Iranian nuclear stand down

[RA1]

Any thoughts that the so called first steps to "solving" the Iran nuclear threat are fraught with at least as much danger as we had before? Sure, I would like to believe that "something" is better than nothing but there are so many "bad" possibilities that I am not sure in this case that we have indeed achieved "something".

Also, I cannot deny the thought that this is one more example of BO trying to deflect the abysmal performance of Obamacare with "another triumph". He seems to have a by now long history of same.

However, I fully agree that any pol is likely to do whatever he can to "get the heat off". That does not make it right.

Best regards,

RA1

[Bucknaway1614502762]

I feel sorry for tomorrows generation.

I have no idea what the ultimate goal of our elected officials is?

[lookin]

Also, I cannot deny the thought that this is one more example of BO trying to deflect the abysmal performance of Obamacare with "another triumph". He seems to have a by now long history of same.

However, I fully agree that any pol is likely to do whatever he can to "get the heat off". That does not make it right.

Cheer up. Maybe the website won't be any better in December, and he'll decide to bomb them instead.

[MsGuy]

Cheer up. Maybe the website won't be any better in December, and he'll decide to bomb them instead.

hahahahahahahaha...OMFG

[Bucknaway1614502762]

One thing for sure, we are going to get a speech. I am willing to put money on it!

[MsGuy]

Seems to me Iran agreed to

1) Stop enriching above 5% (reactor fuel level)

2) destroy existing stock of 20% enriched uranium (last step before bomb grade)

3) cease work on the plutonium breeder reactor (currently not far from going online)

4) Allow close & intrusive inspection of all of above

5) talk about reaching a permanent arrangement over the next 6 months.

Seems to me the 5+1 (or 3+3 or Obama + whoever) agreed to

1) allow Iran access to some, not all, of their own money now frozen in Western accounts

2) allow the banks in Iran to use the international banking system to transfer funds

3) allow outfits like Lloyds of London to insure oil tankers carrying Iranian oil to buyers already allowed to purchase same under current sanctions, thereby substantially reducing their shipping costs

4) ease prohibitions on sale of spare parts to the oil industry and other industrial plants

5) (implicitly) refrain from bombing the shit out of Iran pending further talks. All bets are off if Iran cheats or drags feet.

Did I miss something important?

[RA1]

It is just that I am tired of our own pols lying, never mind those in foreign countries that "everyone" knows are lying.

I am not for bombing Iran without further notice. Israel can do that.

I am all for trying to negotiate this but I am only hoping there is a very short rope on the particulars.

Regardless, I will believe it when it verifiably happens and not before.

Best regards,

RA1

[MsGuy]

It is just that I am tired of our own pols lying

Pols lie, it's what they do. All the time. It's just that we don't always recognise it when they're telling a lie we want to hear.

I am not for bombing Iran without further notice. Israel can do that.

Point of fact, Israel can't do that, not effectively. That's why Netanyahu has been working so hard to corner Obama and make him do the nasty for them.

I am all for trying to negotiate this but I am only hoping there is a very short rope on the particulars.

I see no particular reason to go out of our way to humiliate an Iranian president who appears willing to defy the crazies in Iran on behalf of a settlement. With that proviso, I agree with you.

I will believe it when it verifiably happens and not before.

And I won't believe it even then. But then you've always been something of a pollyanna.

[RA1]

So, you are just along for the ride?

Best regards,

RA1

[MsGuy]

At this point in my life, I'm just glad not to be riding in a hearse.

I do reserve the right to kvetch vociferously from the peanut gallery.

[AdamSmith]

The inspection regimes proposed seem intrusive enough to give this some teeth.

One can't help but wonder whether at least one strand of Iranian thinking may have concluded that getting some of its prosperity back will not only help satisfy its populace, but also make it easier to get bombs, should that be needful, through the more cost-effective route of the nuclear black market.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/12/10/georgia-nuke-investigations/1757963/

[RA1]

Kibitzing is different from kvetching. However, I too am happy you are not riding in a hearse. I expect you to do both. Kibitz and kvetch, not ride in a hearse.

Obviously there is a difference of approach or opinion about what the US-Iranian accord might mean and might result. I always applaud any effort to achieve peace even though I am VERY skeptical.

Best regards,

RA1

[MsGuy]

I always applaud any effort to achieve peace even though I am VERY skeptical.

Maybe the whole thing is just an elaborate Iranian head fake.

Or maybe it will be sabotaged by Iranian hard liners.

Or Israel &/or the Saudi's will sabotage it.

Or Obama will fuck it up.

Or the Russians will get pissed off about something else entirely and fuck it up just to spite everybody else.

Or...

Or...(pick your favorite baddie) will sabotage it/fuck it up.

Who knows?

What We Do Know:

Last spring Obama sent several private letters to the Supreme PoohBah stressing he was sincere about resolving the nuclear issue w/o linking settlement to other outstanding issues and backing off the US's regime change posture. (Remember all the conservative hullabahoo when those leaked out?

Last March said PooBah inserted a single sentence in a single speech (between two whole paragraphs roasting the Great Satan) indicating he could support negotiations.

All last summer secret preliminary talks were held in the Gulf States between the PooBah's personal representatives and the president's guys. Meantime the PooBah engineered the election of Rouhani, a career diplomat, to replace Mr. Crazy Eyes as president.

The Iranians agreed to provisions in the interim agreement that would genuinely handicap a last minute secret push to complete a bomb.

MOST IMPORTANTLY:

This agreement is being presented to the Iranian people as a good thing for the country, a triumph of Iranian diplomacy, and has been greeted by almost universal joy & approval by the public. Only the most ideological right wing whackadoodles are bitching (at least in public).

Now this is a fairly fragile regime lacking in support from large sectors of Iranian society. They have now put themselves in a position that makes it very problematic domestically for them to pull the old switch-a-roo at the negotiations. They have put themselves under enormous domestic pressure to pull off a successful permanent treaty.

All in all, I'd say there's a fair chance we'll see a treaty signed next summer that everybody but the Israeli & the Iranian right wing will be content with. Assuming the PooBah lives long enough to give the treaty his blessing. Always a bit problematic in this region.

[RA1]

Now who is playing at being Pollyanna?

Best regards,

RA1

[MsGuy]

Now who is playing at being Pollyanna?

Play back my own words at me?

ooooo, I'm so gonna make you pay for that!

[TampaYankee]

MsGuy, try as I have I've been unable to put any light between your statements and my views on this topic. I know that this damages your reputation for being a thoughtful, clear-minded pundit and for that I apologize. Hopefully you will be able to live down this unfortunate association.

[RA1]

Two Libs at play. Not lesbians, not libertarians but liberals.

Best regards,

RA1