Romney setting low expectations for debates

[Guest EXPAT]

Here is a letter #CNN received:

From: Beth Myers, Senior Adviser to Romney

To: Interested Parties

Date: September 27, 2012

Re: 2012 Presidential Debates

In a matter of days, Governor Romney and President Obama will meet on the presidential debate stage. President Obama is a universally-acclaimed public speaker and has substantial debate experience under his belt. However, the record he’s compiled over the last four years – higher unemployment, lower incomes, rising energy costs, and a national debt spiraling out of control – means this will be a close election right up to November 6th.

Between now and then, President Obama and Governor Romney will debate three times. While Governor Romney has the issues and the facts on his side, President Obama enters these contests with a significant advantage on a number of fronts.

Voters already believe – by a 25-point margin – that President Obama is likely to do a better job in these debates. Given President Obama’s natural gifts and extensive seasoning under the bright lights of the debate stage, this is unsurprising. President Obama is a uniquely gifted speaker, and is widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history. This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first.

Four years ago, Barack Obama faced John McCain on the debate stage. According to Gallup, voters judged him the winner of each debate by double-digit margins, and their polling showed he won one debate by an astounding 33-point margin. In the 2008 primary, he faced Hillary Clinton, another formidable opponent – debating her one-on-one numerous times and coming out ahead. The takeaway? Not only has President Obama gained valuable experience in these debates, he also won them comfortably.

But what must President Obama overcome? His record. Based on the campaign he’s run so far, it’s clear that President Obama will use his ample rhetorical gifts and debating experience to one end: attacking Mitt Romney. Since he won’t – and can’t – talk about his record, he’ll talk about Mitt Romney. We fully expect a 90-minute attack ad aimed at tearing down his opponent. If President Obama is as negative as we expect, he will have missed an opportunity to let the American people know his vision for the next four years and the policies he’d pursue. That’s not an opportunity Mitt Romney will pass up. He will talk about the big choice in this election – the choice between President Obama’s government-centric vision and Mitt Romney’s vision for an opportunity society with more jobs, higher take-home pay, a better-educated workforce, and millions of Americans lifted out of poverty into the middle class.

This election will not be decided by the debates, however. It will be decided by the American people. Regardless of who comes out on top in these debates, they know we can’t afford another four years like the last four years. And they will ultimately choose a better future by electing Mitt Romney to be our next president.

[lookin]

I think both candidates are hewing to a strategy of under-promise and over-deliver. Makes sense to me.

Here's an interesting article from The Daily Beast that focuses on the "big lines" that clinched previous presidential and vice-presidential debates, lines like "There you go again." (Ronald Reagan to Jimmy Carter) and "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." (Lloyd Bentsen to Dan Quayle). The article suggests that there's more to these debates than just the talking points; there's the strategy of goading your opponent into handing you a "gotcha" line.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Obama will scorch Romney, three out of three. Obama's a deep thinker and he's got a good head on his shoulders. I have no doubt that Romney will hew to a few well-worn factoids that will resonate with his base, but I doubt he'll have the depth of reason behind him that Obama has. And since the debates will likely have the most impact on the undecideds who, I believe, are more likely to be thoughtful voters looking for additional insights, I think Obama will put more points on the board.

[TotallyOz]

Do you think these debates really matter? I am really? Hey, I love them. I eat up every word and every argument and misstep. But, do you think they matter with the few people that really count?

[Guest EXPAT]

I think if Obama does as well as I expect him to that it will put him even further ahead of Romney as we get closer to the election.

[AdamSmith]

Why do I suspect that Obama's debate misstep "You're pretty likable" to Hillary in 2008 has no least syllable's risk of being repeated this time around? Axelrod, Plouffe, et al.will be scripting him to the microsecond.

One can hardly wait.