Thailand finds first locally transmitted case of Covid-19 in over 100 days

[TotallyOz]

https://www.thaienquirer.com/17955/thailand-finds-first-case-locally-transmitted-case-of-covid-19-in-over-100-days/

[Guest]

Panic everyone !

In those last 100 days, I guess Thailand has had something like 5000 deaths in road traffic accidents (ballpark).    These would include people of all ages, including the young and healthy ones.   So many lost years of life.    

Thailand is not prepared to do the basics to bring road traffic deaths in line with other countries.   e.g. enforcing helmet rules, seatbelt wearing, prosecuting drunks etc, all of which have negligible detrimental effect on the economy.    

Yet when they have a NEW disease like Covid, they're prepared to completely screw up large sectors of the economy to stop it.    Even when if they had minimum controls, the death rate in 1 year would be unlikely to match the annual death on the road.     And quite a few of the covid deaths would be just bringing forward death by a few months for people who are already near the end, which I have to say I would prefer to being killed in a RTA at 19 years old.  

If they relaxed covid controls and tightened up on policing of the roads, they could get a lower net death rate and remove most economic restrictions.

[TotallyOz]

7 hours ago, z909 said:

Panic everyone !

In those last 100 days, I guess Thailand has had something like 5000 deaths in road traffic accidents (ballpark).    These would include people of all ages, including the young and healthy ones.   So many lost years of life.    

Thailand is not prepared to do the basics to bring road traffic deaths in line with other countries.   e.g. enforcing helmet rules, seatbelt wearing, prosecuting drunks etc, all of which have negligible detrimental effect on the economy.    

Yet when they have a NEW disease like Covid, they're prepared to completely screw up large sectors of the economy to stop it.    Even when if they had minimum controls, the death rate in 1 year would be unlikely to match the annual death on the road.     And quite a few of the covid deaths would be just bringing forward death by a few months for people who are already near the end, which I have to say I would prefer to being killed in a RTA at 19 years old.  

If they relaxed covid controls and tightened up on policing of the roads, they could get a lower net death rate and remove most economic restrictions.

I definitely understand your point regarding numbers. People in Thailand can't all afford cars. Most deaths are motorcycle related. I personally know many young people who have died on those 2 wheel machines. They will not give them up as they can't afford it. The people want them. How many of the posters on this site have bought a motorcycle for a boy? I bet more than a few. How many would buy a car for them?  I also bet that number would be much less.

The people also seem to want to keep Covid under control. They were protests when a few diplomats got into the country. People here are scared and rightly so. The mass doesn't care as much about the economy and tourism as you think they do. They seem to be more concerned with keeping the country safe. The people want it.

I have said this before. I feel safe here. (for now)  I hope they don't relax Covid controls until a vaccine is found and given to all.

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, Michael said:

....  I hope they don't relax Covid controls until a vaccine is found and given to all.

or until riots force them to and then it will become really dangerous

[Guest]

Apologies for the rather poor writing style of my previous post.   Must try harder.   

Even if Thailand had almost no controls on Covid, they would not get near the 20,000 annual deaths from road traffic.     

One killer requires the economy to be partly shut down and the other doesn't even lead to proper enforcement of road safety measures, which are standard in many countries.    There is no consistency.

I don't want to stop Thais riding motorcycles.  However, they should at least enforce helmet wearing, prevent under age riding and clamp down on dangerous driving.    Also, enforce seatbelt wearing etc.

As for people in Thailand being scared of Covid, well if they are fit and under 50, there is minimal risk.    It's just a matter of communicating this.

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, z909 said:

As for people in Thailand being scared of Covid, well if they are fit and under 50, there is minimal risk.    It's just a matter of communicating this.

I wonder how true this really is. Daily I hear news reports that it is no longer a case of minimal risk for those under 50. This seems to be an illness with lingering side effects that can go on for months. And some specialists are now saying it is basically a disease that attacks the blood vessels rather than primarily the lungs. Whatever its effect on greater numbers of young people, we will presumably find out soon enough as thousands of US students have now contracted the virus thanks to the policy of opening up places of education.

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, PeterRS said:

 And some specialists are now saying it is basically a disease that attacks the blood vessels rather than primarily the lungs.

While this is correct, I'm afraid that those days we can find some specialists supporting any theory or hypothesis.

When we move to a stage ' most specialists are now saying....." then we will know we know something.

[anddy]

Another thing about enforcement of road safety is the fines imposed. The fine is always the same, regardless of the severity or dangerousness of the violation. I give you some examples of fines I have incurred myself:

park mosai on sidewalk or other spot where it's not permitted 400 Baht
illegal u-turn (on mosai) 400 Baht
speeding on motorway (in car; limit 90, actual 112, so not THAT bad) 500 Baht (would be same for much faster speed)

Going through a red light, which depending on the nature of the intersection and the time of day/night can obviously be VERY VERY dangerous would also be just a paltry 500 Baht. In Germany, you lose your license for 1 month instantly on passing a red light, plus a steep fine, PLUS the highest number of points for a traffic violation (with a certain number of points you lose your license for good).
Result: red lights in Thailand passed ALL the time, even in plain view of the police (I do that, too, these days when it is safe to do so) whereas nobody does it in Germany. 

A while ago I heard or read about proposals of introducing a points system here, too, but as usual nothing has come of it (yet) - TiT.

[anddy]

On the danger of Covid, I can't help but feel that it is much less of a menace now when I look at some simple numbers for France (which I did because some friends wanted to travel there, weren't sure but then decided to go):

- daily new cases about the same as at the height of the crisis & lockdown in March
- active cases actually THREE times as many as then 150k vs 50k)
- but (almost) nobody dies from it any more

I admit I haven't looked at any other countries, just France for the given reason, but I find that very striking.

 

[vinapu]

what we need it for some people in charge to see what you presented and act on it instead of keeping big chunks of populaces idle, fed by scary narratives .

( by the way I wonder what that negative 200 death around May 18 means? certainly not resurrections )

[Guest]

3 hours ago, anddy said:

- but (almost) nobody dies from it any more

I've seen similar trends in other countries.    I suspect many of the current infections are younger people, as they've worked out they're unlikely to be badly affected and are out socializing and having fun.   Quite right too.     

If vaccines take longer than expected, it's probably quite a good thing if the younger low risk people start acquiring herd immunity. 

Admittedly, there might also be a lag between the increase in cases and deaths, but some data doesn't really show that.     

Also, treatment is improving, from helped by the data gathered from trials earlier in the year. 

 

[Up2u]

7 hours ago, anddy said:

On the danger of Covid, I can't help but feel that it is much less of a menace now when I look at some simple numbers for France (which I did because some friends wanted to travel there, weren't sure but then decided to go):

- daily new cases about the same as at the height of the crisis & lockdown in March
- active cases actually THREE times as many as then 150k vs 50k)
- but (almost) nobody dies from it any more

I admit I haven't looked at any other countries, just France for the given reason, but I find that very striking.

 

France is spiking in recent days and don't forget Spain. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/france-coronavirus-cases.html&ved=2ahUKEwj9g5vo7NDrAhUFeisKHWkeBYoQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw368YBG5F3u26w25Lm0Rxsa

Reading the various forums, I note there are are many posters giving advice to Thailand on how to deal with the virus. Looking at their own country's track record on managing (or lack of) the virus they lack any credibility. Shortly, flu season will arrive in the northern climates and with it predictions of another covid wave. In America, a forecaster the White House uses is predicting 410,000 deaths by Jan 1 with a worst case scenario of over 600k.  Think of that, hundreds of thousands of lives needlessly lost because of government mismanagement and selfish people not wearing masks and following well established guidelines. Thailand got it right; and one wonders who is the third world country, Thailand or my home country?  Trust science, be patient, vaccines will be here shortly and we'll all be traveling again. 

 

[vinapu]

23 minutes ago, Up2u said:

 In America, a forecaster the White House uses is predicting 410,000 deaths by Jan 1 with a worst case scenario of over 600k.  Think of that, hundreds of thousands of lives needlessly lost....

 

that 410 000 is predicted total  or on top of what normal rate of death is ? Honest question

Alarmed by virus menace we tend to forget that people are dying daily for various reasons and at this time unfortunately many because  they can't obtain timely  care since  most resources are going to combat Covid.

[Up2u]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

that 410 000 is predicted total  or on top of what normal rate of death is ? Honest question

Alarmed by virus menace we tend to forget that people are dying daily for various reasons and at this time unfortunately many because  they can't obtain timely  care since  most resources are going to combat Covid.

Covid-19 deaths from the IMHE model. This model is used by the White House and has historically understated the deaths. 

[anddy]

another piece in the puzzle explaining increased cases but no illness or death may be this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54000629

 

[spoon]

16 minutes ago, anddy said:

another piece in the puzzle explaining increased cases but no illness or death may be this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54000629

 

And im sure vaccine will also add to the confusion of the test reliability. Though ive read vaccine progresses are encouraging. 

[Up2u]

5 hours ago, Up2u said:

Covid-19 deaths from the IMHE model. This model is used by the White House and has historically understated the deaths. 

I found the link.... (IMHE = Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) 

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-united-states

 

[Up2u]

 

600 facing quarantine after Thailand’s first locally-acquired COVID infection for 100 days

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/600-facing-quarantine-after-thailands-first-locally-acquired-covid-infection-for-100-days/

 

[vinapu]

it looks that as pandemic progresses we know more and at the same time less about virus behavior and dangers.

but since there's progress in works on vaccines days when we will have less vital but more interesting discussions about bars and boys  are near

[10tazione]

18 hours ago, vinapu said:

( by the way I wonder what that negative 200 death around May 18 means? certainly not resurrections )

I guess they are corrections. I find it somewhat shocking that (all?) countries in the year 2020 are not able to collect/report covid data in a correct way on the time axis. i.e. distinguish between day of death and day of administration. Same same with day of swab/sampling and day of administration of the result, which can differ by a week.

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, 10tazione said:

 I find it somewhat shocking that (all?) countries in the year 2020 are not able to collect/report covid data in a correct way on the .........

there are politics and economics involved

In some places treating covid patients may be more lucrative  for doctors and hospitals no numbers may be inflated. Some governments may be doing the same to keep population cowed and scared. Other may treat is as matter of national pride and both cases and deaths may go under reported.

Those are not conspiracy theories. Where I live,  for a while ( it's leveled now ) your unemployment benefit was higher and waiting period waived if you applied because  losing job for Covid than for other reasons like shortage of work. Honor reporting system worked only to some extend it seems as it looks government started looking into it.

 

[anddy]

On 9/5/2020 at 5:38 PM, Up2u said:

 

600 facing quarantine after Thailand’s first locally-acquired COVID infection for 100 days

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/600-facing-quarantine-after-thailands-first-locally-acquired-covid-infection-for-100-days/

 

ONE SINGLE case and major panic breaks out. Even the Phuket project gets delayed because of it:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1980435/phuket-reopening-delayed

What does the one case have to do with the Phuket tourist model? Nothing I'd say. What would they have done had that one local case occurred in October when the Phuket was already running? Have all the tourists (assuming there are any) pack up and send them home?

Goes to show how scared shitless they still are.

[10tazione]

one case ... must be immaculate conception

[Boy69]

3 hours ago, anddy said:

ONE SINGLE case and major panic breaks out. Even the Phuket project gets delayed because of it:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1980435/phuket-reopening-delayed

What does the one case have to do with the Phuket tourist model? Nothing I'd say. What would they have done had that one local case occurred in October when the Phuket was already running? Have all the tourists (assuming there are any) pack up and send them home?

Goes to show how scared shitless they still are.

Like most governments in the world the Thai one making decisions based of irrational panic instead to use basic commonsense . I don't believe they open the borders for tourists till effective vaccination will found.

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, Boy69 said:

 I don't believe they open the borders for tourists till effective vaccination will found.

get ready for  Christmas in BKK