It's official: Trump Is History, Says The Prediction Professor

[tassojunior]

The debate is living down to my worst expectation. Why am I watching this? I saw Grumpy Old Men I and refused to watch II. Unfortunately these are two of a kind. 

 

[Suckrates]

I'll AGREE....This debate is a disaster and BOTH men are an embarrassment to this country.   

Americans dont deserve EITHER of these buffoons....   Trump is a raging pitbull and Biden is rattled.  Neither are qualified to run a bake sale, let alone a country

OMG !  

@stevenkesslar, even a tray of Cannoli's aint helping me tongiht. 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Suckrates

[stevenkesslar]

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

@stevenkesslar, even a tray of Cannoli's aint helping me tongiht. 

Dane and I solved the problem.

We'll take over.  Two old whores could do better than those guys.

My problem is I feel like I was born to be a First Lady.

If Dane takes the Presidency, could you take the Veep slot?  We'll somehow figure it out.  I mean, how could we possibly make it worse?

[Suckrates]

7 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Dane and I solved the problem.

We'll take over.  Two old whores could do better than those guys.

My problem is I feel like I was born to be a First Lady.

If Dane takes the Presidency, could you take the Veep slot?  We'll somehow figure it out.  I mean, how could we possibly make it worse?

I've always wanted to sleep in Lincolns bedroom (or anyones bedroom)  so i ACCEPT the position.  but I will never actually be IN the bed, but on my knees on the floor next to the bed....

Lets face it, Trump gave his BASE exactly what they wanted, a brutal, relentless, LYING, insulting attack dog, and Sleepy Joe seemed just that, often confused and a bit rattled by Trump...    But I saw Melania was there, so I am sure she was coaxing him on how "to be best" ?      We got Trump at his finest, most vicious, and poor Daniel Dales head was spinning....he could keep up with the lies tumbling out of Trumps mouth.....   And that stupid, foolish "undecided" focus group CNN had on hand.  What a bunch of absurd excuses for leaning towards Trump....  Obviously there are Americans that cant comprehend or understand WHAT is going on, and live in Trumps fake Reality WITH him (and his Proud boys)....

And actually, I think YOU were born to be a HAND maiden since I heard that you give great "Handies".... So stick with what you are Good at !  

My only hope is that Biden wins and Kamala becomes President......   OY VEY, we are fucked !!! 

STAND BACK, STAND BY !!!!!!  

Edited September 30, 2020 by Suckrates

[Suckrates]

In thinking about the debate, and Trumps performance some more, I came to realize that he had a plan and strategy which was quite ingenius.... He actted crazy, made some fictional claims and said some outrageous, shocking shit.   Some are calling him unhinged....  I say, for Trump, he was Smart....  NOONE is talking about his tax fraud today  (which is a major, ongoing issue for him) or his Supreme Court robbery.  Instead of focusing on what a crook and scumbag he is, they are simply talking about how Crazy he is.... A masterfull Pivot !  

Edited September 30, 2020 by Suckrates

[tassojunior]

I still say the "debate" was a loss for democracy and the 2-party system that again the parties have presented us with an awful choice. In a run-off or ranked system there's no way these two would be the final choice. 

Anyway, I'm getting more concerned the losing party is not going to accept the results because of balloting problems (and probably counting errors too eventually). Our neighborhood blog in DC had where every mail-in ballot for a big building was left in a bunch at a neighboring building. And then the NYT said 100,000 mail-in ballots in Brooklyn yesterday had their outer envelope name and inner envelope names mismatched, which would invalidate the votes. For both places mail-in balloting is new so there are bound to be issues but this is an issue both because the losing side is less likely to accept the results and these numbers really can change the result if so many mail-ins are invalidated. These are supposed to be mostly Democratic party votes. 

An oddity is also that states can choose Electoral College delegates however they want, it doesn't have to be an election result. In an electoral mess a state could quickly declare one party or the other the winner if one party has both houses of the legislature and the governorship. 3 possible tipping-states that have a GOP "trifecta" are Arizona, Florida and Ohio. (In 2000 FL was a split-party state). 

So there are two ways massive new mail-in mistakes could cost the Dems a win on top of just being an excuse for the GOP not accepting a loss. 

https://www.popville.com/2020/09/definitely-not-a-normal-delivery/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/nyregion/absentee-ballot-nyc-brooklyn.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=New York

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

7 hours ago, Suckrates said:

In thinking about the debate, and Trumps performance some more, I came to realize that he had a plan and strategy which was quite ingenius....

My dearest and most darlingest sister.

First of all, how shall I put this?  It's ingenious. 

Granted, in our youth I was always the brainy and ugly duckling type.  But if you'd perhaps spent just a little less time cock sucking at boarding school, and a little more time practicing for spelling bees with me, you would be an even more perfect woman today.  Regardless, I still love you as a sister.   Unlike certain other people, we can at least talk about what it means to be smart.

Quote

“Did you use the word ‘smart?'” asked Trump.

“Don’t ever use the word ‘smart’ with me,” continued Trump. “There’s nothing smart about you, Joe.”

You obviously watched CNN last night.  

There's a few things you didn't mention that I'll point out.  David Axelrod and Rick Santorum both agreed that our ingeniusly smart President's performance mostly shredded support and sent the people he most needs to convince running for cover, or Pepto Bismol.  Santorum pointed out the embrace of white supremacist groups and the refusal to ensure a peaceful transfer of power were both cringeworthy.  Axelrod said this would do serious damage to President Toxic - as if he were not damaged goods already.  When Santorum and Axelrod agree that President Toxic is in big trouble, he's in big trouble.

Some unnamed Republican pollster who tweeted Dana Bash put it more succinctly.  What the Independent women Trump desperately needs saw tonight is everything about Trump they hate, the Republican pollster said.

Not to be disrespectful or disagreeable, my darlingest sister, but Bob Woodward disagrees with you.  He stated on MSNBC that one of his conclusions after many hours of conversations with President Toxic is that he never has a plan.  About anything.

So the irony is that everyone in America is now talking about what President Toxic's secret plan to steal the election and destroy democracy is.  When, in fact, Trump's only plan was to walk on stage, bellow, and lie.  Frankly, I thought his snorting and stalking debate performance in 2016 was more interesting.  I agree with Woodward and the Republican pollster.  It may be a good look for a challenger attacking Hillary.  It's not a good look for an unpopular incumbent President.

Even Chris Christie, who actually helped President Toxic prepare for the debate, said Trump was "too hot".  I don't think he meant that in the sense we used the phrase to describe the muscular young football players at boarding school whose cocks we loved to suck.

Biden Jumps Ahead

by Rasmussen Reports 

Quote

Following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S. Supreme Court nominee just weeks before Election Day, Democrat Joe Biden has jumped out to an eight-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The survey does not include reaction to last night’s first Trump-Biden debate.

When even President Toxic's favorite Republican pollster says he is losing, and his decision to say "fuck you" to the majority of Americans who don't want the seat filled has backfired, there's a big problem.  Rasmussen's approval ratings for President Toxic show the same thing.  They went from +4 net approval on Sept. 25th to - 7 % net disapproval today..  And this is BEFORE the performance at the debate everyone loves to hate is factored in. 

Poor thing.  It suggests that as the Democrats lay in every day about how right wing court packing will kill the ACA, kill Roe v. Wade, kill voting rights, it's not going to help President Toxic or his party.

I have to assume that if President Toxic lost something like 10 % of voters on his unwillingness to listen to or care about the American people, this isn't going to help Republicans down the ticket, either.  Like all those Republican Senators running in what are now "swing" states.   Including South Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, and .............................. wait for it.............................. Kansas!  I'm clicking my ruby red heels in hopes that a poll saying Barbara Bollier is 2 points ahead in Kansas is accurate.  

When I quote the wisdom of Rick Santorum twice in one post, something strange is definitely happening.  Santorum said on CNN that if he were a down ballot Republican running now, he'd be really pissed at President Toxic.  Because he indulged his darkest self and worst impulses, probably at the expense of all the Republicans he is running with.  I suspect Santorum is right.

Oh well. Couldn't happen to a nicer and more ingenius guy, could it?

I should be fair, and at least provide a hint of the wisdom of President Toxic's base, to whom the debate was clearly pitched.  I read several articles praising Trump's geniousness. Here's my favorite lines:

Quote

It was an impressive display of natural animal cunning. And it could make the difference in the election. Trump was agile, aggressive, and vigorous, taking what he wanted when he wanted it. This offends some people’s sensibilities. He’s transgressive. He doesn’t play according to the rules. But for others, that’s part of the appeal.  It’s no secret that the ruling class in America despises the country class.

But a lot of Americans who live in interior America and get unglamorous jobs at slowly declining wages, raise their families want nothing more than to be left alone by the credentialed but unaccomplished strivers who hate them. For those people, Trump is their champion.

 

Here's how I read that.  They feel like losers.  And they are already rationalizing why they will lose to the "ruling class".  They don't expect an incompetent President to actually do something about their rage, and their "slowly declining wages".  They just expect him to be an animal.

I agree.   President Toxic is an animal.  And if suburban women or Blacks or Hispanics or college graduates - aka all the "unaccomplished strivers" - wanted to elect an animal President, he would no doubt win.

Personally, were I voting for an animal for President, I might have chosen a panda.  

Or perhaps a horse.  At least a horse would have one attractive feature to offer you and me, sis.  

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[stevenkesslar]

Would everybody be okay with making Sandra Bernhard moderator of the next debate?

 

[tassojunior]

Sure enough, the morning after the Grumpy Old Men III shit show, both sides are revising how their candidate really won. lol, No one won that mess. The two seemed like twins separated at birth. I can't imagine 2 people not twins more alike than Biden and Trump. Neither said one thing about any policy (we expect that in "good" politicians) and both spoke at the same time as the other for a majority of the debate (that was weird). 

The fact that this is the BEST OF THE BEST that these 2 shitty parties could come up w/ is an insult to anyone with a speck of intelligence.

[Suckrates]

 

The debate proved only to be a masterclass in Contrast, of style and temperament...   do you want 4 more years of a hysterical hyena,  or do you prefer a guy with a little less kabuki theatre....?    Truly neither is preferential, but one is certainly a "lesser of the evil".....

If anyone (except the Proud boys) can condone and support Trumps behavior last night, THEY DESERVE HIM !  

And when they come for YOU, dont cry that you werent WARNED.........

    

[tassojunior]

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

58 minutes ago, tassojunior said:

 

 

I watched the whole Pelosi interview this morning.  It was a master class in how to outsmart President Toxic.  Of course, it's not the hardest thing to do in the world. 

She's been doing it since that first meeting in the Oval Office right after she became Speaker again, when she basically allowed President Toxic to be the mean asshole who would shut down the government in what turned out to be his last gasp in the losing battle to publicly defend The Wall. 

Geez.  Why aren't we hearing about The Wall in 2020.  I'd give Nancy much of the credit for that.

The polls suggest to me that maybe 2 in 3 undecided voters are just starting to break for Biden.  It's too early to tell.  But the basic structure of the race suggests that the majority will go for the change candidate, which in this case is Biden. 

The language that the focus group types use is that they know that they don't want to vote for President Toxic.  But Biden has not yet closed the deal.  Even Republican pollster Frank Luntz asked this in a focus group he was running: 

Quote

“You just saw 90 minutes. How can you still be undecided?” an incredulous Luntz asked. “Please explain that to me?”

The legitimate answer is that undecided people wanted to actually hear about policy.  From Biden in particular, because they got the memo that President Toxic has no policies.  He just rants and insults.  Luntz has also suggested that perhaps Trump's goal was to prevent Biden from closing the deal.  Or perhaps just discourage people from voting altogether.

This answer Luntz drew out ought to concern anyone who fervently dreams of President AOC:

Quote

A noticeable number of the undecideds were struck by Biden’s defiance when pressed by Trump about the progressive, left flank of the Democratic Party. And many said they wanted to hear more about efforts to unify the country from both candidates — a handful ended the evening thinking Biden would fashion a more diverse, bipartisan administration.

“My biggest concern about Biden going in and just throughout the whole primary was the radical left, so to speak, taking over the party,” said Joe of Arizona. But Biden’s answer convinced him otherwise. Now, he said, he planned to vote for the Democrat.

Progressives who think Bernie would have done better winning the debate and persuading swing voters like Joe in swing states like Arizona might want to consider that.

I've already decided to be cynical about this.  Regardless of what Biden does, or how many Senate seats Democrats win, Rich Mitch will likely be around in 2022 to argue that Biden (and Treasury Secretary Warren) turned out to be socialists, after all.  Joe in Arizona will buy the message, and vote Republican in 2022.  The good news is that in 2022 Republicans have to defend the 24 Senate seats they won in 2016, including i blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  So even if Joe in Arizona flips back, Democrats have a good chance of having four years to get important things done.

The latest polls released, including one by Rasmussen (!), all show Biden with a 8-9 % lead over President Toxic.  But let's go with the latest RCP average, which is Biden 49.7, President Toxic 43.1.   That leaves about 7 % undecided.  Let's be generous and give Biden 5 and President Toxic 2.  This could be a 55/45 race, minus some for third parties.  After last night, it's quite possible Biden wins by a 10 point margin.  It's hard to believe Trump will do better than Biden in a Town Hall format.  

Mostly, Nancy's interview this morning was a clear indication of how strong the hand of the Democrats is.  Ideally, if Biden wins by 10 points, it's just game over on Election Night.  But she's back stopping Biden by working on the weird, unlikely, but not impossible contingencies. 

Like what happens if the contest is thrown into the House, where the slave owners made sure that the slave states were protected? In modern terms, that means that California's 39.5 million residents get one House vote for President, just like Alaska's 750,000 residents.  How democratic is that?  I'll be broken record.  We need to get rid of all anti-democratic vestiges of the Slavery Electoral College.  Nancy's immediate goal is for the Democrats to take over one more House delegation, which would deprive President Toxic of a second term based on winning a majority (26) of votes from the 50 House delegations.  

Her other immediate goal, which was quite transparent, is to pull more principled Republicans away from their party.  I don't even know that she was working on the election itself, since there are so few undecided.  My read is that leading Democrats are already thinking about the post-Trump era.  It is in the Democrats' interest to dig the trench between Trump Republicans and Party Republicans deeper.  It's a 60/40 split, so the odds favor the Trump Republicans.  But I think Nancy's goal is really to help them split apart, so that what we saw last night becomes the symbol of the losing Trump Republican Party.  They'll whine, bellow, and feel like losers.

It's sad that progressives who don't feel Nancy is open-minded enough to progressives are rigidly opposed to her sounding open-minded about bipartisanship.  It's one more data point that suggests that some progressives, like Kute Kyle, are mostly interested in purity, not power.

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[Suckrates]

 

People, VOTE.......and

[tassojunior]

17 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I watched the whole Pelosi interview this morning.  It was a master class in how to outsmart President Toxic.  Of course, it's not the hardest thing to do in the world. 

She's been doing it since that first meeting in the Oval Office right after she became Speaker again, when she basically allowed President Toxic to be the mean asshole who would shut down the government in what turned out to be his last gasp in the losing battle to publicly defend The Wall. 

Geez.  Why aren't we hearing about The Wall in 2020.  I'd give Nancy much of the credit for that.

The polls suggest to me that maybe 2 in 3 undecided voters are just starting to break for Biden.  It's too early to tell.  But the basic structure of the race suggests that the majority will go for the change candidate, which in this case is Biden. 

The language that the focus group types use is that they know that they don't want to vote for President Toxic.  But Biden has not yet closed the deal.  Even Republican pollster Frank Luntz asked this in a focus group he was running: 

The legitimate answer is that undecided people wanted to actually hear about policy.  From Biden in particular, because they got the memo that President Toxic has no policies.  He just rants and insults.  Luntz has also suggested that perhaps Trump's goal was to prevent Biden from closing the deal.  Or perhaps just discourage people from voting altogether.

This answer Luntz drew out ought to concern anyone who fervently dreams of President AOC:

Progressives who think Bernie would have done better winning the debate and persuading swing voters like Joe in swing states like Arizona might want to consider that.

I've already decided to be cynical about this.  Regardless of what Biden does, or how many Senate seats Democrats win, Rich Mitch will likely be around in 2022 to argue that Biden (and Treasury Secretary Warren) turned out to be socialists, after all.  Joe in Arizona will buy the message, and vote Republican in 2022.  The good news is that in 2022 Republicans have to defend the 24 Senate seats they won in 2016, including i blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  So even if Joe in Arizona flips back, Democrats have a good chance of having four years to get important things done.

The latest polls released, including one by Rasmussen (!), all show Biden with a 8-9 % lead over President Toxic.  But let's go with the latest RCP average, which is Biden 49.7, President Toxic 43.1.   That leaves about 7 % undecided.  Let's be generous and give Biden 5 and President Toxic 2.  This could be a 55/45 race, minus some for third parties.  After last night, it's quite possible Biden wins by a 10 point margin.  It's hard to believe Trump will do better than Biden in a Town Hall format.  

Mostly, Nancy's interview this morning was a clear indication of how strong the hand of the Democrats is.  Ideally, if Biden wins by 10 points, it's just game over on Election Night.  But she's back stopping Biden by working on the weird, unlikely, but not impossible contingencies. 

Like what happens if the contest is thrown into the House, where the slave owners made sure that the slave states were protected? In modern terms, that means that California's 39.5 million residents get one House vote for President, just like Alaska's 750,000 residents.  How democratic is that?  I'll be broken record.  We need to get rid of all anti-democratic vestiges of the Slavery Electoral College.  Nancy's immediate goal is for the Democrats to take over one more House delegation, which would deprive President Toxic of a second term based on winning a majority (26) of votes from the 50 House delegations.  

Her other immediate goal, which was quite transparent, is to pull more principled Republicans away from their party.  I don't even know that she was working on the election itself, since there are so few undecided.  My read is that leading Democrats are already thinking about the post-Trump era.  It is in the Democrats' interest to dig the trench between Trump Republicans and Party Republicans deeper.  It's a 60/40 split, so the odds favor the Trump Republicans.  But I think Nancy's goal is really to help them split apart, so that what we saw last night becomes the symbol of the losing Trump Republican Party.  They'll whine, bellow, and feel like losers.

It's sad that progressives who don't feel Nancy is open-minded enough to progressives are rigidly opposed to her sounding open-minded about bipartisanship.  It's one more data point that suggests that some progressives, like Kute Kyle, are mostly interested in purity, not power.

 

Kyle is almost cute. And that he doesn't seem to know it makes it better. But he does have a lot more sense than any of the cable news morons. People don't realize what a behind-the-headlines force he was for queer rights with his podcast and YouTube channel which he started at 18 in his parents' New Rochelle basement.(Now at 30 he's making $500,000/yr from his YouTube political commentary channel). I just follow on Twitter

Kyle's 1st show at 18. 

 

I got a jumpstart on the streamers to sanity when in 2000 I completely stopped watching cable news I was so disgusted with W winning. Cable news was addictive and my intent was to avoid any knowledge of W, who it was consumed with just like Trump now. But I found freeing myself up to read other stuff made me realize what a mess America is partly because of the establishment quasi-government propaganda barrage cable subjects us to endlessly. GE owns NBC but makes most of it's money building war weapons. (Yahoo and Google collect data and help China surveille and imprison people. Facebook helps Israel murder Palestinians). I can't imagine young people under 35 who would ever watch CNN or MSNBC or Fox or any of the mindless US corporate news media intentionally but unfortunately they still frame American news "events" (and the mediums that carry the internet help the surveillance state and genocide). 

IF the Democrats' intent is indeed to replace the blue collar white Dems they lost to Trump and poor people with wealthy woke Republican suburban women in Birkenstocks, it's not working. I think the polls are not showing any significant defection of real Republicans. That's more a media story supported by endless Republican establishment  "leaders" who are anti-Trump. That didn't filter down in 2016 and it's not in 2020.  Kicking the anti-war, the Hispanic, and the economic reformers out of the party is going to have bad consequences in the near future as those wavering woke suburban independents will waver back away when their taxes go up, their schools are integrated, or plastic straws are banned. It's not a long-term winning strategy unless your idea of winning is getting rid of reformers and poorer people. 

And that's the plan.

Romney's 47% quote in 2008 sent shock waves through the Democratic party establishment on Wall Street and Silicon Valley. If indeed that % of the population is so dirt poor they pay no taxes and they all vote Democratic, they will inevitably take over the Democratic party from Wall Street and Silicon Valley. How much money can be made by "leaders" of a party that gets cut off from that gravy train? The intent is to leave the poor whites in the Trumpist Republican party, along with many poor Hispanics and some Blacks while bringing over to the Democrats "moderate" Republican-voting suburbanites. 

Continuance of the present 2-party system with it's current "leaders" requires that both parties be pretty much similar in their members' economics. If you were to have the majority of Americans who are dirt poor all in one party, they could easily control that party and actually make economic democracy. The poor have to be divided for the rich to survive in the style they are accustomed to in America and 3rd-world countries. That's why not just Romney but plenty of other Republican and Democratic "leaders" (ie:rich) believe democracy may be a bad idea if it means the leaders having their money taken by the poor deplorables. 

 Anyway, I'm not a fan of the leaders' dream of having two fairly similar parties again like we did in the last half of the 20th century. Eventually the half of the country that is poor is going to take control as the underclass grows if we keep democracy. These social division games wear thin after a while with people being more educated.   

Reuters today:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-tech/amazon-and-big-tech-cozy-up-to-biden-camp-with-cash-and-connections-idUSKBN26M5O2

Amazon and Big Tech cozy up to Biden camp with cash and connections

Joining Amazon, Google and Microsoft are among the top five contributors to Joe Biden's candidate campaign committee in the 2020 cycle,

      

Edited October 1, 2020 by tassojunior

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

[tassojunior]

 

Early voting started today in Georgia and lines take over 5 hours. 11 hours reported in Atlanta's usual mess. 

Ridiculous American elections.

 

 

 

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Suckrates]

[JKane]

 

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AdamSmith]

On 8/26/2020 at 5:29 PM, Buddy2 said:

I am not defending the Electoral College,  or calling for change.  The extremely long posts in this thread  make me think it's about everything but this year election.

It would seem to me it is about exactly that, and then the underlying conditions that got us here. They are interconnected.

[Buddy2]

I remember discussing the Electoral College in a high school history senior in 1960-1961.

[Suckrates]

[Suckrates]

 

"It'll be OK Donnie Boy,  I got your Back"