Foreign Concerns over Thailand's Crisis Political Situation

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The following appears in the BANGKOK POST:

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Foreign Concerns

 

As signs of violence continue to emerge between the People's Alliance for Democracy and the administration of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, there is one group hoping for a miracle of peaceful reconciliation - the diplomatic corps.

 

Analysis By Achara Ashayagachat

 

The ambassadors, consuls and embassy officers stationed in Bangkok believe Thailand cannot afford to hurt its core, income-generating sectors that are intricately linked to the outside world, such as the tourism industry and foreign direct investment (FDI).

 

Like the Thai public, two foreign representatives are tensely watching if this political battle will turn the clock of Thailand's democracy backwards, in which case they would have to accept the Thai people's choice with pity.

 

A Nordic ambassador said it was still too early to draw conclusions regarding the medium- and long-term impact on the FDI. For now, foreign investors are following Thailand's political situation very closely and will in due course make up their minds whether Thailand is still a good country for them to invest in.

 

Since the ouster of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, there has been no major dangerous signs until the past several days, when clashes between police and demonstrators took place. According to the ambassador, the latest disturbances were the two bomb blasts in the protest vicinity that are starting to shatter the fragile confidence of the tourism sector.

 

Inevitably, Thailand depends largely on the revenue from this sector. If there are more incidents of violence and more bombs go off on either side, both the tourists and foreign investors will unfortunately be scared away, the diplomat said.

 

The anti-government PAD's siege of the Government House has gone on for about a week now. And there is no sign they would consider retreating. At the same time, the pro-government United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) has given its marching orders and is moving ever closer to the encamped PAD demonstrators - a move that is causing people to worry about violent clashes.

 

Meanwhile, the special joint session of parliament, aimed at resolving the ongoing political turmoil, provided meager, if any, hope of achieving a solution.

 

The increasingly grim outlook has caused another wave of concern among the diplomatic corps, who have only restored recognition of Thailand since the Dec 23 election when the country managed to have a democratically elected government once again, after more than a year under military coup.

 

Quite a few diplomats are puzzled by the very fact that there are strong voices among the Thai people, led by the PAD, calling for another military intervention and a shift from the one-man-one-vote, to a mostly-appointed representative system.

 

The division in Thai society is so deep, the Nordic ambassador observed. It was supposed to become less but has instead become more pronounced. Differing views are not being taken into account and it seems there is not much room for compromise in this stand-off.

 

The Sept 19, 2006 coup failed to solve the rift within Thai society, let alone the political problems.

 

Italian ambassador Ignazio di Pace agreed that the country's political developments are turning to a dangerous corner, as the two opposing groups might confront each other and accidents can occur any time.

 

"The longer the confrontation is allowed to go on with no agreement, the more sensitive the situation will become. This can have a great implication for Thailand and it is a great sadness for me, after three years here, to see the on-going situation," Mr di Pace said.

 

The Italian ambassador yesterday went to see with his own eyes how the PAD demonstrators were sticking to their battleground.

 

He said Thailand was now being featured on the BBC and CNN's main news coverage and the issue is in the international fora. Certainly, it's not a good image that is being presented. For example, tourists are trapped at Phuket international airport while the center of national administration, Government House, has been seized.

 

"This is very unique," he said.

 

The Nordic ambassador added that in other countries it would be unimaginable for demonstrators to seize Government House and for the governing administration to allow such an incident to take place, either.

 

Still, he hoped there would be some peaceful way to iron out the differences. The basic principle to start with is to respect the court process and the rule of law.

 

If the former or present premier is accused of being corrupt, the public should work to ensure that they are punished by the courts.

 

"It should be like that, shouldn't it?" the ambassador asked.

 

But before talking about the legalities, he suggested that a commission be established to defuse the situation and bring the country back from the brink and from potentially violent clashes.

 

However, the idea of a mediator or mediating committee will only work if both sides accept the person or persons chosen for the task, he said.

 

"Unless the PAD gives up or the premier agrees to step down, both sides will remain locked in an impasse. But if one agrees to slip away from that point and allow parliament to choose a new leader from the ruling or coalition parties, will that be acceptable for the Thais?" he asked.

 

The Italian ambassador remained hopeful that a peaceful way to reconcile still existed, a way to solve the problem that was consistent with the rule of law.

 

"It is certainly the business of the Thai people, but as a friend of Thailand, I want to ensure that democracy remains the best system despite some shortcomings," said Mr di Pace.

 

Clearly, he said, there is an attempt to go back from the electoral system to a semi-appointment system, but he doubted if Thailand could afford to reverse the system it has been implementing for several decades.

 

Like the Nordic diplomat, the Italian ambassador also confirmed that should parliament appoint a new government, or even if the Thais eventually choose to try a different system other than electoral, "I'm still Thailand's friend."

 

"But I just doubt if that would work for Thailand," he said.

 

Sunai Phasuk, representative of Human Rights Watch, conceded that members of the international community may be scratching their heads when it comes to the current political situation in Thailand.

 

Thailand has had experience with ideological conflicts before, Mr Sunai said.

 

"During the Oct 1973 or May 1992 incidents, we learned that once one camp starts to dehumanize the other, the conflict would end in blood. We need crisis envoys or a commission to stop that," he said.

 

At this point, university rectors are discussing if it is possible to offer some choices that are acceptable to both conflicting camps and to ask them to come to the negotiating table. There they can debate and review what went wrong with the current electoral system and what can be done. It remains to be seen whether such a proposal will find an audience amid the ever louder protest calls.