GOP: McCain, Guiliani, Romney

[Guest eastburbguy]

Having analyzed the Dems' Presidential prospects in another thread, it might be interesting to look at what the Repubs have to offer. Each of the "Top Three" seem to have major problems right now:

McCain no longer rocks in Granite State

By Brett Arends

Boston Herald Business Columnist

Thursday, January 18, 2007 - Updated: 04:20 PM EST

As Mitt, Hillary, Barack and a dozen others jump into the presidential stampede, something interesting is happening in New Hampshire.

For seven years, conventional wisdom has said that the state’s pivotal independent voters would line up behind maverick Sen. John McCain, as they did so famously in the 2000 GOP primary. But new polling data, to be released later this week, will suggest that might no longer be the case.

Manchester, N.H.-based American Research Group finds that McCain’s popularity among New Hampshire’s independent voters has collapsed.

“John McCain is tanking,” says ARG president Dick Bennett. “That’s the big thing [we’re finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number’s way down, to 29 percent now.”

American Research Group, which is New Hampshire’s leading polling company and has been operating in the state since 1976, polled 1,200 likely Granite State voters in the survey.

Bennett says ARG is finding a similar trend in other states polled, including early primary battlegrounds like Iowa and Nevada. “We’re finding this everywhere,” he says.

The main reason isn’t hard to find: His hawkish stance on the Iraq war, which is tying him ever more closely to an unpopular president. “Independent support for McCain is evaporating because they view him as tied to Bush,” says Bennett.

The McCain camp yesterday said the senator, who is pushing for a bigger troop surge in Iraq than the president, will stick by his guns. “He has been and will remain committed to achieving victory in Iraq,” a spokesman said.

New Hampshire is among the states that allow independents to vote in either party’s primary. It was their support that gave McCain his huge primary victory there over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in 2000.

If the senator is losing that base, it opens the GOP race to other challengers. And it weakens his strongest pitch to Republican die-hards - namely that his appeal to independents makes him the most electable candidate in the general election.

“It’s significant that McCain is going down rather than up at this critical juncture in the early maneuvering,” comments Larry Sabato, who chairs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, John McCain may not be secure as the GOP front-runner. But a lot can change.”

Is Rudy Likely to Be a Favorite or a Flop?

By Stuart Rothenberg

The battle lines of the great schism are starting to harden. No, it’s not the division between supporters and opponents of legal abortion, or between Catholicism and Protestantism. It isn’t even the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Today’s deepest division is between those political observers who believe that Rudy Giuliani is a credible contender for the Republican presidential nomination and those who think that his chances are no better than those of California Rep. Duncan Hunter.

{Excerpt}

Does anyone seriously believe that a Democrat who opposes legal abortion could be nominated for president by his or her party?...

And if the Democrats wouldn’t nominate a cultural conservative, why should anyone believe that Republicans would pick a social liberal? It seems to me that you need to suspend all your analytical faculties to believe the GOP will nominate for president a Republican who supports abortion rights, and is pro-gun control and pro-gay rights. It just isn’t going to happen, at least not in my lifetime.

Giuliani’s strong showing in GOP polling reflects his celebrity status and the reputation he earned after the terrorist attacks. But if and when he becomes a candidate, that will change. He will be evaluated on the basis of different things, including his past and current positions and behavior, and he’ll be attacked by critics and opponents. A Giuliani nomination would also generate a conservative third-party candidate in the general election and tear the GOP apart, thereby undercutting Giuliani’s electability argument.

So, the former mayor might make a terrific general election candidate, but I don’t see how he can get there as a Republican.

And Romney’s “FlipFlop” problem and his Mormonism make him look dicey at best:

Romney’s Flip-Flop for the Primaries

So, to improve his chance of winning the primaries, Romney is recasting himself from a moderate to a conservative (on gay marriage and abortion). Thus, he is making himself less attractive to a group that already likes him (moderates) in an effort to become more attractive to a group that thinks he’s a cultist (conservatives). Then, presumably, he will re-recast himself during the general election. Does this pencil out? Will conservatives fall for it?

Associated Press: How does a devout Mormon woo religious activists critical to winning the GOP presidential nomination when many of those same activists are openly hostile to a faith they consider no more than cult?

The domination of early Republican primaries and caucuses by social conservatives — generally defined as churchgoers who oppose abortion rights and gay marriage — may explain why Romney has been aggressively recasting himself as a conservative after presenting himself as a moderate while running for governor in 2002.

His challenge was underscored earlier this month when some conservatives questioned the validity of his credentials after learning of a 1994 letter in which Romney — then a candidate for U.S. Senate — pledged to be more effective in promoting the gay agenda than Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Massachusetts.

In his gubernatorial campaign, Romney also pledged to uphold abortion rights in Massachusetts. Today, he says the landmark Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion is wrong.

“The rhetoric between evangelicals and Mormons has been almost abusive,” said Richard Mouw, president of the Fuller Theological Seminary in California, the largest evangelical seminary in North America.

“I think his Mormonism is going to be a bigger problem with the ‘unchurched’ than the ‘churched,’ ” Land said. “The unchurched are fairly distrustful of and sometimes hostile of the churched, and they look upon Mormons as, sort of, religion on steroids. The churched respect people who take their faith seriously.”

Romney also will angle for support from millions of Americans whose own preachers have criticized past Mormon practices such as polygamy, as well as the Mormons’ refusal to allow black priests until 1978.

“Most Americans are pragmatists. There will be a fraction of evangelical Protestants who will be vociferous in their opposition to Romney, but depending on who the other candidates are, that could be a very small fraction,” said Mark Noll, an evangelical expert who teaches American religious history at Notre Dame.

The possibility of a Mormon president has renewed questions about whether the public in general — and evangelicals in particular — would support a candidate from a faith that the Southern Baptist Convention, the nation’s largest Protestant group, considers a cult.

The Book of Mormon, which church founder Joseph Smith Jr. said he translated from golden plates he discovered through an angel in the 1820s, says that Israelites migrated to the New World and were the ancestors of American Indians. Latter-day Saints also believe that Smith restored authentic Christianity and rewrote parts of the Bible to correct it.

Another Mormon rule that frequently raises eyebrows is the bar on access to their temples by anyone except members of the faith who donate 10 percent of their earnings to the church, who uphold its teachings and who fulfill other duties. Mormons who meet the criteria are given ID cards that they must display to gain admittance.

“There will be some initial apprehension from many conservative Christians who have been taught that Mormonism is a cult,” said the Rev. Joel Hunter, pastor of the Northland Church in Longwood, Florida.

“As people become more educated, they will think more broadly than what the differences are,” Hunter said. “If he stands for what many conservative Christians stand for in terms of pro-life, pro-marriage between one man and one woman, they will become more comfortable.”

Oh well, there's always Newt. }(

[Guest StuCotts]

Impressive insights. My layman's take:

McCain has lost the independents and all those who admired him for the principles he seems to have abandoned, and not earned the trust of the right-wingers who will mistrust him forever for having had those principles.

If Giuliani's positions on social issues don't sink him, having a last name that ends in a vowel will. Being from New York will also be a minus.

There's no war like a religious war. Romney will not be able to swerve or flip-flop fast or often enough to avoid being chopped to bits.

Did you throw in Newt for the humorous effect? The eternity between now and the primaries will see much crazier possibilities than that one.

I look forward to seeing the various Rep factions go at each other like the gingham dog and the calico cat, hopefully with the same result.

[Guest PWIT]

Anyone from Arkansas? What is the story on Huckabee?

[Guest beemerboy]

He was fat,now he's not.

[KYTOP]

The republican race will be very interesting since there is no major "real" conservative yet in the race that the party has been use to. Guiliani is considered a hero by many and that might help him get past a few of the non-conservative views he has.

Can the more moderate guys like those mentioned survive and wrestle control of the republican party from the extreme conservatives? Many will say who cares... but hopefully for the future of the whole country they can pull the republican party back more to center.

[Guest PWIT]

>.... but hopefully for the future of the whole country they can pull the

>republican party back more to center.

agree. Any thoughts if this is more likely if there are more or less conservative candidates in the primary? If there are more moderates, is it more likely a moderate would be nominated? Or would that just dilute the moderate vote in the primary? Should we hope for more or less conservative candidates to enter the ring in order for a moderate to be the likely nominee?

[Guest eastburbguy]

< but hopefully for the future of the whole country they can pull the republican party back more to center.

It will happen in due time ... after enough election losses, they'll figure out that if they want to win and govern, they have to get the math right, which means broadening their base beyond the very far right wing. Of course, that far right wing may just exit from politics as quickly as they emerged about 20 years ago, in which case the Repubs may be doomed to minority status for years to come.

[Guest eastburbguy]

< Any thoughts if this is more likely if there are more or less conservative candidates in the primary? If there are more moderates, is it more likely a moderate would be nominated? Or would that just dilute the moderate vote in the primary? Should we hope for more or less conservative candidates to enter the ring in order for a moderate to be the likely nominee?

Well first, there are a series of Primaries which winnow the field. After that, the answer is, The World Belongs To Those That Show Up, whether to vote in Primaries or attend Precinct Caucuses. For about 20 years, the majority of those that showed up at Repub events have been far right wingers. Those that "show up" in 2008 will select their next Presidential nominee.

Of course, at the risk of making this complicated, a corollary of this is that a numerical majority doesn't always equal power. In 12 of the (soon to be) past 20 years, Bush 1 and Bush 2 have genuflected to the far right but delivered virtually nothing. Translation = "Power" used the social conservatives to remain powerful for their own ends.

I'm curious. Which version of "moderate" do you all want from the Repubs? Is it "social moderation", i.e., stay out of our bedrooms, etc.? Ifso, you have that in the Dems. Is it a corporate oligarchy? If so, you already have that in BushCo, no matter how much they pander emptily to the social conservatives. Is it a hankering for the '50's - '60's Congressional Repubs like Jerry Ford and Bob Michel who, in their loyal opposition preserved the True Repub Principles but never made it into the majority so they could govern. I'm serious, I really am curious about what's going to happen to the "Repub Moderates" in the coming years.

:*

[Paying4sex]

Romney is a noted homophobe, trotting out an old - seldom used - law to block same-sex marriages for out-of-state residents.

Rudolph Giuliani apprently is not a homophobe, but his party is very homophobic!

As far as McCain goes, I assume that he's not a homophobe becasue his mentor - Barry Goldwater- was an ouispoken supporter of gay rights. However, the same applies to him; he represents a homophobic party!

[Guest epigonos]

In this age of political correctness there are at least three topics that are virtually taboo to discuss: ethnicity, gender, and age. Now with that said more and more pople are commenting on how old John McCain looks. What they fail to say is that HE IS OLD. If he were to be elected he would become president at age 72 and that is simply too damn old. Thus he doesn't simply have his position on Iraq to overcome he must also convince the voting public to vote for someone his age and that will be a very hard sell indeed.

[Guest eastburbguy]

Not from there, never been there, but here's some info:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...7012601286.html