How close is a vaccine ?

[Guest]

An interesting FT article.     I presume most members don't have FT subscriptions, so for non-subscribers to access the article:

1   Type something like  the following into google:  how close is a coronavirus vaccine ft

2   Click on the link to the FT article.

If I post a direct link, it will ask you for a subscription.

[TotallyOz]

56 minutes ago, z909 said:

An interesting FT article.     I presume most members don't have FT subscriptions, so for non-subscribers to access the article:

1   Type something like  the following into google:  how close is a coronavirus vaccine ft

2   Click on the link to the FT article.

If I post a direct link, it will ask you for a subscription.

I got one today! I was surprised but it was being offered and only 2,000 baht so I took advantage of it. I'm a bit older and overweight and felt this was a good investment. I am not sure if I should have gotten it from the tailor I normally purchase my shirts from, but I figured they were from India and maybe they had an in with some pharmacy group so I took a chance. I know they would never lie to me just to make up for all the lost tourists.

[Guest]

So reckless.    You should have played safe and gone with the trusted vendors on Dongtan beach !

[reader]

From NY Times

Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective

The drug maker Pfizer announced on Monday that an early analysis of its coronavirus vaccine trial suggested the vaccine was robustly effective in preventing Covid-19, a promising development as the world has waited anxiously for any positive news about a pandemic that has killed more than 1.2 million people.

Pfizer, which developed the vaccine with the German drugmaker BioNTech, released only sparse details from its clinical trial, based on the first formal review of the data by an outside panel of experts.

The company said that the analysis found that the vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in preventing the disease among trial volunteers who had no evidence of prior coronavirus infection. If the results hold up, that level of protection would put it on par with highly effective childhood vaccines for diseases such as measles. No serious safety concerns have been observed, the company said.

Pfizer plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization of the two-dose vaccine later this month, after it has collected the recommended two months of safety data. By the end of the year it will have manufactured enough doses to immunize 15 to 20 million people, company executives have said.

Independent scientists have cautioned against hyping early results before long-term safety and efficacy data has been collected. And no one knows how long the vaccine’s protection might last. Still, the development makes Pfizer the first company to announce positive results from a late-stage vaccine trial, vaulting it to the front of a frenzied global race that began in January and has unfolded at record-breaking speed.

Eleven vaccines are in late-stage trials, including four in the United States. Pfizer’s progress could bode well for Moderna’s vaccine, which uses similar technology. Moderna has said it could have early results later this month.

[Guest]

The data is based on 94 infections.

If we assume the vaccine:placebo ratio was 50:50, then I presume this means 8 Covid infections amongst the vaccine group and 86 among the placebo group (approximately).  

[That's a common sense way of doing the calculation.    No idea if the experts do it differently]  

 

Pfizer announcement:  https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-Announce-Vaccine-Candidate-Against-COVID-19-Achieved-Success-in-First-Interim-Analysis-from-Phase-3-Study/default.aspx

 

 

 

[spoon]

On a different front, MIT, with the used of AI, use caugh noise to identify if a person have covid or not, and can even detect asymptomatic person's cough. If this study pans out, it could make detecting covid patient/spreader as easy as shazam apps. 

https://news.mit.edu/2020/covid-19-cough-cellphone-detection-1029

[vinapu]

now when Trump was voted out,  remind me what we exactly  need that vaccine for ?

[firecat69]

Who knows??  Thailand might allow vaccinated persons to visit Thailand.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, firecat69 said:

Who knows??  Thailand might allow vaccinated persons to visit Thailand.

Or Thailand might wait until it's vaccinated it's own people, which may start in the first half of 2021.

 

 

[fedssocr]

the Pfizer vaccine require freezing down to minus 100 degrees and 2 doses 28 days apart. The logistics of distribution will be daunting

[spoon]

4 hours ago, fedssocr said:

the Pfizer vaccine require freezing down to minus 100 degrees and 2 doses 28 days apart. The logistics of distribution will be daunting

The logical way is to allow other countries to produce their own vaccines, and maybe charge royalty from the sales? Still not easy as not all countries have the technology.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, spoon said:

The logical way is to allow other countries to produce their own vaccines, and maybe charge royalty from the sales? Still not easy as not all countries have the technology.

Yes.   The "Oxford" vaccine is already licensed for production in quite a number of countries.    Including Thailand, Australia, India and others.    

We're just awaiting trial results.

[reader]

For those with interest in the logistics discussed above:

From CBS' 60 Minutes (8 November)

Inside Operation Warp Speed effort to get 300 million Americans a COVID-19 vaccine

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-60-minutes-2020-11-08/

 

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Thais to get 1st Covid shots by mid-2021

Thai people will get their first jabs of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford by mid-2021 at the earliest, said Dr Nakhon Premsri, director of the National Vaccine Institute (NVI).

The vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford will be produced locally at the manufacturing plant of Siam Bioscience Group, located in Pathum Thani.

The Thai government is working with AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford to jointly produce the vaccine at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant of Siam Bioscience Group near Bangkok. Siam Bioscience Group was selected by the UK-based pharmaceutical firm as its regional partner to produce the vaccine for the Southeast Asian region.

The vaccine-makers announced that while the vaccine showed an average of 70% effectiveness, the level jumped to 90% depending on dosage.

With the raw materials directly shipped from the company, the vaccine will be produced made-to-order by the Department of Disease Control (DDC).

The department says that it requires two million doses per month from the plant, which can, at full capacity, produce 15 million doses per month.

Dr Opas Kankawinphong, acting director of the DDC, said that the government would spend 3.7 billion baht to prepare for the vaccine's transportation and storage, and its monitoring system as well as on a far-reaching campaign to raise public awareness about how to get the vaccine.

He said the Covid-19 vaccine will be the most extensive vaccination programme ever in Thailand.

"Giving 26 million doses of vaccine to over 13 million people is unprecedented in Thailand. The largest we ever provided were five million doses of a flu vaccine. So we need to make everything work, especially when it comes to creating awareness among the public," he said.

[reader]

From The Nation

Thailand to launch nationwide Covid-19 vaccination in May

Thailand’s Covid-19 vaccination programme will begin in May 2021, according to the Department of Disease Control (DDC)’s action plan revealed on Thursday.

The country last week signed a Bt6-billion deal to buy 26 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine to immunise 13 million people.

The vaccine will first have to pass safety and quality checks applied by the Thai Food and Drug Administration and Department of Medical Sciences under the Public Health Ministry, said DDC director-general Opas Karnkawinpong.Secondly, the DDC will prepare vaccination centres at more than 10,000 subdistrict health promotion hospitals nationwide to reach communities quickly and prevent crowding in large hospitals.

A cold-chain transport system to maintain vaccine quality is now being prepared, and officials are being trained for the mass vaccination programme. The first to be called for registration will be medical staff, young children, the elderly, and vulnerable groups.

Local health authorities will then summon registered participants for vaccination at health promotion hospitals or mobile health units.

[Guest]

Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, apparently the Astra-Zeneca "Oxford" vaccine can be stored at 2~8C.    So I would think any conventional refrigerated transport should do, assuming there are suitable temperature recording devices.

[eurasian]

Turkish Ministry of Health announced that they will start vaccination of 25 million people with Sinovac vaccine ( deactivated covid 19 vaccine from China , storage 2 to 8 C ) from mid December 2020 to March 2021 . From April on a Turkish vaccine will be on stage for the rest of the population .

[reader]

From Channel News Asia

Thai hospital ordered to stop advertising sale of COVID-19 vaccine

BANGKOK: A private Thai hospital was ordered on Sunday (Dec 27) to stop advertising COVID-19 vaccinations for sale in advance on the grounds that no vaccine is yet approved in Thailand.

Vibhavadi Hospital told Reuters its online offer for 1,000 initial reservations for the two-dose Moderna vaccine had been the result of a misunderstanding. With reservations priced at 4,000 baht, the total cost of getting vaccinated would have been 10,000 baht (US$330).

As the first governments begin vaccine rollouts around the world, questions have been raised over how the limited supplies are prioritised and whether people will be able to pay to jump the queue.

The Ministry of Health said in a statement that no COVID-19 vaccine had been approved for use in Thailand yet and that advertising one violated hospital regulations.

"The removal of the advertisement was ordered," it said.

In August, Moderna said it was pricing its vaccine at US$32 to US$37 per dose for smaller deals.

Thailand is a major hub for medical tourism, drawing patients from Asia, the Middle East and beyond.

Source: Reuters/zl

 

[spoon]

I guess thailand citizen have to wait loner for the vaccine, and indirectly, normal tourism wouldnt happened until then. 

[TotallyOz]

22 minutes ago, reader said:

From Channel News Asia

Thai hospital ordered to stop advertising sale of COVID-19 vaccine

BANGKOK: A private Thai hospital was ordered on Sunday (Dec 27) to stop advertising COVID-19 vaccinations for sale in advance on the grounds that no vaccine is yet approved in Thailand.

Vibhavadi Hospital told Reuters its online offer for 1,000 initial reservations for the two-dose Moderna vaccine had been the result of a misunderstanding. With reservations priced at 4,000 baht, the total cost of getting vaccinated would have been 10,000 baht (US$330).

As the first governments begin vaccine rollouts around the world, questions have been raised over how the limited supplies are prioritised and whether people will be able to pay to jump the queue.

The Ministry of Health said in a statement that no COVID-19 vaccine had been approved for use in Thailand yet and that advertising one violated hospital regulations.

"The removal of the advertisement was ordered," it said.

In August, Moderna said it was pricing its vaccine at US$32 to US$37 per dose for smaller deals.

Thailand is a major hub for medical tourism, drawing patients from Asia, the Middle East and beyond.

Source: Reuters/zl

 

I have been waiting for some hospitals to capitalize on this. The government needs to get some things approved and started. Thailand is lagging behind on this.

5 minutes ago, spoon said:

I guess thailand citizen have to wait loner for the vaccine, and indirectly, normal tourism wouldnt happened until then. 

I think that it will start allowing people who have been vaccinated into the country. I know discussions have already been taking place at Parliament but no word yet on the requirements.

 

[vinapu]

25 minutes ago, Michael said:

 

I think that it will start allowing people who have been vaccinated into the country.

 

I'm not following that closely but do they know how vaccine works? Isn't it possible that vaccinated person will not  get sick but still may spread the virus ?. In such a case they may want until they vaccinate Thai population first

Honest question, apologies for being stupid but medical stuff is not an area of my interest as I always believed that it's very unhealthy to get sick.

[reader]

6 hours ago, Michael said:

I think that it will start allowing people who have been vaccinated into the country. I know discussions have already been taking place at Parliament but no word yet on the requirements.

+1

======================================

I noticed that the Thai government was opposed to the hospital's "adverting" availability of the vaccine but not necessarily the distribution. Government probably doesn't like the idea of publicizing that limited doses of vaccine being made available to those who could afford the 10,000 bht price tag but well out of reach to working class citizens.

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, reader said:

 Government probably doesn't like the idea of publicizing that limited doses of vaccine being made available to those who could afford the 10,000 bht price tag but well out of reach to working class citizens.

and rightly so , specially now when they have sudden surge of cases

[TMax]

12 hours ago, vinapu said:

I'm not following that closely but do they know how vaccine works? Isn't it possible that vaccinated person will not  get sick but still may spread the virus ?. In such a case they may want until they vaccinate Thai population first

Honest question, apologies for being stupid but medical stuff is not an area of my interest as I always believed that it's very unhealthy to get sick.

From what I have been following and as some doctors are explaining, whether they are right or not only time will tell but to them it's how it's looking at the moment

Basically these generation 1 vaccines at present appear to stop the disease but not stop the actual infection (it's like they have split the virus into 2 categories, infection and disease), so a vaccinated person may still get the virus but will only get a mild infection (sort of like a bad cold) and not get the severe illness. They aren't too sure yet just how effective the gen 1 vaccines are in stopping people actually getting the virus as that is still reliant on the testing and are saying that the future gen 2 and gen 3 vaccines will most likely be the ones to prevent infection (much like a flu shot).

[Guest]

From what has been published, I thought the vaccine phase 3 trial results typically show over 90% efficacy in preventing infection and 100% efficacy in preventing severe illness and death.  I'll take that.

Preventing transmission is another point.   I haven't seen any clear results, but the vaccines are thought to help.