David Gergen says Hillary as VP

[TotallyOz]

One of the most intelligent guys in the game suggests that Hillary be put on the ticket for many reasons. I agree!

http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/01/revi...e-hillary-idea/

[TampaYankee]

One of the most intelligent guys in the game suggests that Hillary be put on the ticket for many reasons. I agree!

http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/01/revi...e-hillary-idea/

I like David Gergen. I have a lot of respect for David Gergen. I often agree with David Gergan...

[Guest JamesWilson]

One of the most intelligent guys in the game suggests that Hillary be put on the ticket for many reasons. I agree!

http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/01/revi...e-hillary-idea/

This from the article:

"Barack Obama has just come off a couple of the best weeks we have ever seen for a campaigner. What other candidate has walked so safely through the minefields of the Middle East and drawn over 200,000 people in Europe? Given the unpopularity of President Bush and the meandering campaign of John McCain, one would ordinarily expect that Obama would have opened up a lead of 10 points or so. Yet we see just the opposite happening: whatever small bounce he may have gotten overseas is evaporating. This week started with Obama up 9 points in the Gallup tracking poll; that lead has shrunk day by day so that this morning, they are tied at 44-44."

Yes, it could be that the American people, seeing how well Obama did on the world stage and seeing how poorly Bush and McCain have been doing, would decide that McCain is a better candidate for President. Absolutely, it is quite possible. However, it is also possible that the polls are bullshit... either completely and hopelessly inaccurate (which I have commented on elsewhere), or gamed by political operatives pulling the strings from behind the scenes.

What, you don't think that Karl Rove and his disciples would stoop to (or be able to) affect poll results? If they were willing/able to manipulate the US Supreme Court into installing their candidate in 2004, don't you think they could play fast and loose with a few numbers in a poll that hardly anyone understands?

" The conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton would be divisive on the ticket, driving away many voters. No doubt, she will drive away some, but the Obama campaign has to weigh how many others she would help to bring in. Yesterday, Lanny Davis — a long-time supporter of the Clintons..."

...and therefore biassed as hell...

"... — wrote an important article in the Wall Street Journal laying out the case for Hillary. He pointed to a recent Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll (taken July 22-23)..."

Why on God's Green Earth would anyone believe a poll conducted by Fox????

"... showing that in a head-to-head, Obama held a narrow 1-point lead over McCain, 41-40. But when voters in the same sample were asked to choose between Obama-Clinton vs. McCain-Romney, the Democrats gained a net of 8 points, leading 48-39! The big difference was that running alone, Obama got 74% of the Democratic vote, but with Clinton on the ticket, he got 86% — a significant 12% increase. "

NOT TRUE! Or at least, that is only one possible interpretation. It could also be that the addition of Clinton to the ticket had no effect at all, and the 8-point gain in votes was because ROMNEY was on the ticket with McCain!

I think that Fox (i.e. the mouthpiece of the Republican party) is pulling a fast one here. I think they are trying to manuever the Democrats into putting Hillary on the ticket because they WANT her (and Bill) to be there! They put together a bogus poll, suggesting that an Obama-Hillary ticket is stronger than an Obama-anybody else ticket, because they believe that McCain (and Rove) will have the best chance if they can attack both Obama AND Hillary. They are probably also drooling at the chance to get an obviously losing-it Bill Clinton involved in the campaign, not only for the negative press that he seems likely to generate during the campaign, but also for the nasty dynamics that it could set up within the Obama-Clinton camp during the runup to the election.

With all the hundreds of millions of dollars being thrown around behind the scenes to influence the election of the US President, I think Americans need to become a lot more educated, and more suspicious, about the role that the media plays in all of this. Media fawning leading up to the invasion of Iraq, as well as in the months and years afterward, has proved to me that the US media has not been serving the US public at all well. In the runup to this next Presidential election, PLEASE don't take what ANYONE in the media says at face value... use your critical thinking skills to look behind what they are saying to find the hidden motivations, because I guarantee they are there!

[AdamSmith]

Gergen is plugged in. My guess is he wrote this after getting tipped that Obama may pull the Hillary surprise out of his hat. (Gergen teaches at the Kennedy School and, now with Galbraith gone, is easy to spot as one of the tallest people in Harvard Sq. The day after his editorial came out I ran across him and floated this theory, but he would only grin.)

[Guest epigonos]

You know guys I am going to go out a limb on this one. First let me say that I have been wrong about most things regarding this campaign, so far, so I just might be wrong here too. As I see it both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have far more to loose than gain by having Hillary on the Democratic National Ticket.

Just exactly what does Obama gain in having Hilary as his Vice Presidental running mate? Well it might, just might, placate some of her feminist supporters but nobody can seriously believe that these women would ever vote for John McCain. The most they might do is stay home in November and not vote. Traditionally Vice-Presidential candidates can be expected to be of assistance in their home state BUT again nobody can seriously believe that the voters of New York would ever vote for McCain. The big question is just how much help would she provide him in old fashioned labor states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? Personally I seriously doubt she would help him much in those states. First and foremost people DO NOT vote for a national political ticket based on the Vice Presidential nominee. Second old fashioned laborites are aging, many are World War II veterans, and the likelihood that they would vote for a 47 year old African American man is, in my opinion, very slight. Now what does Obama loose having Hilary sharing the ticket with him. Well it leaves him with a well known albatross, named Bill Clinton, hanging around his neck for four or possibly eight years. Someone as young and inexperienced as Obama certainly does not need or want a situation where the press could, and would, go to his Vice President’s husband, a former President, and have him second guess every one of Obama’s major and possibly even minor decisions. That type of situation would be an utter disaster for an Obama presidency.

Now just exactly what does Clinton gain by accepting the position of Vice President on a ticket headed by Obama. Well she will have the “wonderful†power of being the presiding officer of the United States Senate – whoopee big fucking deal!!! Additionally she would have the satisfaction of knowning that she did what is noble and right by attempting to unify the Democratic Party. If you believe that either of the Clinton’s is more interested in the unity of the Democratic Party than in personal power you also believe in Santa Claus. Now what would she have to loose by joining him? POWER If Clinton remains in the U.S. Senate as a Senator from New York she is an immediate power player in a Senate controlled by the Democrats Party. If Obama is elected she is a leader in a new Democratic controlled national government and he will have to learn to live with her. As vice president he would simply so what most other presidents do to their vice presidents – ignore them. She will also be in a great position to say “I told you so†if he fucks up and she would be able to position herself to make another run on the Presidency in 2012. If McCain is elected she is a leader of a Democratic controlled Senate who is on very cordial terms with the new president. Again she would be in a position to say the party fucked up by nominating Obama and she could make another run for the presidency in 2012

Thus as I see it Obama and Clinton both have very little to gain by placing Hillary Rodham Clinton on a Barack Hussein Obama Presidential Ticket and they both have a hell of a lot to loose.

[AdamSmith]

Thus as I see it Obama and Clinton both have very little to gain by placing Hillary Rodham Clinton on a Barack Hussein Obama Presidential Ticket and they both have a hell of a lot to loose.

Knowledgeable analysts have agreed with you. Jimmy Carter for one declared that a Barack/Hillary ticket would be a disaster, because in his view it would sum their negatives but not their positives in terms of voter draw.

I can't wait for Obama to come back from vacation and let us know his decision.

[TotallyOz]

My favorite cartoon for Bill.

[Guest epigonos]

For what it is worth (not much) my guess would be that he will select a middle aged, colorless, nonthreatening white man. If not Evan Bayh from Indiana then somebody very much like him. He really can't afford to have a major star on the ticket, if he did that person would detract from him and that would be intolerable. Obama MUST be the one and only star on the ticket. Additionally I can't see the party or the Obama people selecting a woman. They are taking a major chance putting an African American man at the head of the ticket and I just can't see these people compounding their problems by adding a woman to the ticket as well.

[Guest Conway]

For what it is worth (not much) my guess would be that he will select a middle aged, colorless, nonthreatening white man. If not Evan Bayh from Indiana then somebody very much like him. He really can't afford to have a major star on the ticket, if he did that person would detract from him and that would be intolerable. Obama MUST be the one and only star on the ticket. Additionally I can't see the party or the Obama people selecting a woman. They are taking a major chance putting an African American man at the head of the ticket and I just can't see these people compounding their problems by adding a woman to the ticket as well.

I think that is a perceptive analysis. This election, much like the 2004 election, may well come down to how each candidate draws in the smaller cities of 20,00 to 50,000 or less in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. Obama has a base among liberals and in large urban areas that will be to his advantage. McCain has a base among law and order type conservatives and in small towns and rural areas where the race issue still lives. In that regard, Obama needs a lilly white type as his veep who can theses soften swing voter concerns about the relatively liberal approach of his agenda.

Small town middle America fears Hillary Clinton the same way that they feared John Kerry.

I think Obama may end up picking a white, moderate southern or midwestern Democratic Governor, probably someone without any experience in Washington. In the meantime, he will keep mollifying his message toward the center as the election approaches.

[Guest JamesWilson]

I think Obama may end up picking a white, moderate southern or midwestern Democratic Governor, probably someone without any experience in Washington. In the meantime, he will keep mollifying his message toward the center as the election approaches.

Sara Robinson, one of my favourite online pundits, has a very interesting article that talks about the socio-geographic dynamics that underlie the US population. If her analysis is correct, it may have interesting ramifications for who Obama should pick as VP, as well as how Obama should campaign leading up to November

http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/200808...dont-shoot-back

[BiBottomBoy]

Hillary as VP choice makes sense to me. Obama is running way to close to McCain in the polls given that McCain's party is led by the least popular president since Herbert Hoover.

The main problem is that Obama can't seem to "seal the deal." Even among white working class democrats he remains unpopular - imagine how he'll do with white independents.

The thing is that Hillary has proven popular - and trusted - by working middle class white people in key Electoral College states like Pennsylvania and Ohio - which the Dems need to close this thing.

Plus, there are a lot of people (mostly women, but some men) who are still bitter about Hillary losing and the way the Obama Zombies treated her during the primaries. Picking her as the VP will help close that gap.

If Obama picks some no name white Senator or Govenor it's a yawn. If he picks Hillary he's got the news cycle for a week, he picks up a bunch of working class white votes and he brings all the Hillary supporters back to the table.

Sure, some people hate Hillary, but those people are going to vote for McCain or whatever loser independent (Nadar? Bloomberg? Ron Paul?) decides to run as a spoiler.

I'd also note that the Clinton's have a long history of support for gay rights - where Obama remains very, very untested on that subject.

If I was in Vegas I'd put even money on an Obama/Hillary ticket.

[TotallyOz]

If I was in Vegas I'd put even money on an Obama/Hillary ticket.

I don't think I'd be putting any money on it as I don't think Obama has the balls enough to do it. I think he is intimidated by her and Bill. And, I don't think I need a President that is so easily intimidated. Too bad Kucinich didn't go any further than he did. He is the only one that made perfect sense to me (except the alien comment).

[BiBottomBoy]

I don't think I'd be putting any money on it as I don't think Obama has the balls enough to do it. I think he is intimidated by her and Bill. And, I don't think I need a President that is so easily intimidated. Too bad Kucinich didn't go any further than he did. He is the only one that made perfect sense to me (except the alien comment).

I have always sort of considered Obama to be basically a pussy. Plus he supporters are like robots or zombies in some strange haze after drinking the cool aide.

I can't wait until they figure out that he's not really some transporative liberal figure, but actually an inexperienced centrist whose only real desire for change is to put his ass in the White House.

That said, the party might push him to put her on the ticket - and if I was a party elder looking at the current polls that's exactly what I'd do.

I would have loved to see Hillary heading up the ticket - instead of a one term senator from the sewer that is the Chicago Democratic machine.

At least we didn't end up with Edwards as the nominee - since he was dumb enough to fuck a girl who even Jay McInerny found "appalling" and that Brett Easton Ellis once described as the "type of girl who will blow you if you have an AmEx card."

[Guest Conway]

I picked this little tidbit up off of Drudge yesterday. If Obama made this choice, i would really have to question both his credibility and good judgment.

|I'll likely stay home on election day. If Obama nominates |kerry, you can be sure that it will motivate me and other conservative types to get to the polls just to make sure that this dope isn't one heartbeat away from the Presidency.

Kerry?

[TampaYankee]

My favorite cartoon for Bill.

I don't have much to say about Bush I other than I liked him generally and he was a great War President IMO.

As for Regan's deficit, the best spent money in history IMO and helped by Tip O'Neil. Spent the USSR into oblivion.

While Clinton deserves his share of the credit for a surplus, he had strong backing from a fresh influx of young conservative Republicans who, after wandering in the desert for 40 years, made a Contract with America that promised a cut in spending. They followed through, though not always in ways to my liking. Just goes to show you how feeding at the public trough long enough corrupts everyone.

[TampaYankee]

If I was in Vegas I'd put even money on an Obama/Hillary ticket.

Ain't gonna happen. If I was in Vegas with you I'd be happy to take your money.

It ain't gonna be Kerry. Who is drinking the kool aide? What a great idea: Let's put last times looser on the ticket for that extra special kick that only a VP candidate can inject. Exactly what every campaign needs -- a shit load of balast.

Everything I have seen indicates that the Obama campaign has been the best run operation, not perfect, but best run by far compared to anyone else of eithe party. That assessment seem to be shared generally by pundits of both sides.

Does anyone really expect them to make a faux pas of this magnitude?

[BiBottomBoy]

Ain't gonna happen. If I was in Vegas with you I'd be happy to take your money.

Well, shit has changed since I made that comment the other day. Now Hillary, who still hasn't given up her delegates, is going to be put into nomination at the convention - which means that one big scandal between now and then could push Obama himself off the ticket - particularly since a lot of head honcho democrats think he's been running a lousy campaign against McCain.

If the Hillary people can find some evidence of him doing coke long after college, or a baby he's paying for maybe he won't get the nomination at all.

He's still presumptive and his real delegate lead isn't strong enough to survive a real convention fight if some shit comes out at him.

I mean, honestly, he should be running a lot better than even against McCain and that trip to Europe was a disaster for him politically.

[TampaYankee]

Well, shit has changed since I made that comment the other day. Now Hillary, who still hasn't given up her delegates, is going to be put into nomination at the convention - which means that one big scandal between now and then could push Obama himself off the ticket - particularly since a lot of head honcho democrats think he's been running a lousy campaign against McCain.

Interesting. It has been reported more than a few times that head honcho repubs think McCain is running a lousy campaign against Obama. I guess there really is symmetry in the universe.

If the Hillary people can find some evidence of him doing coke long after college, or a baby he's paying for maybe he won't get the nomination at all.

He's still presumptive and his real delegate lead isn't strong enough to survive a real convention fight if some shit comes out at him.

I see the Dream Goes On...

They only way to stop Obama now is to catch him in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy. PUMA is probably working on that one.

[BiBottomBoy]

Interesting. It has been reported more than a few times that head honcho repubs think McCain is running a lousy campaign against Obama. I guess there really is symmetry in the universe.

I see the Dream Goes On...

They only way to stop Obama now is to catch him in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy. PUMA is probably working on that one.

I wouldn't put either past Obama at this point. His arrogance knows no bounds.

Most dudes wait until they are elected before they go overseas and talk to Presidents like they are one of their own.

His cult of personality is a bubble that is just waiting to burst.

[caeron]

I wouldn't put either past Obama at this point. His arrogance knows no bounds.

Most dudes wait until they are elected before they go overseas and talk to Presidents like they are one of their own.

His cult of personality is a bubble that is just waiting to burst.

Like this?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...in-Mexico_N.htm

"McCain also met with President Felipe Calderón and visited a new center where Mexico is training federal agents to fight drug smugglers and terrorists."

All candidates do this. Don't let the spin machine fool you.

[BiBottomBoy]

Like this?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...in-Mexico_N.htm

"McCain also met with President Felipe Calderón and visited a new center where Mexico is training federal agents to fight drug smugglers and terrorists."

All candidates do this. Don't let the spin machine fool you.

Going to Mexico is one thing. Going on a tour to meet our NATO allies is another. Particularly if you tell people like Sarkozy that you'll see them again in February.

It's untoward arrogance - and a B.S. move to try to play like he's JFK.

The irony of course is that he is like JFK - and people THNK this is good thing. But yeah:

1. Too young.

2. Cult of personality.

3. Loved by young morons, hated by the actual establishment.

4. No clue about foreign policy.

Let us not forget how the JFK thing played out. He fucked up the Bay of Pigs, almost started World War III, did start Vietnam and got himself killed, all the while fucking anything that moved and probably arranging for the death of Marilyn Monroe.

That's exactly the guy I'd want to emulate.

[TampaYankee]

Don't let the spin machine fool you.

It's all part of the Human Condition. Once we set our position we sort the facts to fit that vision. Only after the facts become embarassingly contrary to our position do we realign that position or wish a pox on the whole scene. Just when that happens depends on the individual.

[BiBottomBoy]

You mean like when the Obama zombies eventually realize that he's an inexperienced centrist democrat from a corrupt political machine and wasn't annointed by god to lead us to the liberal promisedland?

It's all part of the Human Condition. Once we set our position we sort the facts to fit that vision. Only after the facts become embarassingly contrary to our position do we realign that position or wish a pox on the whole scene. Just when that happens depends on the individual.

[AdamSmith]

I have always sort of considered Obama to be basically a pussy.

Same here, start of the campaign. But then came some reports to remind that, instead, he might actually be a more-than-competent practitioner of sharp-elbowed Cook County politics. Slick if not actually sleazy tactics of getting an opponent decertified and thus off the ballot even before the election, etc.

Followed by his skilled, shrewd, decisive management of his primary campaign. In stark contrast to Herself (originally my rabid preference).

[TampaYankee]

You mean like when the Obama zombies eventually realize that he's an inexperienced centrist democrat from a corrupt political machine and wasn't annointed by god to lead us to the liberal promisedland?

The rap put on him by the repubs, pushed by much of the press, is that he is an extreme leftist. The rap put on Hillary by the die hard lefty demos is that she is a centrist or worse. What one sees depends on where one stands when looking at it.