The disgruntled are after the wrong person

[mvan1]

Yesterday was another day of protests in Brazil.

Even though the president has been thoroughly investigated and found innocent of any corruption or wrong doing, there are still thousands of angry people calling for her impeachment.

While it is true that Brazil has a lot of economic problems, the problems were not caused by the president.

It is a case of needing to blame someone - whoever is in charge - that person must be blamed and driven out of office.

Here is an article from today's Rio Times - it gives more details about the demonstrations:

http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/protesters-take-to-the-streets-in-brazil-against-rousseff/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheRioTimes+%28The+Rio+Times%29

-

[MsGuy]

...the president has been thoroughly investigated and found innocent of any corruption or wrong doing...

-

[ihpguy]

Dilma Rousseff might not have personally profited from Lava Jato and other corruption. But she had to have been blind or deaf, dumb and blind not to know there was something going down. Too many politicos were travelling around the world to their varied 2nd, 3rd and 4th vacation homes not to have noticed anything. She wasthe head of the nation's largest company after all. What has she been doing for the past five years concernin the refinery in Itaboraí? Now the scandal with Angra #3 nuclear installation? Besides eating fur pie of course, that old carpet muncher.

[Guest riosul77]

mvan1,

You are joking, I sincerely hope. Regardless of her roots, long ago, in the fight for democracy;she is the protégé of Lula, ergo puppet. Do you have any idea how that old goat profited from the kickbacks over the years? And, sucking in the uneducated, uninformed millions who kept him in power. Yes the years where good, and many benefited from a rise in living standards. But, this was due to oil and other Brazilian exports, the revenues were pouring in to government coffers. And lots of money was poring out to the government cronies.

Now, with the party over, no more money, those same masses, are bearing the brunt of the run away inflation. I have had a few friends lose their jobs and one friend who is shutting down his business putting a further five people out of work, disgruntled indeed.

BTW, while I am on a rant, a few other posters have been "crowing" about the high us dollar , and the resultant cheap boys. This is getting a little old, and more than a little in bad taste. In my humble opinion.

[mvan1]

mvan1,

You are joking, I sincerely hope. Regardless of her roots, long ago, in the fight for democracy;she is the protégé of Lula, ergo puppet. Do you have any idea how that old goat profited from the kickbacks over the years? And, sucking in the uneducated, uninformed millions who kept him in power. Yes the years where good, and many benefited from a rise in living standards. But, this was due to oil and other Brazilian exports, the revenues were pouring in to government coffers. And lots of money was poring out to the government cronies.

Now, with the party over, no more money, those same masses, are bearing the brunt of the run away inflation. I have had a few friends lose their jobs and one friend who is shutting down his business putting a further five people out of work, disgruntled indeed.

BTW, while I am on a rant, a few other posters have been "crowing" about the high us dollar , and the resultant cheap boys. This is getting a little old, and more than a little in bad taste. In my humble opinion.

No, I am not joking. I did a lot of reading on the subject and concluded that if the Brazilian people could prove that the president is guilty of an act that warrants impeachment, the impeachment would take place - but it hasn’t - and it won’t.

Agencies of Brazil’s federal police and government hired international forensic audit firms to hunt for all assets of the president. All countries that allow foreigners to open bank accounts were included in the examinations. The forensic audit firms found no foreign accounts for the president.

By the way, for many years, “numbered accounts” ceased being issued by foreign banks. This precludes any "secret" accounts for the president.

An examination of the president’s total net worth disclosed that she has a net worth of approximately $500,000.00 American dollars. She is not even a millionaire. Hardly a person who has shared in bribes and kickbacks.

In view of the above reports from both internal Brazilian agencies and external international forensic audit firms, it is obvious that the president did not share in any kickbacks or bribes. Like I said previously, if it could be shown that she was guilty, she would be impeached.

Even the Brazilian government and reputable news agencies agree that the president is not guilty of any act that would result in impeachment.

The citizens are rightfully unhappy with the poor economy.

It is human nature to want to blame someone. However, in the instant case, the people are blaming the wrong person.

I, also, have a few Brazilian friends who are feeling the poor Brazilian economy. It is depressing to see these good people go without jobs and money to support their families. Were it not for the money these guys make in the saunas, they would have no money at all.

With respect to your comment about posters “crowing” about the high dollar and resultant cheap boys, I must remind you that Canada, at the present time, has a loss of about 30% of its recent value which makes everything (including escorts) cost less for Americans.

Economies have gains and economies have loses.

Not too many years ago, the U.S. economy was in the slumps and the "burst of the housing bubble" forced America into a recession. Europeans and citizens of certain other countries came to America and enjoyed “cheap” goods and entertainment.

Currently, the Euro has depreciated against the U.S. dollar.

Ups and downs are just part of life.

As the idiom goes, “Make hay while the sun shines.”

[firecat691614502759]

I am so tired of people who read and then consider themselves experts on the politics of foreign countries. Nobody from outside the country can truly understand what goes on politically in a foreign land.

Unless you are fluent in Portuguese and read papers and magazines in Brazil and watch TV news in portuguese, you really have no idea of the dynamics in a country that is not your own.

And even then if you do not live there , you can't really understand.

Quite tough to make sense of one's own country!

[ferrar]

While it is true that Brazil has a lot of economic problems, the problems were not caused by the president.

@mvan1: Like others here I enjoy your posts on this forum.

However, the above statement does not mesh with reality and could not be further from the truth.

In fact, given Dilma's unprecedented micromanaging of the economy, in such a disastrous way, during her first term, it is clear that those very policies are responsible for the (predictable) economic problems that resulted in her second term.

Let me try to explain with facts.

The Dirty Details:

- Dilma boasted during her first term that she was establishing a new Macroeconomic Matrix for the country, effectively dismantling the decades-long model of three economic pillars instituted by FHC and yes continued by Lula during his two terms.

- The three pillars, otherwise known as the Tripod, were effective monetary policy control of inflation via a central target with a band of tolerance on either side; fiscal policy control via targeted primary surpluses; and a floating exchange rate.

- Dilma singlehandedly dismantled those pillars of economic success, and the predictable result was runaway inflation - with no growth to show for it. Why not growth? No tackling of any structural reforms whatsoever.

- In terms of monetary policy, while the Central Bank has never been independent, it had been largely autonomous - and Dilma destroyed that credibility built up in FHC's and Lula's two term in her very first term. She neutered Tombini, who was the protege of Meirelles, one of the most effective BC governors the country has ever had. In determining that she wanted Brazil's real interest rates to be at civilized levels, a laudable goal, at any cost, she simply ordered the country's benchmark nominal interest rate, the SELIC, to be lowered to its lowest level ever - 7.25%, regardless of inflation levels. With nominal rates at that level, and inflation above 5%, she achieved her goal of real interest rates of 2%. Real interest rates were about to improve further, into negative territory, with inflation spiralling out of control. That folly was recognized way too late, and the interest rate hiking cycle lasted well over two years - with nominal rates now at 14.25%, and real interest rates the highest in a decade at around 5%. Policy Grade: FAIL

- In terms of fiscal policy, her administration spent heavily, with absolutely no structural reforms, and provided unprecedented levels of government subsidized loans to pet companies in pet industries (Odebrecht, in the contruction sector, comes instantly to mind - a notable player in Petrobras scandal). For the first time in decades, the country had no primary surplus - critical to credit rating agencies and investors - but ran primary deficits. Worse, through pedaladas, or accounting shenanigans clearly illegal as they run contrary to the country's Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF), she tried to make the situation look better than it was. The TCU responsible for ruling on this matter, was set to issue a negative ruling which yes, would constitute grounds for a possible impeachment, but the political pressure on this theoretically technical body is enormous, and the decision will probably end in 'pizza.' It is the fiscal setbacks which led Moody's to downgrade Brazil to the cusp of junk last week, and set its debt ratios much higher than typical investment grade countries. And again, such fiscal recklessness led inevitably to runaway inflation. Policy Grade: FAIL

- Exchange rate policy has also been erratic - her first administration attempted to manipulate on the devaluation side, then when disaster hit, she changed in midstream to strengthen the besieged real, and now is content on largely devalued real in the 3.5 range. These interventions have defied economic logic, and further hit credibility. The net result has been further inflation. Policy Grade: FAIL

- Last but not least, the scale of her intervention in such sectors as electricity distribution has been as ill-thought-out as it was unprecedented since the days of military rule: controls that have discouraged further investment, increased costs, and huge tariff hikes on the end user, the consumer. Worse, during her re-election campaign, she blocked the resultant tariff hikes until after her electoral win, and so the electricty bills have increased close to 50% this year alone. Which by the way, is the largest contributor to the double-digit inflation rate. Policy Grade: FAIL

I could go on, but enough is enough.

Inescapable conclusion: Dilma's own (failed) policies were absolutely responsible for the predictable and ruinous economic consequences they wrought.

The only upside here is that through her pyrrhic win, it is Dilma and Dilma alone who must deal with the political and economic fallout of ill-begotten decisionmaking. (Aside of course from the poor povao, who have to suffer needlessly through all this.)

It just would not have been just for Aecio or Marina to have stuck with cleaning up Dilma's mess. The only other upside, as noted through the protests, is that the povao have woken up to this reality and desperately want her and her policies eliminated from their economic and political landscape.

[mvan1]

@mvan1: Like others here I much enjoy your thoughtful posts on this forum.

However, the above statement does not mesh with reality and could not be further from the truth.

In fact, given Dilma's unprecedented micromanaging of the economy, in such a disastrous way, during her first term, it is clear that those very policies are responsible for the (predictable) economic problems that resulted.

Let me try to explain.

The Dirty Details:

- Dilma boasted during her first term that she was establishing a new Macroeconomic Matrix for the country, effectively dismantling the decades-long model of three economic pillars instituted by FHC and yes continued by Lula during his two terms.

- The three pillars, otherwise known as the Tripod, were effective monetary policy control of inflation via a central target with a band of tolerance on either side; fiscal policy control via targeted primary surpluses; and a floating exchange rate.

- Dilma singlehandedly dismantled those pillars of economic success, and the predictable result was runaway inflation - with no growth to show for it. Why not growth? No tackling of any structural reforms whatsoever.

- In terms of monetary policy, while the Central Bank has never been independent, it had been largely autonomous - and Dilma destroyed that credibility built up in FHC's and Lula's two term in her very first term. She neutered Tombini, who was the protege of Meirelles, one of the most effective BC governors the country has ever had. In determining that she wanted Brazil's real interest rates to be at civilized levels, a laudable goal, at any cost, she simply ordered the country's benchmark nominal interest rate, the SELIC, to be lowered to its lowest level ever - 7.25%, regardless of inflation levels. With nominal rates at that level, and inflation above 5%, she achieved her goal of real interest rates of 2%. Real interest rates were about to improve further, into negative territory, with inflation spiralling out of control. That folly was recognized way too late, and the interest rate hiking cycle lasted well over two years - with nominal rates now at 14.25%, and real interest rates the highest in a decade at around 5%. Policy Grade: FAIL

- In terms of fiscal policy, her administration spent heavily, with absolutely no structural reforms, and provided unprecedented levels of government subsidized loans to pet companies in pet industries (Odebrecht, in the contruction sector, comes instantly to mind - a notable player in Petrobras scandal. For the first time in decades, the country had no primary surplus - critical to credit rating agencies and investors - but ran primary deficits. Worse, through pedaladas, or accounting shenanigans clearly illegal as they run contrary to the country's Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF), she tried to make the situation look better than it was. The TCU responsible for ruling on this matter, was set to issue a negative ruling which yes, would constitute grounds for a possible impeachment, but the political pressure on this theoretically technical body is enormous, and the decision will probably end in 'pizza.' It is the fiscal setbacks which led Moody's to downgrade Brazil to the cusp of junk last week, and set its debt ratios much higher than typical investment grade countries. And again, such fiscal recklessness led inevitably to runaway inflation. Policy Grade: FAIL

- Exchange rate policy has also been erratic - her first administration attempted to manipulate on the devaluation side, then when disaster hit, she changed in midstream to strengthen the besieged real, and now is content on largely devalued real in the 3.5% range. These interventions have defied economic logic, and further hit credibility. The net result has been further inflation. Policy Grade: FAIL

- Last but not least, the scale of her intervention in such sectors as electricity distribution has been as ill-thought-out as it was unprecedented since the days of military rule: controls that have discouraged further investment, increased costs, and huge tariff hikes on the end user, the consumer. Worse, during her re-election campaign, she blocked the resultant tariff hikes until after her electoral win, and so the electricty bills have increased close to 50% this year alone. Which by the way, is the largest contributor to the double-digit inflation rate. Policy Grade: FAIL

I could go on, but enough is enough.

Inescapable conclusion: Dilma's own (failed) policies were absolutely responsible for the predictable and ruinous economic consequences they wrought.

The only upside here is that through her pyrrhic win, it is Dilma and Dilma alone who must deal with the political and economic fallout of ill-begotten decisionmaking. (Aside of course from the poor povao, who have to suffer needlessly through all this.)

It just would not have been just for Aecio or Marina to have stuck with cleaning up Dilma's mess. The only other upside, as noted through the protests, is that the povao have woken up to this reality and desperately want her and her policies eliminated from the economic and political landscape.

Hence, the very understanding calls for her impeachment.

Thank you for your detailed explanations and opinion.

While you presented a good reason for the present economic problems, I must use the old idiom that "reasonable people disagree" when it comes to impeaching the president.

Let us assume that she were at fault for the economic downturn and is impeached. What can be done to "un-ring" the horrible economy bell that is ringing loudly throughout Brazil?

Like I said earlier, economies have good periods and they have bad periods. Eventually, just as other countries have economic troubles, Brazil's economy will improve. The question is - when will it improve?

-

[ferrar]

As one of Brazil's former presidents put it today, while still Brazil's legal president, Dilma has become Brazil's illegitimate president, as a result of her own actions and the consequences of those actions.

Legitimacy, at least in democracies, is ultimately decided by its citizenry, and Brazil's citizenry let the world know its verdict on Sunday.

Illegimate presidencies seldom end well.

Lack of governability is a symptom that has already manifested itself.

Dilma, as minutely outlined above, is absolutely responsible for the economic and political mess she created, and for the good of Brazil's democracy, should consider what is best for the country above her personal interests - or the populace will ultimately decide for her.

[RA1]

"crowing about the high US dollar". I quite agree, so long as there is no crowing when it goes the other way, which it will.

I well remember when I was traveling to the UK on a very frequent basis, the Pound Sterling was actually on par with the USD for a day or two. Also within a 2-3 year period of this, the Pound was at 2.25 USD. So, been there, done that, got the T-shirt.

Best regards,

RA1

[ihpguy]

The shit hit the proverbial fan yesterday. Pressentially Cunha of the House of Deputies has been officially charged by the Brasilian Attorney General and has.been requested to turn over to the government rhe sum of 280 million Reais. Payoffs from Samsung for some ships built for Petrobras. Ex-President and current t Senator Fernando Colot has also been charged. There are many more politicians to be charged. The hits just keep on coming

[ihpguy]

On a related matter, a.criminal lawyer I am friendly with told me that Lula had requested from a sittin federal judge a precautionary writ of habeas corpus for when he does get charged on this far-ranging federal investigation. How Dilma has continued to stay out of the gunsights? I haven't a clue.

[firecat691614502759]

I'm sure the Olympic Comm, is very sorry with their selection!

[ihpguy]

Least of which are the sailing , rowing and canoeing federations I suppose FINA for the ocean water marathon swims and triathlon. WHAT A JOKE!

Marina da Glória us a stagnant sewer and is where all of the Olympic boats arê launched. Many sports like basketball, tennis, golf, gave other famous competitions besides world championships. BuT for others the Olympics are the shit. Well thus tear they are going to be swimming, sailing and rowin through it.

[boiworship]

Least of which are the sailing , rowing and canoeing federations I suppose FINA for the ocean water marathon swims and triathlon. WHAT A JOKE!

Marina da Glória us a stagnant sewer and is where all of the Olympic boats arê launched. Many sports like basketball, tennis, golf, gave other famous competitions besides world championships. BuT for others the Olympics are the shit. Well thus tear they are going to be swimming, sailing and rowin through it.

They have less than a year to get their shit in order, literally.

[boiworship]

Do you think the military will step in if the situation gets out of control, or are those days gone?