Something is Moving on the Vaccine Front

[Riobard]

On 2/14/2021 at 8:59 AM, z909 said:

As far as I know, the published data shows none of the vaccines are 100% effective at preventing infection. 

So to get to them being 100% effective at preventing transmission is something I can't envisage.

The good news is the trial data tended to show approximately 100% prevention of severe disease.

Point 3, not exactly, but the news is still good.

In Phase III trials the numbers of overall cases were set at an occurrence threshold to meet bare minimum statistical power for inferential analysis. The severe case counts were too small to meaningful analyze, for example in Pfizer/BioNTech the study had one case in vaccinated group and four in placebo group. So the unvaccinated actually fared quite well in terms of severity but we would not say that if trying to promote vaccination.

A handful of severe cases is consistent with such occurrence over a few months in the general population. The efficacy touted in the media regarding severity is, perhaps, selectively cherry-picked to counter vaccine hesitancy and refusal. The follow-up was short-changed by about 80% of the study protocol’s intended efficacy time frame. Unblinding to offer vaccine to the placebo group has also irreversibly compromised more rigorous efficacy assessment. I am not criticizing these decisions but the data distortions can sometimes end up fuelling the anti-vaxxer agenda. 

Moderna could claim 100% prevention of severe disease because they could not isolate virus and corroborate diagnosis in the one vaccine recipient with apparent severe COVID, perhaps due to timing. 0 cases, 1 case, 4 cases out of thousands ... potayto potahto.

Bear in mind that if 10,000 of us used condoms with zero or one HIV infection acquired over one year, and 10,000 barebacked with four HIV infections resulting among them over the same time period, we would not assert that condom use was preventive. But our cocks are smarter than the average CoV denialist and are not easily hoodwinked. 

Now then  ... The real-world Pfindings comparing large swaths of recently vaccinated people in Israel demonstrate a marked reduction in case severity. This from a large vaccine waitlist-control trial there, in which for every eleven severe cases among the not yet vaccinated there was one severe novel coronavirus case among the full dose cycle vaccinated. Technically better than the essentially meaningless 4:1 ratio in the pre-authorization efficacy trial. 

It stands to reason that you can definitely become infected following vaccination, we know this, though the probability is much less. Since you can also acquire severe illness, I am currently convinced that you would be contagious and can transmit viral particles. This may depend on the viral load and be less likely as you shift on the gradient from severe down to mild or asymptomatic. 

So Virginia and West Virginia, yes there is a post-vaxx Severity Clause. Being vaccinated will apparently not entirely eliminate the chance of serious COVID disease. 

——-

Re: Sinovac ... for any vaccine I would assess both statistical efficacy, poor in this case, and immunogenicity prior to embracing it. I would want to know if the clinical production of antibodies meant they were effectively virus-neutralizing, since the ratio of infection cases between vaccine and placebo trial groups suggested poor performance, in Brazil where the study number of subjects supported more credible inferential analysis. For this vaccine I would be more confident once the majority of the population received it. 

[Guest]

I've received dose #1 of the Astra Zeneca vaccine.  

Felt a little below par from about 12~24 hours after the jab, so I presume the immune system must be getting to work.

 

[Taikonaut]

I can’t wait for mine but it looks to be months away for me still. 

[TMax]

Latest for me is first shot of Astra is sometime in May 

[Guest]

Phuket to Reopen by 1 July, for tourists who have been vaccinated, without quarantine (expected to be approved)

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2089659/phuket-to-reopen-by-july

That's subject to vaccinating 70% of the island's population & therefore achieving "herd immunity".

What they don't cover is:  What are the conditions for leaving Phuket to travel to other parts of Thailand ?     e.g. Can anyone move after 10 nights, 15 nights ?

If there are acceptable terms for moving on from Phuket, then the Thailand would be effectively open to those who have had 2 doses of the vaccine.

 

Some might have additional barriers to overcome, like being prevented from leaving their countries at present.   For example, residents of North Korea, Australia or the United Kingdom.  

However, I believe education is an acceptable reason to leave the UK, so anyone desperate for a holiday really ought to check to see if a language course would be permissible for this purpose.

 

[spoon]

Moving in a right direction, maybe they need to provide more than just one location to improve the situation. Pattaya, chiangmai, koh samui, are prime area for phuket model.

[Riobard]

Rescinded ... apologies

[Guest]

5 hours ago, spoon said:

Moving in a right direction, maybe they need to provide more than just one location to improve the situation. Pattaya, chiangmai, koh samui, are prime area for phuket model.

I would think there are 2 clear reasons why Phuket was first:

1 It's an island, so it ought to be easier to control who goes in and out

2 I read somewhere that tourism contributed 94% of the GDP for the province of Phuket.    Whilst Pattaya might be dependent on tourism, the province has a lot of industry as well.  So the impact on Phuket ought to be greater.

For anyone planning a long holiday in Thailand, if they are allowed to move on from Phuket within a couple of weeks, this ought to be a perfectly acceptable option to get into the country.    Obviously it's of little use for anyone who wants to spend just 1 week on holiday in another province.

[Riobard]

If Phuket wants to exercise due diligence, based on the more conservative estimates of CoronaVac efficacy for achieving herd immunity, they might be advised to target 1,200,000 doses administered to 90% rather than the planned 944,200 for 70% of inhabitants. Also since much of tourism is sourced from Asia, where the Sinovac product is ubiquitous.

Parenthetically China is muzzling and imposing practice sanctions on its clinicians that dare to compare national vaccine candidates with others on the market.