Why there are so many empty seats on flights to Rio

[mvan1]

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According to the first article cited below, the American CDC said that the Zika virus is spreading quickly in South America -

There goes more trouble for the Olympics and for Brazil's tourism -

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/02/10/cdc-confirms-link-between-zika-microcephaly-brazilian-babies-who-died/80179898/

and

http://www.cdc.gov/zika/disease-qa.html

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[Guest Erostotle]

I am curious as to how you know that many flights to Rio are not full. How many? What about other cities? Do you have any actual airline figures for this?

You might be right, I just would like more than supposition.

[mvan1]

I am curious as to how you know that many flights to Rio are not full. How many? What about other cities? Do you have any actual airline figures for this?

You might be right, I just would like more than supposition.

I travel to Brazil nearly every month (except for December) and have done so for many years. I have been to Brazil more than 140 times including lots of trips to Rio.

Until the past year or so, flights that I was on had a lot of Brazilian passengers and most flights were nearly full.

Because of Brazil's fairly recent recession, planes that I have been on over the past year of so, were often half full or less. Prior to the current recession, the flights were roughly about half Brazilian versus other nationalities. The current decrease in seat utilization by Brazilians is obviously influenced by Brazil's recession and Brazil's recent high unemployment.

However, a new negative element has entered the travel/visitor equation, the Zika virus.

Although I have no scientific figures to show if the Zika virus will cause less visitors to Brazil, I think it is reasonable to conclude that the Zika virus epidemic will cause many fliers to stay away from areas where the virus is prevalent, such as in Brazil.

Today, the American CDC announced and confirmed that the Zilka virus is in Brazil. Thus, it doesn't take a genius to realize the Zika virus will have a negative impact on the number of future passengers visiting Brazil. How many less visitors remains a guess.

Read the two articles I cited in my opening post. Here is but one warning from the CDC:

"The CDC is warning pregnant women to protect their babies by avoiding travel to South America, Central America and Caribbean countries such as Puerto Rico, where the virus is spreading fast. Women who are already in those countries should take precautions to protect themselves from mosquitoes, which are the main way that the disease is transmitted, Frieden said."

[torogen]

However, Zika is so mild that many people don't even realize they got it. Only 20% of people who pick it up get sick. So it's really mainly a concern to pregnant women, or for pregnant women who might be infected in the US by someone who picked it up on a trip and brought it back. I'm not planning to change my plans, and I can't imagine that it is going to have a *huge* impact on the number of travelers.

[mvan1]

However, Zika is so mild that many people don't even realize they got it. Only 20% of people who pick it up get sick. So it's really mainly a concern to pregnant women, or for pregnant women who might be infected in the US by someone who picked it up on a trip and brought it back. I'm not planning to change my plans, and I can't imagine that it is going to have a *huge* impact on the number of travelers.

Let me correct what you wrote "However, Zika is so mild that many people don't even realize they got it. Only 20% of people who pick it up get sick. So it's really mainly a concern to pregnant women, or for pregnant women who might be infected in the US by someone who picked it up on a trip and brought it back."

It is not only pregnant women who are at risk. It is women, in general, who might become pregnant in the future who are at risk.

The CDC has made announcements to encourage women who plan to have babies in the future to avoid Brazil and areas (countries) that have the virus. As you wrote, the symptoms can be mild. Women can contract the virus and not know they have it, then get pregnant. The baby will either die or be deformed as described below.

Any reasonable woman would be concerned if her chances of having a baby born with a deformity is increased by visiting a country listed by the CDC as a place to avoid if she has future plans to become pregnant. These women, who planned to accompany their spouse/husband to Brazil are the ones encouraged to cancel. Not single men.

According to some travel blogs, airlines have received numerous cancellations of trips to Brazil because some women (who are not pregnant) had planned to accompany their husbands to the Olympics and have canceled the trip at the recommendation of the CDC.

Women who contract the virus even before getting pregnant or during pregnancy have a high probability of having a child born with microcephaly, an abnormal smallness of the head, a congenital condition associated with incomplete brain development.

I suggest you read the articles I cited in my original post, plus articles about the virus, before you conclude that the virus will not be a major threat to the travel industry of Brazil.

Of course, single adult males traveling to Brazil are at minimal risk of contracting the virus.

I also do not plan to cancel my trips to Brazil.

The point I am making it that many women are canceling which affects the travel industry in/to Brazil. At this time, no one knows the total financial impact of the drop in travel because the Olympics have not yet commenced.

If you still doubt that there will not be a huge impact on the number of travelers to Brazil because of the Zilka virus, all I can say is "good for you."

[msclelovr]

I disagree with Torogen. Everyone has to evaluate the risk for himself, of course, but the worsening news is off-putting. I can see many people postponing their travel plans.

Did you see the reports a few days ago of the 3 deaths in Colombia that have been linked to Zika? Also, as I mentioned in an earlier post, a small number of adults who do fall ill get neurological complications (Guillain-Barre) that can prove extremely serious.

For those that are interested, The New York Times has had an extensive number of articles on the virus. Here's the link to a very good summary article. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/opinion/sunday/zika-mosquitoes-and-the-plagues-to-come.html

[torogen]

I had not seen that there was a possible link between Zika and Guillain-Barré syndrome in a small number of cases. That is more worrisome, but for me personally, the worry is only slight. I had already looked at that CDC article about how to protect yourself, and I had already looked into the proper insect repellent. Amazon sells many concentrations of DEET insect repellent (30, 40, 98-100% DEET) in the form of sprays, lotions, and wipes, and I had already planned to take some of those along in order to be prepared. I am not sure how many mosquitoes I will actually encounter in Rio. I was warned before I visited Costa Rica to take 100% DEET and to be prepared for swarms of mosquitoes, but in actuality, I only saw about 3 mosquitoes during the two weeks I was there, and then only when I went into the deepest jungle. So, basically, I'm saying that I will prepare for the worst and hope for the best, but I am not going into it blindly. I'm just not a person who worries about such things.

[SolaceSoul]

Did you see the reports a few days ago of the 3 deaths in Colombia that have been linked to Zika? Also, as I mentioned in an earlier post, a small number of adults who do fall ill get neurological complications (Guillain-Barre) that can prove extremely serious.

Those travelers who already may be immune-compromised in some way, such as HIV, cancer, flu or perhaps on some antibiotics, treatment or treatment that could affect the immune system, might be more at risk of developing Guillain-Barré. I am certainly not a physician, but I would recommend that anyone who is already immunocompromised including those who are asymptomatic to consult with their physician before making a trip to any place where the mosquitoes that transmit Zika virus (which might cause Guillain-Barré syndrome) are prevalent.

[firecat691614502759]

And then on top of all this Zika news, you see many articles talking about the Olympics having worse problems then Zika and water is the bigger problem.

All and all Brazil and especially Rio are getting more bad publicity then they could have ever imagined leading up to the Olympic Games.

Sad situation for Brazilians who had their corrupt government fail them in so many ways .

NBC will of course put the best face on all the problems and they are lucky to have such a beautiful landscape to do their promos from.

It will be interesting to see if they actually show what a disaster the Olympics has been for the people of Rio and the corruption that made it so.

There are a lot of governments that are failing their citizens in the world but certainly Rio and Brazil are high on the list.

[mvan1]

If there is any doubt that the Zika virus will affect tourism to Brazil and to other countries affected by the virus, take a look at this article. The article discusses Delta Airlines' policy with respect to the airline offering refunds to passengers who have already purchased tickets to countries where the Zika virus has been confirmed by the CDC.

The refund policy will have an obvious negative affect on tourism to Brazil and to other affected countries.

UA and AA will be announcing their policy next week.

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/morning_call/2016/01/delta-issues-zika-virus-travel-advisory-customers.html