Obama wins South Carolina

[TotallyOz]

Obama won a very decisive victory last night over Clinton and Edwards. Do you think this is the beginning of a major change for the election? Does he have what it takes to pull off more wins on Feb. 5th?

I think the Clintons have the infrastructure for the Feb 5th debate but I wonder who big a victory this was for Obama and how that can carry over into the other elections. I wonder if the Democratic side will go down to the wire at the Convention.

For the Republicans, I wonder the same.

I also think the media is controlling this election. Wrong?

[caeron]

Obama won a very decisive victory last night over Clinton and Edwards. Do you think this is the beginning of a major change for the election? Does he have what it takes to pull off more wins on Feb. 5th?

I think the Clintons have the infrastructure for the Feb 5th debate but I wonder who big a victory this was for Obama and how that can carry over into the other elections. I wonder if the Democratic side will go down to the wire at the Convention.

For the Republicans, I wonder the same.

I also think the media is controlling this election. Wrong?

It's an interesting primary cycle, things more of a horse race than in years past it seems to me.

I think South Carolina says that Obama has the black vote, I'm not enough of an analyst to say what that means to delegate count. But I'd imagine what held in south carolina is going to carry through for the black vote (unless something dramatic changes).

Interestingly, I think all the front runners have big flaws that will make for a messy general election.

Obama - Washington lightweight. Just 3 years as a senator.

Hillary - "bitch" carries a lot of negatives

McCain - America and he disagree on the Iraq war a lot

Romney - flip-flopping mormon. (while this crowd might find that hot, I don't think the general public will).

I think Rudy is DOA, and I think Huckabee is too fringe to be credible. Edwards may play spoiler at the convention, but I think it's more likely that he will flame out as his lack of viability becomes more apparent to voters.

How do the rest of you handicap it?

[KYTOP]

The big thing about Obama's SC win was that it was a margin of 2 to 1 over Hillary. Not just a win but a landslide victory. Also if not for Hillary's tear job in New Hampshire, she would have lost there. If she does not get Bill to keep his trap shut and she not be so bitchy, she just might find herself to have lost what many thought was a sure thing.

Also, Carolyn Kennedy has endorsed Obama today in the New York Times, somewhat comparing him to her father. This may jusy bring in a few older Democrtas that still talk of Camelot.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/...amp;oref=slogin

I love that McCain is winning and actually trying to take the Repuplican Party back from the Extreme Conversative Religious Right. Conversative talk radio is howling against him but he seems to be able to push on.

I think there is a good chance that no one, on either side, will have enough votes for the nomination come Convention time. That I think would be a good thing if finally ALL states get to have a say in the Primary process.

With the Democrat Super Delegates uncommitted and controled by the Democratic Party machine, I think that might tip the scales to Hillary at a brokered Convention.

[caeron]

But half of the voters were black, and Obama took those voters by a 4 to 1 margin. And its Edwards home state. Seems like it was more about the black vote than anything else. How significant is the black vote nationally, I wonder?

[KYTOP]

But half of the voters were black, and Obama took those voters by a 4 to 1 margin. And its Edwards home state. Seems like it was more about the black vote than anything else. How significant is the black vote nationally, I wonder?

Within the Democratic party HUGE, they rarely vote Republican. If they vote as a block they can determine this primary race. But Note that Obama got as many White MALE votes as did Hillary. So the White female voters in the Democratic party are her base.

[Guest epigonos]

One thing to keep in mind about the Democratic Covention is the Super Delegates. They consist mostly of elected officials and some party higher ups. I believe that they actually make up 20% of the convention delegates and they are not tied in any way by the primary election results. Most of these delegates owe Bill Clinton big time. It could just happen that if Obama and Hilary are close in the primary delegate count these Super Delegates will throw it to her. That could happen even if he is slightly ahead in the regluar delegate count. If it does happen there are going to be a lot of disillusioned young people and African Americans who might just stay home on election day.

What will also be interesting to see is just how much influence the endorsement of Obama by Caroline Kennedy might have. Supposedly Teddy Kennedy is going to announce for Obama tomorrow. Damn this is turning out to be fun!!!!!

[Guest SouthernMan]

Given all the favors due the Clintons and the usual political machine bs that goes with American presidential elections, I'm placing all of my bets that Hillary will be the candidate for the Democratic party.

I'm a die hard Democrat, who has only voted once for a Republican on any level (local, state, national), and that was Richard Nixon waaay back in 1972 when I was old enough to vote for the first time (wtf, I still like Nixon and I think that, in my lifetime, he was the best president ever, and he was imo, unjustly ousted).

If Hillary is the Democratic party candidate, then, I'll have to vote for whoever the Republican party candidate is, or for some out of left field independent. Why? I just don't like her, her lies, her duplicity, her self-entitlement. Her main agenda, as First Lady, during Bill's first tenure, was national health care, and what did she do? UH? She shut her office door and totally ignored the experts who could help her draft a proposal that could pass through Congress.

TIME for a change! No more Bush! No more Clinton! ENOUGH already! Twenty years is long enough, and I hope that the voters will not make it another four!

I, personally would love to see John Edwards, as the next president. He reminds me so much of Jimmy Carter (my all time favorite president!, who, imo, is the most caring , truthful, honest man to hold the presidency in my lifetime). Unlike, Jimmy, he does have SOME political connections in Congress, so he may not have to suffer the animosity of being an outsider like Jimmy did.

My favorite sound bite? Barack preaching a change, just like John Kennedy did! (I guess that is why Caroline Kennedy endorsed him?). A Democratic ticket that I will DEFINITELY vote for, despite not my first choice, Obama/Edwards, for president/vice president.

[caeron]

Those were the negatives I was talking about, when you'd vote for any other candidate.

Personally, one of the reasons I prefer Hillary, though I'll vote for Obama if he wins the nomination, is the failed health care plan. I don't have the same reaction to her that lots do though. I just see a strong successful woman.

I want a president who has learned the hard way how to get things done in Washington. I fear Obama is too green at a time when learning on the job isn't a great idea. I'd rather vote for him in 8 years.

Edwards just seems creepy to me.

Does anybody else think endorsements matter much? I can't think of any time when somebody else's recommendation of a candidate swayed me. Most of the folks I know I would think of the same way. Maybe I just hang around different crowds.