Members MsGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Members Posted February 28, 2014 Follow real time news of events in the Crimea here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10666893/Ukraine-crisis-live-Russia-admits-its-troops-are-moving-in-Crimea.html Sample posts: "Russian foreign ministry admits to entering Crimea from its Black Sea Fleet base as the Ukraine's interior minister accuses country of 'armed invasion' " 17.06 Russia has just said it will give Russian passports to members of Ukraine's Berkut - the disbanded riot police. 16.42 Putin has called for a rapid return to normality in Ukraine and warned against any further escalation of unrest, in telephone calls with key EU leaders, the Kremlin said. Putin emphasised "the extreme importance of not allowing a further escalation of violence and the necessity of a rapid normalisation of the situation," the Kremlin said after Putin had separate phone calls with Cameron, Merkel and European Union president Herman van Rompuy. 16.40 Journalists in Crimea have spotted a convoy of nine Russian armored personnel carriers and a truck on a road between the port city of Sevastopol and the regional capital, Sinferopol. 10.10 Our foreign correspondent Harriet Alexander says worried politicians inside Ukraine’s parliament have pleaded with Britain and the US to come to their rescue. The two Western powers signed a memorandum with Ukraine in 1994, which Kiev’s parliament now wants enforcing. The Budapest Memorandum, signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine – promises to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine, in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. Article One reads: “The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine ... to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” ---- One should be aware that the Crimea is 80/90% ethnic Russian, people who speak Russian as their first language. Until the late 1950's the Crimea was politically a province of Russia. Khrushchev transfer the province to Ukraine for administrative reasons. Over the weekend an ethnic Russian nationalist mob took over the municipal mayor's office and installed a new mayor. ----- Latest: 17.35 All aircraft movements at Sevastopol's Belbek airfield are stopped after unidentified individuals seized the runway, a according to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency lookin 1 Quote
Members lookin Posted February 28, 2014 Members Posted February 28, 2014 All this recent news got me interested in visiting Crimea, home of the Yalta Dacha (for the alta caca). Timing couldn't be worse, of course. Apparently, it's long been considered the crown jewel of the Russian (ex-) Empire. Can't see any of this this ending well. Russia's not just going to walk (or float) away. MsGuy 1 Quote
Members RA1 Posted February 28, 2014 Members Posted February 28, 2014 Putin seems intent on being a reincarnation of past Russian or USSR despots and, in this instance, is just trying to stir up something to see where it leads. Even though I have thought of Crimea as being part of Russia "forever" it was ceded for political purposes. I have no thought that Putin actually gives two hoots about any of that. Push the envelope every chance you get seems to be his motto. Best regards, RA1 Quote
Members MsGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Author Members Posted February 28, 2014 Previously I've read descriptions of Ukraine as Russia w/o Putin, i.e. oligarchs busy looting the country with no check on their activities. Recall that many of the opposition speakers to the crowds in Kiev were booed and shouted down. Some say they are just another set of kleptocrats trying to ride the demonstrations back into power and grab their share of the loot before it's too late. Another take on what's going on there now and mistakes the folks in Kiev have been making: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0228/Is-it-too-late-for-Kiev-to-woo-Russian-speaking-Ukraine ==== Ukraine appeals to U.N. Security Council: 19.45 The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door emergency session in 15 minutes on the escalating crisis in Ukraine on Friday at the request of the new Kiev government, which warned that the situation in Crimea threatened Ukraine's territorial integrity, Reuters has reported. Armed men took control of two airports in Ukraine's autonomous Crimea region earlier on today in what the country's leadership described as an invasion and occupation by Russian forces. Russia denied involvement in the airport seizures. CNN reports as I type that masked gunmen who appear to be Russian military personnel have surrounded the state TV station in the provincial capitol of Crimea. Also reports are that telecommunications and internet connections between the peninsular of Crimea and the rest of the Ukraine have been disabled. ==== Back to gossip about memos re: Clinton's sexual doings back in the 90's and speculation of present rivalry between Hilary and Biden vs. their cooperation in the Obama administration. Can the latest news of the Bieb be far behind? I thought CNN was supposed to be the serious news channel. Quote
Members MsGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Author Members Posted February 28, 2014 Here you can find the BBC live feed on the Ukraine. 20:57: The head of police in Sevastopol, Gen Vitaliy Malikov, has resigned according to the ATR television channel. 21:13: The assets of up to 20 Ukrainians, including those of President Yanukovich and his son, have been frozen by Switzerland, Austria and Liechtenstein, Reuters reports. The former president on Friday said that talk of foreign bank accounts was "empty chatter". 20:34: Meanwhile, armed men are operating at checkpoints on the main roads connecting Crimea to mainland Ukraine. In this photo, masked men who say that they are members of Ukraine's disbanded Berkut riot police force man a barricade near the northern Crimean city of Armyansk. ==== PS I found lookin's link ("can't see...ending well") useful and insightful. Well worth reading. ==== Just my first guess, but Putin appears to be setting up for a slow roll annexation of the Crimea and possibly more. Whether he pulls the trigger on that probably depends on how much he can get through intimidation & negotiation. I doubt he himself knows (at least I hope not) but he has sure as hell made it crystal clear that ain't nothing going to happen without his consent. Remember when Georgia was making noises about joining the European Union and maybe eventually NATO? Naw, that didn't happen either, did it? lookin 1 Quote
Members MsGuy Posted March 1, 2014 Author Members Posted March 1, 2014 Telegraph: 22.56 Ukraine's defence ministry said it had information that unknown "radical forces" were planning to try to disarm its military units in Crimea early on Saturday morning and warned against such action. "In the case of such unknown actions, the Ukrainian armed forces will act in accordance with the laws of Ukraine and the regulations of the Ukrainian armed forces," the ministry said in a statement on its website. Quote
Guest Paragon Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 Here you can find the BBC live feed on the Ukraine. 20:57: The head of police in Sevastopol, Gen Vitaliy Malikov, has resigned according to the ATR television channel. General Malikov has been granted asylum here in the US, and to avoid confusion, will be living in the California town of Sebastapol, albeit without any police powers. But, the Ukrainian problem festers. Russia has vested interests n the country, and thus a right to be concerned about its security. Naturally, they may try to protect their interests by going too far, seizing on the opportunity to expand those interests. The US will not use force to stop them. Obama is making empty threats and Putin knows it. Hell, I know it, why wouldn't Putin? BTW, there is gay life in Ukraine, as shown by this picture of the head of a gay Forum being playful with friends. Well, friends of Putin: Quote
Guest Paragon Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 Responding, of sorts, by Putin to Obama, Putin just asked the Russian Senate to allow troops to be sent into the Ukraine. I wonder what the Senate will say! Quote
Guest Paragon Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 A good analysis of the situation is provided here: http://www.towleroad.com/2014/03/what-putin-really-wants-with-crimea.html#more Well-worth reading. Quote
Guest zipperzone Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 I know this subject will get more readers in this forum - but doesn't it really belong in the Politics forum? Quote
Members lookin Posted March 1, 2014 Members Posted March 1, 2014 http://www.towleroad.com/2014/03/what-putin-really-wants-with-crimea.html#more From the article: That’s why the best hope of rolling back Russia’s intervention in Crimea now rests on firmness about the consequences. If Western countries are to uphold their values and interests, they must show they’ve learned lessons from the Russia-Georgia war by acting together to threaten sanctions against Moscow and aid to Ukraine. In my opinion, the challenge will be providing aid to the half of the country that wants nothing to do with us. One of the comments to the article: Catherine the Great conquered the Crimea 250 ish years ago ... Russia won't give it up. Ukraine should split itself like the old Czechoslovakia did ... and let the pro Russian people of the Crimea be Russian, and the Lithuanian/Polish people can live in the Western "Ukraine". Russia won't give up the Crimea. Makes sense to me. Fighting to keep the country together, whether successful or not, will cost a lot of lives. Although it may take a long time, we've had better luck letting a Western-supported region exist side-by-side with a Russian-supported region and seeing who's happier. If we start now, I expect this could be done diplomatically, without much loss of life. It's said that most Ukranians want to keep the country together. If that's true, why not a referendum, oblast-by-oblast, to see who wants to be on each side. Russia will almost certainly get Crimea, which it surely wants. Unfortunately, it's probably more likely that both sides will goad Ukraine into a civil war before the split eventually happens. Quote
Members MsGuy Posted March 1, 2014 Author Members Posted March 1, 2014 What with the kleptocracy running the Kremlin. I'm not sure Putin can afford to have a Ukraine next door that's better governed than Russia proper. Might make too many folks restless. At any rate, I don't believe for a minute this is about the Crimea. Putin intends to have a Russia friendly state with a government in the Ukraine prepared to give Moscow due deference. I doubt formal annexation of the rest of Ukraine is an immediate goal. And don't think the Baltic countries with their large Russian minorities won't notice when Germany, the US and Western Europe confine their reaction to ineffectual fussing. What's that NATO guarantee worth now? Quote
Members lookin Posted March 1, 2014 Members Posted March 1, 2014 What's that NATO guarantee worth now? Mutually assured destruction? Quote
Guest EXPAT Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 I suspect that Putin wants the old leader in power because he's in Putin's pocket. Russia has a number of gas/oil lines going through Ukraine and he wants to have "control" of the leader of that country. I think it is as simple as that. Quote
Guest Paragon Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 Obama's empty threats discussed: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2014/03/vladimir_putin_s_war_on_ukraine_president_obama_had_no_options_for_saving.html Quote
Members lookin Posted March 2, 2014 Members Posted March 2, 2014 Let's hope the threats stay empty. While Obama can't say, "Isn't that nice!", there's really not much else he can do in the short term. Although less focused on military responses than Slate, The New York Times also concludes there's not much to be done right at the moment, even economically. Putin may well prove his own worst enemy, but I think the story will unfold in months and years rather than days and weeks. In the meantime, the less chest-thumping, the better. Quote
Members MsGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Author Members Posted March 2, 2014 1) Neither the will nor the capacity exists for the US (or NATO) to support Ukraine with hard power. 2) German reserves of natural gas are not all that substantial at any time and have been run down a bit already to meet winter demand. I guess they could turn those mothballed nuclear plants back on for electricity, but w/o Russian gas, in a few months a lot of people in Germany would be sitting in cold apartments and eating cold food out of cans. Their chemical industry would be crippled. The US threw a purple fit back when they Germans first cut their gas deals with the USSR for exactly that reason. 3) What are the chances the Europeans will support serious sanctions if that threatens their gas supply, not to mention tens of billions of existing investments in Russia? The threats are empty because objectively Russia can influence events in Ukraine much more easily and more effectively and at far less cost than we can. And because the Ukraine is far more important to them than to us. I can remember feeling sick to my stomach when Bush, jr. and Biden would natter on in public about offering Ukraine candidate status for the European Union and eventually NATO membership. Crazy talk and arrogant as hell. In the past Putin has been fairly cautious and realistic in his objectives outside Russia. I just hope that will prove to be the case in Ukraine. Please remember: the folks in Kiev who took to the streets essentially mounted a coup against a government they saw turning toward Russia. Not all Ukranians oppose a pro-Russian policy. To them that bunch in Kiev we're backing has no legitimacy. I doubt a few thousand Russian troops based in Sevastopol could seize control of the Crimea w/o substantial support from the local population. lookin and boiworship 2 Quote
Members RA1 Posted March 2, 2014 Members Posted March 2, 2014 Could not much the same be said for sanctioning any oil or gas producing country? Wait, silly me, they are all run by cheating pols, aren't they? Best regards, RA1 Quote
Members boiworship Posted March 2, 2014 Members Posted March 2, 2014 Putin seems intent on being a reincarnation of past Russian or USSR despots and, in this instance, is just trying to stir up something to see where it leads. Even though I have thought of Crimea as being part of Russia "forever" it was ceded for political purposes. I have no thought that Putin actually gives two hoots about any of that. Push the envelope every chance you get seems to be his motto. Best regards, RA1 I read that Khrushchev ceded Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR while drunk. Quote
Members boiworship Posted March 2, 2014 Members Posted March 2, 2014 One of the main groups behind the protesters on Maidan (independence Square). Along with Svoboda, which has seats in Parliament, they constitute an anti-Russian grouping. Svoboda even advocates rearming Ukrainian forces with nukes. Scary place which Obama will likely talk about but not intervene. http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Inu_-0dcSU MsGuy and lookin 2 Quote
Members RA1 Posted March 3, 2014 Members Posted March 3, 2014 We should send in Neville Chamberlain to settle this once and for all. Best regards, RA1 MsGuy and ihpguy 2 Quote
Members MsGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Author Members Posted March 3, 2014 I suspect a lot of folks in Latvia might not fully appreciate your humor, RA1. ihpguy 1 Quote
Members MsGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Author Members Posted March 3, 2014 One of the main groups behind the protesters on Maidan (independence Square). Along with Svoboda, which has seats in Parliament, they constitute an anti-Russian grouping. In all fairness to Ukraine, most eastern European states have their own 19th Century nationalist types yearning for the day when their local version of Greater Assholia deservedly ruled the neighborhood. Unfortunately Russia is no exception. ==== And for the furringers posting here, no snickering in the peanut gallery. America is different; we truly do deserve to rule the world. USA! USA! USA! ihpguy 1 Quote
Guest hitoallusa Posted March 3, 2014 Posted March 3, 2014 I wonder Putin is aggressive like this in bed too.. I don't like aggressive lovers.. Anyways I don't want to lose all of my shoes and be deposed by a revolt so I'm glad that Putin isn't gay and my spouse. Although he exudes sexiness that attracts me.. Why do I fall for these problematics guys... I need a normal marriage life... Sigh Quote
