Question for the Great & Wonderful Oz

[MsGuy]

OK, I get it that the Democrats and the 'good people' are doing their damnest to oust Yingluck and take over via a street mob putsch. And I think I get it that her attempt to bring back her brother by pushing through a general amnesty was a bridge too far.

So:

What I'm wondering is whether the 'good people' are just taking advantage of Yingluck's over reach on the amnesty bill or are they desperate to crush the Thaksinite party before the respected King dies and is replaced by his feckless son?

It just occurred to me that maybe the amnesty bill itself was a desperate effort by Thaksin to get back in Thailand to control events following the death of the King.

If answering this post might subject you to being flogged through the streets on the way to Bankok's nastiest prison, by all means feel free to maintain a discreet silence &/or post more pictures of your cute BF.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-08/yingluck-offers-referendum-as-thai-protesters-plan-final-rally.html

[Guest Paragon]

Is anyone else allowed to hazard an answer, knowing full well that few foreigners really have the insight necessary?

[MsGuy]

Paragon, if you aren't planning to visit Thailand, by all means please feel welcome to speak your mind. Being ill informed never stopped any of us from staking out a position before. Sure as hell never stopped me!

But if you're thinking about a trip to Bangkok, you might want to watch your mouth when you speak of the King. Thailand's lese majeste laws are draconian by Western standards.

Please note that Oz, who is hardly a shrinking violet (& who is our go to guy on all things Thai), has maintained a discreet silence.

Hell, he hasn't even posted any more pictures of his Thai BF.

[Guest Paragon]

Well, I take no risk with the Thai government since I don't plan to visit, but I have visited in the past, first in the 80's. The real risk I take is expressing an opinion that might not hold up to challenge, but that wouldn't be so bad, since I would learn something too.

When I first went there, I was amazed at how friendly and calm the Thai people were. Thailand was known as the Land of Smiles, and it was easy to get a smile for just about anything you did. Discrepancy in wealth was obvious, but there was no apparent distress over this. Thai Buddhism carried a belief that your past live(s) dictated your status in your current life. And, if you didn't have it so good, Thai Buddhism also told its believers that "all life is suffering." So they shouldn't be surprised if life hurt. The life is suffering belief was usually followed by an exhortation to have fun- sanook in Thai.

So that led to an easy-going, fun-loving society. There were the usual haves and have-nots, but that was karma, right? The Thais were taught that their King was god-like, if not, in fact, a god. He did not have, in modern Thai society, actual political power, but he sure had real influence. Yet the last time this was noticeably seen was in 1992, when the Prime Minister and the opposition leader were forced to walk on their knees as they approached the King at the Palace. The NY Times reported:

"With the Prime Minister and the leader of the political opposition sitting at his feet, the King of Thailand obtained an agreement Wednesday to end clashes that have left scores of people dead on the streets of Bangkok.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej met in a gilded reception room at the Chitralada Palace with the contested Prime Minister, Suchinda Kraprayoon, and the leader of the democracy movement, Chamlong Srimuang, who had been released from custody for the meeting, and urged them to "prevent fighting in our own house." A Pledge to Free Detainees

Mr. Suchinda and Mr. Chamlong announced afterward that the thousands of jailed protesters would be freed and that the Government would seek quick passage of an amendment to the Constitution requiring that the Prime Minister be an elected official, which Mr. Suchinda is not.

It was the demand by protesters for Mr. Suchinda to step down that touched off the violence, bringing out the deep resentment here over decades of military rule. As part of the agreement, Mr. Chamlong called on his supporters to suspend their protests."

This is the first memory I have of any large scale protests in Thailand. The sleeping class was waking up, and the poor got a taste of money when Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party allegedly bought his way to become Prime Minister in 2001. The poor folks voted his way in exchange for rather paltry sums of money. Thaksin was Prime Minister for six years until the military deposed him in a coup. He was later exiled.

Yet now his sister is Prime Minister, or caretaker Prime Minister since protests have returned to Thailand and elections have been set for February 2d. Yet the opposition Democrats plan to boycott them since she is likely to have the votes to win again. It seems vote buying works.

It's hard to categorize the Thai politics as simply rich versus poor. In massive protests in 2008, protesters donned yellow or red shirts to show their support for factions fighting for power. It seems that ultimately the rich, or the "haves," are going to have to learn to share. But if money is the only issue, then billionaire Thaksin, exiled or not, controls the strings and will buy poor voters off so he can enhance his own personal power.

The King, having lived for several years in a hospital due to illness, is now in a palace near the resort of Hua Hin, and if he is involved in current debates, it is well behind the scenes. His son and heir allegedly did not inherit the King's charisma, so the future of Thailand may be quite unsettled.

[Guest Paragon]

Any predictions on how peaceful today will be in Thailand as her citizens exercise their right to vote?

[Guest Paragon]

No one interested?

[MsGuy]

Paragon, it's not that I'm not interested, it's just that I don't know to root for. It's all too confusing for the likes of me.

I will say that my gut feeling is that Thaksin has shattered the Thai body politic the same way Peron shattered Argentina's. And with a similar result: the country will be unstable and near ungovernable for decades. Here it is sixty years since his death and Peronism still poisons the politics & economy of that sad country.

I only hope Thailand doesn't have to go through the same thing but somehow I doubt whether all the King's men will be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Once you break down a broad social consensus on how the world should work, it's no simple job to patch it back up.

[Guest Paragon]

That's a pretty good look at the situation, MsGuy. Thaksin could have had it all if he had not seen the country as a conglomerate, where he could sell off major subsidiaries, such as their phone company- to Singapore, no less. Instead, he wasn't the leader he could have been, and chaos resulted.

I find it interesting that the protesters; slogan is "Shut down Bangkok, restart Thailand." Bangkok, after all, is the home base of the protest movement. Why shut down your home base?

This stupid protest leader, one Suthep Thoufsuban, in 2010 was anti-protest, has a shady past, and in 2010 ordered soldiers to crackdown on the protest, leading to current charges of murder, for which he has avoided arrest. It's my thinking that he saw this current protest as a chance for him to rise politically, but fat chance given his record. Other politicians were happy to let him test the water, but if his protest had succeeded, I am sure they would have shunted him aside.

As it is, the elections brought no conclusive results as many polls never opened. Thais have become less law abiding as they learn how corrupt their government is, and the old Thailand where each individual accepted his lot in life as karma from previous lives is almost defunct. They have had a taste of what the rich have known all along, and that is money, so I doubt they will return to the old ways.

A strong government could rein in the lawlessness, especially given that the protests have turned into huge shopping markets, with few listening to the speakers. They buy Thai flags and other souvenirs, eat and socialize. With the North divided against the south, the situation is ripe for intervention, either by a strong military leader, the King (fat chance), or a savvy politician who can make both sides think he has their interests at heart. He would then, of course, plunder the treasury like everyone else, but if the people supported him, it would be business as usual.

[Guest Paragon]

More intrigue in Thailand today. Is the King backing the protests? Who is? These questions and more as the police start to break up the protest camps:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/world/asia/thai-police-clear-areas-of-protesters-as-their-numbers-ebb.html?src=rechp

[MsGuy]

Near as I can parse it out, the yellow shirts have one legitimate (in Western eyes) gripe.

Thailand is a major exporter of rice. The rice price support has been set so far above the world market price for rice that it's bankrupting the government. (The yellows claim not to be against a 'properly administered' price support but that's just hooey.)

The rest is just a squabble between Thaksin, a billionaire, and his bunch and a competing traditional elite over who gets to enrich themselves. A very third world type fuss.

The Thaksin back story reminds me of the way Ceasar and his mega-rich ally Crassus rallied the proles to gain power over the then governing Senatorial class.

[TotallyOz]

The yellow shirts want a country led by a committee as opposed to an elected Parliament. They don't think the people can be trusted. In other words, they are against democracy.

[Guest Paragon]

Goodness, Oz! You didn't reply until all the protests ended! Is democracy where poor rice farmers are bought off for a few bucks to vote for a billionaire, who then tries to sell the countries assets to foreign governments, enriching himself further in the process?? Or is it the rational end of an electoral campaign where all sides have been fully and fairly heard from? My shirt is yellow. But I'm afraid the yellow shirts will be red with blood should not some reason come to Thialand.

[TotallyOz]

I am a red shirt and I believe in democracy even if elected officials are corrupt. I also think the red shirt leaders have wisely sided on the side of the poor and in my view, that is what is needed. The yellow shirts have disrupted the country enough.

[Guest Paragon]

Yes, but. Two years ago, or was it 4?, the red shirts were more in the wrong. If the country remains divided, colors won't matter. Loyalty to the country should prevail, and it's a shame that the King cannot inspire that like he did in the old days. It's not his fault, mind you. He just became old and infirm. What the yellow shirts have to realize is that they cannot claim all the money or influence. They have to share. But they do represent the most educated group, if only because heritage meant admittance to the universities. That will change over time if the yellow shirts come to realize that it is in their interests to have educated people surrounding thier leaders. The Taksins cannot rule since they proven corrupt and are willing to sell the country if it will enrich them further. So then, who? I suggest Totally Oz.

[TotallyOz]

I suggest Totally Oz.

I accept. I'll gladly rule the land and have a house of 100 boys at my beck and call. Well, if I have that many, I won't be ruling the country as well as with only 50. So, as my first sacrifice, I'll rule with only 50 cute Thai boys in my abode.

I agree with much of what you said. But, the way the yellow shirts stay in power is to keep the poor from being educated. It is a calculated plan. If they realize how much they are getting fucked over, they would riot. Much like the USA. The stupid people in this country don't realize they are getting fucked day in and day out by their rulers. Why? Stupidity as well.

[Guest Paragon]

Oz, I think what you say is true universally. The rich keep the goodies to themselves, parceling them out only as needed to pacify the poor. It's a shame, and various politicians have campaigned to change things, but once in power they realize that they like having the goodies, so why share?

But, it's a great sacrifice you are willing to make in giving up 50 boys so you can devote more time to ruling. Can I have the 50 you kick out??

[lookin]

Can I have the 50 you kick out??

If you're lucky.

[Guest Paragon]

Not everyone can be lucky, but we can hope.