Are many of us immune to Covid now?

[Riobard]

Like the article says, no easy answers. I think answers will emerge over the next several years as longer duration of patterns are easier to make sense of. We have not even nearly reached seasonal variance and Chile or Lesotho are not cold enough to generate a comparison. 

I could likely come up with some ideas but I’d have to drill down into your queries and do a lot of additional reading and review to weigh in properly, while a very small number of readers here are engaged in this topic.

I am now involved in a substantial media project related to CoV in my country ... risk conceptualization and management ... It’s now consuming a lot of time and I don’t want to be buried under by the pandemic. 
——

I am thinking that I will, for good measure, not quote or react to posts on the board until I know the hour had elapsed.

 

[tassojunior]

On 9/12/2020 at 1:01 PM, tassojunior said:

Very sorry, I didn't realize an emoticon would wipe out most of your saved draft. As a matter of fact when I just reopened this comment draft all but the first sentence had disappeared so it may have something to do with new software. I appreciate your insight. 

So what do you make of New York and Germany? New York had the surge of all surges but has now re-opened with no surge while Germany has never had a surge and just re-opened over a month ago, including all schools, bars, etc with no new surge. (Lombardy could be substituted for NY for an all-Europe comparison). In the US the "hotspots" of a month ago are having rapidly declining cases while the new surge areas are rural areas previously clear of Covid. 

When Covid first started many people , including Merkle, said it was so contagious that eventually 70% of us would be infected whatever we did, and it was a matter of locking down to maintain steady hospital space and give time for better treatments (and eventually vaccines).  It does seem as if both from mortality and infection rates, the places with previous surges are more immune while previously unaffected areas eventually get their surge. But Germany seems to disprove this. I 'm concerned because Czech, especially southern areas, has never really been hit by Covid much and had a severe lockdown but is now wide-open suddenly. 

Similarly, here's a NY v. CA comparison:  https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/16/new-york-corralled-coronavirus-whats-californias-excuse-for-case-surge/

 

update: Cases in France, Czech, Austria at least are going through the roof today as the 2nd wave is striking, but Germany still is oddly very low even though open:

https://www.google.com/search?q=czech+new+cases&oq=czech+new+cases&aqs=chrome.0.69i59.4903j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://www.google.com/search?q=new+cases+france&oq=new+cases+france&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60.4255j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://www.google.com/search?q=new+cases+germany&oq=new+cases+germany&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60.5215j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[tassojunior]

I think it's safe to say there will be a Nevada surge in two or three weeks from Trump's rallies there today/tonight. About the only thing you can give Trumptists credit for is enthusiasm. 

 

 

 

[JKane]

 

[tassojunior]

More good news, even if estimates are a little later than before. Hopefully by November this will open up a lot of travel restrictions. Certainly by year's end:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-testing/u-s-plans-for-hundreds-of-millions-of-cheap-fast-covid-19-tests-idUSKBN2681ME

U.S. plans for hundreds of millions of cheap, fast COVID-19 tests

 

[tassojunior]

Bad news today from Lancet of a study showing US overall still has less than 10% immunity (Although New York State is over 1/3 immune !) The graphs and tables are strange (immunity in 45% of those under 45 for example). 

No national herd immunity before a vaccine.

 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32009-2/fulltext

NYT summary:

Under 10 percent of Americans have coronavirus antibodies, a study finds.

Less than 10 percent of people in the United States have antibodies to the coronavirus, suggesting that the nation is even further from herd immunity than was previously estimated, according to a study published on Friday in The Lancet.

The study looked at blood samples from 28,500 patients on dialysis in 46 states, the first such nationwide analysis.

The results roughly matched those of an analysis to be released next week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which found that about 10 percent of blood samples from sites across the country contained antibodies to the virus.

Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the C.D.C., was referring to that analysis when he told a congressional committee this week that 90 percent of people in the country were still vulnerable to the virus, a C.D.C. spokeswoman said.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by tassojunior

[Suckrates]

 

I dont suspect there will be IMMUNITY until we have a viable, trustworthy, safe VACCINE.   So just get used to the new normal until then. and wear a fucking Mask !   That's the least we can do for now. 

[Suckrates]

 

After the Vaccine...Post Covid plans ????

[Riobard]

Based on the change in case incidence since The Lancet study dialysis cohort was screened for antibodies, a metric that is now 4 times the cumulative total that existed when study recruitment ended, as well as epidemiological estimates of the ratio of true case incidence to reported incidence, the likelihood of natural immunity, FWIW, has to be much higher than 10%. I think it is minimally 25% for the USA overall. 

I think that reality poses a missed opportunity for ‘sero-sorting’, widespread screening for coronavirus exposure and presumed recovery/protection. It would be an enormous undertaking, but those more vulnerable to new infection could be vaccinated that much sooner. Imagine if you could, in some regions, separate out the 40% that have viable antibodies and focus on the remainder. The former are unharmed by vaccination but could be put on hold. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Riobard