Updated Dominican Rep & Colombia CoV Risk

[Riobard]

Colombia is on par with Brazil.

Dominican Republic prevalence has considerably abated. Imma do the various N-based risk algorithm figures for it later today. 

[Riobard]

Event exposure risk Republica Dominicana per N persons together or sequentially:

5            1.3%

10          2.6%

20          5.1%

30         7.5%

40          9.9%

50          12.2%

267 for coin-toss odds 50.0% 

884 for high risk 90.0%

As you can see, a prevalence that is about 25% that of Brazil’s will considerably impact on degree of risk associated with contact volume. 
—— 

Here is a screenshot below repeating the Brazilian data. 

[Riobard]

At higher volumes, the larger the collective group at one point In time the progressively greater reduction in probability that at least one infected person is contained in it. But at higher levels of community disease prevalence the greater the probability there may be more than one person. More complex algorithms are required for, say, probability of at least two; it is not additive but is usually not much higher than for one. In many contexts, such as a flight, the original model should be sufficient. In a large venue space even with many people you are less likely to enter the viral aerobic space of a contagious participant, depending on mingling patterns. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Riobard

[Riobard]

If there are questions, please DM me a notification and I will log in prior to early October. Starting Monday Sept 7th I am busy for a few weeks. 

[NoGagSuckerSF]

Thanks for sharing this epidemiology and related info.