Obama Wins By Landslide

[TampaYankee]

That is what the newspaper headlnes will read on the morning of November 7th. That is barring an unforseen catastrophe or external event imposing itself in the intervening days before the election. This cake is baked!

Mitt Romney cannot win. Stick a fork in him, he's done. There is nothing he can do to change his fortunes. People know him and do not like him -- even the Republicans. Maybe, most of all, the Rebublicans. The people do not identify with him or his values. The 47% tape cooked his goose for once and for all.

Everyone believes that we have a national election on November 6th to elect a President and Vice President. The media -- all of the media -- perpertuates this falsehood, probably because they seek to portray everything as a horse race or high school Senior Class Election.

The truth is that we are a Federated Repubic consisting of fifty separate states mandated that each shall hold a presidential election every four years on the first Tuesday of November. Each state shall select Electors based on the outcome of each individual state election and send those electors to Washington to cast their state votes for President. Each state is alotted an elector for each congressional seat that state possesses.

On this day Nate Greenberg of FiveThirtyEight.com predicts the Electoral College vote to be Obama 320 / Romney 218. That is a landslide no matter how you slice it. That ratio has held fixed more or less for a few weeks now. It is not likely to change barring outside influences.

If all of this unfolds the GOP no doubt will deny that this is a landslide election. They believe in States-RIghts oriented viewpoints only when it suits them.

I have felt the election was uncertain yet leaning for Obama since the conventions. Today, I woke up with no feelings of uncertainty. The cues I take for that determination do not come from the Obama camp. They come from the Romney camp flailing at every turn, grasping at straws and throwing obscure minutia against the walls to see if anything might stick. And from many others in the GOP, candidates and operatives, that are getting daylight between themselves and Romney. They don't want their race or reputation going down the drain with Romney.

I'm confident that if the election were held to day Obama would win convincingly. I do not think Romney can affect the outcome. Neither does the GOP, behind closed doors. That leaves only unforseen external influences that could affect the outcome.

That is how I see it today.

[Guest EXPAT]

I've even read that big donors are fleeing Romney and putting their money toward House and Senate races to try to maintain an advantage in the house and to re-take the Senate which I think is unlikely now as well.

[ihpguy]

Just follow the eight tipping states. And for it to be definite for BO, look to Missou and Tenn.

[Guest hitoallusa]

Although Romney will not win, I want to acknowledge his effort to make the world a better place. Someone has to run for presidency from the republican side and he stepped up and did his best. So I hope he can finish the race and learn new things from this great experience. It's a win win situation for him.

[TampaYankee]

If the GOP doesn't take the Senate (and I doubt they will) then they will have a soul searching next two years to determine the future of their party.

The right wingers will triple down come hell or high water. They are true believers, as in fanatics, and honestly believe that the country wants to roll back Health Care, Medicare, Social Security, women's rights, and purge science from the classrooms and government policy making.

The GOP establishment knows that isn't going to sell. They relearned what most of them already knew -- that people want their Medicare and Social Security left alone. Women want their rights and prerogatives left alone. The GOP has learned first hand that lying about 'killer modifications' dressing them up in sheeps clothing doesn't get past the smell test.

The GOP 'establishment' will have to regain control of the party by whatever means they can or face extinction. They are bitter that the Tea Party wackos have cost them control of the Senate in 2010 and 2012, not to mention the Presidency in 2012. If the GOP wants to be a real contender then they have to swap out the far right wingers for moderates that can give the party appeal to the middle, seeking moderate candidates and funding them to the hilt. They will have the money. It will be interesting to see if money and strategy can take the Party back in the 2014 primaries.

There is one other option. They can continue obstructionism until they loose all effectiveness as political instrument or run the country into the ditch literally and then preside over what remains at that time. That may satisfy their ideology but likely not their pocket books. The First Principle of Big Money is: Preserve Thyself.

[JKane]

I agree with the sentiments in this thread, but still feel uneasy. We've backed some despicable people into a corner and we know they'll stop at nothing to gain--but especially to KEEP power.

Although Romney will not win, I want to acknowledge his effort to make the world a better place. Someone has to run for presidency from the republican side and he stepped up and did his best. So I hope he can finish the race and learn new things from this great experience. It's a win win situation for him.

No, he has not, not in the least. A brave, moral, or caring man would have stood up to the forces that are destroying his party with small-minded bigotry, zealotry and misogyny, even thinking it would cost him the election (and we now know it couldn't have made it any worse...). Instead he pandered his ass off and even his own fucking campaign said his positions on things are as reliable as an etch-a-sketch drawing; the only vision he's ever clearly and consistently expressed is of an America that gives even more to the wealthy--like himself.

---

IF there is no Karl Rovian master stroke and progressives win a clear mandate I hope to FSM that Obama uses it this time instead of pissing it away. Getting corporations under control and campaign finance straitened out are the life or death of our country as a whole.

[Guest EXPAT]

I also don't believe that Romney is trying to make America a better place. You can tell in his flip flopping all over the place on his positions. If he really wanted to make things better he would have definable values and ideals and stick with them and he hasn't done any of that. He just appears as someone pandering to whatever audience he is in front of and changing positions based on polls. That's not someone who wants to make things better. It's someone who wants power at any cost.

[Guest hitoallusa]

We don't know whether it will work or not but based on his philosophy, knowledge, education experience and faith, he thinks that he has capability to make the US a better place.

He gets vetted by public against another candidate and it turns out he is not so popular, his plans might be inadequate. Him being unpopular and his plan being possibly inadequate don't mean that he doesn't love his country and he is not trying to make the world a better place. It's just that a little more people prefer the other candidate and his plan. Losers in history are important too because they are needed to have winners too...

[Guest EXPAT]

We'll have to agree to disagree. I simply do not think he really has America as a whole's best interest in mind.

[lookin]

As TY and others have said, and with the caveats mentioned, it does seem likely we'll have an Obama Presidency and the continuation of a Democratic Senate. A couple of weeks ago, Obama was asked on 60 Minutes what would be different in a second term with the same Congressional lineup we have today. He responded that the Republicans would no longer have their number one goal of seeing him defeated for a second term and his hope was that, without that priority, they would turn their efforts to something more productive. But he didn't seem to say it with much conviction, and I couldn't blame him.

I'd also love to see the momentum build for a Democratic House and hope that more campaign money will find its way into those races. But, even then, in the absence of an unlikely Democratic supermajority in both Houses, there's nothing to guarantee that Republican obstructionism won't continue for the foreseeable future.

I do find myself wondering why Obama himself seems to be doing nearly all of the heavy lifting in terms of calling out the Republicans on their destructive behavior and I wish the Democratic members of Congress would take on a much larger responsibility for that necessary action. I'm stumped as to why they seem so reticent to do so, and rather ineffective when they try.

So the only thing I can think of, in order to get more accomplished in Obama's second term, is for him to take the discussion directly to the American people. In my opinion, it's silly to think that four years of bad economic data and a terrorist attack a decade ago should undo a set of values that the country has spent a couple centuries crafting and two world wars defending. I think the majority of clear thinking folks understand this now, and there's no reason that the rest of us should fail to understand this eventually. It just takes a few leaders who are capable of articulating the facts clearly.

Obama has exceptional skills as a communicator, and positioning the fundamental strengths of long-held American values against the temporarily mean-spirited and selfish values of a minority-of-a-minority party should be child's play for him. I hope he'll take it on.

[MsGuy]

1) It ain't over 'till it's over.

&

2) "27 million Americans can't be wrong."

&

3) "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

====

PS ... Plutocrats, by definition, aren't broke.

[TampaYankee]

Put simply, I have been livid with rage since Obama failed to come off of the starting blocks in the first debate. Too enraged to piss and moan publicly about it to anyone -- until now. The kind of seething rage that words are incapable of communicating alone without the addition of physical violence on objects. I said that this race was over barring a catastrophe. That it was Obama's too lose. Well, he made a grand attempt to accomplish that feat.

For the life of me I cannot understand it or the man but it his a hallmark of his campaign and management styles. He would manage to let Hillary back in the primary when he had here on the ropes, time and time again. He let the Health Care debate languish and hang on interminably, all the while allowing the GOP to beat the drums of their message in the country side. He fiddle-farted waiting for bipartisan support while Kennedy died, losing the Senate majority. To the positive he plays a long game and manages to pull rabbits out at the end. However, is this game long enough to get to the rabbit?

His entire presidential career has been marked by either the inability or unwillingness to invoke a killer instinct. He could have put Romney away in that debate and ensured a confident Senate majority and a realistic, if long, shot at taking back the House. Those gains come with coat tails. That comes with a strong candidate that puts his opponent away when the opportunity arises.

Not taking anything away from Romney. He performed well and did what he needed to do. He was bound to rise in the polls just by sharing the stage and he did much more than that. However, his 'victory' was accentuated by a listless, less engaged Obama, standing there staring at the floor. The visual was devastating. IMO Obama had the arguments, but then I agree with him. Romney was still selling soap with vague promises of a better tomorrow -talking fast in the style of a used car salesman. But in contrast even that looked good. Boiling it down the the visuals sent to the nation the messages: Romney really wanted to be President, Obama was making himself available for a second term.

Whether the damage is permanent is arguable. I think it is. Obama may still win. Probably will still win, unless he has a second fail. It is certainly possible. I'm not headily confident by any means. But even if he does win his margin will be less, affecting down ticket races here and there across the country. When you need every Senator and House member you can get, margins matter. That is permanent damage if you count permanent in two and six year cycles.

I'm still pissed but I can talk about it now anyway without breaking my computer.

[JKane]

I generally agree with you TY, but headlines like the one of this thread are *very* dangerous--especially for unreliable Democrats, so there is a part of me that wonders if keeping it close wasn't strategy on his part. "We don't have it locked up, everybody *needs* to vote!" kind of thing...

[TampaYankee]

I generally agree with you TY, but headlines like the one of this thread are *very* dangerous--especially for unreliable Democrats, so there is a part of me that wonders if keeping it close wasn't strategy on his part. "We don't have it locked up, everybody *needs* to vote!" kind of thing...

I appreciate your point and it needs to be played upon. But deciding to shoot yourself in the foot because you don't want to look to be too far ahead -- well, that is just stoooopid because you are now limping to the finish line.

[lookin]

Had a similar conversation last week with some friends, one of whom felt there was something going on with Obama that we don't know about yet: perhaps some bad personal news prior to the debate. All conjecture, of course, but he did seem to miss some easy opportunities to refute Romney's 'obfuscations'.

My own response was that, whatever the outcome, I'm not looking for Obama to stop being Obama and try to out-Romney Romney. While the pendulum does need to swing more toward calling Romney out clearly, I would not be happy to see Obama turn into a Romney-like performer who lacks honesty, decency, and a moral compass, all in the interest of 'winning' a debate.

I think he's better than that and so are we.

[TampaYankee]

Well, here it is, the Friday before election day. Usually by this time the handwriting is on the wall in the campaign war rooms. The internal polls show who is up and who is down and where the momentum is or is not. Both sides know. That does not mean that anyone gives up as hope springs eternal.

I believe Obama has recouped much of what he lost in that first debate. The margins are narrower to be sure. He seems to have solid, if narrower, leads in Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. That is the election. There is no end run around that. I believe he will also take New Hampshire and Nevada... and I wouldn't be surprised if he eeked out Virginia too. Nate Silver has him at 303 Electoral College votes today. What momentum there is seems to be with Obama now. The landslide will not be so big but significant.

Obama was coming back to win but there was still a little unease out there until Sandy. I think Hurricane Sandy helped some. It took any real or perceived momentum away from Romney. It basically sucked the oxygen out of his campaign for three days -- a lifetime at this point. It showed Obama in command being Presidential. It showed him working with GOP Governor Christy putting to rest the fabricated notion that he cannot work with the opposition. It showed him acting in a very concerned and compassionate way. It showed that Government (FEMA) has an important role to play in society. It highlighted that Romney has promised in the past to eliminate or down grade FEMA in line with the right wing agenda of dismantling government.

All of that may not have swayed the bases much. However, I'm confident that it played very well to that group making up most undecided voters that are left at this point -- suburban mothers. I think they liked what they saw. I think they believe that government does have a role in society. This episode brought that home at the best time possible IMO.

Romney has been campaigning like a candidate that knows he is losing -- the fabrication of stories that makes his campaign sound uber confident -- like pulling resources out of NC to move to states with closer contests. Of course, when the smoke actually cleared it turned out that only one person was being moved. All campaign offices were remaining in place with the same staffing. Or turning a good news auto story into a BIG LIE to move the Ohio numbers his way. Or the really confident move of burying his very conservative VP candidate in the Deep South to hide from reporters and the rest of the electorate. The list of examples is quite long.

The good news continues. It appears that the Dems have a lock on the Senate. That is amazing considering how many seats were at risk and the uneasy times. The Tea Party continues to be the Dems best friends when it comes to keeping the Senate. Lugar would have been a shoe-in for reelection. The weirdo wacko extremists of today follow in the foot steps of Sharon Angle and the Delaware Witch lady who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2010 Senate races.

The Fat Lady hasn't sang yet but I hear her clearing her pipes. Now comes the trench warfare stage: dirty tricks, voter intimidation and other shenanigans not to mention possible attempts to steal ballots or corrupt voting machines. What the GOP hasn't managed to do legislatively, some will try to do operationally.

I have been extremely upset over this election, more so than any other in my life. I have viewed this election as a watershed event in the history of our nation, pitting the The New Deal and Great Society advancements against the return to the economy of the 20s, the social mores of the 50's and the Robber Barons of the 1880s. There is no doubt in my mind this GOP Congress and Romney would have taken us down that road. I think ultimately the demographics are against the wackos but they were a lot stronger this time than I ever would have anticipated.

More disturbing is the complacency of so many Americans about what politicians are espousing and selling through overt mendacity and deceit. I never would have guessed the American people were so willing to overlook lies and tricks including overt attempts at legalized voter suppression in order to win elections. I, for one, don't understand how one can make an informed choice about a candidate that lies to your face and your neighbors face and tells you not to worry, just trust him. This does not give me confidence in the robustness of our electorate which is the basis of our democracy. Our government, our democracy, is much more fragile that I ever thought.

[Guest hitoallusa]

I think Obama has the weight in the election and he will win with ease.

My silly point is that Republicans are holding to something from the past and can't let go of it. I think they are like the old south before the Civil War.

Once Obama gets re-elected and hope that he finishes what he started. History is always fun and our descendants(?) in the future will look back and say how much some people try to go against unavoidable change.

I do hope our society become better and evolve into something better and better...

[Guest EXPAT]

I have been extremely upset over this election, more so than any other in my life. I have viewed this election as a watershed event in the history of our nation, pitting the The New Deal and Great Society advancements against the return to the economy of the 20s, the social mores of the 50's and the Robber Barons of the 1880s. There is no doubt in my mind this GOP Congress and Romney would have taken us down that road. I think ultimately the demographics are against the wackos but they were a lot stronger this time than I ever would have anticipated.

More disturbing is the complacency of so many Americans about what politicians are espousing and selling through overt mendacity and deceit. I never would have guessed the American people were so willing to overlook lies and tricks including overt attempts at legalized voter suppression in order to win elections. I, for one, don't understand how one can make an informed choice about a candidate that lies to your face and your neighbors face and tells you not to worry, just trust him. This does not give me confidence in the robustness of our electorate which is the basis of our democracy. Our government, our democracy, is much more fragile that I ever thought.

I agree completely. I have also been very upset about this election and the stupidity of some Americans to follow this GOP (including my brother whose logic fails me other than being Fox News influenced).

[TampaYankee]

I caught Romney making two campaign stops today: Ohio and Colorado.

At the first, Ohio, I saw, first, a tight shot on Mrs. Romney with a broad smile on her face panning back and forth over the crowd. I looked more closely and it appeared that she was close to bursting out in tears, literally, and not tears of joy. There was no mistaking it to the close observer. The camera shot opened up to reveal Mitt standing to her left. He was beaming at her with deep love and affection... and an air of resignation. She introduced him with all the right words and pride of someone who thought he would make the best President to lead the country the next four years. He started his campaign speech with the usual talking points. Neither of them had fire or fervor in their words.

The scene in Colorado was an exact replica in every way and I mean exactly.

It was easy to see that they knew. That it was all over. That any hope to the contrary was beyond all practical reason. That there was too much to overcome in the last weekend by shear will and determination. They owed it to their campaign workers and base to keep on moving forward in their campaign schedule to the bitter end just as McCain and Palin did that last weekend. They put on their best faces and met their supporters for a last set of bittersweet embraces.

Of course everyone still has to vote to make this true. That part has to come on Tuesday.

Much will be written about this campaign: the forsaking his history, the secret tax returns, the Swiss bank accounts and Cayman investments, the rush to the extreme right, the never ending flip-flops, even on a daily basis, the never ending faux pas including his trip abroad, the bald faced lies and deceptions, and more. The historians will draw one set of conclusions, the Right another, the GOP establishment a third, maybe.

The blame game has already started. Christy is the present target although cooler heads will know that it started before Sandy. In fact it never really materialized. Yes, there was a turn around in Romney fortunes after the first debate but he never really captured a solid lead or even a tie. Obama was on the surge again - a tepid surge - after the last two debates. In the end Romney himself will get most of the blame. Many will overlook the real cause -- the GOP has become to extreme to appeal to the modern United States demographics.

I predict the base has not learned the lesson but that the establishment has. It will be interesting to see how these two settle their differences in the near future.

[AdamSmith]

TY, thx for the sharp-eyed look at the Romneys in home stretch. I haven't been able to stomach watching him lately. Useful to see they Know.

Fascinating to ruminate by comparison on Hillary late in the '08 primary, and how she never gave up the fire even after the handwriting was more than on the wall. Now that's a political pro, one with a core, with conviction, with authenticity.

As for how the GOP base vs. establishment will shake out -- exactly. Having so long been the party of iron top-down discipline, has been fascinating to watch the elders not know what to do with tea partiers and like upsurge rabblement in their rank and file. Dumping longtime gray-hairs like Lugar et al., defying Boehner in the House, etc.

One thought occurs that the establishment could turn to corporate dollars to try and simply drench the messaging coming up from below by brute force. And through intra-party application of subterfuges of old, such as when the religious right worked to sneak its candidates onto local ballots by picking ones who could publicly pose as much more moderate than they actually were -- only now in reverse. And other against-their-own application of such Atwater-esque ploys.

They have a tortuous road ahead, in all events. I look forward to the spectacle.

[Guest EXPAT]

The Washington Post is reporting on a new book by Michael Grunwald that claims that the Republicans have had it in for President Obama since before he took office, and planned an obstructionist strategy before he was ever sworn in. While it sounds plausible, even I have trouble being this cynical.

[TampaYankee]

When I started this Landslide thread just prior to the first debate Nate Silver was prognosticating the electoral vote at 320 for Obama and 218 for Romney. On this eve of the election Nate is prognosticating 315 for Obama and 223 for Romney with a probability of 92% that Obama will be re-elected. I believe this represents a great Obama recovery after a lot of hard work to climb back in the race. Obama lost some margin in the popular vote however Nate says that the National polls and the swing state polls have lined up in consistency, with Obama ahead slightly ahead in the average of the National polls too. This is all great news if it materializes at the polls tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be a brutal day. Already we have gotten previews of the long lines to be encountered. We still await for the voter intimidation tactics. The Dems say that poll 'watchers' (True The Vote) have targeted mostly minority precincts (83%) 'vote integrity' checks. They claim a million 'watchers' will be on hand. The Dems have asked the DOJ to have observers on hand to monitor the pricincts for fair elections. They will have their own observers too. It will be a long day for all involved.

Let's hope the true will of the people is heard whatever that will is. I'm betting that is for four more years.

[MsGuy]

Closing price on the Iowa Election market was 79 cents for a dollars worth of Obama and 22 cents for a buck of Romney.

Please lord, let it be true.

[JKane]

The Washington Post is reporting on a new book by Michael Grunwald that claims that the Republicans have had it in for President Obama since before he took office, and planned an obstructionist strategy before he was ever sworn in. While it sounds plausible, even I have trouble being this cynical.

The Senate minority leader's top priority over the last two years...

[TampaYankee]

The Fat Lady sang!!

At this time Obama has taken all swing states except NC which went to Romney, and Florida which remains too close to call at this hour but with Obama in the lead. The electoral vote count stands at Obama 303, Romney 203 with 29 remaining in Florida. Either way it is a healthy win for Obama. Some might say a landslide. Obama has taken the lead in the popular votes by over a milliion.

The Senate majority has been retained and possibly strengthened. That looked to be an impossible feat a year ago.

The House remains mired in right wing wackos -- the only disappointment tonight.

All in all it was a good night. The good news is that I won't die a bitter old bastard... not tonight anyway.