Can Warren Seal The Deal?

[stevenkesslar]

 

Elizabeth Warren's rising popularity has been limited to Democrats

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A new Quinnipiac University poll out this week finds Sen. Elizabeth Warren with a 74% favorable rating and a 10% unfavorable rating among potential Democratic primary voters. Her favorable rating is up significantly from 61% in May, while her unfavorable rating is down from 16%.

 

Quinnipiac was kind enough to provide me with a crosstab of how non-potential Democratic voters (i.e. those who are not Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents) feel about Warren.

 

This month, she comes in with an 11% favorable rating and a 70% unfavorable rating among this group. That shouldn't be too surprising, given that, while some of this group are independents who don't lean toward either party, much of it is made up of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. We simply should expect Warren (or any Democrat) to struggle with this group.

 

What's interesting is the trendline. Back in Quinnipiac's May poll, Warren's favorable rating with non-potential Democratic primary voters was 8%, compared to an unfavorable rating of 66%. A CNN poll a month later put Warren with an 11% favorable and 66% unfavorable rating with this group.

 

Put another way, Warren has not really seen any improvement with non-potential Democratic primary voters over the summer, even as she has dramatically improved with Democrats.

 

Now compare Warren's numbers with that of her chief Democratic rival, Biden. He's become considerably less popular with Democrats. His favorable rating with potential Democratic primary voters from May to now has gone from 79% to 72% and his unfavorable has gone from 14% to 19%.

 

Among non-potential Democratic voters, the fall off has not been as dramatic. Biden's favorable rating remains steady at 22%. His unfavorable rating is up from 63% in May to 70% now.

These trend lines are pretty clear.  What do other people think.  Can Warren seal the deal?

In the Democratic primary, the one huge problem she still faces is the Black vote.  There's a brand new poll out on South Carolina.  Biden is leading - no surprise.  And Warren's Black support is still in the single digits.  That said, if she hits home runs in the three states before South Carolina, history suggests it's likely to turn into a grand slam.  (In South Carolina, Warren and Biden are now tied among Whites.  So the Black vote pretty much is the last big domino that may or may not fall for her.)

History suggests that these horse race polls are more or less useless a year out in predicting who is actually going to win.  That said, the favorabilility ratings turn out to be much more reliable - moreso when they show a clear trend.  I watched in horror for two years as Hillary Clinton's favorable ratings went from 10+ percent net positive before emailgate to 10+ percent net negative in almost every poll by Fall 2016.

So the relevant trend to me is that Warren's rating is good and getting slowly better, and Biden's rating is good and getting slowly worse.  I think what matters most is that it shows that when Warren tries to connect with voters, it seems like she is succeeding.  When Biden tries, it doesn't work as well.  And this is before what will likely be months of "Is Biden Corrupt Or Not?" constant news.  For now, it's a battle between Warren's endless selfie lines and Biden's alleged sleaze.  Guess who is likely to win?

The thing I've been worried about all year is that Warren's favorable ratings are NOT that great outside the Democratic bubble.  This article reinforces that.  As it states, there is no reason to think any Democrat is going to have much appeal to Republicans or right-leaning Independents.  And compared to Warren (66 % unfavorable), Biden has gone from being slightly less unpopular (63 %) to slightly more unpopular (70 %) among this group.   The one real advantage Biden still has is that his favorable rating among this group (22 %) is double that of Warren's (11 %).

Here's another thing about Warren that seems worrisome on the face of it:

https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings-q2-19-2/

If you click on the "most unpopular" tab, you will learn that Warren is the 5th least popular Senator in the US right now.  (Bernie is the 2nd most popular, down slightly from his normal spot in most of these quarterly polls as the most popular.)  She is 49 % favorable, 40 % unfavorable among Massachusetts voters in this poll.  That sort of matches with her 2018 Senate race, which she won 60/40.  So to me the relevant question is:  is it any surprise that 40 % of voters in Massachusetts don't like her?  And is there really any particularly good reason for me to care?  What matters to me more is that she doesn't go down like Hillary:  win the popular vote by millions of votes, and lose the electoral college by tens of thousands of votes.

Here's a fun fact that I think may be barely relevant to this discussion.  Can you guess what the 10 most popular Governors in the US all have in common right now?

https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings-q2-19/

Answer:  they are all Republicans.

My hunch is that in a deeply polarized America, it is not really all that hard to be a popular Republican Governor in a red state like Wyoming (# 5) or Arkansas (# 7).  I give Abbot and DeSantis credit for managing to come in at the bottom of the Top 10 from big "purplish" states like Florida and Texas.  But the truly interesting thing about that list is that the top four most popular Governors are all Republicans from pretty much solidly blue New England:  Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Vermont.  Biden's allies have been making a big deal of the fact that even if Warren got 60 % of the vote in Massachusetts in 2018, she substantially underperformed Charlie Baker, the Republican Governor. (He won 67/33).

That said, here's another fun fact:  the polls also show that Republican Governors Baker and Scott, and perhaps Hogan, are actually more popular among Democrats in their state than Republicans.  So one way to look at this is that Democratic Senator Warren is not quite as popular with Republicans in Massachusetts as Republican Governor Baker is with Democrats in Massachusetts.  Can someone explain to me why I am not surprised?

Okay, I'll answer my own question.  I'm not surprised because Baker and Scott are pragmatic moderates, as well as the first two Republican Governors to come out in favor of an impeachment inquiry.  Name one Republican Senator that is saying what they are.

2 From Northeast Become 1st Republican Governors to Support Impeachment Inquiry Against Trump

There's two reasons I said these polls about Republican Governors may be barely relevant to Warren's prospects.

On the impeachment thread, I posted this really great colloquy between Morning Joe and historian Jon Meacham a few morning ago.  They were discussing a new poll that shows the public split on impeachment 43/43.  Meacham said that in this deeply polarized national environment, expecting some poll to show the public in favor of impeachment 60/40 is just unrealistic.  He said something like, "50/50 is probably the new 60/40."

I think that applies to Warren's candidacy, as well.  In a state like Massachusetts where a moderate Governor is pushing pragmatic solutions and compromise, I can see 60/40 or better still being an option.  And Warren, running for Senate, did in fact win 60/40 last year.  But at the national level, running against Trump, I think 50/50 or so is closer to what's real. 

The idea that we want a Bubba Bill Clinton-type candidate that's going to triangulate and schmooze from the middle doesn't make any sense to me right now.  In fact, part of what I actually liked about Hillary in 2016 (and why I voted for her over Sanders in the primary) is that she was sort of running as Ms. Bubba.  It didn't work.  Trump focused on exciting his base, and he won.  Warren is the most exciting candidate out there right now.  That matters a lot to me.

The second reason I think those polls on Republican Governors may be barely relevant is that Warren herself actually used to be a Republican until a few decades ago.  And while she is being shrewdly silent about that (so far), my guess is that she will do what all Democrats do, if nominated:  she will moderate.  And one way she can do that is to talk more about her roots in Oklahoma as a Main Street capitalist.  Which is exactly what Governors like Baker and Scott are.  Which help explains why they are so popular in their states.

Warren is hardly running on a centrist agenda.  But she is hardly a socialist.  The argument that is being made by smart talking heads right now (like anybody on Morning Joe) is that some of her positions make her unelectable.  Okay.  But if that is true, it's only showing up in the minds of Morning Joe talking heads, as opposed to in the actual polls.

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Of course, we'll have to see how this week's impeachment news may shift these numbers. Biden's numbers could slink southward as Republicans attack him.

 

But for now, Biden's maintaining his electability edge over Warren.

I'm not even sure if those final sentences from the CNN article above are still true.  There's only three national horse race polls completed since Sept. 16, when Ukrainegate first started to hit.  Biden barely leads Trump in one (+ 1 - Emerson) and is losing to Trump in another ( - 4 - Rasmussen).  Warren is barely beating Trump in one:  ( + 2 - Emerson).  Whatever perceived electability advantage Biden once had has been gradually fading.  Ukrainegate is probably likely to blow it off the map.

But like I said, the horse race polls in particular mean next to squat at this point.  

My biggest reason for thinking Warren can close the deal boils down to two words: political judgment.  Yeah, she fucked up on Pocahontas.  But even that is now turning into an example of how she stumbles, and then she persists.  Mostly my perception of her is that she has been remarkably good all through her career at figuring out what works, and what doesn't.  She goes with what works, and bags what doesn't - quickly.  Which is why she tends to win, as well as get shit done.  She has a habit of punching above her weight (see Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fight.)

With Trump I'm tempted to say the opposite.  Yeah, lightning struck in 2016, and some of that was his feral political judgment.  But the guy has mostly been good at keeping his favorability rating down at about 40 % or so.  And that will matter come Election Day 2020, just like it mattered on Election Day 2018.  What happened in the last week is no surprise.  Trump is the kind of corrupt guy whose political judgment always suggested he was more likely than not to self-impeach.  The biggest thing that changed is that all the guys that maintained the guardrails like Kelly and McMaster and McGahn are now gone.

There's other huge things, of course, like whether we are headed into a recession, and what facts the impeachment inquiry actually turn up.

But I'm gradually persuading myself that Warren does have a plan to win, and she will persist.  I think she is poised to be able to close the deal.

Edited September 29, 2019 by stevenkesslar

[stevenkesslar]

A few interesting tidbits as Warren surges:

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Early-state success is central to Warren’s strategy — she just announced a $10 million TV ad buy in the four early states. But she’s also laying groundwork in Super Tuesday states, including hiring a state director in California, the biggest state voting March 3.

“We’re targeting our resources to invest in places that will be critical to keeping the House, taking back the U.S. Senate, and regaining ground in key state legislatures in 2020,” Roger Lau, Warren’s campaign manager, said in a recent public memo.

It is encouraging to think we're not even into 2020, and Warren seemingly has a plan to run in a way that pulls the Senate, House, and local Democrats along.  From the memo referenced above:

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Because of redistricting after 2020, Democratic gains in Congress and in the state legislatures could be erased if we let Republican-controlled state legislatures draw gerrymandered maps for 2022. So we’re putting boots on the ground in places like Michigan and Minnesota, which will help flip state legislatures to Democratic control. And we’re continuing to build the future of our party by investing in states like Texas and Florida. Remember: this election is about more than just beating Donald Trump — he’s just the worst symptom of a corrupt system. If we want to make big, structural change, we need to make sure Democrats control the U.S. House and Senate and win important gubernatorial and state legislative races across the country.

Of course, it's a no brainer that both Warren and Biden want to be perceived as a dream candidate to put at the top of the ticket.  But is she?

Way too early to tell, of course.  But there's a few interesting polls that hint at why maybe she could be.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/10/03/statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-voters-support-impeachment/

In Ohio, any of the three leading Democrats would beat Trump in that new poll:  both Biden and Sanders 53/47, and Warren 52/48.  Ohio is a state I already think of as a lost cause for Democrats.  And it has no Senate race in 2020.  So what the poll suggests is no matter which of the three Democrats nominate, Trump may have to play defense in Ohio to win a must-win state for him.

Meanwhile, check out this poll from Arizona:

https://www.changeresearch.com/crooked-change-arizona-poll

If this poll is right, Warren is now way out front in the Democratic primary there.  She has 35 % of the vote, compared to 19 % for Bernie and only 15 % for Biden.

This poll shows the Presidential election is a statistical toss up.  The only other poll done since Warren's surge started (released on Sept. 18) also showed both her and Biden in a statistical tie in horse race match ups with Trump.  Arizona, of course, also has one of the key Senate races that will determine whether Mitch McConnell gets to keep his job as Majority Leader.

The poll doesn't break down who is supporting Warren.  But the pattern that seems to be emerging is that she holds her own in the Rust belt states Trump must win, and where "working class" Joe and populist Bernie supposedly have an advantage over her.  That may have been true six months ago.  But any advantage the men had is quickly disappearing.

Meanwhile, Warren may have a growing advantage among educated women who are among the key swing voters that turned the House in 2018 and may turn the Senate in 2020.  It's too early to tell.  But the handwriting that is starting to appear on the wall is she may play well in those relatively affluent suburban districts in states like Arizona, as well as North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.  It's definitely something to watch out for.

Edited October 3, 2019 by stevenkesslar

[tassojunior]

I don't see Warren carrying Macomb County in a general. 

[TotallyOz]

I like Warren but I can't see her sealing the deal. She needs something but I am not sure what. I like her policies but she is going to have a lot of negatives. I don't know what she can or should do. I think someone in the middle will sell better to the middle of America.

[RA1]

3 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

I like Warren but I can't see her sealing the deal. She needs something but I am not sure what. I like her policies but she is going to have a lot of negatives. I don't know what she can or should do. I think someone in the middle will sell better to the middle of America.

Who in the "middle" might win the Democrat nomination?  And, don't say Joe B, he now has too much publicized baggage.

Best regards,

RA1

[TotallyOz]

Just now, RA1 said:

Who in the "middle" might win the Democrat nomination?  And, don't say Joe B, he now has too much publicized baggage.

Best regards,

RA1

There is this amazing lady named Hillary Clinton.   I would love to see her back in the scene. But, I did say 1 year ago I did not want that and there were tons of others. But, I am open to her.

I also like Pete and Castro. Pete is at the top of my list and in the middle. You disagree?

[RA1]

1 minute ago, TotallyOz said:

There is this amazing lady named Hillary Clinton.   I would love to see her back in the scene. But, I did say 1 year ago I did not want that and there were tons of others. But, I am open to her.

I also like Pete and Castro. Pete is at the top of my list and in the middle. You disagree?

I like Pete but can he win the nomination?  

Best regards,

RA1

[TotallyOz]

Just now, RA1 said:

I like Pete but can he win the nomination?  

Best regards,

RA1

I think it is possible. He is consistent and not getting into pissing contests. And, him being gay does not hurt him as most of the anti-gay vote will go for Trump anyway. He is middle and religious. He seems very clean. But, I don't know about that either. I'd love to him start to surge in the polls to see where things stand.

I don't think you can count Bernie out. He is not a democrat for sure. But, he has a lot of support. His heart attack did not help him. But, Trump is and old fat white man as well. I'm tired of that from both parties. I want young and hung or at least young and no balls (a woman).

I also really like Yang. He is smart. But, not electable. I still think we need to recruit Oprah.

[RA1]

1 minute ago, TotallyOz said:

I think it is possible. He is consistent and not getting into pissing contests. And, him being gay does not hurt him as most of the anti-gay vote will go for Trump anyway. He is middle and religious. He seems very clean. But, I don't know about that either. I'd love to him start to surge in the polls to see where things stand.

I don't think you can count Bernie out. He is not a democrat for sure. But, he has a lot of support. His heart attack did not help him. But, Trump is and old fat white man as well. I'm tired of that from both parties. I want young and hung or at least young and no balls (a woman).

I also really like Yang. He is smart. But, not electable. I still think we need to recruit Oprah.

Oprah is the "perfect" socialist.  She gives away cars with other people's money and then takes the credit for being generous.

Best regards,

RA1

[TotallyOz]

6 minutes ago, RA1 said:

Oprah is the "perfect" socialist.  She gives away cars with other people's money and then takes the credit for being generous.

Best regards,

RA1

I like Socialists. I just don't think the country is ready for one.

[Candyman]

12 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

There is this amazing lady named Hillary Clinton.   I would love to see her back in the scene. But, I did say 1 year ago I did not want that and there were tons of others. But, I am open to her.

I also like Pete and Castro. Pete is at the top of my list and in the middle. You disagree?

No, no, no!  Not Hillary again.  She turns off so many people.

A political insider just told me today that team Hillary has recently been quietly spreading the word that she may enter the 2020 race if Biden melts down.

[TotallyOz]

Yes, yes, yes. Hillary again. Love her! Love her way too much!

 

[Candyman]

They don't know if she is serious or not, but that is what some of her people are saying. 

[TotallyOz]

23 minutes ago, Candyman said:

They don't know if she is serious or not, but that is what some of her people are saying. 

If Biden goes down, I can easily see her as what she thinks is her only option.

[MiguelMichel]

No. Next question.