PPP in a Landslide

[TotallyOz]

Early and unofficial results show the Palang Prachachon (People Power) party loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra has won an outright parliamentary majority in Sunday's election.

 

The PPP has taken 220 of the 400 seats in constituency voting, and has won 35 of the 80 party-list seats.

 

If those results are confirmed in official vote-counting Sunday night and Monday, the People Power party would easily capture more than the 241 seats needed to form a government itself - with no need of a coalition.

 

Observers cautioned there are several roadblocks ahead, even after final vote-counting is confirmed. For one thing, there are dozens of challenges alleging vote fraud, many against PPP candidates.

 

It must be stressed the results are unofficial, and based on a combination of exit polls and early vote results trickling in as reported by news media at polling stations.

 

http://bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=124658

[Guest wowpow]

People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej declared victor and announced that he would contest to form a coalition.

 

He said the People Power has only some seats short of simple majority so it would like to invite other parties to join its coalition.

 

The Nation

 

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22.17 hrs

92% of votes counted; PPP wins 228 seats

 

(BangkokPost.com) - People Power party (PPP) continues its lead as 92 per cent of votes have been counted as of Sunday 10pm.

 

Unofficial results showed PPP wins 228 seats while its rival Democrat party gets 166 seats from a total of 480 seats of both constituency and party-list candidacy.

 

Chart Thai party wins 39 seats so far while Puea Pandin party gets 26 seats, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana wins 10 seats, Matchimathipataya has 7 seats and Pracharaj has 4 seats.

 

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As so often in Politics the estimates vary wildly. When the official count comes it will look clear but then there are many claims of breaches of the rules.

 

It looks very likely that the PPP with join with some minor parties to gain a majority to form a Government.

 

Though I am no expert it looks as if there is a good chance of having a strong Government which is good even if it makes the whole coup look foolish.

 

 

 

[Guest]

Is this not the party that is supportive of Thaskin? If so, what are the odd he will return to power in the near future?

[Guest]

Great article in New York Times today:

 

BANGKOK — A political party that supports former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appeared headed for a victory Sunday over a party backed by the military junta that ousted him in a coup 15 months ago, exit polls showed.

 

Two independent polls showed the People Power Party ahead by a wide margin in a strong repudiation of the generals, who had worked hard to discredit Mr. Thaksin and to neutralize his supporters.

 

The strong result means that Mr. Thaksin and his supporters will remain a force in Thai politics whether or not they form a government and ensures that a struggle for power will continue in this deeply divided country.

 

A Dusit Poll for Suan Dusit University forecast an absolute majority win for the People Power Party of 256 seats, followed by 162 for the Democrat Party in the 480-seat parliament. Assumption University's Abac poll showed a large plurality for the People Power Party of 202 seats, with the Democrat Party winning 146 seats.

 

The Dusit poll surveyed 341,000 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The Abac poll surveyed 500,000 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

 

"This is a crucial election because it will determine whether Thaksin will come back or not," said Kavi Chongkittavorn, a political commentator at the daily newspaper The Nation.

 

The People Power Party said during the campaign that it would bring Thaksin back from his self-exile in London, where he is believed to have remained politically active behind the scenes.

 

During the rule of the junta, a court disbanded Mr. Thaksin's former party, Thai Rak Thai, for election irregularities. It also banned him and 110 other party executives from politics for five years. The People Power Party said that it would pardon them all.

 

Under election law, though, Mr. Thaksin could not become prime minister in the incoming government because he would not be an elected member of Parliament.

 

Political analysts have predicted that the generals would use political muscle to try to keep Mr. Thaksin's backers from returning to power, and the shape of a future government remained in question.

 

If no party wins an absolute majority, the analysts said, the generals could pressure smaller parties to join a ruling coalition with the Democrat Party. If the People Power Party wins a majority, that result could still change if the Election Commission disqualifies some winners for campaign irregularities.

 

The election commission is considering possible sanctions for the circulation of a banned CD of Mr. Thaksin urging voters to vote for the People Power Party. Some analysts see this as a possible pretext for disbanding the party in the same way in which Thai Rak Thai was disbanded.

 

The leader of the party, and a potential prime minister, is Samak Sundaravej, 72, a tough, old-school politician who faces charges of corruption and who openly calls himself a proxy for Mr. Thaksin.

 

The leader of the Democrat Party is Abhisit Vejjajiva, 43, a graduate of Eton and Oxford who sometimes seems less comfortable in the rough-and-tumble of Thai political infighting.

 

A veteran deal-maker, Banharn Silpa-archa, 75, has flirted with both leading parties, offering his smaller party as a possible coalition partner. His own 16-month tenure as prime minister in the mid-1990s was an example of the fragmented and ineffectual coalition governments that plagued Thailand before Mr. Thaksin won the first parliamentary majority in the country's history.

 

At stake in the election Sunday was more than raw power; the vote was seen as part of a long-running clash of cultures that became acute during Mr. Thaksin's six years in power.

 

With a broad array of populist programs, Mr. Thaksin mobilized the electoral power of the country's rural majority, threatening the traditional domination of an established elite that includes the bureaucracy, the military and the royalist aristocracy.

 

"I voted for Thaksin's party," said Siriporn Buntam, the owner of a small restaurant in the rice-growing province of Lopburi, west of Bangkok. Mr. Thaksin was the only politician who cared about the poor, she said. "Only when he was prime minister did we really get attention."

 

Sanit Chutipattana, 58, a salesman in Yala, in the Democrat Party's stronghold in southern Thailand, said that he, too, was supporting Mr. ,Thaksin.

 

"I want Thaksin back," he said. "Thaksin is smarter, better in economics. In the past I had voted for Democrats, but this time I changed my mind. It's time to change."

 

A groundswell for Mr. Thaksin was evident as the campaign proceeded. The appointed civilian government has been seen as drifting and ineffectual, and the Democrats failed to seize on Mr. Thaksin's misfortunes to build popular support.

 

The military appears to have prepared itself for challenges that cannot be managed by political pressure and horse trading.

 

When they seized power, the generals said that they were doing so in the name of democracy and promised to return the country to civilian rule. But they produced a new Constitution that weakened democratic institutions and shifted power from the executive branch while guaranteeing the continued influence of the military.

 

Under an internal security law adopted just last week, the military will have the power to intervene in the political process without consultation with the civilian government.

 

"The internal security bill allows the military to overrule all the rights in the Constitution, in a sense," said Jon Ungpakorn, a former senator who is part of the democracy movement here.

 

"The military can order people to remain confined to their homes. They can prevent people from traveling for demonstrations. They can have people arrested without charges," he said.

 

Last August, as the law was being drafted, the New York-based Human Rights Watch branded it "a silent coup."

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/world/as...nyt&emc=rss