How long with Travel Restrictions Be in Place?

[TotallyOz]

I have a lot of friends who are staying that travel restrictions for Thailand will last at least through past summer 2021. Does this even seem possible? 

[spoon]

At this point of time, nothing is certain. We are trying to predict the thai, and TIT.

[vinapu]

Unfortunately yes, it's possible. Too much of unknown so I wouldn't be singling Thais out. This is question mark hanging over all countries as by summer 2021 we may start already forgetting about virus but also we may realize that 2020 was picnic in comparison to 2021.

Where Thailand stands out is being particularly careful, way too careful if you ask me .

Brazll is much more affected and at least 2 forum members went there in recent months and survived to tell the tale.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, vinapu said:

Where Thailand stands out is being particularly careful, way too careful if you ask me .

Agreed.

The strange thing is Thailand is so careful about this specific cause of premature death and is prepared to ruin large sectors of the economy in doing so.

Meanwhile, when it comes to other causes of premature death, like road traffic deaths or air pollution, they are not prepared to take action which would have almost no noticeable economic loss. Probably a net economic gain.

So there's a big inconsistency in policy and therefore it's difficult to predict what they will do.    I'd expect a few more protests from people who have lost their jobs as a result of this excessive caution.  Maybe that will force the government to move.    

 

 

[Boy69]

5 hours ago, z909 said:

Agreed.

The strange thing is Thailand is so careful about this specific cause of premature death and is prepared to ruin large sectors of the economy in doing so.

Meanwhile, when it comes to other causes of premature death, like road traffic deaths or air pollution, they are not prepared to take action which would have almost no noticeable economic loss. Probably a net economic gain.

So there's a big inconsistency in policy and therefore it's difficult to predict what they will do.    I'd expect a few more protests from people who have lost their jobs as a result of this excessive caution.  Maybe that will force the government to move.    

 

 

The problem is that the tourism sector play significant part at the Thai economy ,if the restrictions on traveling to Thailand continue very long period the tourism industry might coulopsed with many hotels and business go bankruptcy without any option to reopen again once the appademic is over , millions will be unemployed. It will take years for the Thai economy to recover.

[anddy]

11 hours ago, z909 said:

So there's a big inconsistency in policy and therefore it's difficult to predict what they will do.

That's one, if not THE most prominent hallmark of Thai policy - inconsistency. Paired with often not making sense and/or being illogical (both to the western mind, at least) makes it utterly unpredictable. As @spoon already said, TiT, and all we can do is shake our heads. Conclusion:

22 hours ago, Michael said:

Does this even seem possible? 

Yes. 

Tourism sector trashed? Overall economy suffering as a consequence? They don't care. Or rather they pretend to care, and come up with remedial policies, which in turn suffer from the usual ailments mentioned above. The Phuket model aiming to "restart tourism" may be somewhat of a "restart" but will be less than a drop in the bucket given their aim for a whopping 1200 tourist admissions per month. 

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

BoT sees slower recovery in 2021

Thailand's economic recovery is expected to take longer than previously anticipated, mainly due to the drastic decline in foreign tourist numbers, says the Bank of Thailand.

The central bank slashed its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 5% to 3.6% as the pandemic continues to hamper international travel.

The central bank has revised down its foreign arrivals forecast for next year from the previous 16.2 million to 9 million, said Titanun Mallikamas, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The outbreak situation and the offshore impact have been more severe than expected. Several countries have been facing higher infection cases, second-wave outbreaks and longer lockdown policies, Mr Titanun said. These factors will incur an impact on foreign travellers with plans to visit Thailand.

"With this scenario [the slow recovery of foreign tourist figures], overall economic activity will take at least two years to return to pre-pandemic levels," he said.

The central bank earlier warned that Thailand's tourism industry would face greater risks next year if the government continued to restrict foreign travellers from entering the country.

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Thailand eyes 50,000 foreign tourists in Q4, down 99.5%

hailand is expected to have 50,000 foreign tourists in the fourth quarter of 2020, down 99.5% from a year earlier, an industry body said on Wednesday, as the country tries to support its battered economy by gradually reopening to visitors.

Foreign tourist receipts are seen at 4.5 billion baht in the quarter, down 99% year-on-year, Chairat Trirattanajarasporn, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, told a briefing.

The council predicts 6.74 million foreign tourists this year, down 83% from a year earlier, after a record 39.8 million visitors last year, he said.

Next year's outlook remains uncertain, Mr Chairat said, although the official tourism agency predicts 20 million foreign tourist in 2021.

"If there is no vaccine and we still have a 14-day quarantine, I expect only hundreds of thousands of tourists next year," he said.

[PeterRS]

14 hours ago, reader said:

From Bangkok Post

Thailand eyes 50,000 foreign tourists in Q4, down 99.5%

hailand is expected to have 50,000 foreign tourists in the fourth quarter of 2020, down 99.5% from a year earlier, an industry body said on Wednesday, as the country tries to support its battered economy by gradually reopening to visitors.

I wish in Thailand the left hand would occasionally talk with the right. Just a couple of days ago we are told that a limit of 1,200 would be placed on visitors coming in each month. Since we are now in October , even tho full details of that scheme are still to  be announced, the cabinet seems to expect a maximum of 3,600. How does any industry body expect that number to inflate to 50,000? TIT

[spoon]

They will increase the amount slowly i believe? By november, quarantine days will be reduced to 7 days if i remember correctly if the first two group in october have no case. I supposed they will also gradually increase the amount allowed to come as well. Just my guess though. Another guess is they pick that number out of thin air. Lol

[Guest]

Well, if they remove some of the daft restrictions and the quarantine conditions are reasonable, they will get more people coming back. 

If, during the winter, it gets to the point where I can easily get a 90 day visa, with no pre-payment for 90 days accommodation, my choice of flight and acceptable quarantine for no more than 7 or 14 days, then I shall probably be going to Thailand.        

It must be noted that some of the daft restrictions imposed have no effect on virus transmission rates.   Only requirements like wearing masks on the plane and quarantine are of any use.

[Gaybutton]

On 9/21/2020 at 7:11 PM, Michael said:

I have a lot of friends who are staying that travel restrictions for Thailand will last at least through past summer 2021. Does this even seem possible? 

I think it is not only possible, but quite likely.  I think restrictions will be in place long beyond that. especially if that predicted resurgence of the virus does happen.

Thailand's powers-that-be want to keep Covid-19 out of Thailand and that has so far it has been successful and has taken precedence over economic problems.  I see no sign of any significant changes any time soon and nothing to indicate any change in Thailand's stance, "daft" or not.

 

[Guest]

For clarity, I would put the Thai rules into 2 categories

Sensible restriction are:  Quarantine, testing & wearing masks on planes.      Whether these restrictions offer sufficient benefit to offset the economic damage is another question, but at least there's some logic behind them.   

Daft restrictions are: Requiring prepayment of accommodation, arrival on charter planes, any admin steps beyond a quick 5 minute on line application etc etc.    

The first thing they should do is sweep away all of the daft restrictions as these do not stop the spread of the virus.   There's no need to keep these rules until tomorrow, never mind summer 2021.

Then have some sensible conversations about whether or not they need a full 14 days of quarantine.    Making a decision about reducing this to 7 days after the first 400 tourists is would clearly be using an inadequate sample size, so that's not a sensible way to do it. 

There may be an argument for keeping some level of quarantine based restriction until well into 2021, but they need to make quarantine as comfortable as possible and immediately delete all the other restrictions.