CND/US dollar exchance

[marcanthony]

As of 2 PM Eastern time, the CND $ is worth more than the US $.

$1 US = $0.999 CND

I know that in all my Montreal life, this has never happened before. Anyone know if it's ever happened?

Anyone wanting to get out of the very erratic and jittery stock market faces the prospect of turning his or her profit into rapidly diminishing American Greenbacks.

On the bright side, at least now there will be motivation for foreign investors to spend money in America. So though we may not own large chunks of our country anymore, at least our trade deficit might improve.

Holy shit... did I just say that??? That's like having an empty glass and saying...."No, it's not empty. It's 1% full."

[seaboy4hire]

I'm not all that bright with economics and what not but I want to try to remain optimistic and say that I have a feeling within 2-3 years or so the dollar will go back on the ups. I think we all know that it'll take a change at a certain address for this to happen. Just hold tight it'll be ok.

Hugs,

Greg

[TampaYankee]

I doubt that the US$ will regain its former lustre without the European and Asian economies totally tanking. That includes serious inflation over there. Probably some serious interest rates over here. Maybe more. Now that we all are joined at the hip (and dependent on China for our clothes, toys and tainted foods) that will also hurt us as their US purchases diminish. Up goes our trade deficit. At least we will still get all the lead we need.... and more.

The above based on the fact that other currencies will be abandoned only when there is strong uncertainty in the underlying economies or the US $ will gain as a financial instrument when it becomes a money making vehicle i.e interest rates rise. It won't happen based on US$ scarcity as we print money day and night to give to the Chinese and to support our Foreign Intrigues.

It seems that even though the Canadian $ is at parity, Canadians are still paying considerably more than the US for the same basket of goods. Seems the Canadian prices are set a year ahead and thus changes in buying power take that long to pass down... based on an online article read this AM that I cannot locate at present. I dont understand why their economy seems so rigid with respect to changing conditions. However, there is a lot I dont understand about the Canadians. Not a slam as I love the people and the country.

The real question remains: How far will the UD$ drop. Will we drag the Canadian $ down with us? A new administration can improve things at the margin without too serious pain. Serious improvment seems to require serious economic dislocations or many years to climb out of the present hole. I hope I am wrong.

The above is just an opinion. I am unburdened with any economic training.

[seaboy4hire]

As far as China goes if they continue to offer up products that are not safe companies (both US and others) will have no choice but to either A ) put a large amount of pressure on the manufactures to step up and make safer products or B ) move their ops to other countries that can offer safe products. Cheaper does not always make it better.

Hugs,

Greg

[AdamSmith]

As far as China goes if they continue to offer up products that are not safe companies (both US and others) will have no choice but to either A ) put a large amount of pressure on the manufactures to step up and make safer products or B ) move their ops to other countries that can offer safe products.

Interesting article this morning on how the West is beginning to realize it had better stop condescending to China as of old...

Understanding Mattel’s Mea Culpa

Quick to blame its Chinese suppliers for a massive recall, the toy giant now apologizes for its own mistakes. Why Mattel—and other major American companies—must save face with China.

When Mattel recalled lead-tainted toys in August, and earlier this month, the company was quick to blame its suppliers in China. It was as if Mattel weren’t responsible for the quality of products sold under its name.

But today the toy giant changed its tune. An executive offered a public apology to China and Chinese suppliers. “Our reputation has been damaged lately by these recalls,†Thomas A. Debrowski, Mattel’s executive vice president for worldwide operations, told a Chinese consumer-products safety official. “And Mattel takes full responsibility for these recalls and apologizes personally to you, the Chinese people, and all of our customers who received the toys.â€

This kowtow isn’t a sudden outbreak of good manners or even responsibility at a Fortune 500 company. Rather, it’s a sign of how the balance of power has shifted between massive American consumer-products companies and their rapidly growing China-based suppliers. ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20910045/site/newsweek/

[AdamSmith]

The real question remains: How far will the UD$ drop. Will we drag the Canadian $ down with us? A new administration can improve things at the margin without too serious pain. Serious improvment seems to require serious economic dislocations or many years to climb out of the present hole. I hope I am wrong.

Insightful post.

Re your point above, one hopeful note in Greenspan's memoir is the credit he gives Clinton for the effects of what he calls Clinton's "consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth." (Clinton 42, of course. Could a Clinton 44 pull off anything similar, given macro conditions she would inherit, and her own proclivities?)

Back to the China point. I heard an American economist who writes a newsletter from Shanghai observe that we've been lulled by China's economic weakness over the past three centuries or so. But, in the long view, that was a minor aberration -- for the couple of millennia before, China was a dominant global trading power.

[Guest PWIT]

Holy shit... did I just say that??? That's like having an empty glass and saying...."No, it's not empty. It's 1% full."

Don't worry Marc, there are lots of pros & cons and is easy to make an an argument either way. One of the pros is that it is very good for the remaining manufactoring sector of US industries and their ability to compete and sale merchandise. There has been much concern that as the US moves more and more into sevices and more manufactoring leaves the shores, it puts the nations security at risk (via dependency on foreign nations etc.). There are many other pro arguments, but will leave that to the experts.

As far as trade deficit, until the US starts producing most of the energy it consumes, it will be hard to make a dent in the trade deficit.

[eeyore]

Thought this might be of interest...

From page one of today’s Wall Street Journal:

"Canada Is Giddy

About the Loonie

And Twitting U.S.

Currency Parity Is a Point

Of Pride, but Americans

Won't Like the Prices

By DOUGLAS BELKIN and JOANNA SLATER

September 22, 2007"

“With the Canadian dollar surging against the U.S. greenback, Robert Katzman is dealing with situations they don't teach in Economics 101.

The owner of five strip clubs in Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, says American dancers are heading to Canada to earn the strengthened Canadian currency, and Canadian customers are heading to Detroit because their dollars go further there. He's fighting back by advertising more in the U.S. and offering free limo service to get Detroit men to visit his Windsor clubs.â€

You can read the full article at:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1190414811...=hpp_us_pageone

[TampaYankee]

One of the pros is that it is very good for the remaining manufactoring sector of US industries and their ability to compete and sale merchandise. There has been much concern that as the US moves more and more into sevices and more manufactoring leaves the shores, it puts the nations security at risk (via dependency on foreign nations etc.). ...

That is a silver lining. We have gone from a country of self sufficiency to one depending on imports... all in a generation. Everything from our steel to our computers are manufactured in Asia. Anything that makes 'American Made' more competitive helps restore our self-sufficiency.

However, part of that equation requries that the Chinese Yuan be allowed to float in the money markets. As long a China pegs its value to the US$ they will guarantee our dependence on them. Wall Street is all about the bottom line.

Why does China chase after so many US$ that continue to decline in value? One reason is that it fuels their economy and modernizes their manufacturing base... for now as they continue to grow out of their economic backwardness. It will be interesting to see what they do with their US$ when their economy slows down.

That brings up the second reason. No matter how low the US$ goes it is still great for one thing... buying America. The have started acquiring corporations and land. They are a major player in the US Mortgage Market too. What else can they do with so much US paper on their hands? Keep in mind that these purchases are thru Chinese gov't dummy corporations, not individual moguls driven simply by the acquisition of wealth. That raises the ugly security issues spectre again.

As far as trade deficit, until the US starts producing most of the energy it consumes, it will be hard to make a dent in the trade deficit.

Very good point. We seem incapable of dealing with this proactively.

[Guest StuCotts]

As of 2 PM Eastern time, the CND $ is worth more than the US $.

$1 US = $0.999 CND

I know that in all my Montreal life, this has never happened before. Anyone know if it's ever happened?

Anyone wanting to get out of the very erratic and jittery stock market faces the prospect of turning his or her profit into rapidly diminishing American Greenbacks.

On the bright side, at least now there will be motivation for foreign investors to spend money in America. So though we may not own large chunks of our country anymore, at least our trade deficit might improve.

Holy shit... did I just say that??? That's like having an empty glass and saying...."No, it's not empty. It's 1% full."

To answer your question, it happened several times in the course of the 70's. During some brief periods the value of the US$ was actually below the C$'s. As I recall, the C$ didn't suffer any bad consequences during these periods. Only an economist could confirm that.

Bad news for American travelers to Europe: 1 euro costs a dismaying US$1.41 as of today, and those who know say the dollar's plunge is far from over. I don't think the C$ is any worse off against the euro because of it. You tell us.

Related good news for non-travelers to Europe: NY's tourism-related businesses are cleaning up because the city is crammed to overflowing with euro-spendthrifts. The same is must be true of every tourist destination in the US and probably Canada. All fattening of coffers is beneficial.

[Guest mvan]

"Related good news for non-travelers to Europe: NY's tourism-related businesses are cleaning up because the city is crammed to overflowing with euro-spendthrifts. The same is must be true of every tourist destination in the US and probably Canada. All fattening of coffers is beneficial."

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Sorry to disagree. With foreign tourists spending their inflatted money in America fills our hotels and other tourists venues nearly to capacity. This drives prices for those items higher. It also creates over crowding and makes those tourist places unavailable for many Americans due to unavailability and increased prices.

Just look at the price of hotels in New York and other tourist cities. This year, hotels (on average) have increased in prices nearly double from what they were last year. That is not a pretty picture.

[Guest StuCotts]

"Related good news for non-travelers to Europe: NY's tourism-related businesses are cleaning up because the city is crammed to overflowing with euro-spendthrifts. The same is must be true of every tourist destination in the US and probably Canada. All fattening of coffers is beneficial."

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Sorry to disagree. With foreign tourists spending their inflatted money in America fills our hotels and other tourists venues nearly to capacity. This drives prices for those items higher. It also creates over crowding and makes those tourist places unavailable for many Americans due to unavailability and increased prices.

Just look at the price of hotels in New York and other tourist cities. This year, hotels (on average) have increased in prices nearly double from what they were last year. That is not a pretty picture.

I'll take your word for it. I don't have first-hand info on present hotel rates. It's a shame for people in your situation, but to walk on the callous side for a moment, the business owners who are having money thrown at them don't really care who is doing the throwing. Neither do those who one way or another benefit from the big spending.

[Guest StuCotts]

It happened again!

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/01/nyregion/01loonie.html?

We hope in all humility that Canadian visitors won't lord it over us too cruelly, but deign to fling a few measly coppers at our destitution.

[Guest JamesWilson]

It happened again!

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/01/nyregion/01loonie.html?

We hope in all humility that Canadian visitors won't lord it over us too cruelly, but deign to fling a few measly coppers at our destitution.

Yes, Stu and others, the high-flying loonie has been getting a lot of attention recently. As someone on the northern side of the border between our two countries, I thought I'd add my CAN$0.02.

1) Not everyone in Canada is happy about the rise in the loonie. While it may help importers and Canadian travellers to the US, there are many other sectors of the economy which are hurting (e.g. tourism, exporting, manufacturing). Keep in mind that the loonie's rapid rise (from US$0.60 to US$1.00+ in a handful of years) has more to do with the weakness in the US economy (due to Iraq, sub-prime, etc.) and the rising price of oil (Canada is the US's largest foreign source of oil, if memory serves) than any inherent relevant changes in between our two economies in the last 5 years. So while the Canadian oilpatch (Alberta and Saskatchewan) may be celebrating, the same is not true with most of the rest of the country.

2) Regarding how long this situation (loonie up, greenback down) may last, Warren Buffet was in Toronto a few days ago and said that he thinks it will last for at least the next 5 years.

CNBC article

Globe and Mail article

Toronto Star article

Financial Post article

3) As for throwing a few coppers the US's way, yes, a number of Canadians have stepped up their visits to the US, especially those cross-border shoppers looking for bargains in the US border communities. As an aside, though, wait-times at border crossings have been reported to be very long, perhaps due to the stepped up (some say misguided) efforts of the US Department of Homeland Security.

4) What are Canadian businesses/governments doing to help US visitors to Canada? There have been a number of reports in the Canadian media in recent years about the decreasing numbers of US visitors, which started with SARS, but escalated since 9/11 and now the increased border hurdles. Canadian businesses that cater to tourists (US and otherwise) have been making noise about this for a number of years, and supposedly have been trying to take steps to reverse the trend. As has, again supposedly, various levels of Canadian government. (I don't know how successful their supposed efforts have been.)

5) What can US visitors to Canada do? My suggestion is to keep in mind two things:

i) US tourists are viewed as important and welcome visitors in Canada, and

ii) given the importance with which US tourists are viewed, there should be deals available for US visitors. A caveat on this one, though... since Canadian businesses are not used to having to deal with a weak US dollar (heck, anyone under the age of 35 wasn't even BORN the last time the dollars were at parity!), it may take some time for these deals to appear.

Bottom line? Canadians know how tough it is to travel in a country where your dollar doesn't go as far as it used to... we've had to deal with it for most of the last 30 years. So there is some empathy for your situation.

My guess is, if you were to ask nicely about a discount, and hide any GOP or NRA membership cards you might be carrying around (Shrub and the NRA are NOT popular up here!), I bet there are a number of energetic lads that would be happy to offer a discount to our friends from the south who are in Canada for a bit of business or R&R! 10% off the top, perhaps? Or off the bottom, if that is your preference!

[TampaYankee]

Yes, Stu and others, the high-flying loonie has been getting a lot of attention recently. As someone on the northern side of the border between our two countries, I thought I'd add my CAN$0.02.

James,

Thanks for sharing the prespective from north of the border. An interesting read about some insights that had escaped this yankee.

I do miss the exchange rate of 2002. Canada used to be the best travel deal around and the boys were the cherry on top. Now with the slide in the $ and the $20 dance routines taking hold in MTL, the draw has lost some lustre. However, the people and places still make for a great destination, if somewhat more expensive.

Disappointing to hear that Mr Buffet expects this turn around to last five years but I supsect he is right.