GOP In Grave Danger Of Losing House In 2014, PPP Polls Show

[TotallyOz]

Wouldn't it be marvelous?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/06/gop-house-2014-polls_n_4050686.html

[Guest EXPAT]

It would be nice. But the American public have about a 3 minute attention span. When this resolves by December which it will, it will be long forgotten by the time the 2014 elections come around. . . unfortunately.

[lookin]

For me, the real story isn't so much the Republicans as it is the Koch Brothers and their ilk. And, if I were a leader in the Democratic Party, I'd be singing it from the rafters.

Find me a piece of mean-spirited, undemocratic legislation anywhere in the U. S., and I'll find you a trail to the Heritage Foundation and les Fréres Koch.

The Tea Party whackjobs are their pawns, the ones who actually block democracy in Congress, and I'm not saying they're not willing pawns. But the strings are being pulled by the Koch suckers.

This article in yesterday's New York Times shows how they're doing it for repeal of the Affordable Healthcare Act, and yet most Americans haven't a clue.

Why the DNC isn't on the air 24/7 with this info is beyond me.

[Lucky]

My question is why wasn't Obama on top of the Obamacare roll-out, making sure that no mistakes were made and that Obamacare looked like a winner. Instead we got flawed sign up and an ultimate closure to fix things. Given that repealing Obamacare is supposedly what the shutdown is all about, you'd think they would put their best foot forward in introducing it. But no, they fucked it up instead. The news is all about how hard it was to sign up instead of how many people were finally getting medical care.

[Guest EXPAT]

Ironically a lot of people understand technology rollout gliches and that hasn't hurt the rollout as much as you would think. I guess you can thank all of the previous technology rollouts that have been glichey because of too many people doing it at the same time.

But I also agree that Obama is acting way to professorial in this process and he should be out selling and yelling and screaming. Those are not his strengths and unfortunately it shows now. Hillary would never let that happen without her strong voice being present that's for sure.

[AdamSmith]

Hillary would never let that happen without her strong voice being present that's for sure.

Nor would Bill, who knew and carried out the Explainer-in-Chief aspect of the executive's role better than anyone since FDR.

[Lucky]

gem147, what do you think? I think we have to go with the president we have.

[TampaYankee]

I'm with EXPAT. Don't get too excited or depressed about what voters will do in 2014. It is a long time and remember many many people get their 'news' from Fox. If you watch their programming it is clear that they do not report on news from the same planet that I live on. They are a powerful and effective right wing progaganda organ. They will continue to spew their disinformation along with conservative talk radio.

I do believe people who have been hurt by the shutdown will remember and take it out on the GOP in the swing districts. However, most people in the country haven't really noticed any direct impact on them up to now. That may change especially if we go into default.

I also believe many independents will view the GOP actions as extreme and help with the swing districts. However, there are not too many of those. However, none of this will really matter if the Dem moderates and progressives stay home glued to the sitcoms as they do every off year election. Yeah, do not count your chickens before they are hatched.

Regarding Obam Care, as with any new complex software system or newly built house there will be glitches or as we like to refer to them in the software industry 'unintended features' . Clearly the adminstration miscalculated the depth of initial interest in viewing the new programs.

In hindsight it would have been smart to up the number of servers by a factor of ten and make any software accommodations necessary to manage that size server farm. Also, again in hindsight, I believe it would have been wise to make the roll out a two step process.

Make the first three weeks strictly informational about the plans. Create all the necessary documention to explain the details of the plans short of actually filing out the application including available providers, levels of coverage, rates. Provide that as a PDF file that people can download from the various state sites and the main .gov site. Paper copy could be requested by e-mail, snail mail or phone. A doc download doesnt take long so user turnover is much faster. Phone banks would be manned to answer questions about the program (which they already have).

After three weeks the online sites would provide the same information online (in addition to the PDF) AND an open enrollment window to begin registering people. It might be wise to set up a registration order to keep everyone from trying to register the same day, maybe based on first letter of last name of registrant or the first three digits of the social security number.

That this could happen is understandable. All of the big box stores plan and plan for the opening on Black Friday and every year it is mayhem despite the plans. As with war, the plans go out the window after the first volley is fired.

Software houses do their best to release viable versions of new software releases with lots of money and manpower for development and testing. However, with any complicated software system it is virtually impossible to create a bug-free new release. There is no realistic way to replicate the loads and various possible cominbations of factors that can be entered by a user base of millions.

The real flaw in this rollout was underestimating the load the systems would come under. While that is unfortunate it also bodes well that there really is strong interest in the program.

[lookin]

I wonder if at least some of the high early demand is from folks who figure they better get signed up quick before the Tea Party takes it away. If the Democratic spinmeisters were as crafty as the Republican spinmeisters they'd at least be floating the possibility, though I haven't heard anyone say it yet. I don't really want the Democrats to be craftier than the Republicans, but I wouldn't mind them being a little better at calling out bullshit when they see it.

For example, the reason the government has been shut down for six days is because the Speaker of the House refuses to bring a spending bill to the floor and let the members vote on it. But that's the job of the Speaker and the Democrats won't call him out for not doing it. I think Pelosi could be much more vocal here.

Of course, as they say on the other site, I'm probably just being an ultracrepidarian.

[Lucky]

"Of course, as they say on the other site, I'm probably just being an ultracrepidarian"

No doubt. But it's better to be an ultracrepidarian than a regular crepidarian, don't you think?

[AdamSmith]

As with Bugs Bunny's epithet "What an ultramaroon!"

[Lucky]

As to ultracrepidarian, lookin says that "they" say it at the other site, but, in fact, only one person has used the word, and that was just two days ago. So, we are getting ahead of ourselves if we use the word "they" prematurely, Don't you think?

[lookin]

I don't really want the Democrats to be craftier than the Republicans, but I wouldn't mind them being a little better at calling out bullshit when they see it.

For example, the reason the government has been shut down for six days is because the Speaker of the House refuses to bring a spending bill to the floor and let the members vote on it. But that's the job of the Speaker and the Democrats won't call him out for not doing it. I think Pelosi could be much more vocal here.

At last!

Obama challenges Boehner to allow a clean budget vote onto House floor

"If Republicans and Speaker Boehner are saying there are not enough votes, then they should prove it," said the president. "Let the bill go to the floor and let's see what happens. Just vote. Let every member of Congress vote their conscience and they can determine whether or not they want to shut the government down."

[Guest EXPAT]

Now if they do it, will they have the guts to vote for a clean CR ? Or will the Koch Brothers get to them before the vote?

[TampaYankee]

Now if they do it, will they have the guts to vote for a clean CR ? Or will the Koch Brothers get to them before the vote?

The reason these things go down to the wire, and these days over it, is that Congress people do not like to go on record because it pisses someone off. Mostly they do not like to piss off people with money or microphones or printing presses, in that order. And now they do not want to piss of the smallish group of highly motivated Tea pary GOP base primary voters. That and the new phenomenon of 40 or so Tea Party congressmen who really want to see the government crash and burn as well as big institutions of all types.

The shut down and debt ceiling are such high profile topics touching so many people, that the non-fanatical members realize that voting to please the tea party money, microphones and base will be smeared all over the TV screen and that vote will be noticed by and piss off many many independent and moderate voters. Thus, damned if they do, damned if they don't.

They keep their heads down until they smell the smoke and hear the crackle of flames. When they do move, they hope it is as part of a large herd where most individuals do not stand out.

I do believe that there are many GOP house members ready to vote for a clean CR but they want to be led to it and not bolt the leadership. They want to be portrayed as loyal party members carrying the water for leadership and not rebels undermining the leadership. If only the Speaker would lead them.

I've come to believe that, based on his long history as a grounded sane Republican who respects basic Government and a capitalistic economy, Boehner has concluded that they only way to purge the power of this extreme minority from his caucus and save the GOP as a national party is a baptism by fire. Take this group running the party for a crash and burn, hoping it doesn't, in the end, take the country with them. Else, the present scene will be the future of the Party and American politics for the foreseeable future. That is the only way I can resolve the person he has been over the last twenty years with his actions today.

[Lucky]

There is a sinister cabal behind the scenes in the US government, and they run things. The Patriot Act, which took away so many of our liberties, was their baby. The increased snooping by the NSA was also theirs. Now we can expect a semi-major terrorist attack that will scare the bejesus out of the country, and these very guys will move right in to protect us by taking over the government as we know it. All of our rights will be temporarily suspended, and 88% of Americans will support them, as they fear some raghead in another country might leave his mule long enough to rape their daughter. It's all in the works, and I could probably get killed for revealing this. But, it will be worth it if I save boytoy.com.

[Lucky]

My question is why wasn't Obama on top of the Obamacare roll-out, making sure that no mistakes were made and that Obamacare looked like a winner. Instead we got flawed sign up and an ultimate closure to fix things. Given that repealing Obamacare is supposedly what the shutdown is all about, you'd think they would put their best foot forward in introducing it. But no, they fucked it up instead. The news is all about how hard it was to sign up instead of how many people were finally getting medical care.

The NY Times today takes an in-depth look at the problems presented by the roll-out of Obamacare. Here's a hint:

“These are not glitches,” said an insurance executive who has participated in many conference calls on the federal exchange. Like many people interviewed for this article, the executive spoke on the condition of anonymity, saying he did not wish to alienate the federal officials with whom he works. “The extent of the problems is pretty enormous. At the end of our calls, people say, ‘It’s awful, just awful.' ”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/13/us/politics/from-the-start-signs-of-trouble-at-health-portal.html?hp

[lookin]

The federal website seemed pretty screwy when I tried it a week ago. Apparently, one of the decisions they made early on was to require folks to register before they could get any data on what plans were available and what they would cost, including subsidies. The feds said that they wanted people to have their actual costs, and that could happen only with prior registration. And it was the registration, with all the passwords and secret questions, that made the system grind to a halt.

However, I think I need to call bullshit on their basic premise. A couple of months ago, I was able to browse through a version of the California exchange website and (1) look at the basic plans that were available, (2) enter my age and the hypothetical ages of those in my household, and (3) enter my income. I was then given the monthly cost for the the plan I wanted, as well as the net discounted price. All without having to register.

I tried various ages for myself, family sizes and ages, income levels, and plans, just to see what the various costs would be. I learned later that this is the "shopping" mode that the feds decided they didn't want to offer. One of the experienced consultants they hired early in the process told them that it would be vital to offer a "shopping" mode, or they would run into all sorts of problems.

Which they have.

I am sympathetic to those who make mistakes, even big ones. But it's hard to be sympathetic to those who hire experts to help them avoid big mistakes, and then decide to ignore the experts and make the mistakes.

It's not clear, to me anyway, that they can fix these basic design problems in time for a mid-December enrollment of tens of millions of people. I wonder if Obama wouldn't be smart to 'delay' the individual mandate, as the Republicans are asking, in return for some concession from them. If he ends up delaying it anyway, for stupid website design decisions, he'll have nothing to show for it but embarrassment.

[RA1]

Delaying the individual mandate would involve negotiating, something BO seems to be unwilling to do. However, it is ok to change Obamacare for the Congress and unions as well as delay it for big business. Apparently the little guys are the guinea pigs (again).

Best regards,

RA1