It's official: Trump Is History, Says The Prediction Professor

[stevenkesslar]

Minnesota’s myth-making met stark reality. Where does Gov. Tim Walz go from here?

This post is anecdotal,  and pushes more around the margins of understanding what's driving authoritarian behavior in the US today.  It's an interesting interview with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.  I'll cite the parts I found most interesting and relevant.

Quote

Is Walz living in a fantasy? Or, more generously, in the past? Even Gwen Walz, the governor’s wife and a high school English teacher, sometimes worries that he is, at least when it comes to dealing with his Republican adversaries. By most evidence, they are little interested in helping Walz carry out the cheerful “One Minnesota” vision he campaigned on.  

“She’s a little more, ‘They mistake your kindness for weakness and don’t ever do that,'” Walz said of his spouse’s views about the yearning for a collegial bipartisan center she believes is illusion. “But I also think — especially when you’re in an executive position — I still believe our system of checks and balances and compromise created a better, fairer system that worked, and I do not see this oscillation amongst extremes being a better way of governing.”

 

Translation:  @lookin is speaking more like Gov. Walz, and I'm speaking more like Mrs. Walz.  (Are we married?  Who knew!)   That said, I agree with what Walz said.  As a Governor, he has to try to be publicly bipartisan.  Even if he privately thinks his wife is right.  I'll repeat what I said above.  The Republicans Democrats can most fruitfully work with are the "Kasich Republicans" or "Hogan Republicans", I think.  They are the ones turned off by President Toxic's ignorance and authoritarianism.

Quote

Walz, from the southern Minnesota town of Mankato, is the first governor in 40 years not to come from the Twin Cities metro area. In rural areas, he said, the economic and cultural grievance he finds is palpable: “The [2008-2009] recession did not bounce back as quickly in rural areas. I think they had people telling them that, ‘Hey, the people in the cities are getting over on you.’ … And the president tells them and again, ‘Hey, it’s these folks. Put the blame on these folks in the cities. It’s these folks that are taking away your life,’ and I think people are frustrated.”

I don’t understand it from a political standpoint, but [the pandemic] played into that larger narrative that the other side is not only wrong; they’re bent on destroying something that’s important to you and I don’t know where that got into there. These are my relatives. The county where I grew up [in Nebraska] — and my mom still lives there on a farm — voted 93 percent for President Trump.

That's a fascinating comment coming from a guy like Walz.  The first paragraph acknowledges that at the core of what we're calling authoritarianism is real economic anxiety and, more important, real economic pain.  That said, how do you get from that to what Walz describes in the second paragraph?  Its definitely authoritarian thinking.  And scapegoating.  The most ardent members of Team Toxic will not be easily persuaded that The Socialists or The Deep State or whatever is not out to destroy them.

If anyone can talk with people who feel this way, it's somebody like Walz.  And implicit in his statement is an acknowledgement that he can't.  I'd say Kasich has reached pretty much the same conclusions.

I'll reiterate Dean's point.  They do understand defeat?  Is it possible there will be more receptivity to moderates like Walz or conservatives like Kasich after President Toxic is defeated?  I at least hope so.

Quote

 “I think there’s a racism we didn’t want to talk about. I heard a young woman, a mother, up in Duluth from Arkansas and she said, ‘The racism I’ve felt has been quieter but meaner.’ And that breaks my heart.” 

... one of the issues I really focused on was this education piece. ... I’m a high school teacher, but I spent a lot of time with this, and the thing that was most troubling to me — and this is where the George Floyd stuff [comes in] — is the inequities that America has and kind of the systemic racisms. It's just here, it’s just the absolute epitome. What that ends up causing is you have a state that ranks first in educational attainment in public schools if you’re white, last if you’re not.

That the public education divide is THAT stark in Minnesota surprises me.  But it fills out the picture.  It's a coin toss whether Trumpist authoritarianism is more about real economic anxiety and pain, or about racism and scapegoating.  I've always felt it's both/and.  

A lot of MAGA conservatives seem to have reached the conclusion that there is no real point in conversations about racism.  Let alone self examination about what could be their own racism.  Rather, they now just want to throw the word "racist" back at Obama, or Blacks, or woke White liberals.    President Toxic modeled how to do it, and legitimized it. 

That is why I single out Daddy.  He doesn't need to endorse "Black Lives Matter".  Arguably, in the position he's in running a social media website he should NOT take sides.  But by taking sides and labeling Black Lives Matter as racist, he has revealed his own racism.  It's a free country, so he has every right to.  But he also made his website permanently into Daddy's "Racism Is Okay" website.  It's not exactly a shocker to me that this is where President Toxic has moved many people who have always been conservatives.  Trump just made them feel their racism is not only perfectly okay, because it's not racism.  It's righteous.   I'm not holding my breath for them to suddenly or even slowly move to some other more tolerant space.

Bottom line:  I applaud Gov. Walz and his open-hearted and tolerant impulses.  I wish him luck.  My prognosis is that his wife is wise.  And he'll need all the luck he can get.

Edited September 10, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[tassojunior]

@stevenkesslar

Knowing your poll interest (I was about to say fetish) , here's one unpublished one today that otherwise shows the same margin-of-error spreads in the swings but is excellent news for Biden in Michigan on top of the usually (R) Rasmussen today. Pennsylvania polls have been a disappointment for Biden but having either PA or MH is critical for him. (again, I don't give a lot of credence to exact % but to trends and know that individual states can be very wrong and the swing-state average is most accurate). 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by tassojunior

[tassojunior]

I keep worrying about technical reporting problems 

 

 

[JKane]

[JKane]

Really starting to like Gaffigan.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

 

Democrats build big edge in early voting

Far more Democrats than Republicans are requesting mail ballots in key battleground states, including voters who didn't participate in 2016.

Quote

Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.

The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.

Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.

Though the figures are preliminary, they provide a window into Democratic enthusiasm ahead of the election and offer a warning for Republicans. While Democrats stockpile votes and bring in new supporters, Trump’s campaign is relying on a smooth Election Day turnout operation at a time when it’s confronting an out-of-control pandemic and a mounting cash crunch.

There's been several articles recently about how Republicans have done a better job than Democrats of registering new voters under President Toxic.  In particular, a recent Politico article said in Pennsylvania it appears that Republicans may have registered something like 170,000 more new voters than Democrats.  That said,  Democrats still outnumber Republicans by 750,000 voters in Pennsylvania.  So if Democrats turn out at the same rate as Republicans, Democrats will win.

Another unknown is that Republicans have been doing door-to-door and face-to-face voter organizing in a way that Democrats have not, due to the different perceptions about COVID-19.  I have to imagine that door to door contact is going to help Republicans at the margin.  That said, the very fact that COVID-19 is running rampant may deliver two Democratic votes for every Republican who votes because a Trump volunteer spoke to her at her door.  We just don't know.

This is a good summary by 538 of Republican efforts to make it harder to vote.   It sounds like states and counties are all over the map in terms of how and when mail-in or absentee ballots get counted.  And this is an area of huge legal skirmishes right now.  Republicans in at least some places are trying to prevent any vote counting from happening before Election Day.  Including, for example, verification of signatures on the outside envelope of mail-in ballots, which is one of the most time-consuming and important steps to prevent fraud.

My contempt for the Toxic Trump Republicans just deepens by the day.  These people, including President Toxic himself, have used absentee ballots in Florida to increase GOP turnout and win elections for a long time.  That's fair, because they have the right to vote.  But now they are bitching and moaning that this is fraud.  But only in states where it may help Democrats.  And right now they are actively taking steps to make it harder to catch any possible fraud by making it harder to carefully verify the signatures on mail-in ballots.

Regardless, in some of these states it appears likely that the "red mirage" everyone is worried about could be offset by a flood of mail-in ballots, many of them cast early by Democrats.

I've been guessing, or at least hoping, that all the noise about fraud and mail-in voting is a great B'rer Rabbit strategy.  By making a big deal about Republicans not allowing Democrats to vote by mail, we're just ensuring that more Democrats will insist on their right to vote by mail.  Maybe that is what is happening.  It's too early to tell.  But this is very encouraging.

So encouraging that I have to go take a shower.  I had an orgasm when I read this article.  

[tassojunior]

Good news for Dems.

Edited September 11, 2020 by tassojunior

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Pete1111]

Last night Peter Hamby and Jessica Yellen appearing in Real Time with Bill Maher both claimed a Biden win is a sure thing.  I like the sound of that, yet I agreed with Maher, I'm not convinced.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Pete1111
Grammar

[Pete1111]

If we're really over 45, if the perfessor is right, everyone must still vote.

 

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tassojunior]

On 9/11/2020 at 2:41 PM, stevenkesslar said:

 

Democrats build big edge in early voting

Far more Democrats than Republicans are requesting mail ballots in key battleground states, including voters who didn't participate in 2016.

There's been several articles recently about how Republicans have done a better job than Democrats of registering new voters under President Toxic.  In particular, a recent Politico article said in Pennsylvania it appears that Republicans may have registered something like 170,000 more new voters than Democrats.  That said,  Democrats still outnumber Republicans by 750,000 voters in Pennsylvania.  So if Democrats turn out at the same rate as Republicans, Democrats will win.

Another unknown is that Republicans have been doing door-to-door and face-to-face voter organizing in a way that Democrats have not, due to the different perceptions about COVID-19.  I have to imagine that door to door contact is going to help Republicans at the margin.  That said, the very fact that COVID-19 is running rampant may deliver two Democratic votes for every Republican who votes because a Trump volunteer spoke to her at her door.  We just don't know.

This is a good summary by 538 of Republican efforts to make it harder to vote.   It sounds like states and counties are all over the map in terms of how and when mail-in or absentee ballots get counted.  And this is an area of huge legal skirmishes right now.  Republicans in at least some places are trying to prevent any vote counting from happening before Election Day.  Including, for example, verification of signatures on the outside envelope of mail-in ballots, which is one of the most time-consuming and important steps to prevent fraud.

My contempt for the Toxic Trump Republicans just deepens by the day.  These people, including President Toxic himself, have used absentee ballots in Florida to increase GOP turnout and win elections for a long time.  That's fair, because they have the right to vote.  But now they are bitching and moaning that this is fraud.  But only in states where it may help Democrats.  And right now they are actively taking steps to make it harder to catch any possible fraud by making it harder to carefully verify the signatures on mail-in ballots.

Regardless, in some of these states it appears likely that the "red mirage" everyone is worried about could be offset by a flood of mail-in ballots, many of them cast early by Democrats.

I've been guessing, or at least hoping, that all the noise about fraud and mail-in voting is a great B'rer Rabbit strategy.  By making a big deal about Republicans not allowing Democrats to vote by mail, we're just ensuring that more Democrats will insist on their right to vote by mail.  Maybe that is what is happening.  It's too early to tell.  But this is very encouraging.

So encouraging that I have to go take a shower.  I had an orgasm when I read this article.  

Wondering what you think about the fact the apparent deciding states in a close election, Pennsylvania and Michigan, are also two of the worst and slowest for counting ballots. Pennsylvania's primary took weeks to be counted and Philadelphia makes Broward County look good. Other swing states are slow counting too. We could have a nasty November that might make Bush vs Gore look fast and clearcut. The bitterness may get out of hand if it stretches out and looks fishy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/swing-states-election-vote-count-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-414465

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin decided the 2016 election. We’ll have to wait on them in 2020

Huge surges in mail voting will change how and when votes are counted in 2020.

[tassojunior]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pennsylvania-general-election-fears-primary-results-delay-mail-in-votes/

Pennsylvania's mail-in votes still weren't all tallied after one week — officials fear election "nightmare" in November

[tassojunior]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/politics/2020-election-pennsylvania-ba

Start of Pennsylvania's election is on hold because of ballot delay

[tassojunior]

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

On 9/15/2020 at 7:09 PM, tassojunior said:

We could have a nasty November that might make Bush vs Gore look fast and clearcut. The bitterness may get out of hand if it stretches out and looks fishy.

Here's a fun fact that I figured out yesterday that tangents on your question.  My assumption all year has been that the most obvious thing Democrats needs to do is rebuild the Blue Wall and win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to get to 270. That said, Biden could lose Pennsylvania and still get to 270.  He just has to win Arizona.

Here's RCP's current "no toss up" Slavery Electoral College map.  So if the polls are exactly right  (spoiler: they're not) as of today Biden wins 353 electoral votes.  If you take out Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida that still leaves Biden with 291.  Pennsylvania has 20, which is more than Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10).  So he could lose Pennsylvania and win with 271 electoral votes.  The key state he has to carry is Arizona, with 11 electoral votes. 

Right now, Biden's margin on the 538 averages is 7+ points ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.  It's 5+ give or take in Arizona, and a fraction of a percent lower in Pennsylvania.  There was talk about Wisconsin being the best Trump target due to Kenosha.  That's stopped now.  So as long as Biden keeps doing well in Arizona, he has some wiggle room to lose one of those three Blue Wall states in a close election.  Pennsylvania with 20 votes would be the most painful to lose.  But Biden could survive it.

To me this electoral math mirrors what Biden needs to do as President.  Priority # 1 has to be to rebuild the Blue Wall.  And to me that means some combination of infrastructure and industrial policy so that Biden and Democrats can say in 2024 they brought jobs back in a big way.  My assumption is that Arizona and Georgia and Texas are all three Sun Belt states that are on their way to being Democratic, anyway.  That's due to both demography (Blacks and Hispanics and suburbs, oh my!) and being on the winning side of the new economy.  So to me Biden, being the political hack he is, has to really focus on those three Rust Belt Blue Wall states, which all have variations of the same post-industrial problem.

It is amazing to me that President Toxic didn't figure this out.  Even before COVID, in February 2020, the factory jobs picture in those states was at best stagnant.  And there were bad narratives about huge tax breaks to the Foxconns and other job creators that never resulted in the promised jobs.  I have to believe Republicans like Paul Ryan really did believe their tax cut ideology.  That forking millions over to "job creators" would do the trick.  It sets up Biden nicely to say whenever we do it that way (W. and now President Toxic) it grows the deficit but does not create the promised jobs.  Better for government to raise corporate taxes and spend the money wisely.

Since I posted that map, and this is the prediction thread, let me post this again.

That's from an article this Spring that modeled the likely Slavery Electoral College outcome based on two variables we didn't know yet:  President Toxic's approval rating in June, and second quarter GDP.  We now know GDP was - 9.5 % in the second quarter.  That was off the charts compared to every real election campaign of every incumbent President since WW II.  And Trump's net approval rating was - 10 % or lower.  So if this election is the same as every other, President Toxic will be lucky to get 144 electoral votes. 

This model accurately predicted the winner of every election since WW II with an incumbent, looking backward, within an average of about 20 electoral votes.  The furthest it was off could put Trump at maybe 200 electoral votes.  But what it suggests is that that RCP Slavery Electoral College map I posted above, where Biden gets over 350 and President Toxic gets 185, is probably a very realistic scenario.

I posted and commented extensively on a new Ron Brownstein article in another thread.  But here's one part that fits in here.  This is the same guy that developed the model above:

Quote

Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist who has extensively studied the role of economic conditions and other fundamentals in presidential outcomes, agrees. Given the magnitude of the pandemic's impact, "I probably would have expected that it would hurt him more than it has and Trump's [approval and vote share] numbers would have dropped into the mid-30s," he told me. "You would think Biden would be up 15 or 20, not 6 or 7 or 8 points. As long as it stays in that range, there's still that outside chance ... [Trump] can eke out narrow wins in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and he could still win the electoral vote. I don't think that's very likely, but it's not inconceivable."

I think that's right.  If things were less polarized, a Biden landslide would probably be more likely - simply based on objective variables.  Like the economy and the Coronavirus deaths and the social unrest.  And the fact that President Toxic is viewed as toxic by a majority of Americans.   But he's basically convinced lots of people to buy his version of reality.  Even though there's no evidence that he has their back.  They may be unemployed or hurting financially.  And he is exposing them to the risk of COVID-19 at his rallies.  So if President Toxic ekes out a win, or even if he manages to avoid a landslide, that would be why.  The ultimate reality TV guy became a reality TV President.  And just enough people bought it.

How unpopular is Donald Trump

In terms of prediction, I think those comparisons to other Presidents further down that 538 page are worth taking a lot at.  It's fair for you to say I'm obsessed with polls, @tassojunior.  But I'm not.  The snapshot polls have very little value, since they change constantly.  The approval ratings are far stickier and reliable for predicting.  So I think we can now make some guesses.

We're now at Day 1336 of Trump's Presidency.  If you go back to earlier this year, his average approval rating was very close to Obama's and W.'s.  Around Day 1000 Obama and Trump were both at about 43 %.  Around Day 1200 W.'s approval rating was only about 44 % - about one point over Trump's.  For both Obama and W., those were THE low points of their first term.  So by Election Day, they both recovered to right around 50/50 approval/disapproval.  And they both won.  Although it wasn't a blowout for either. By this point in 2004 and 2012, both Obama and W. were both at about 50 % approval.  President Toxic is stuck at 43 %.  That's not a good sign.

If you look at the other charts comparing Trump's approval trend to other Presidents, there are two patterns, neither of which fit Trump.  In 1972 and 1984 and 1996, Nixon and Reagan and Clinton both had strong net approval.  They both won in blowouts.  In 1976 and 1992, Carter and "Poppy" Bush both had approval ratings about 5 % below where President Toxic is right now.  They both lost badly.  So if you just go by approval ratings, President Toxic could lose in a blowout like Carter.  But probably his approval rating would have to go down to the high 30's, like Carter's was.

Bronwstein's article nailed it.  President Toxic built himself a floor Carter didn't have, perhaps, by being a Reality TV President that throws red meat to conservatives and "poorly educated" followers.  But it also built him a really low ceiling, since he alienates everybody else.  

The one Presidency that actually looks a lot like President Toxic is Gerald Ford's.  Neither man had a honeymoon.  And neither man ever had over 50 % of Americans who approved of them in any sustained way.   Ford's approval rating was right around where Trump's is right now this close to the election.

So I don't base a lot on horse race polls.  Other than the fact that Biden has had a lead of 5 % or more every day since last year.  It's 7 % now.  For it to go down to a 3 % lead would take something President Toxic hasn't figured out so far.  Or a massive fuck up on Biden's part.

Meanwhile, my read of the "stickier" approval ratings is that one extreme is President Toxic ekes out a narrow win, like W. did in 2004.  But he's nowhere near where W. was (50 % approval) at this time in 2004.  Or Trump could lose in a Carter-like 1980 blowout.  Although I think that would require that things in the next two months would have to be super rocky, like they were for Carter with Iranian hostages.  With COVID-19, that's actually quite possible.

The middle scenario that seems most likely is like Carter/Ford.  Like in 1976, we'll go into it thinking Biden will win.  And he will win, handily enough.  If, like Ford, President Toxic does better than expected, it will be because of his massive turnout machine working.  By every account I've read, Trump has people knocking on doors like crazy in Trumpland.  So he has convinced a significant minority that he is the first, and therefore best, Reality TV President in the entire galaxy - ever!

A last thing about polls.  In 2016, the final RCP poll average said Hillary was three points ahead.  When the votes were counted, she ended up 2 points ahead.  So the polls were close.  Had she won nationally by 3 %, my guess is she would have eked out the narrowest of victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Some people say Biden would need as big as a 5 % margin in the national vote - which is a very solid win in any election - to be assured a Slavery Electoral College win. 

My point is that it's possible that this will narrow to a 2 to 3 % margin, which could set up another very narrow Slavery Electoral College win for President Biden.  But such a 2 to 3 % margin has not happened in the real world of Biden/Trump poling in the last year.  So as long as Democrats keep the frenzy to vote, vote, vote up, there's no obvious reason to think Biden will go from a 7 % lead to a 2 % lead, like where Hillary ended up. 

On September 16, 2016, Hillary had a lead over Trump of exactly 1 %:  44.9 % to 43.9 %.  To get the race that close, President Toxic would have to nail the debates, which he's more likely to blow, I think.  If Biden beats him at the debates like Hillary did, it's not unrealistic that he could build a double digit lead by October.  We'll see.

[stevenkesslar]

On 9/15/2020 at 7:09 PM, tassojunior said:

Wondering what you think about the fact the apparent deciding states in a close election, Pennsylvania and Michigan, are also two of the worst and slowest for counting ballots. Pennsylvania's primary took weeks to be counted and Philadelphia makes Broward County look good. Other swing states are slow counting too.

Me being me, I had about 5 different points I wanted to make.  I made all but one of them above in my prior post

So in this post, I'll focus only on the specific question you asked.  This article is worth worth reading and saving.  I view it as a guide to surviving the likely hysterics on Election Night.  On balance, I see it as good news.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin decided the 2016 election. We’ll have to wait on them in 2020.

Huge surges in mail voting will change how and when votes are counted in 2020. Here's our guide to the rules.

 

Let's start with the bad news, which you nailed.  The three states that put President Toxic over the top in 2016 likely will have little or no results on mail-in ballots on Election Night, I'm assuming.  This article says they can't start processing them early.  In Michigan it spells out that they can do signature verification as soon as the ballot is returned.  So maybe one or all three of these states will be able to actually count and report some mail-in ballots on Election Night.  But most will be counted in the days (or weeks?) that follow, it sounds like.

Meanwhile, I'm assuming the votes that are going to be counted first in these three states are the ones cast in person on Election Day.  Presumably, President Toxic will be in the lead in all three states based on ballots cast in person on Election Day and reported on Election Night. 

Let's assume President Toxic will argue he is winning, and the election is over.  He will argue if given time Xi will use the China virus to corrupt all the mail-in ballots so that Xi's puppet and sex doll, Joe Biden, wins the election fraudulently.  And if the China virus doesn't do the job, rampaging Black Marxists will bust into election headquarters and finish the job of ending both the suburbs and vote counting in America - forever.  It's a pretty grim picture, actually.  Which is why we should probably just agree that President Toxic won.  Which frees him up to save us all from the China virus and suburb-destroying Blacks.

In a situation like this, here is my sarcastic version of how Democrats should respond:

"There is only one true genius in America.  His name is Donald J. Trump.  Our great genius leader has been warning us for months that mail-in ballots are subject to fraud (except in Florida).  So we have to be grateful to our great genius leader, and do exactly what he says.  We have to count all these ballots slowly, and carefully.  And assure that every single ballot is counted accurately.  That is what the only true genius in America, Donald J. Trump, has been warning us about for months.  We need to listen to him and take the time to make sure there is no fraud."

I'm guessing there will be a massive army of lawyers in every swing state on both sides.  So this is potentially Florida 2000 on steroids all over the country.  That's okay.  The very fact that Team Toxic has gazillions of lawyers simply proves, on the ground, that the only real genius in America is Donald J. Trump.  Being the most genius man ever, he of course made sure there were lawyers everywhere to make sure there was no fraud.  So that's great.  Let's get to work.  I'd rather see lawyers in suits hovering over ballots than riots in the streets.

Now, what about other states?  

This article says that in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas the ballots can be almost completely processed by Election Day.  I know from watching election returns that in a number of primaries there was a huge dump of tabulated votes reported by networks as soon as the polls closed.  And that dump was of all the early mail-in ballots cast. 

In this instance, those ballots of very likely to favor Democrats.  In Texas, the ballots in large counties can be tallied after early voting ends, which I think is before Election Day.  So the early votes in big Texas counties are the ones most likely to be skewed toward Biden.  And, unless I'm missing something, they will be the first ones reported.

So maybe I'm missing something here.  If anyone notices a flaw in my logic, please post and correct me.  But it seems like in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, where Biden is now leading in the polls, he is likely to come out of the gate leading on Election Night.  Perhaps by a large margin.  It doesn't mean he will actually win any of those states.  But it does mean he's winning the early mail-in vote, which has already been processed and tabulated.

Let's just assume that Biden is going to lose Texas, where he is currently behind in the polls.  In other words, let's assume that Joe Biden is in the position Bernie Sanders was in in Texas earlier this year.

Super Tuesday 2020

You should scroll down CNN's coverage on that link, which is time stamped, to recall how this played out hour by hour in Texas on Election Night and the days that followed.  

That report in the photo above was time stamped 9:52 PM EST, which is I think two hours after most Texas polls were supposed to close.  So at that point, about one third of the vote was counted.  And Bernie had a 6 point lead over Biden.

By 12:14 PM EST CNN was reporting a "virtual tie" between Biden and Sanders in Texas, both at 28.6 %, with 56 % of the votes counted.

By the time a final tally was reported, I think maybe days later, Biden had won by 4.5 %, 34.5 % to 30.

Unless I'm missing something, this is very similar to what may happen in Texas on Election Night in November.  If it's true that the early votes and mail-in ballots from large (Democratic) cities are counted before in person voting even ends, and that President Toxic's voters skew heavily to in-person voting on Election Day, I think that pretty much ensures that Biden comes out of the gate with a substantial lead in Texas.  Then as the votes cast in person are counted, the lead dwindles.  Just like Bernie's lead did.  The drama in Election Night in Texas, if things go really well for Biden, is whether he is still in the lead when 80 % and 90 % of the ballots are counted. 

Meanwhile, if things stay like they are right now, Biden has an early lead in Arizona, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina - all of which will narrow as more votes are counted.  I think in Arizona, where most people vote by mail, it may not work out the same way.  McSally has a lead in early votes in 2018, I think.  But Sinema ended up winning.  But, in general, if the mail-in and early ballots are counted first, Biden is more likely than not to be leading in those states on Election Night.

Now, here's the thing.  We all know that Blacks that will destroy suburbs and terrorize poll workers and commit ballot fraud of all types if we let them will all scream, "Biden won!  Biden won!"  It will be like a very ugly riot.

But we won't fall for that, will we?  No, Sir.  We all know that Blacks want to destroy suburbs, let Biden turn America into a socialist hell, and probably punish Republicans by putting the China virus in their mail boxes.  So we're not going to let them declare that Biden won Texas or Arizona or North Carolina just because he was ahead in the polls and he lead in the initial tabulations on Election Night. 

We're going to calmly remind America that Donald J. Trump is the one and only perfect genius in America.  And this is exactly why he warned us months ago that we can't stand for election fraud.  So even though it looks like he lost in these really important states like Texas and Ohio and Florida, we're going to wait until all the votes are counted.

Again, somebody correct me if I'm missing something.  The only thing wrong with what I said is that it sounds racist as hell, because I mirrored President Toxic's own racist slurs about Blacks and suburbs.  If I'm even half right, and Biden has an early lead in these states he can afford to lose, like Texas and North Carolina and Florida, it will be very hard for President Toxic to go on TV and argue he won.  

What he likely will argue is this, "See, I was right.  Fraud!  It's all fraud."  Which just allows us to reinforce our main point.  He is the only true genius in America.  So we're all going to have to listen to our # 1 genius and count every ballot carefully to make extra sure we avoid fraud.

Like with everything else, this sorry and racist son of a bitch has already probably nailed his coffin shut with his own stupid words.  He deserves it!

[tassojunior]

@stevenkesslar

Kornacki actually has that PA(R)/AZ(D) map as a remote possibility. It would be 270 to 268 (D) and either the Omaha district or the ME2 district going (R) would make a 269-269 tie. THAT would a hot mess testing faithless elector laws. I'm not buying AZ is more (D) than PA yet. Kyrsten Sinema won the Senate but she's very much a Manchin-style (D/R). https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/29/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-democrats-060187    AZ libertarians haven't made the switch yet like CO, Latinos are being expelled from the party under Kamala, and Phoenix is no Philadelphia.    

Since I was 25 I've been hearing how Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina were going to become Dem states and assure permanent (D) presidential victories. Funny thing is in the meantime Virginia and Colorado snuck in and became (D) (while Ohio became (R)) with no prediction from the "experts".  VA became Metro DC and CO libertarians became (D). Obama's NAFTA gutted the Midwest. 

So the 538 article I cited above averages about a 90% chance in a close election Pennsylvania will be the tipping-point state, and I agree with that. I think maybe the Latino realignment is skewing the AZ polls like it did the FL polls last month. I'd even say Wisconsin is almost as likely to go (R) as Arizona is to go (D) in a close election, 10 and 11 EC vote states. 

......and Never underestimate the ability of the right-wing Democratic Party leaders to fuck up a sure win.

 

 

 IF it is close and it does come down to PA after a day or two, I really think we could be looking at a vote-counting disaster in PA that could stretch out weeks. And I doubt Trump will jump to concede like Gore did (the Dems probably will).   

Edited September 17, 2020 by tassojunior

[stevenkesslar]

Trump and Barr are creating a perfect storm for post-election violence: British journalist

Quote

“There’s no daylight between Bill Barr and the president on this,” Luce said. “They see mail-in balloting as a fraudulent activity. They know that more Democrats than Republicans by far are planning to vote by mail this year, and, again, are teeing up not just their own base, but also a lot of Republican lawyers for a lot of cases to stop counting in swing states across the country.”

So Ed Luce from Financial Times went there this morning in an article and interview on Morning Joe, which is embedded in that story above.  I didn't link Luce's article itself, because it's behind a Financial Times paywall.  But the article above quotes from it extensively and gives you the core of his thinking.

I'm glad we're talking about this.  Because talking about the "red mirage" to some degree inoculates us against it.  President Toxic and his Personal Obedient Attorney Bill Barr can do whatever they want.  I'd rather err on the side of a little too much conspiracy thinking, rather than too little.  But as Luce points out, states runs elections - not Trump or Barr.  It's not exactly clear how Barr and Republican attorneys tell a nation, "Let's all just stop counting the votes."

I'm also wondering whether people like Luce who are painting pictures of nightmares have thought this through at the 1,000 foot level, as opposed to the 30,000 foot level.  The broad picture, which is true in all three Rust Belt/Blue Wall states, is that President Toxic could open up a wide lead on election night, based on ballots cast in person.  So it makes sense that Luce is warning us that Barr may say, "Throw all the other ballots away."

It's much harder to do that if Biden is leading in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.  Those are states where all these early voting ballots and mail-in ballots are counted first based on state and local laws and practices.  Unless I'm missing something basic, it seems like Biden is likely to take an early lead in some swing states he may end up actually losing.  Like Texas, and Georgia if most Blacks there vote by mail.

To some degree Luce is confirming what I said above.  I'm assuming there will be mano a mano fighting between Republican lawyers and Democratic lawyers all over the US.  That will go on for days, maybe weeks, even possibly months.  We have been here before, like in 2000.  As long as it stays at that level, I'm not that worried.  Like in 2000, as a legal matter it could come down to things like hanging chads.  Or whether there is one more Democrat or one more Republican on SCOTUS.  We'll know what it's going to be when we get there. 

But it's hard for me to imagine how Barr says we need to stop counting votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but keep counting them in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina.  It rips the face off any pretense of decency or fairness in a way that even President Toxic usually understands will backfire. 

There's a few other things involving age that I'm not sure anyone has thought through.  One will play out in November, and the other is a longer term hypothetical.

The premise of Luce's article is that President Toxic could actually win narrowly in the Slavery Electoral College, just like in 2016, based on massive Election Day turnout by his base.  And somehow the mail-in ballots may be manipulated by lawyers.  And somehow COVID-19 may suppress voting.  Another premise built into this picture is that there more likely than not will be a big second Coronavirus wave smack dab in the middle of this.

One of the variables I worry about is that President Toxic presumably has a massive ground game based on person-to-person contact.  On Election Day, it will be a massive in person GOTV operation. And Biden has none of that.  So take Axelrod, who says that a superior ground game can win you a few points in a close election.  That could be a factor.  The Biden people say they are accomplishing the same goal by phone calls and texts.  We also know all year Biden has had the benefit of a tidal wave moving him along.  Like on Super Tuesday.  He did no organizing, had no money, and he still won Minnesota and Massachusetts.  Despite local Senators from both states being on the ballot.  So all of this is just sort of "crazy shit" that no one can predict.

I buy the idea that there could be a second wave.  It is starting in Europe now.  France and Austria have more cases than they did this Spring.  They have fewer deaths, because it's much younger people who are getting the virus.  Meanwhile, in the US, we're on a down slope from a second wave this Summer.  And we're still at 1,000 deaths a day.  So if we have a third Fall wave, like many predict, we could be back to thousands of Americans dying every day by November.

Translate that to Election Day, where there's massive turnout and a shortage of older poll workers and long lines.  Whose votes does this suppress?  Maybe I'm missing something.  But it seems like it suppresses the votes of President Toxic's supporters.  There will of course be Biden voters on Election Day.  And in states like Georgia they will do what they always do, and make it harder for Blacks to vote in person.  And in Florida I'm assuming that in polling places where they know President Toxic will run up huge margins the Trump campaign will make damn sure there are enough poll workers. 

But even when I factor in things like that, it just seems like the Republicans are building a trap for themselves.  Which is to say, Stupidest President Ever Toxic is building a trap for himself.  If we're back to 3,000 deaths a day by Election Day, and Trump needs 70 and 80 year olds in Florida to go stand in line for hours, how does that work?  I posted the picture of some youngish Mexican family in Nevada standing in line to go to a Trump rally.  They'll stand in line to vote.  The core of the Trump base will vote.  And in rural Montana where few people have COVID-19 they'll all feel safe. 

But in Florida?  We're already seeing how older White people who tend to vote Republican and didn't quite like voting for Obama are moving into what may be known next year as the "Biden coalition".  

So as a Democrat I'm worried, like Luce is, about Trump and Barr playing games as the votes are counted.  But before we even get to that point, it could be that COVID-19 is simply going to be toxic to the re-election prospects of President Toxic.  And one of the ways that could play out is that younger people who are less worried about COVID-19 will either vote by mail, or be willing to stand in long lines on Election Day.  Older voters who are 70 or 80 and are at best lukewarm about President Toxic anyway may decide voting in person isn't really a priority during a plague.

All of this is a whole bucket of unknowns and "never happened before" stuff.  I am glad Luce is sounding an alarm.  I hope Democrat lawyers are omnipresent in every swing state.  But if I had to guess, I'd say COVID-19 is more likely to suppress "soft" Trump votes on Election Day than Biden votes.

The longer term hypothetical is what impact this has on younger people.  I have nieces and nephews who will vote, but would much rather be voting for Bernie or Elizabeth.  These are the young people who were against the Iraq War and are for Black Lives Matter. 

One way I view this is through the "banana republic" lens.  So my Dad, who served in WW II, helped build a world where America can and did do lots of shit in "banana republics".  We assassinated leaders, plotted insurgencies, and messed up elections.  Iraq isn't a banana republic, exactly.  But it was a version of that.  And it blew up very badly in our face.

So one way I see what is happening now is it's turning the US itself into a quasi- banana republic for my Dad's grandkids.  President Toxic is pulling the kind of shit we used to do in other countries.  But never to ourselves.  And lots of people don't like it.  My Dad didn't like it.  In his last Presidential election before his death he refused to vote for either Trump or Hillary, even though he mostly voted Republican.  His grandkids don't like it, for sure.  It seems like a majority of Americans don't like it.  And a vast majority of young Americans don't like it.

There's some part of me that actually hopes President Toxic and his Personal Obedient Attorney Barr pull the craziest shit you can imagine on Election Night.  Because what they're essentially saying is lets count the votes of older people who voted in person, but not younger people or Black people who voted by mail.  Tell that to every young Democrat or Berniecrat in America.  Let's see whether it helps convince them to vote Republican for the rest of their lives.  What are President Toxic and Barr going to do?  Send in the National Guard to kill young Americans who are protesting because they think that their vote should be counted?  Is that the Banana Republic of America that President Toxic and Personal Obedient Attorney Barr want?

Like Luce, I'm taking a scenario and going to extremes.  But at the core of what I'm saying is truth.  These very smart Never Trump Republicans behind the Lincoln Project are saying that a lot of Americans may be disinclined to vote Republican for a very long time.  Especially younger Americans, who are gradually becoming the electoral majority.

I can project some things that will happen, somehow, in the next decade or so. 

First, we'll just get rid of the Slavery Electoral College.  And the history books will teach people that we created this Slavery Electoral College in large part so that sadistic White men could own and kill Blacks who were slaves.  That's why it was built.  That is the purpose it served.  It ensured that countless numbers of Blacks were owned, tortured, and murdered in the United States of America.

Second, we'll do something like Brazil does, but better.  They have some electronic voting system that I think now uses digital fingerprint recognition for fraud-free voting.  It massively speeds up vote counting.  People may not have liked that Bolsonaro won.  But nobody challenged the validity of the election.  And voting is compulsory.  So there is no nonsense about whether some dirty trick was used to discourage some partisans of one side or the other from voting.

So it could be that in 10 or 20 years you wake up on Election Day, pick up your phone, open an app, and securely vote.  Or, if you are old fashioned, you can still have a ballot mailed to you or vote in person.

My point is that young tech-savvy Millennials and Gen Z people who go through this shit in 2020 are not going to forget about it.  They are not going to be keen on being treated like citizens in a banana republic.  Some young voters are, of course, cheerleaders for Team Toxic.  But most aren't. 

So once again it seems like President Toxic is just doing really stupid shit that may well backfire.  Both on Election Day with older voters, and in the future with younger voters.

 

[tassojunior]

@stevenkesslar

You do realize Black leaders will be the 1st to oppose abolishing the "Slavery" Electoral College because it gives extra power to blocks in large cities in swing states. When push comes to shove in politics it's usually about power. Fuck what's right.

Millennials detest the Democratic Party and Republican Party equally. The 2020 primaries have been a real lesson to young people and independents of the corruption of the right-wing Democratic leadership and the hopelessness of working with those obnoxious fascists. Actually if you check polling all Americans detest both the parties. US corporatist political parties = oligarchy, not democracy. Just like Russia. We put on a tiny bit better show. Hillary didnt poison Bernie. (I'm she would). But it's still transparently not democracy but a sad charade. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by tassojunior

[tassojunior]

a very good article by Nate Silver on Pennsylvania:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-could-decide-the-2020-election/

In 2016 PA was 3% more (R) than the US vote. 

[stevenkesslar]

Trump's Path to Victory

Sorry to brag, but brilliant minds think alike.  Sean Trende is one of my favorite number crunchers.  He is right far more often than he is wrong.  And this is his somewhat terser and better reasoned version of what I said a few posts up.

Like me, he cites the fact that W. and Obama both won re-election with a vote share that was within a point or so of their favorability rating right before the election.  So for President Toxic to win, he's arguing his average approval rating would have to go to 46 or 47 %, as opposed to about 43 % today.  The most likely driver of this would be an accelerating economic rebound.  President Toxic's net approval rating on the economy bottomed out six weeks ago at zero.  He's now at net approval of + 3.6 % on the economy. 

So I agree with Trende.  There's not a lot of scenarios for President Toxic to win.  Trende describes the circumstances that would have to happen.  Importantly, Trende says not once, but twice, that elections are basically a referendum on the incumbent.  His entire argument reinforces everything Lichtman believes.  Voters are not stupid.  In the end, they will make a judgment based on the performance of the party in power.  That looks very bad for President Toxic.

There's a few parts of this argument where I think Trende is probably being way too optimistic for President Toxic.  If Trump gets 46 to 47 % of the vote, that means Biden gets in the low 50's in what will be a two man race.  President Toxic barely won those three Blue Wall States when Hillary won the national vote by 2 %.  So the idea that Trump could lose the national vote by 3 to 5 % is pretty stunning, on two levels.  First, it seems implausible that he could do that and still win in Pennsylvania.  Second, even if it happens, it feels wrong.  How is this called a democracy when somebody who wins 52/47 is the loser?

I'm also guessing that this a hypothetical that will never become real.  In any other Presidency, like Obama or W., going from 43 % approval to 50 % approval was not only possible.  It happened.  Trende is arguing, and I agree, that that is why W. and Obama won.  So it could happen with President Toxic.  But the odds of that seem vanishingly small.

I'm a worry wort.  So in each of the last two Presidential elections there were things that worried me.  In 2012 there were all sorts of stories about how early voting trends seemed to indicate that turnout for Obama was down from 2008, and turnout for the Republicans was up.  I never figured that out.  Maybe it was true.  Maybe it was a lie planted by Obama's people to scare Blacks into going out and voting, which they did. 

In 2016 my worry was that at least four times during 2016 the horse race polls showed Hillary and President Toxic in a dead heat.  So it seemed unlikely, but quite possible, that they could end up in a dead heat on Election Day.  As Trende notes, what everybody REALLY underestimated in 2016 was the idea that one candidate could win the election by millions of votes (Gore won by about half a million votes in 2000), and yet still be the "loser".  Hillary was expected to win by a 3 % margin.  She won by a 2 % margin.  So nobody predicted that you could win by 2 %, but lose the Slavery Electoral College anyway.

2020 is the mirror image of that.  Trende is saying, correctly I think, that President Toxic needs a 47 % approval rating to have an even outside chance of getting 47 % or so of the national vote and repeating his 2016 "victory".  How likely is that?  It has happened exactly once in his Presidency.  That was not when the economy was supposedly on fire.  It was when COVID-19 hit.  And for a brief moment everyone was at least hoping he would prove to be a competent national leader.  At that moment in March, for only a few weeks, Trump's approval rating broke the ceiling and peaked at 47.2 %.

Is this likely to happen again?  No.  It's hard imagine a scenario where President Toxic will be viewed as competent on handling COVID-19 by a majority of Americans.  His approval rating on COVID has settled into the familiar Trump Fantasyland.  Give or take 40 % will seemingly believe anything he says.  Give or take 55 % say he's done a bad job on COVID-19. 

President Toxic clearly thinks that Fantasy Fauci will have a Fantasy Vaccine by October.  One shot and you're done.  And by November you're back at work and Coronavirus is a distant memory.  Back in the real world, what's more likely is that by Election Day we'll be closer to the 3000 Americans dying every day than the 1000 Americans dying every day we are at now. 

How does it help President Toxic win when he is essentially a Viral Bin Laden whose incompetence is repeating a viral 9/11 every single fucking day in America?  Like with Bin Laden, that's probably a political death sentence.  If I had to bet, COVID-19 is more likely to drive Trump's approval rating lower in the next few months, not higher.  If you leave off those few weeks in March, Trump's approval right now is actually about as high as it gets - even when the economy was supposedly "perfect".

Even if you assume Joe Biden is senile, he should have an easy time debating on this.  Before he opens his mouth, and even if he is stuttering and senseless, 55 % of Americans will agree with him when he says President Toxic did a miserable job leading on COVID-19.  One reason to keep hammering that is to make sure that only about 40 % of Americans disagree with Biden on that point.

The other reason to do that is it builds the bridge to the economy, which is the only thing President Toxic has left between him and something like a 1980 Carter collapse.  Slightly over 40 % of Americans also believe the economy was glorious before COVID-19.  And it will be again, as long as we don't elect China Joe - who is a closet socialist.   Everybody else gets that we can't rebuild the economy in the middle of a plague that actually does exist.

I'm very ambivalent about whether Biden should make a case about the economy.  If Lichtman and Abramowitz and these other historians are right, the verdict is already in.  Even though the jury has not delivered it yet.  This is a referendum on President Toxic.  He is going to lose.  His best hope of not losing is to make this a debate about crazy socialists.  I voted for Bernie knowing by the time I voted he was going to lose the primary.  It was a symbolic vote about the future.  If I knew my vote would give President Toxic the socialist foil he wanted, I may have voted for Warren or even Biden instead. 

Mostly, I think Biden's best play is to keep hammering on what a clear majority of Americans believe:  1)  Trump fucked up COVID;  2) Until someone competent fixes it, the economy can't recover.  President Toxic's other ace in the hole was to replay "Crooked Hillary" as "Crooked Joe" or "Senile Joe."  That failed, too, He's "Decent Joe" to the people he needs to win.  I think he mostly just has to wear a mask, smile, and say President Toxic is a loser who fucked up.  (Not verbatim, of course.)

Here's one other thing I keep throwing in, since we're all about Pennsylvania now:

All Employees: Manufacturing in Pennsylvania

All Employees: Total Nonfarm in Pennsylvania

If you haven't done it, it's interesting to click on "states" and compare Pennsylvania to other states.  It may explain some things.

Pennsylvania is like every other state I've looked at in one important way.  When times are good, there's lots of job growth.  So in the second chart, you can see continuous job growth from 2010 to 2020.  You can argue whether it grew more under Obama or President Toxic.  But it was roughly the same rate of growth.  One reason Biden will probably win is that the "winners" in this picture - people with colleges degrees who have good jobs and live in cities or suburbs - lean heavily to Biden.  Everything Trump does that is red meat to his base pretty much alienates them. 

Meanwhile, if you look at manufacturing, Pennsylvania is not like any other state I looked at.  In Wisconsin and Michigan, and certainly in California, "recovery" meant more factory jobs.  It didn't get those states back to where they were in the 1990's with good paying factory jobs.  But there were tens of thousands of new factory jobs.  Biden is doing a good job of talking about exactly what him and Obama did in Michigan.  And how many tens of thousands of auto factory and related jobs that saved or restored.  In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, there's no basis in reality for either Biden or President Toxic to talk about how they created lots of factory jobs,  They just didn't.  Trump can say anything he wants.  But it's just bullshit.

This is where I'd rather have the election be a referendum on President Toxic.  Period.  Because he failed.  If the question is factory jobs in Pennsylvania, he failed.  He failed.  He failed.  End of story.  Mostly that's what I want to hear from Biden.

That said, I know I'm being too simplistic.  That ad is mostly Trump's greatest hits.  It's a negative message built on fear.  Biden will raise your taxes.  Biden will destroy jobs.  And, of course, Biden is a socialist.  Same Republican bullshit.

I suspect in the debates Biden will reprise Bill Clinton's one word bumper sticker on this issue from the 2012 DNC:  "arithmetic". Who knew that Republicans genetically suck at math?  They keep saying tax cuts to fat cats will create millions of jobs and a surplus.  Every single time, it create trillion dollar deficits and few jobs.  Just look at February 2020, right before COVID.  Trillion dollar deficit?  Check.  No new factory jobs in Pennsylvania (or Wisconsin or Michigan) in the last year?  Check.  Same bullshit.  Same lies.  We've heard this recipe for failure before.  President Toxic is simply better than most at figuring out how to lose.

As much as I'd rather Biden's # 1 goal would be to make this a referendum rather than a choice, I like this ad.  President Toxic will says it's bullshit, of course.  But it is a positive message of hope.  It's not just Trump bashing, which is what Biden does need to be careful about.  And Biden has already proven in September in Detroit that he can ground this message in what he actually did in places like Detroit.  Obama put him in charge, and he went in and saved or created lots of factory jobs.  Even if Biden is lying, it sounds real and detailed in a way President Toxic never sounds real or detailed.

Mostly, Biden needs to just keep talking about COVID and tie it to the economy.  And say we need someone who isn't a loser who can go in and fix this mess.  Just like Obama and Biden did in 2009.  40 % of America doesn't see the mess.  Or they think it's a little mess and before long the most perfect President ever will get us back to normal.  About 50 to 55 % of Americans just ain't buying what Joe would call ............................ wait for it .......................................... malarkey.

There was a theory that "law and order" was going to hurt Biden, like in Wisconsin.  There's no evidence that it is happening.  The polls suggests that whether you cut it as racial justice or defusing violence or even just "crime", Biden is winning the issue.  Even if he's not winning, it's not helping President Toxic claw up to anything close to winning numbers.

I'll make an optimistic prediction.  The "economy" is going to end up the same way.  It may not help Biden.  But it won't hurt him.  So far, we've mostly heard one side of the story:  President Toxic's.  He has the megaphone.  And rightly or wrongly, the message of the DNC was not "It's the economy, stupid."  It was, "It's the decency, stupid."  Joe made sure, apparently effectively, that he's not "Crooked Hillary" in a suit.

Here's the factual bottom line.  Even if you blame the Great Recession on Biden, Pennsylvania went from 5.7 million jobs in January 2009 to 5.916 million jobs in January 2017.  That's a net gain of over 200,000 jobs in Pennsylvania.  If you cut Biden slack and focus only on how many jobs came back after the Great Recession ended, it's more like 350,000 new jobs.  Under President Toxic, Pennsylvania went from 5.916 million jobs in January 2017 to 5.525 million jobs today.  That's a net loss of almost 400,000 jobs.  Pennsylvania has fewer employed people today than it did at the very bottom of the Great Recession.

President Toxic can and will spout all kinds of bullshit about the greatest economy ever.  All Biden has to due is keep tying it back to COVID, and reality.  The first thing that has to happen is we have to end the plague.  Trump can't even figure out how to put a mask on.  Or why others should.  He's gone from Clorox treatments to his Fantasy Fauci who is saying we'll have a miracle cure in October.  Even though at least about 55 % of Americans know we won't.

Any way Biden asked the "four years ago" question is going to be devastating to President Toxic, and drill the message home like it did with Carter.  Do you feel safer than you did four years ago?  Are you better off than you were four years ago?  Are there more factory jobs in Pennsylvania than there were four years ago?  Are there more jobs in Pennsylvania than there were four years ago?  And when this guy who promised you millions of new jobs and instead destroyed them makes a whole bunch of new empty promises, are you going to believe him?

What the horse race polls have been implicitly saying all year is that Biden does not need to win on the economy in order to win The Presidency.  But so far he hasn't really tried.  I wouldn't be surprised if by Election Day we're back up to well over 1000 Americans dying a day.  If there is no more relief for unemployed and struggling Americans, that won't help the economy recover.  Whatever recovery there is could actually stall out, as more people struggle to pay mortgages or rent.  So I wouldn't be surprised if by Election Day Biden is winning on the economy, too.

[Suckrates]

Trump AINT gonna let Biden win....One way or another, Trump will wreak havoc and not go quietly.  And then we need to deal with those crazy Trumpers who wont accept their Gods loss !   Its gonna be a mess, and a long way to a confirmed Biden victory. 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, tassojunior said:

@stevenkesslar

You do realize Black leaders will be the 1st to oppose abolishing the "Slavery" Electoral College because it gives extra power to blocks in large cities in swing states. When push comes to shove in politics it's usually about power. Fuck what's right.

Millennials detest the Democratic Party and Republican Party equally. The 2020 primaries have been a real lesson to young people and independents of the corruption of the right-wing Democratic leadership and the hopelessness of working with those obnoxious fascists. Actually if you check polling all Americans detest both the parties. US corporatist political parties = oligarchy, not democracy. Just like Russia. We put on a tiny bit better show. Hillary didnt poison Bernie. (I'm she would). But it's still transparently not democracy but a sad charade. 

If I'm obsessed with something, it's not polls.  It's details. 

I learned a long time ago not to take anything you say literally.  And I'm not the kind of guy that likes to shoot fish in a barrel.  But just for fun, can you hand me the gun?

I think your point is that over time trust in government in general, and political parties is particular, has declined.  Back in 2000, after two terms of Clintonism, about half of Americans trusted government.  That was the highest it had been since the 1960's, before Viet Nam and Watergate.  And as you can see above a majority of Americans viewed both political parties favorably.  Now it works out that a majority of Americans view at least one political party favorably, when you add the two together.  But neither party is viewed favorably by a majority of Americans on its own.  And you are right.  That's even more true among Millennials.

That said, can you please post the poll that shows "all Americans detest both parties."  I haven't seen that poll.

I'm not Black, so I won't speak for Blacks.  But I highly doubt they would disagree with my points - either about dumping the Slavery Electoral College, or its foundation in the support of slavery and racism.

REGGIE JACKSON: THE ROLES RACISM AND SLAVERY PLAYED IN THE CREATION OF OUR ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM

Jackson is Black, was born in Pennsylvania, and seems to be making his argument to voters in Wisconsin.  I agree with everything he says, except this one line:  "There is no way to argue cogently that these facts are not true."  Unfortunately, Reggie, there is.  Just ask President Toxic, and his followers.  They'll figure out a way.

About 75 % of Blacks see President Toxic as racist.  My guess is if asked they would agree with Jackson.  Meaning they would prefer to see the system that empowered slave owners and now empowers racist President Toxic removed. 

My guess is even the Blacks who DID NOT vote in Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin would want it removed.  They obviously didn't feel it was worth the effort to vote for Hillary.  But that doesn't mean they wanted a racist to be President, who likes to empower racism and defend White Supremacists and Nazis and White vigilantism.   On the face of it, the Slavery Electoral College made it so that the overwhelming majority of US Blacks - including something like 90 % of Blacks in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - could not have the President they actually wanted and voted for.

This is obviously not the time to have this debate.  The immediate thing is I'll be curious to see how far President Toxic and his Personal Obedient Attorney Barr are willing to go in November.  I'll repeat what I said above.  The further they go, and the more shocking it is, the more it may facilitate pissing the majority of Americans off.  And putting them in a mood to finally nail the coffin shut on this particular legacy of slavery and racism.

Mostly, I hope Millennials keep doing what they are doing.  In 2008 they thought electing Obama was enough.  In 2008 they were a significant but minority voice in a large coalition.  Add Gen Z and they are on their way to becoming a majority.  If they are now in the streets in a middle of a plague, that's a pretty clear signal that they have woken up. 

I don't know this for a fact.  But I do believe that one reason that the racial barriers have fallen and young Whites see the world more like young Blacks than ever before is that they probably grew up closer together than ever before.  And they probably shared many of the same experiences.  Including being successful but trapped in college debt if things went well.  And including being on the losing end of a mostly "winner take all" economy if things went less well.

Every month I'm increasingly convinced that the future is going to be more like all earthquake all the time.  To go to Lichtman, whose goal was to develop a system that could predict political earthquakes as effectively as a system that predicted real earthquakes, I think he is right.  An earthquake is coming soon to an election near you.  But I don't think it's the big one.  I suspect it's just the beginning.  (2016 was the actual beginning.  Electing President Toxic was an earthquake, too.)    It may be a series of moderate earthquakes.  Or it may be that the big one is coming in 2024 or 2032.  Who knows?  But it's coming.  And the Millennials and Gen Z will drive it.

Fun fact.  Clinton, then W., and now President Toxic were all born in the Summer of 1946.  So they were all the start of the Baby Boom.  Obama was 1961 - like me, the end of the Baby Boom.  Biden will break the chain, but in the wrong direction.  He was born in 1942.  Interestingly, Kamala as President would restore the Baby Boom hegemony.  She was born in 1964 - the last Baby Boom year.  When do we get a Millennial President?

With the benefit of hindsight, I like Mayor Pete slightly more than I did during the primary.  I liked him during the primary as a candidate.  But he's basically now set up as what I think of us our first openly Gay national Democrat.  I think Senator Baldwin was the first openly lesbian national Democrat.  So I'm glad that he did well, and that he has a promising future.  That said, I mention him because I would bet he'll never be President.

As it worked out in 2020, it served his interest to kind of disavow the Bernie essay he wrote as a smart kid.  It wouldn't shock me if Biden and Mayor Pete actually had a discussion - or even a vague understanding - about how Pete would be the one putting the political knife into Bernie in the run up to Super Tuesday.  I may be giving Biden's ability to manipulate circumstances too much credit.  Regardless, it worked out that Mayor Pete did better than most expected, by sort of being Young Gay Joe Biden. 

Mayor Pete won lots of things.  He did not win the moral legitimacy to speak for his generation.  That still belong to Bernie and AOC, among others.  It's not a shocker that Young Gay Joe Biden tended to do well among older Democrats.  

I'll keep repeating that the Democratic Socialism Show turned out to not quite be ready for prime time in 2020.  Had Bernie won the primary, Lichtman is saying he would win in November.  His theory is that voters will reject President Toxic for almost any reasonable alternative.  It would be interesting if we could test that out in the alternative universe President Toxic and his followers live in.  They of course believe Americans would overwhelming reject radical socialism.  I wouldn't want to bet either way on that one.

Someday the Democratic Socialism Show will be ready for prime time, I expect.  It feels to me like we are seeing the previews.  It actually gives me optimism.  I feel like it's a good show.  And I want to be around for it, with a front row seat.