democrats won't have any choice since Rich Mitch will be Majority Leader. There's only been one model for Democratic Presidential power in my adult lifetime. It happened under 16 years of Clinton and Obama. You essentially have two years to get what you want. Because for the other six years you won't have the House or Senate, or both. Anything you get done after that has to be by executive order. Or by compromises that will feel painful, or even like losses, for many in the Democratic Party. This is now what Biden will have to live with. Probably even if we manage to win both Georgia Senate seats and have 50 Senate votes. That scenario would give lots of power to Democrats like Joe Manchin, who are not liberals. My point is that the model that Democrats should be thinking about now is the 1960's. What characterized John Kennedy's Presidency was that he DID NOT have the votes to get things done - at least things like civil rights. LBJ got that done, after winning a huge victory in 1964. Democrats actually LOST two Senate seats in 1960, even though they still had an overwhelming majority thanks to the Democratic South - which at that point was also the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. It may not be until 2022 or 2024 that Democrats have the votes to do what many of us were hoping could be done in 2021. Like actually doing something about climate change. To again use that Fox poll, 66 % of voters in Pennsylvania say they are "very" or "somewhat" concerned about climate change. Again, that means a substantial minority of voters who just voted for Trump worry about climate change. I actually think Biden has a pretty good hand to play. And he is the right guy to do it. It may be that at least the first two years of his Presidency is about making the case for laws dealing with things like climate change or infrastructure or income inequality that we don't yet have the votes to enact. That's okay. Again, that's what ended up getting landmark legislation passed in the mid-1960's, under LBJ. What Biden has, more than Obama, is he lives and breathes the very American norms of compromise and bending over backwards to get common sense shit done through the US Congress. However Biden actually feels about it, he now has a perfect excuse for not having to go to war over what could labelled as fraught jargony things like "The Green New Deal". What he can do is propose things the will be good for the planet, and good for US jobs. He can and almost certainly will put Republicans in the position of having to either support or oppose incremental changes that are popular with most Democrats and many Republicans. We can't guess where this is going. But we do know that right now we have a stalemate and a country split down the middle. That said, Biden will win by about 5 million votes. He'll likely have a margin of close to 100 electoral votes. This was not a small win. He rebuilt The Blue Wall, and smashed the Red Walls of Georgia and Arizona. Democrats should not feel bad. Democrats should be thinking about how to consolidate and expand our majority. I think economic populism is the way to do it. Biden is the perfect person to make it clear that, unlike President Toxic, he is not mostly working for the interests of Wall Street, and fat cats like President Toxic. I was impressed that his TV ads talked about how he was going to raise taxes on corporations, and very affluent Americans. Even if he lacks the power to do that in 2021, Democrats should be talking about it. It will help Democrats defeat Republicans Senators in 2022. One other thing that is critical to me in this context. Biden probably did better among seniors than Hillary did. It did not win him Florida. It may have helped win him Arizona and Georgia. And he did really well among Blacks, and also Latinos in most states. But if there is one group that is NOT really being given its due on TV, it is young voters. According to the preliminary NYT exit poll, Biden won the votes of people aged 19-24 by a 67/29 margin. That is crushing. And they were 9 % of the electorate. That's a big slice. If you want to know why Biden won Georgia, just stop right there. It was young people, often young people of color, that Stacey Abrams registered to vote. I could not ask for more than a Black pastor like Rev. Warnock and a young pragmatic liberal like Jon Ossoff to be the face of the Democratic Party in this upcoming Senate runoff. By contrast, the age cohorts of voters 50-64 and 65 + were 52 % of the electorate. And they both voted for Trump over Biden 51/48. So what we know is that in 2024 there were will be a lot more of those young progressive voters that support Democrats by crushing margins. And a lot fewer voters that this time tipped the scales for Trump more than we'd hope. It did not get a victory for Trump in 2020. It will be harder still to get a victory for Trump or Trumpism in 2024. I hope Biden fights to get those young progressive voters some of what they want. Like college debt relief. Or better pay. Let them watch Rich Mitch claim to be the voice of Blacks and the heart of Latinos, even as he pisses and shits over everything they want, and everything they believe in. And then see what happens in the Senate races in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2022. What just happened in 2020 suggests that may not go very well for Republicans. I'm used to thinking of the midterms as when Democrats get killed. But that does not have to be the case. Biden is proving to be as wise as a fox. If he does this right, the 2022 midterms is when Democrats could get the Senate votes for a popular and populist economic agenda that Rich Mitch and Wall Street simply don't like. Young voters deserve a huge amount of credit for taking President Toxic out. My nieces and nephews will not be happy. They liked Sanders or Warren. Joe Biden was never their guy. But they voted for him. And the votes of people of their age cohort was what just crushed Trump. And the shitty thing, thanks to older and more moderate voters, is that it fell short of getting a US Congress that will be able to do what most young voters want. That's not a horrible outcome. I think what we just learned is that if we organize, we can win. We can crush Trump, which we just did. Now we just have to organize more to consolidate the victory. Young people in places like Georgia under the leadership of people like Stacey Abrams, Rev. Warnock, and Jon Ossoff, are going to be the ones doing that. It excites me and inspires me. Edited November 6, 2020 by stevenkesslar Quote
Members RockHardNYC Posted November 7, 2020 Members Posted November 7, 2020 This is a MUST-SEE video that apparently is taking Twitter by storm. I am always amazed and humored by the creatives who possess serious talent. This video creation is a total HOOT, and it's amazingly entertaining at the same time. I have no idea how they get away with the copyright issues. But, as long as it's available, readers might as well enjoy! The video starts immediately upon clicking. Be sure to have your earpods in and/or your sound adjusted before clicking start. Quote