Indiana and North Carolina

[TotallyOz]

Well, I do think that the day has finally come that will set the course for what will happen in the coming months for who will be the next nominee. If Hillary wins both states, I think it will be a lock for her and if Obama wins both, I think there is no way Clinton can say she deserves the nomination. If polls are right, the most likely scenario is that it will be a split decision with Indiana going to Hillary and NC going to Barrack. I am just hoping for a miracle and both contests are won by the same person. Odds are not good. But, I love Vegas and spent a bit of time playing poker in LA last weekend and won 94.00. I am on a winning streak (unless you count the Craig's List encounters) and I am predicting that Hillary will win both tonight. Hope is a good thing.

[JKane]

Sounds like you did better at poker than I did recently, but I have to disagree with you 100%--except that I also pray both races are won by one person, for the good of the party and country.

But IF Hillary were to win both it'd just draw out the agony even longer. It would in no way be a lock for her, she would still be behind in pledged delegates and in the popular vote (to hell with Florida and Michigan--as Hillary agreed back *before* she needed them to claim even a narrow shot at victory--nine words: Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan).

If the predicted split occurs expect a wave of undeclared superdelegets to go to Obama (he picked up 4 yesterday, she got none) and pressure to build for her to sit down, it will be mathematically impossible for her to win in any way the public could consider democratic.

She would have to overturn the pledged delegates and popular vote by somehow convincing a huge percentage of superdelegates that she won't be as crappy a candidate and president as she's been so far. Who isn't tired of the crap she's been pulling? There's a new metric for victory twice a week--even directly contradicting last week's. There's a new gimmick (gas tax BS--of course it's BS, who thinks Bush wouldn't VETO a windfall profits tax on oil companies???) or gotcha every two weeks. Siding with McCain more than her party, and don't forget gleefully accepting the support of Rush Limbaugh and Richard Mellen Scathe--who are CLEARLY CONVINCED SHE'D BE EASIER TO DEFEAT THAN OBAMA.

If Obama wins both and anything comes out of her mouth other than "I'm suspending my campaign" I'm going to need a new TV, because this one's doomed.

[TotallyOz]

Watching the results online is very interesting. NC was called the instant the polls closed. Indiana is still not called as I write this. Looks like things continue as is for bit.

[JKane]

Not what I got watching on TV. On MSNBC one of her supporters, Harold Ford was pleading for her to be gifted the VP position and three different anchors called it the end of her campaign.

Even if some idiot counted Florida and Michigan (grr) she is now behind 200k+ in the popular vote and 100 pledged delegates. She would have to win percentages on the order of 80-90% in the (very few) remaining races to overcome the reality--that she's lost.

Obama is the presumptive nominee. Tomorrow there'll be confirmation of that by superdelegates and by the fact she's canceled a bunch of stuff (and begged for money to close out her books in the speech tonight).

She is (or had better be) done taking potshots at Obama, but since demographically she is likely to win West Virginia (28 total delegates, the kind of state her campaign dismisses out of hand...) the official concession is most likely May 20th--as he wins Oregon.

[Guest StuCotts]

I have good feelings for both hopefuls and will vote for whichever is chosen to be the candidate. Obama will probably make it, mostly on the basis of his rhetoric, but also on the basis of the following fact: Americans as a population don't like either blacks or women running for office. When obliged to make a choice they dislike women more than blacks.

The next consideration will be electability. The Rep character assassination machine will shift into high gear when it can concentrate on Obama alone. As an example, there is an active movement to declare Obama the Antichrist, and to tie that to his being a Muslim:

http://www.barackobamaantichrist.blogspot.com

This distortion of the Bible and the truth is promoted by people who are as stupid as they are malicious and is aimed at people who are as malicious as they are stupid, but that's not keeping it from making progress. I've had two unsolicited e-mails on the subject in the past few days.

I think Obama will wilt under the onslaught of sheer viciousness and lying, which will be worse than anything he has ever experienced. Hillary wouldn't.

There will be times during the election campaigns when those who now wail at the treatment Obama has had from the Clintons will look back on the primary battle as a golden period of sweetness and light.

[JKane]

This distortion of the Bible and the truth is promoted by people who are as stupid as they are malicious and is aimed at people who are as malicious as they are stupid, but that's not keeping it from making progress. I've had two unsolicited e-mails on the subject in the past few days.

I think Obama will wilt under the onslaught of sheer viciousness and lying, which will be worse than anything he has ever experienced. Hillary wouldn't.

There will be times during the election campaigns when those who now wail at the treatment Obama has had from the Clintons will look back on the primary battle as a golden period of sweetness and light.

I agree that the republican slime machine is gearing up, but it's up to us whether it works or not. First of all, we've already been through a government shut down by it (Bill Clinton's, and I think they could've easily done that again with Hillary) and part of its success may have been that he managed to give them fodder at each turn.

The Democratic nominees did a preemptive strike against the power of that machine by staying off Fox, driving home the message that they were not a legitimate news organization. Of course, say anything election-time Hillary then did one of many 180s: Bill went on the fucking RUSH LIMBAUGH SHOW, she jumped on Fox's lap and don't get me started on Mellen Scathe (the republican slime machine personified). But once it's back to Obama I think it might still be contained. The right-wing media will be saying nasty things about him, but only the right-wing base will be listening. Guess what: they were voting Republican anyway.

We just need to keep the stupidity from spreading. Any mass email you get, check Snopes.com or factcheck.org and send a reply to all--address the lies. Send that same list stuff on hopeful developments on our side and point out the McCain gaffes that aren't getting much coverage.

Hell, just point out the blatant hypocrisy of the right, such as all the times they try to have it both ways, i.e. how dare he be a good Christian for 20 years in a church where somebody said something objectionable *and* he's a muslim? How's that?

I really believe that the combination of McCain running to complete Bush's (20% approval rating) work and Obama's appeal to new voters and minorities we can have a *major* victory in November, a mandate and a real majority to fix what Bush managed to do with neither. But only if we DON'T make the same mistakes as our last two campaigns: cowering in the corner pleading "not in the face, not in the face".

[Guest eastburbguy]

I have good feelings for both hopefuls and will vote for whichever is chosen to be the candidate. Obama will probably make it, mostly on the basis of his rhetoric, but also on the basis of the following fact: Americans as a population don't like either blacks or women running for office. When obliged to make a choice they dislike women more than blacks.

The next consideration will be electability. The Rep character assassination machine will shift into high gear when it can concentrate on Obama alone. As an example, there is an active movement to declare Obama the Antichrist, and to tie that to his being a Muslim:

http://www.barackobamaantichrist.blogspot.com

This distortion of the Bible and the truth is promoted by people who are as stupid as they are malicious and is aimed at people who are as malicious as they are stupid, but that's not keeping it from making progress. I've had two unsolicited e-mails on the subject in the past few days.

I think Obama will wilt under the onslaught of sheer viciousness and lying, which will be worse than anything he has ever experienced. Hillary wouldn't.

There will be times during the election campaigns when those who now wail at the treatment Obama has had from the Clintons will look back on the primary battle as a golden period of sweetness and light.

< I think Obama will wilt under the onslaught of sheer viciousness and lying

Stu, with all due respect, I think you do Obama a disservice when you imply that Hillary has faced and survived more adversities than Obama has. IMHO, Obama deals with the political adversity far differently than Hillary does. Her MO is to fight harder and better than the "oppo" does at its own game. His MO is to, ironically, "triangulate" and use the adversity to make his case that things have to change in government and politics, and he's the agent of that change.

A relatively minor scuffle was had over the gas tax holiday "idea" which I think was a good example. He won the argument by turning it to his advantage.

[Guest Conway]

But, wasn't it the issue of Bill Clinton's tendency to triangulate politically which turned the hard core left of the Democratic party against him and Hillary?

I find it curious that triangulation is being mentioned as a positive for Obama now when it was such a negative when used against the Clintons.

[JKane]

I haven't seen SNL this dead-on in so many years!

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/pol...html?mea=250052

[Guest StuCotts]

I haven't seen SNL this dead-on in so many years!

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/pol...html?mea=250052

I wish you endless peals of silvery laughter at the expense of Hillary's aggressiveness, and endlessly warmed heart cockles in contemplation of Obama's nobility of purpose, acuity of vision and dignity of bearing. These qualities do him credit, but won't count for much to the electorate that voted Bush in twice. They will be a fond memory after his ass has been stomped by the thuggish Reps beyond the help of all the balm in Gilead.

One clarification: I don't want to be right, but fear that I am.

[JKane]

For me it's not Hillary's assumption that the nomination is hers, that she just has to wait for us to finally give in. My problem with Hillary is that we've already experienced what her leadership gains us--not a g-d damned thing.

The Clinton's Democratic Leadership Council was responsible for the stand-for-nothing centrism that was the hallmark of Bill's terms AND the "please, not in the face, not in the face!" campaigns of the last two of our nominees.

THAT is why I supported anyone but her and am overjoyed that Obama now has consensus.

[Guest StuCotts]

For me it's not Hillary's assumption that the nomination is hers, that she just has to wait for us to finally give in. My problem with Hillary is that we've already experienced what her leadership gains us--not a g-d damned thing.

The Clinton's Democratic Leadership Council was responsible for the stand-for-nothing centrism that was the hallmark of Bill's terms AND the "please, not in the face, not in the face!" campaigns of the last two of our nominees.

THAT is why I supported anyone but her and am overjoyed that Obama now has consensus.

I'm talking about electability. You're talking about your personal animosity toward the Clintons. As good as it feels to vent, and as good as our alternating monologues may sound, they don't add up to a dialogue. We must try again soon.

[AdamSmith]

overjoyed that Obama now has consensus

I'm talking about electability. You're talking about your personal animosity toward the Clintons. As good as it feels to vent, and as good as our alternating monologues may sound, they don't add up to a dialogue. We must try again soon.

There it is. As odious as many find the Clintons, some with good enough reason (disclosure & disclaimer: I myself have been rabidly for Hillary; although I will support Obama without reserve if the inevitable happens), none of the recoil I've seen from Hillary & Bill's cold, hard calculus thus far has been based on their electoral math, but only on the admitted fact that theirs is not a PC or sensitive conclusion. Even if one accepts that Obama's persona, vision, etc. would be preferable to all the effects of another Clinton regime (I don't), the question of electability remains. Especially given the recent sober analyses pointing out that Obama's delegate lead over Clinton is due to his organization's superior organizing in caucus states, and pointing out how much of a stretch it will be for his organization to transform this caucus-based lead into victory in the very different electoral mechanics of the general election.

[AdamSmith]

Then again...

Clinton Questions Obama's Ability To Greet World Leaders

CHARLESTON, WV—Hillary Clinton once again attacked Barack Obama on the issue of experience Tuesday, this time questioning the Illinois senator's ability to effectively smile, make appropriate eye contact, and offer sufficiently delicious finger foods when welcoming visiting world leaders. "My opponent has never greeted foreign dignitaries such as the Japanese Minister of Forestry and Fisheries, as I had the opportunity to do when I was first lady," Clinton said, adding that she has an extensive background in both double-clasped hand shakes and idle small talk with political luminaries from several nations. "Do the American people really want a president who doesn't know when it's appropriate to gesture toward a chair, indicating where a head of state should be seated?" At a previous speech in Indianapolis, Clinton had challenged Obama's ability to create a health-care reform initiative that would ultimately fail and hand Congress over to the Republicans in an electoral landslide, as she did in 1993.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news_brief...uestions_obamas