Why White House race is a close call

[TotallyOz]

That might be the simplest way to sum up John McCain's campaign for the US presidency right now. He's not winning, but he's running stronger than anyone knows how to explain.

McCain is a fascinating figure with a compelling personal and political story.

He was a feisty young pilot shot-down in Vietnam, where he was imprisoned for nearly six years. As a 71-year-old Senator, he is still an outspoken figure, willing to wage a lonely battle without, or even against, his own party.

Right now, McCain is in an uphill fight for the presidency and ought to be doing badly, hurt by an unpopular Republican incumbent, two wars and a terrible economy.

By contrast, Barack Obama is a charismatic candidate who is setting records for fundraising and voter turnout, buoyed by enormous media attention.

But McCain, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, is ahead among likely voters, 49 to 45 per cent.

Other polls still give the lead to Obama but even they routinely give him only a few percentage points and none puts him above 50 per cent.

That's even more remarkable after that tumultuous week of travel, during which Obama was virtually endorsed by the prime minister of Iraq, greeted by a crowd of 200,000 people in Germany, and given breathless coverage by the American media all the way.

The pollsters are looking at the race very differently from the way the press is, and they see something close to a tie.

CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser says the Democrats are "dumfounded that this election is closer than it should be, at least according to the national polls."

So what's happening?

Obviously, people like McCain personally in a way that has nothing to do with his party, his support for President Bush or the wars the president has been leading.

But also, think of the US election as a referendum on Obama that Obama isn't winning. He's doing well, but many Americans still won't vote for him and McCain is the beneficiary.

A lot of Americans simply like John McCain and aren't ready to back Obama.

Is that enough to get a man elected president? It might be.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/31...cain/index.html

Being overseas at the moment, I have to rely on the net and Fox News for politics. Needless to say, Fox gives me little comfort. But, I do think this election will be a nail-bitter.

I am ready to make my prediction. McCain will win the nomination with the electoral college and O'bama will win the popular vote. Odds? I thought when this happened in 2000 that the Congress was going to change all this? Did I just dream that in my nightly political fantasy?

[TampaYankee]

Being overseas at the moment, I have to rely on the net and Fox News for politics. Needless to say, Fox gives me little comfort. But, I do think this election will be a nail-bitter.

I am ready to make my prediction. McCain will win the nomination with the electoral college and O'bama will win the popular vote. Odds? I thought when this happened in 2000 that the Congress was going to change all this? Did I just dream that in my nightly political fantasy?

If you have to rely on Fox News for politics then certainly your are getting a very slanted picture. They are very busy and actively grinding their ax. I have given up watching Fox altogether because of their strong slant to the Repubs. I don't watch much of the others either when it is just party sychophants trotting out talking points and then talking past each other. I'm past the taste for blatant propaganda presentations.

The election may be a close call either way or it may be a blow-out for Obama, I think. Too early to tell. Let's see how the economy performs and whether we have any terrorist action near the election. If Obama wins I think he will have a very comfortable electoral vote lead. Let's see what late Sept. brings.

I strongly supported McCain in 2000. I thought he and Bradley were the only candidates worth considering. (The activist dems didn't have the wisdom to support Bradley.) I was deeply disappointed that McCain did not prevail on the Repub side. The Bush South Carolina primary antics was the reason I refused to even consider Bush in the general election. I say this as background so you know where I am coming from.

McCain 2008 bears no resemblance to McCain 2000, IMO. Basically, he as sold out to the religious right, and to the far right. He as flip-flopped on many positions to curry favor with the Republican base and the Party of God. He has dropped his forthright, above-board demeanor and principles of character to descend into the mendacity of gutter political tactics. He denies his own statements, and not just rarely -- something I thought I would never see.

But far more than all of that, what I realize now and what I had no inkling of in 2000 is that I am seriously concerned about his temperment and judgment. That may or may not be an effect of advancing age. (I've gotten crankier with age too. ) Those are two attributes critical to the President and Commander-in-Chief.

I am concerned that these perceptions, which seem so apparent to me, are overlooked by the electorate, so far anyway. Also, the press lets him skate time-after-time on faux pas: low political tactics, misstatements, lapases of geographical knowledge, Al-Kaida vs insurgents, etc., etc., etc. It's as though they view his present actions, statements, behavior, and flip-flopped principles and positions through a lense eight years ago. At worst just a head scratching reaction when these occur, then moving on.

A final thought about McCain... I believe the probability of getting involved in another unnecessary war is very much greater with McCain. It's that judgement/temperment thing that worries me.

Now before anybody responds to me about Obama this and that.... Obama is not my point. My point is why I went from a most enthusiastic McCain supporter in 2000 to a disappointed and disaffected former supporter that can not support him now or in the future.

It seems this turned into a bit of a rant. How did that happen?

[Guest Conway]

I have given up watching Fox altogether because of their strong slant to the Repubs.

It is funny that you say that, TY, because as a lifelong Republican voter who's not particularly enthused by McCain the candidate, I feel the same way about CNN. Just the the other night, I was thinking, while watching CNN's coverage of the "race card issue" (one of the silliest issues of this campaign season- Obama is of half African descent- duh!), I was thinking to myself that Obama couldn't have been given a better approach to covering that issue by his own campaign team.

George Bush won the 2004 Presidential election for two reasons. First, he targeted a critical elements of the electorate (the religious right) and made getting them out to vote in key swing states a priority. Second, John Kerry did himself no favors first trying to portray himself a war hero when, in fact, he spent far more time protesting America's involvement in Vietnam than he did fighting in that conflict.

Obama's strategy is somewhat similar. He is targeting a huge turnout of African American voters on election day, the likes of which American Presidential politics has never seen. At the same time, he is attempting to brand McCain as too archaic to relate to a large majority of the American public, the same way that the Bush political team branded Kerry too dishonest to be trusted in a moment of crisis.

Like that election, I fully expect the polls to be close, even showing a slight lead toward McCain up until election day.

McCain has failed to appeal broadly to the evangelical Christian voting block that delivered the 2004 election to Bush. Unless something changes between now and election day, that group will not deliver the same significant support to McCain that it did to Bush.

In my opinion, Obama's success or failure on election day will be reflected in how successful he is effectively bringing out the national African American vote that usually stays at home on election day out of indifference.

If the election is held among what the pollsters call likely voters, McCain will win just like John Kerry would have won in 2004. It is the questionable element of the success of organizing otherwise non-likely groups of voters that will determine the winner of this election.

The 44th president of the United States will have a number of challenges ahead of him that this country has not seen since the early 1970s, and in some cases, since the great depression.

Our financial markets are in substantial dangers of being culled back and reorganized much like the banking system was after the great depression.

The increasing price of energy may lead our economy into a period of stagflation in which salaries will not be remotely capable of keeping up with the soaring prices of food, energy and transportation.

The world will begin dealing with the reality that rogue nations now have the ability to produce nuclear weapons leading us back to, at best, a world strategy of mutually assured destruction as our best defense against war between the owners of those weapons.

There is the very real possibility that the entire domestic airline industry could fail in the next five to ten years.

As the baby boom begins to retire in large numbers, we will begin to see the effect of those who have failed to plan for their own survival in retirement for the many years that Congress leveraged the social security system to pay for domestic spending as well as those who pursued the strategy of building value in their homes versus saving and investing now that we are in what appears to be a long downward term adjustment (possibly 20 years or more) in housing values.

I wouldn't want the job.

[TampaYankee]

It is funny that you say that, TY, because as a lifelong Republican voter who's not particularly enthused by McCain the candidate, I feel the same way about CNN.

I selodm watch CNN. Less than seldom.

In my opinion, Obama's success or failure on election day will be reflected in how successful he is effectively bringing out the national African American vote that usually stays at home on election day out of indifference.

I believe that African American voter turnout will be astounding. The under 30 is much more uncertain. They are motivated but they dont have 400 years of history to overcome in their own heads.

The 44th president of the United States will have a number of challenges ahead of him that this country has not seen since...

I agree

There is the very real possibility that the entire domestic airline industry could fail in the next five to ten years.

Depends on what you mean by fail. IMO the era of casual flying is coming to an end, at least for the working class and curtailed for many of those better off. To survive the airlines will have to overhaul their fleets with new more efficient planes. That will be a slow process because they are in the red and falling, without cash to support wholesale revamping of fleets, even if the production was there. It will revert much to the flavor of the 50s and 60s when only the well heeled and business people flew. Others were shut out by the fares. Many of the younger today may not realizebe aware of that history.

... now that we are in what appears to be a long downward term adjustment (possibly 20 years or more) in housing values.

I remain to be convinced it will last anywhere near that long. I think one year maybe 18 mos or 2 years at most. That depends, in part, on the price of gasoline. However, I don't think you will see housing prices inflate as they did in the past. The present day realities don't support that.

Suburban and gentrified rural America won't flourish in the coming fuel environment unless cheaper gasoline alternatives are perfected. Few alternatives ever undercut the price of the mainstream product but they relieve price pressure on that product, in this case gasoline.

I wouldn't want the job.

Neither would I. You understate the challenges IMO. I'm not confident that any president can overcome the many challenges we are facing. Success may be measured in handling a very few. And that assumes a coopeartive Congress which heretofore has been more interested in dancing to the tunes of lobbyists. That applies to both parties which have a common hunger at the trough.

[Guest JamesWilson]

But McCain, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, is ahead among likely voters, 49 to 45 per cent.

Other polls still give the lead to Obama but even they routinely give him only a few percentage points and none puts him above 50 per cent.

That's even more remarkable after that tumultuous week of travel, during which Obama was virtually endorsed by the prime minister of Iraq, greeted by a crowd of 200,000 people in Germany, and given breathless coverage by the American media all the way.

The pollsters are looking at the race very differently from the way the press is, and they see something close to a tie.

CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser says the Democrats are "dumfounded that this election is closer than it should be, at least according to the national polls."

So what's happening?

Keep in mind that...

1) It's summertime. People really are not interested in presidential politics right now, and need a break after the busy nomination campaigns. I don't think people will really start getting serious about who they are going to vote for until October.

2) It is in the pollsters best interests for the poll results to be close. That way they will be asked to conduct more and more polls. (Am I basically saying that I have no faith in the professional integrity of the polling companies? You bet!)

3) The poll results may be very, VERY wrong. Pollsters don't like to admit it, but anyone with a background in polling/statistics can tell you (but probably won't!) that trying to figure out what is in the mind of a population based on telephone polls is notoriously difficult. To be accurate, the following conditions need to be succesfully met:

1) the poll questions need to be neutral (i.e. no biases from the survey writers)

2) the respondants need to be selected perfectly randomly

3) the respondants need to tell the truth

... and even if those rules are successfully achieved, there is still a statistical chance (usually in the range of 2-5%) that the results are completely wrong anyway.

Frankly, I don't think that any of these conditions are being met consistently. I say that because:

1) many pollsters use telephone directories to select the people that they contact, but most telephone directories do not include cellphone numbers, which more and more people (especially younger people) have as their primary phone line. Result... respondants are skewed towards older voters, and those who have lived at their address for a longer period of time. Younger voters, and more transient voters, tend not to be contacted.

2) many people hang up, refuse to answer, or even outright lie when called. This basically (in my opinion) invalidates the integrity of the polls, because it screws up the "randomly selected" requirement that helps ensure accurate results.

3) pollsters can skew the results of their polls by playing with the wording of the questions (injecting their own biasses). Given the hyper-politicized nature of American politics these days, I doubt there is any polling organization out there that is willing to conduct an unbiased poll anymore

Bottom line? In my opinion, the only real poll that matters is the one in November. And I think McCain is going to get slaughtered... by at least a 10 point margin in the popular vote.

[BiBottomBoy]

As we've seen since the start of the primaries polls don't mean dogshit on a summer's day this time around.

There are a few reasons for this:

1. More young people are voting than ever - and most young people own cell phones and not landlines. And pollsters only call landlines, so most people under about 28 are not being polled at all.

2. Older retired people are the most likely people to participate in polls - because they are bored, at home and have nothing to do. Taking part in a poll in interesting. The rest of us are too busy fucking/drinking/working/hitting the gym to do anything but hang up when a poll person calls. This skews towards McCain

3. On the other hand a lot of people feel like if they don't say "Obama" when a pollster calls that they'll be considered a racist so they say "Obama" even if they are secretly going to write in "Ron Jeremey" come election day.

That said, the race may be tight. But if it's tight it's because the Democrats managed to nominate a virtually unknown one term senator with no international experience who used to belong to a batshit crazy church. He scares the hell out of a lot of moderates and independants. The GOP on the other hand picked an experienced guy who has gone against his own party enough times to make moderates and independents think he might be a good guy.

Finally, the American electorate has historically hated having the president and the congress be the same party. So, a lot of people are planning to vote democrat at the congressional level and for McCain for president to balance their vote out.

[TotallyOz]

That said, the race may be tight. But if it's tight it's because the Democrats managed to nominate a virtually unknown one term senator with no international experience who used to belong to a batshit crazy church. He scares the hell out of a lot of moderates and independants. The GOP on the other hand picked an experienced guy who has gone against his own party enough times to make moderates and independents think he might be a good guy.

I have no doubt the race will be tight. I see it is a Obama popular vote victory and a McCain win for the election. That has been my prediction for a while. The democrats do not learn from past mistakes. They keep going down the same road. Hillary would be a true asset to the ticket but those that have Obama's ear aren't savvy enough to put this together.

[BiBottomBoy]

It's not even that they aren't savvy enough to tell him to put Hillary on - it's that they are so bitter that Hillary fought until the end of the primary races and kicked his ass in Pennsylvania.

It's like his campaign is run by spiteful children, rather than real grown up political people who have some basic understanding national politics.

They've also don't live in the real world. The truth is Obama is popular with well educated people, young white people and minorities. These people make up the bulk of the Democratic party.

What they've forgotten is that well educated people, young white and minorities don't make up the majority of America as a whole and certainly don't make up the majority of huge electoral college states like Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Plus, Hispanics hate Obama, which makes California and New Mexico a challenge. Now, by bumping Hillary they've alienated women.

Their only prayer is that the Crazy Christian people hate McCain, so they may simply not vote, which would throw a bunch of southern states into play.

I tell you what I'd do if I was Obama and didn't want to pull Hillary in as my running mate.

I'd pick Christine Todd Whitman. She's a republican, but a moderate republican who broke with Bush when he screwed her over while she was a member of his cabinet. She managed to become a republican governor of New Jersey - which is almost impossible and she's sane.

He'd bring the women back, and he'd pull a bunch of moderate republicans over to his ticket. Then, assuming the Jesus freaks stay home and that college kids for once actually come out and vote instead of talking about voting but doing too many bong hits to remember when election day is, he might have a shot.

[Guest StuCotts]

All the following is written without considering the unknowable effects on the election of the Rep slime machine, only now gearing up in earnest.

If Obama is not elected it will be because too many Americans don't want to see a black in the White House, no matter how brilliant and charismatic he is and how drab and feckless his competitor. Many, many of them won't admit this bias to anybody, but find pretexts that sound like more respectable reasons to reject his candidacy. Least of all will they admit it to polltakers, preferring to lie and say they like him, thus giving rise to the Bradley effect. Those who aren't already familiar with it, see below.

Obama will surely look better in the lead-up polls than in the final election results. If his fervent supporters are numerous enough to drive his poll figures up commandingly, and then vote accordingly, he has a chance. Otherwise, no. After the defeat, count on those who polled yes and voted no to express shock that his qualities have been denied the nation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[Guest epigonos]

As I see it in the end the election is going to have little or nothing to do with John McCain. A series of circumstances both intentional and unintentional have created a situation where this election is going to be about just how many voters will or will not vote for Barack Obama.

Guys in the end I think he is going to have a hard time getting elected. African American voters constitute only 12.7% of the electorate. An equal or greater number of Clinton votes will likely refuse to cross over and vote for Obama. Don't for a minute underestimate racism in this country. Political correctness make it unlikely that voters will openly state that they would not vote for an African American BUT that type of political correctness does not exist in the ballot box. Unfortuninately I believe huge numbers of voters especially those over 50 will not vote for an African American. It is also important to note that traditionally to 50+ crowd votes in huge numbers. As someone stated earlier young people are hughly enthuastic one day and bored the next. It will be interesting to see just how many actually vote. The problem with the mayor of Detroit certainly isn't going to help Obama in Michigan. . Also though the Right Rev. Wright appears to be gone and forgotten DON’T be too surprised if he isn’t resurrected.

This entire election season has thus far been a wild ride. There is an excellent chance that we are not going to know the outcome until Wednesday, November 12th. At least it isn’t dull

[BiBottomBoy]

Just yesterday it was announced the Rev. Wright has written a book about his relationship with Obama that is going to go on sale in October.

Imagine that.

Obama needs to put Hillary on the ticket now if he wants any chance at this thing.

If nothing else, she'll convince older voters that people in the White House will be doing something other than playing pinball in the afternoon.

As I see it in the end the election is going to have little or nothing to do with John McCain. A series of circumstances both intentional and unintentional have created a situation where this election is going to be about just how many voters will or will not vote for Barack Obama.

Guys in the end I think he is going to have a hard time getting elected. African American voters constitute only 12.7% of the electorate. An equal or greater number of Clinton votes will likely refuse to cross over and vote for Obama. Don't for a minute underestimate racism in this country. Political correctness make it unlikely that voters will openly state that they would not vote for an African American BUT that type of political correctness does not exist in the ballot box. Unfortuninately I believe huge numbers of voters especially those over 50 will not vote for an African American. It is also important to note that traditionally to 50+ crowd votes in huge numbers. As someone stated earlier young people are hughly enthuastic one day and bored the next. It will be interesting to see just how many actually vote. The problem with the mayor of Detroit certainly isn't going to help Obama in Michigan. . Also though the Right Rev. Wright appears to be gone and forgotten DON’T be too surprised if he isn’t resurrected.

This entire election season has thus far been a wild ride. There is an excellent chance that we are not going to know the outcome until Wednesday, November 12th. At least it isn’t dull

[TotallyOz]

Just yesterday it was announced the Rev. Wright has written a book about his relationship with Obama that is going to go on sale in October.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

At least, that is, when it comes to the latest developments in the burgeoning Barack Obama book-publishing industry. The good news came first, with Roland Martin of Essence magazine knocking down a widespread report Tuesday that Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Jr., would publish a new memoir and hit the road to promote it in October. Communicating through Wright's daughter Jeri, Martin managed to contact the controversial minister-- who's currently teaching and ministering in Ghana--to ask whether the rumors were true. "Nope, I'm not publishing anything," he said. "I'm not going on any book tours.'" Inevitably, Wright's reemergence would've shaped up as a rather unpleasant October Surprise for Team Obama, given that it had the potential, as New York's John Heilemann wrote Monday, to "place the topic of Obama’s blackness (along with his patriotism and his candor about what he heard in the pews in all those years at Trinity Church) squarely at the center of the national debate." So you could almost hear them high-fiving in Chicago when the Reverend himself denied the reports.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/arc...ets-booked.aspx

[BiBottomBoy]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

At least, that is, when it comes to the latest developments in the burgeoning Barack Obama book-publishing industry. The good news came first, with Roland Martin of Essence magazine knocking down a widespread report Tuesday that Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Jr., would publish a new memoir and hit the road to promote it in October. Communicating through Wright's daughter Jeri, Martin managed to contact the controversial minister-- who's currently teaching and ministering in Ghana--to ask whether the rumors were true. "Nope, I'm not publishing anything," he said. "I'm not going on any book tours.'" Inevitably, Wright's reemergence would've shaped up as a rather unpleasant October Surprise for Team Obama, given that it had the potential, as New York's John Heilemann wrote Monday, to "place the topic of Obama’s blackness (along with his patriotism and his candor about what he heard in the pews in all those years at Trinity Church) squarely at the center of the national debate." So you could almost hear them high-fiving in Chicago when the Reverend himself denied the reports.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/arc...ets-booked.aspx

Interesting - I'd hard the report on Wright's book promoted so many places that I assumed it was true.

I still think it's going to be an interesting ride to November.

And I really hope there are no skeletons in Obama's closet waiting to come out.

[Guest Conway]

And I really hope there are no skeletons in Obama's closet waiting to come out.

Um, he's a Chicago politician. Chicago politicians and skeletons in the closet are synonymous with one another.

John Kerry appeared to have a clear path to the White House ion 2004. It was only after he received the nomination that the all out assault on his war record, his character, and his record (or his lack thereof as a public official) began.

It will be the same with Obama. On the other hand, the press will pull the same scummy tactics that they did against Bush in 2004 to try to influence the election in the late terms of it.

That's American politics.

[BiBottomBoy]

Um, he's a Chicago politician. Chicago politicians and skeletons in the closet are synonymous with one another.

John Kerry appeared to have a clear path to the White House ion 2004. It was only after he received the nomination that the all out assault on his war record, his character, and his record (or his lack thereof as a public official) began.

It will be the same with Obama. On the other hand, the press will pull the same scummy tactics that they did against Bush in 2004 to try to influence the election in the late terms of it.

That's American politics.

Yeah, back during the primaries that was one of the points I kept making to Obama supporters - putting up a candidate from the Daley political machine is a bad, bad idea.

I think there is a certain "cult of personality" that the democrats built up around Obama that has blinded them to certain political realities.

Also, Obama is really putting a lot of his hope on the idea that young people will come out and vote in droves - the problem being that over the years this tactic has failed time and time again. People in their late teens and early 20s talk about going out to vote, but when the day itself arrives rarely do in large numbers.

I'm also worried that one of the democratic strategies will be to paint McCain as "too old." That has backfire written all over it, since senior citizens always come out to vote in droves - particularly in Electoral College heavy states like Florida and California.

[BigK]

I tell you what I'd do if I was Obama and didn't want to pull Hillary in as my running mate.

I'd pick Christine Todd Whitman. She's a republican, but a moderate republican who broke with Bush when he screwed her over while she was a member of his cabinet. She managed to become a republican governor of New Jersey - which is almost impossible and she's sane.

He'd bring the women back, and he'd pull a bunch of moderate republicans over to his ticket. Then, assuming the Jesus freaks stay home and that college kids for once actually come out and vote instead of talking about voting but doing too many bong hits to remember when election day is, he might have a shot.

That would really shake things up and just might work. Similar situation if McCain picks Lieberman.

[TotallyOz]

That would really shake things up and just might work. Similar situation if McCain picks Lieberman.

I agree with that. What if McCain picks Rice? Does that have as much pull?

I always thought a real shocker would be if McCain picks Hillary. That would really throw things into a spin.

[BiBottomBoy]

I agree with that. What if McCain picks Rice? Does that have as much pull?

I always thought a real shocker would be if McCain picks Hillary. That would really throw things into a spin.

I'm not sure if black lesbian war mongers are really a draw to the ticket. Like, what are there five other people who could possibly relate to her?

Condi's like her own niche market.