Guest EXPAT Posted November 4, 2012 Posted November 4, 2012 This is the final NBC / Wall Street Journal poll before the election. . . Quote
Members TampaYankee Posted November 4, 2012 Members Posted November 4, 2012 It's completely irrelevant. Quote
Members MsGuy Posted November 4, 2012 Members Posted November 4, 2012 It's completely irrelevant. Because: 1: There's a world of devilment buried in tweeking the definition of "likely voter." 2. 1% is so deep within the margin of error as to make the result near useless as a predictor of victory. 3. Individual polls seem to be inherently less accurate than the average of a bunch of polls (although whole new worlds for devilment open up here too, lol). 4. The only thing that really counts is the vote in individual states and polls for that are likely to be wildly inaccurate. ---- Seriously, forget all the problems involved in getting a representative sample. Just working up a good algorithm to adjust the raw data into a "likely voter" format involves stuff like making a best guess judgement on the effectiveness of each candidate's ground game turn out machinery, what kinds of voter they are really reaching (and exactly how well) and what kinds they will be missing (and how badly). On even numbered days I feel great about this election; on odd numbered days I feel sick at my stomach at the thought of two more Scalia's in their 40's being placed on the Supreme Court. Somebody said that they plan to go to the movies Tuesday evening just to avoid the gut wrenching anxiety of a close election night helplessly watching the tv. I'm giving that idea serious thought. Quote
Guest hitoallusa Posted November 6, 2012 Posted November 6, 2012 MsGuy I will dance naked in my living if Romney wins. I would do it in public but then i will be insitutionalized. Obama recovered from his first debate and he has a lead in the electoral vote so don't worry too much... Because: 1: There's a world of devilment buried in tweeking the definition of "likely voter." 2. 1% is so deep within the margin of error as to make the result near useless as a predictor of victory. 3. Individual polls seem to be inherently less accurate than the average of a bunch of polls (although whole new worlds for devilment open up here too, lol). 4. The only thing that really counts is the vote in individual states and polls for that are likely to be wildly inaccurate. ---- Seriously, forget all the problems involved in getting a representative sample. Just working up a good algorithm to adjust the raw data into a "likely voter" format involves stuff like making a best guess judgement on the effectiveness of each candidate's ground game turn out machinery, what kinds of voter they are really reaching (and exactly how well) and what kinds they will be missing (and how badly). On even numbered days I feel great about this election; on odd numbered days I feel sick at my stomach at the thought of two more Scalia's in their 40's being placed on the Supreme Court. Somebody said that they plan to go to the movies Tuesday evening just to avoid the gut wrenching anxiety of a close election night helplessly watching the tv. I'm giving that idea serious thought. Quote
