Members Riobard Posted February 26, 2020 Members Posted February 26, 2020 First (flagged) case, São Paulo, a man in early 60’s who had travelled in Italy. Inevitable, I suppose. Quote
Members likeohmygod Posted February 26, 2020 Members Posted February 26, 2020 Yep... Still it's like 1 person over 200 million. I would not be that worried about the spread of coronavirus, which I strongly believe could be already everywhere. Still it's a flu... If you're one of those people at risk of dying because of the consequences of a bad flu, chances are you're not doing sex tourism Latbear4blk, brockmiller and Badboy81 2 1 Quote
Members Latbear4blk Posted February 26, 2020 Members Posted February 26, 2020 Dying from this pandemia is not one of my concerns. However, planning a trip to Brazil in April, I am slightly concern about quarantine and flights cancelations. Quote
Members Riobard Posted February 26, 2020 Author Members Posted February 26, 2020 Much will depend on the ‘severity pyramid’. The mortality rate is more influenced by intensive care sustainability than baseline vulnerability to acuteness, eg, age, co-morbidity. In other words, the current mortality rate is attenuated by complex ICU care for a much higher percentage of infected persons than the mortality rate is inflated by vulnerability factors for the percentage that ultimately succumbs. This is not just 2-3% of those infected dropping dead on the street outside the context of complex care. I believe the hospital admission rate is about 20%, way way higher than typical non-pandemic flu seasons. Pre Covid-19 ICU/ventilator expenditures already account for greater than 10% of total health care costs. If the level of virulence persists and prevalence escalates, one may not be overestimating worry about capacity in terms of high quality pull-out-the-stops intervention. The figures are still too early for predicting risk factors for death and even earlier for predicting patient variables related to ICU requirements. It is simplistic to think in age terms in relation to care needs. In seasonal flu research, the probability of ICU admission and mechanical ventilation necessity is not very different comparing children, elderly, and adults as a whole. Quote
Members Walker Posted February 28, 2020 Members Posted February 28, 2020 I had two french kisses with strangers at balladas tonight. Oh well... Quote
Members pauleiro Posted February 28, 2020 Members Posted February 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, Walker said: I had two french kisses with strangers at balladas tonight. Oh well... You are safe : there are not many cases of covid19 in France at the moment :-)) Walker 1 Quote
Members Bucknaway1614502762 Posted February 28, 2020 Members Posted February 28, 2020 I arrive in May and already, the the Airbnb I rented last trip is already booked by someone. I'm not afraid but I may spend the $50 for trip insurance incase I have to cancel my flight. Quote
Badboy81 Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 11:47 AM, likeohmygod said: Yep... Still it's like 1 person over 200 million. I would not be that worried about the spread of coronavirus, which I strongly believe could be already everywhere. Still it's a flu... If you're one of those people at risk of dying because of the consequences of a bad flu, chances are you're not doing sex tourism Great fucking points....while people are losing their minds and on red alert....we have tons of other shit to worry about....Besides the flu Quote
jer12345z Posted February 29, 2020 Posted February 29, 2020 18 hours ago, Bucknaway1614502762 said: I arrive in May and already, the the Airbnb I rented last trip is already booked by someone. I'm not afraid but I may spend the $50 for trip insurance incase I have to cancel my flight. Just note some insurers may not cover cancellation caused by the coronavirus. Quote
Members pauleiro Posted February 29, 2020 Members Posted February 29, 2020 Just now, jer12345z said: Just note some insurers may not cover cancellation caused by the coronavirus. Particularly cancellation caused by fear of coronavirus : either there is coronavirus, your flight is cancelled and insurance is of no use or flight is operated and you certainly have no valid reason for cancelling ... Quote
Members Bucknaway1614502762 Posted February 29, 2020 Members Posted February 29, 2020 I still have time to choose cancel for any reason insurance https://www.insuremytrip.com/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAtOjyBRC0ARIsAIpJyGPEnceWylsE0noMrG0wf4xHybZdMYk0UvhMrYTk1N6opu6wePGoOTYaAmK1EALw_wcB Quote
Members Bucknaway1614502762 Posted February 29, 2020 Members Posted February 29, 2020 Outside of China, is there anyone dying from this virus? I hear of a lot of cases but I don't hear of a lot of deaths. Quote
Members ncc1701d Posted March 1, 2020 Members Posted March 1, 2020 Same here..all booked for April and concerned about flight cancellations and potential need to self quarantine afterwards! Quote
Members ncc1701d Posted March 1, 2020 Members Posted March 1, 2020 15 hours ago, Bucknaway1614502762 said: Outside of China, is there anyone dying from this virus? I hear of a lot of cases but I don't hear of a lot of deaths. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Quote
Members msclelovr Posted March 1, 2020 Members Posted March 1, 2020 There have been several deaths outside of China. At this stage, of course, it may be that the number of cases is under-reported as there have been many instances worldwide of people having the virus but having only mild symptoms or being symptom-free. It’s difficult to estimate the rate of mortality. The BBC has broken it down by deciles of age. So far it seems to be 14% for people in their 80s; 8% for people in their 70s; and 4% for people in their 60s. Younger people seem to be little affected. I still travel a lot. But I’m looking at my future travel plans as I wonder if I would want to possibly be quarantined in a foreign city/country and not allowed to return home. Quote
Members pauleiro Posted March 1, 2020 Members Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, msclelovr said: I still travel a lot. But I’m looking at my future travel plans as I wonder if I would want to possibly be quarantined in a foreign city/country and not allowed to return home. That is exactly my own concern and plan Quote
