Warren on Colbert

[AdamSmith]

 

[stevenkesslar]

Thanks for posting that, Adam.  That's a wonderful video.

Since I'm being characteristically verbose on another thread, I'll try to be uncharacteristically brief here.  Warren's message of unity and jumping in the trenches together actually fits nicely with the themes I was pushing on the other thread.  I love that she even gives a shout out to how the LGBTQ community changed America.

Part of what is working is she refuses to go negative.  It's implicit rather than explicit in this video.  But she didn't take Colbert's bait and go after Biden.  The media has been going on and on about how there is going to be a showdown between Bernie and Elizabeth.  The last debate they went on and on about how there was going to be a showdown between Elizabeth and Joe.  She just keeps being positive and inspiring, and tells us how she wants to bring people together and lead. 

Castro, on the other hand, tanked after he attacked Biden.  There's a big lesson there.

She is winning the hearts of America.  One selfie and one pinkie at a time.  

Elizabeth Warren's selfie with my daughter went viral because pinkie promises mean something

Quote

When she met my family, Warren shook my hand and then went to speak to my 6-year-old daughter (“six-and-a-half!” she insists). The senator told my daughter that running for president should be expected of girls, and they made a pinky promise so she would remember. Setting expectations like this is a crucial aspect of mentorship. If Senator Warren becomes President Warren, there are many little girls in this country who will celebrate a mentor’s success. And that will very likely shape their ideas about what is possible in their own lives

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by stevenkesslar

[RA1]

I did not realize Congress was working .....full stop.  I have worked 7 days a week except for Christmas day my entire life.  What is this woman saying?  Nothing that I wish to hear.

Best regards,

RA1

[stevenkesslar]

53 minutes ago, RA1 said:

I have worked 7 days a week except for Christmas day my entire life.  What is this woman saying?  Nothing that I wish to hear.

So I take two things from that.  You're a good guy, and you are not a big fan of Warren.

So could I ask a really big favor?

I've never lent anyone my penis, but I have been known to lend out my pinkie from time time.

Could I borrow your pinkie?  

That way I can actually ask for two pinkie promises from Elizabeth.  (I promise one of them will be to decriminalize prostitution, if she's elected.)  

I know.  I know.  It's very selfish of me. 

But since I have a reputation as a greedy whore, anyway, I figured I might as well use it to my advantage.  

[AdamSmith]

10 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Thanks for posting that, Adam.  That's a wonderful video.

Since I'm being characteristically verbose on another thread, I'll try to be uncharacteristically brief here.  Warren's message of unity and jumping in the trenches together actually fits nicely with the themes I was pushing on the other thread.  I love that she even gives a shout out to how the LGBTQ community changed America.

Part of what is working is she refuses to go negative.  It's implicit rather than explicit in this video.  But she didn't take Colbert's bait and go after Biden.  The media has been going on and on about how there is going to be a showdown between Bernie and Elizabeth.  The last debate they went on and on about how there was going to be a showdown between Elizabeth and Joe.  She just keeps being positive and inspiring, and tells us how she wants to bring people together and lead. 

Castro, on the other hand, tanked after he attacked Biden.  There's a big lesson there.

She is winning the hearts of America.  One selfie and one pinkie at a time.  

Elizabeth Warren's selfie with my daughter went viral because pinkie promises mean something

 

@stevenkesslar, please herefrom disregard my silly bitchiness about your ‘v’ (I know I need not post the whole word  ).

We are on the same side of history.

Let us hope to God that 2020 sets things back toward the right heading.

[stevenkesslar]

Quote

• YouGov and FairVote teamed up to simulate the Democratic primary under a ranked-choice voting system. The system asked voters to rank the candidates by preference (with the ability to rank 10 of 20 candidates or just the five candidates with the highest polling averages). The candidate with the fewest votes was then eliminated and his or her votes redistributed to each voter’s next choice. This process is repeated until one winner remained. In the first-round tally of the five-candidate version of this poll, former Vice President Joe Biden led Sen. Elizabeth Warren 33 percent to 29 percent, but after eliminating and redistributing according to ranked choice, Warren led Biden 53 percent to 47 percent. Unfortunately for the Warren campaign, that’s not how the Democratic primary works.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-americans-want-u-s-forces-to-defend-saudi-arabia/

So it's clear, that is just a "polling bite" I read out of a longer article on 538.

That is super bad news for Working Class Joe.  

For a month or two I've been noticing that the percentage of the primary vote that is for Warren and Sanders combined is higher than the percentage that Biden gets, in almost every poll.  And this "progressive" slice of the Democratic primary pie just keeps slowly growing as Warren and Sanders do their tag team schtick.

As of this week Warren is now tied to or slightly ahead of Biden in Iowa.  It's all pretty much bullshit until people start voting.  But Iowa is now not really that far away.  So this does not look good for Biden, either.

But that ranked choice thing is really bad news for him.  It's the first thing I've seen anywhere that suggests that if you skim off everybody else, including Sanders, that Warren may equal or best Biden on her own.  As others continue to throw in the towel, there's reason to think Warren will benefit more than Biden.

If you pull back the camera and look at the entire chess board, that could be significant for some other reasons, as well.

The #1 best reason for a Biden candidacy all along for me has been this concept:  Democratic Senate majority.  That's speculation.  And it's a subset of the concept that Biden is, in fact, the most electable candidate.  That's always been a big question, and it is becoming a bigger one by the day.  But I think it's objective to say Biden is the most moderate of the top tier.  So it doesn't surprise me that Doug Jones from Alabama, for example, would much rather run on a ticket with Biden at the top.

All year I have thought a Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren ticket could be a good idea.  It is now very clear they draw in unique voters.  Warren might be better with suburban women who gave Trump a try in 2016.  Sanders might be better with working class men who gave Trump a try.  But the problem with both is that their Senate seats would be filled by a moderate Republican Governor if either wins, at least until special Senate elections could be held in Massachusetts and Vermont.  So even if Democrats picked up 4 Senate seats and had a 51 vote majority the day after the 2020 election, a winning Warren/Sanders ticket would take that down to 49.  At least for much of 2021 until there was a special election, presuming that a Democrat won in both races.

For most of 2019, Warren has done marginally worse than Sanders or Biden in these horse race match ups with Trump in the Rust Belt/Midwest "blue wall" states Democrats need to win - Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. And that's what Biden's folks are really hitting hard right now.  Even in Massachusetts, for example, they claim Warren just doesn't do well with the "Joe Six Pack" types. 

That said, even that idea seems to be shifting rapidly.  There's lots of examples of that, but here's one:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

Three months ago, a poll by Firehouse showed Biden a little ahead of Trump, Sanders a little behind Trump, and Warren getting clobbered by Trump in Pennsylvania.  Now the same poll shows Warren and Sanders both ahead of Trump by 2, and Biden ahead by 4 in Pennsylvania.  The same trend seems to be playing out gradually in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Any relative advantage Biden (or Sanders) had over Warren in a horse race poll against Trump seems to be disappearing.

Another important thing that seems to be emerging in the latest polling is Warren does better than Sanders, and pretty much as well as Biden, in some other key states.  Like Arizona, where both Biden and Warren are in a statistical tie with Trump but Bernie is 8 points behind Trump in one recent poll.  In the latest Florida poll, Warren is even with Trump, whereas Biden and Sanders are both one point behind.  That's basically a statistical tie.  But my point is that Warren is doing no worse than Biden, and she may be doing better than Sanders, in terms of being able to beat Trump in what are emerging to be the swing states, like Arizona and Florida.  My hunch is these are states where the suburbs and women are the key, and Warren just seems to be doing better in those areas than Sanders.

While the "blue wall" states may be the minimum required to win back the White House, they have almost nothing to do with the race for the US Senate.  Those key states are Iowa, Maine, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and if I really cross my fingers and hope maybe even Texas or Kentucky.  Those odds do not seem awful.  If you count that as eight possibly winnable seats, Democrats could pick up 4 and have a functioning majority - even if Warren's Senate seat is temporarily filled by a Republican until there is a special election.

So it's all very crystal ball to speculate about the impact of Warren on Senate races in those states a whole year from now.  But my growing sense is that she is connecting with college-educated professionals and/or women more and more by the day.  And like in 2018, they seem to be the swing voters that are most likely to call the shots.

Like I said, the only really good reason I've been able to think of all year to seriously consider Joe Biden is my mind can't escape the idea that he could be the best one to lead the ticket if we want to win the Senate.  But I'm not very confident of that anymore.  

If I had to name the single thing I find most fascinating about Warren right now, it's the way she deflects questions about how - for much of her life - she was a registered Republican.  Like her evasiveness on taxes for Medicare For All, you could argue the silence is practically deafening.  When asked about why she was a Republican, the stock answer seems to be a smile and a shrug and something like, "Geez.  I don't know.  That's just what folk like me from Oklahoma did.  Didn't really think about it much."

And she has gotten away with it, so far.  Which is interesting.  Bernie gets perpetually crucified for being a democratic socialist, even though he has always, always, always voted with the Democrats since he was elected to Congress.  So how exactly is it that a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination gets away with not have to say almost anything about why she was a Republican for much of her life?

My point is that I strongly suspect that she knows exactly what she is doing.  Or, to use the new buzz words, she has a plan.  If she does win the nomination, I suspect next Fall she will start to unpack why she shifted.  And I suspect it will be Reagan in reverse.  Meaning it's not that she left the Republican Party and capitalism.  It's that she's still just a Main Street capitalist, really, and it's the Republican Party and corporate capitalism that left her (and America) behind.

If any of that is true, she may be exactly what we need if the goal is to drag women running for Senate seats in places like Maine, or Texas, or even Kentucky over the finish line.

 

Edited September 23, 2019 by stevenkesslar
typo

[stevenkesslar]

 

[stevenkesslar]

Krystal Ball: Democrats on track to nominate Warren, lose to Trump

Quote

But this is me pulling the fire alarm. Dems have repeatedly told pollsters that their number one priority is to beat Trump and yet here we are, rapidly moving towards nominating exactly the type of candidate who is consistently rejected by voters. If you want to win, turn away from the siren song of the Ivy League and place your trust in the multi-racial working class.

So it's happening.

There's another article I read on The Hill prior to the one above.  I won't post it, but it was all about how everybody in DemocratLand is buzzing because at least one reputable poll in Iowa shows Warren out front in the first state that will actually vote.  The Biden Bubble may be beginning to pop.

I'm posting the article above because it's part of the buzz.  So it's clear, it is written by a progressive (I'm guessing a Sanders supporter).  So it's not an attack from Biden allies coming from the center.  Bernie and Elizabeth so far are honoring their agreement to take the high road together.  But it's fair to say Warren will now have people coming at her from both the left and right, saying she's a disaster waiting to happen.

You can sum up the "progressive" argument by just using the buzz words:  Wine track.  Government bureaucrats with plans.  College grads who knows shit about blue collar workers who lost a factory job.  Cultural snobs.  And (cover your ears, children) Pocahontas!  In fairness, the argument is that Pocahontas is a symbol of inauthenticity.  Warren is a phony.  A Harvard snob pretending to be a working class Mom from Oklahoma.

I think this probably defines the next phase of the Democratic primary.  Warren will either rise to the occasion, or this may be where she stumbles and falls.

I think she will rise to the occasion, and here is why:

To put it in context, that's a clip from a town hall in Fort Wayne, Indiana.  Two of the four people Warren is seated next to were Trump voters in 2016.  In a prior clip, which is interesting but which I won't post, Warren goes through her plans for a two cent wealth tax on mega-millionaires, and how she'll use it to invest in a green economy and green manufacturing jobs.  

What is fascinating to me about this clip is that it deals with the next question:  yeah, you have all these great plans.  But why should we believe a word you say?  And even if we believe you, why should we believe for one minute that any of this shit is actually going to happen?

In some ways, it's actually more interesting to watch this by turning down the volume and just looking at these people's faces, and eyes.  It speaks to hopelessness, disbelief, cynicism, being lied to, maybe just being ready to throw in the towel.  And at one point Warren says to Chris Hayes (at about 9:30), "We can give up. You're right.  We can just totally give up and say, "Hey, let 'em (the fat cats) have it."

The next part of what she says is I think what makes or breaks her:  "Or we can say that this is the moment we fight.  I am in this fight all the way."  The audience exploded in applause.

You know who she reminds me of?  Donald Trump!  Make America Great Again!

One thing I give him credit for is that Trump sold hope.  But is was hope based on the idea that some rich fat cat who knows everything and always wins (sorry, that's a lie) is just gonna take care of it for you.  Trust me.

Call me biased, because I spent decades organizing in communities like this.  But my gut feeling is that people know there's a reason why Trump has not delivered as promised.  And they know in their hearts that Warren is right.  You're never going to get anything unless you fight for it.

I posted that lead article because I think "Krystall Ball", the author, has a shitty crystal ball.  What defines Warren is not that she is a Harvard professor, or a wine sipper.  Or that she is imperfect and she fumbled on the beer video and Pocahontas.  What defines her is that she has spent her whole life getting back up on her feet, and fighting, and winning.  And we know who she fights for.  People who can't pay medical bills.  People losing their home.  People being screwed by banks and rich fat cats.  And now, people being screwed and lied to by Donald J. Trump.

I think this is what is going to make her or break her.  Can she convince America that it is time to jump in the trenches and fight, together, for the country we actually want?

And now the real test begins.

 

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by stevenkesslar
typo

[TotallyOz]

On 9/18/2019 at 11:44 PM, RA1 said:

I did not realize Congress was working .....full stop.  I have worked 7 days a week except for Christmas day my entire life.  What is this woman saying?  Nothing that I wish to hear.

Best regards,

RA1

Except Christmas? Jeeze, lazy man. I have not had a Christmas off for 30 years. (said I have a Mai Thai with a Muay Thai on a Thai beach).

[RA1]

5 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

Except Christmas? Jeeze, lazy man. I have not had a Christmas off for 30 years. (said I have a Mai Thai with a Muay Thai on a Thai beach).

Oh, I have worked on Christmas Day (what with family and all) but just not "at work".  Still, I understand your comment.  Happy Fall.

Best regards,

RA1