Gaybutton Posted February 19, 2008 Posted February 19, 2008 The US dollar to baht exchange rate opened at 32.33 today. The exchange rate has held at approximately the same level for about a week now. The following appears in the BANGKOK POST: _____ Lee Kuan Yew: US Recession Won't Hurt Asia Singapore (dpa) - Buoyed by bustling growth in China and India, Asia will not be "unduly disadvantaged" if a recession hits the United States, said Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew Sunday night. "I believe this may be the first time where the US economy catches a flu and we are not going to catch influenza - I hope," the city-state's founding prime minister said at a Singapore Airshow leadership dialogue. The Chinese and Indian economies are unlikely to dip below 8, 9, or 10 per cent growth, Lee said. While 40 per cent of intra-Asian trade is bound for the United States, even if the US cuts its imports by half, Asia would not be too badly hit. Focusing on the aviation industry, Lee said he was confident Asia will continue to soar. With new airports being built and more people taking to the skies, Lee forecast "enormous growth in Asia in the next 10, 20 years, more in Asia than in any other part of the world." He was more sceptical on liberalisation going forward. Countries that are not doing so well will want their flag carriers to grow stronger first before they open up, he said. Citing some progress, he noted that by December, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) will lift all restrictions on flights between capital cities. ASEAN includes Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and Burma. The six-day Singapore Airshow featuring the giants of the manufacturing industry starts on Tuesday. Quote
Guest tdperhs Posted February 19, 2008 Posted February 19, 2008 It seems to me that Southeast Asian economies might not be hurt by an American recession only if two conditions are met: 1. That the American recession doesn't impact the Euro and Pacific Rim economies enough to spread there as well; and 2. That, in a boon to U.S. expats living in Southeast Asia, retail industries force their governments to lower the currency value to meet the reduction in spendable capital that the U.S. consumer will have. Another impact that this recession can count on developing is consumers with a new spending ethic. They have grown up in a spend happy economy and have cultivated the attitude that the money and the jobs will always be there. Outsourcing and negative balance of trade are just terms they have to learn for the semester final. Common sense economics is one of the first casualties of a wartime economy. We learned that at the end of WWII and Vietnam when recessions followed quickly. So, like their parents and grandparents, when the emerging generation is confronted with the reality of the shrinking or unachivable dollar and they experience the fiscal cold shower of higher unemployment and prices that will dampen their abilities to throw their yet unearned dollars at unnecessary gadgets and clothes that they will use briefly then throw away, they will retreat behind a wall of common sense and restrict their consumption to more practical commodities, at least for a while. Of course, this applies only to consumers. The big global companies could not care less and will continue abusing laissez faire because we let them. However, consumer products being more voluminous in the economy than the materials produced by the Military Industrial Complex (except in America), SEA manufaturers of those products should not be strongly impacted. However, let us not forget the still ever-present loose cannon - China, the communist nation that is teaching the world the true art of capitalism. Quote
