When will Thailand open to Tourists- question/speculation?

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, Up2u said:

Leading Walking Street business owners warn of “total collapse” of tourism industry in Pattaya if Thailand has no foreign tourists for another 3-6 months

https://thepattayanews.com/2020/09/05/leading-walking-street-business-owners-warn-of-total-collapse-of-tourism-industry-in-pattaya-if-thailand-has-no-foreign-tourists-for-another-3-6-months/

I ran this topic by my bf and the Thai lady that runs a travel agency in our condo (Pattaya). The resiliency of the Thai people and the patience always amazes, just ride out the storm seems like the appropriate metaphor, no matter how long it takes. 

this comment from an article drew my attention : 

"As Mr. Ud told Associated Reporters “What good is it that I am safe from this virus that about 99% of people survive if I cannot eat and have no home and no way to take care of my family?”

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, reader said:

Resiliency is something people with jobs can more readily summon than those without.

 

I'd say rather ' people with income". A lot of retirees would become all of the sudden in favor of opening when it was announced that due to covid foreign money transfers are suspended .

( I know it's impossible, one year ago having Swampy empty for 6 months in row seemed impossible too  )

[spoon]

36 minutes ago, vinapu said:

I'd say rather ' people with income". A lot of retirees would become all of the sudden in favor of opening when it was announced that due to covid foreign money transfers are suspended .

( I know it's impossible, one year ago having Swampy empty for 6 months in row seemed impossible too  )

Its not impossible. Greece, Argentina and i bet many more had this happened. When a country in default, thats what happened. The bank freezes all withdrawal, so even if you have money, no way to access it. I remember before this Myanmar was the same case, as my colleague who worked there had to bring cash from malaysia to myanmar as our company cannot pay their salary over there. Im pretty sure similar or worse things happened in war-stricken nation too. Now, will it happened to thailand? Who knows...

[vinapu]

27 minutes ago, spoon said:

Its not impossible. Greece, Argentina and i bet many more had this happened. 

You are obviously right. I used word  ' impossible ' not to reflect on Thailand situation but rather to underscore point that what we see unlikely today may become reality another day.

Even best performing economy may suddenly restrict access to money for example due to co-oordinated hackers attack on banking system or even more simply - because sudden  lack of electricity which few summers ago good chunk of Eastern USA and Canada learned when  grid collapsed due to some malfunction

[Guest]

3 hours ago, spoon said:

Its not impossible. Greece, Argentina and i bet many more had this happened. When a country in default, thats what happened. The bank freezes all withdrawal, so even if you have money, no way to access it. I remember before this Myanmar was the same case, as my colleague who worked there had to bring cash from malaysia to myanmar as our company cannot pay their salary over there. Im pretty sure similar or worse things happened in war-stricken nation too. Now, will it happened to thailand? Who knows...

Agreed.   Other countries deal with debt by printing money & if they overdo it, things end up like Zimbabwe.   

Always good to have assets in more than one country and perhaps some gold as well. 

 

 

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, z909 said:

   

Always good to have assets in more than one country ......

 

now we know why Myanmar, Lao, Viet  and Khmer guys are coming to work  in BKK and Pattaya bars, moving assets to another country, LOL 

[gerefan]

We are starting to see demonstrations around the world against all these Covid restrictions and they will only get more vocal. Thailand included.

In years to come it will be seen as the worlds worst own goal.

The Media is the Virus.

[Up2u]

2 hours ago, gerefan said:

We are starting to see demonstrations around the world against all these Covid restrictions and they will only get more vocal. Thailand included.

In years to come it will be seen as the worlds worst own goal.

The Media is the Virus.

Like HK, demonstrations in Thailand will be young people yearning for democracy and nothing related to covid pandemic. The right wing demonstrations remind me of the smoking wars debates. I have a right not to wear a mask (i.e.;  no you don't) or I have a right to smoke as I please . As I told friends, your right to smoke ends at the tip of my nose and you have no right to spread a serious or deadly disease. 

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, Up2u said:

 As I told friends, your right to smoke ends at the tip of my nose and you have no right to spread a serious or deadly disease. 

not to argue but I'd like to note that 100 % of smokers smoke while perhaps no more than 0.01% of masked population ( if that much )  actually  carries virus, quite a difference to make such comparison valid

[firecat69]

That number is 0.01% is ridiculous . First of all wearing as mask has nothing to do with you already having the virus but only to help you from contracting it or giving it to someone else.

We have tested a minuscule % of the US population so nobody can be sure of the exact numbers and because of that you have to look to the scientists. 

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-officials-estimate-over-6-of-us-population-are-infected/a-53933626    Assuming this article is somewhat accurate and there are many others who think in the same area, that is 60 times your comparison of 0.01%.  Plus people in general don't get cancer from smoke in a room. They get it by inhaling the carcinogens in those filthy cigarettes .

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, firecat69 said:

That number is 0.01% is ridiculous.....

you are right as it grossly / more than twice /  overestimated

according to Thai PBS World from Sept 4-2020 :

"Cumulative infections in Thailand, to date, are 3,431 with 3,277 recoveries and 96 others still in hospital.  The death toll remains at 58."

according to UN data ( source : worldometer.com ) as of Jun 30 Thailand population  was 69 799 978 including those who are wearing and not wearing masks so not 0.01 % but only 0.0049% of population  got infected. Even if only every second person carrying virus actually gets infected it still 0.0098 %, still marginally less then 0.01 %

60 times *0.01%=0.6%, toughly 1 person in 150 would be infected , still not bad , for Thailand it would be about 467 000, 137 times of quoted above infection rate.

[firecat69]

I'm sorry if I did not realize you were talking about Thailand with your 0.01 %. It certainly was not clear either in your response to Up2U  or that Up2U was talking about Thailand rather than his own country.

Ridiculous to try to compare a country like Thailand that did the right thing with a country which has a Moron for President  who is only interested in his own wealth and to hell with the almost 200,000 people who have already died and the many more that will come unfortunately. After all the Labor Day celebrations the death count will again spurt way past 1000 per day and no telling what the final count will be but many experts think it may be 500,000 by the end of the year. Flu season is about to start which will even complicate more the lives of anyone with the Virus.

No wonder almost no country in the world will allow people from the USA to visit them. Really matters little when Thailand will open their borders because the US will be at the end of a long waiting line, before they are welcome!

[Guest]

4 hours ago, firecat69 said:

Ridiculous to try to compare a country like Thailand that did the right thing with a country which has a Moron for President  

Yes it is ridiculous.   Which is why, no one appears to have made that comparison on this page.     If you disagree, feel free to quote the appropriate section.

 

 

[vinapu]

4 hours ago, firecat69 said:

Really matters little when Thailand will open their borders because the US will be at the end of a long waiting line, before they are welcome!

sad but true unless American scientific might will produce some reliable vaccine

[firecat69]

9 hours ago, z909 said:

Yes it is ridiculous.   Which is why, no one appears to have made that comparison on this page.     If you disagree, feel free to quote the appropriate section.

 

 

Why are you always trying to pick a fight.? I did not accuse anyone of making that comparison. In fact I apologized  for not realizing his post about 0.01% was about Thailand . ( Sometimes at 2am the brain does not operate at 100%) This thread is about tourists returning to Thailand . So since I am from the US as are many posters am I not allowed to state my beliefs that  US citizens will be at the end of the line when it comes to returning to Thailand . That they are 1 of the 2 worst countries in the world in handling the Virus . That their % of citizens with the Virus is disgusting .

Truth is Thailand did one of the best jobs and they will decide who gets to return and in what order.  And anyone who would criticize Thailand for the lock down , they better come from a country that did an equal or better job. ( may not be any) . Whether I might have assumed Vinapu was from the US has no meaning , because I once guessed he was from Canada and he corrected me and for all I know he is from Venezuela.

[reader]

From Khaosod English

Health Minister Continues to Push ‘Phuket Model’ Despite Opposition

BANGKOK — Health minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Tuesday said the proposal to reopen Phuket to foreign tourists will go ahead in spite of opposition from the local communities.

Anutin said the proposal of “limited tourism” on the southern resort island was already approved by the government’s pandemic response center, though PM Prayut Chan-o-cha will have the final say on when the foreign tourists can come in. Other government officials have also expressed safety concerns over the project.

“The government is ready to support and ease the measures,” Anutin told reporters. “This will allow entrepreneurs to generate income and retain jobs. We are ready, but all the stakeholders must help us too.”

Under the government’s latest proposal to restart the lucrative tourism industry, visitors from countries where there has been no outbreak for at least 30 days would be allowed to visit Phuket – but they must first spend 14 days in quarantine before they can roam around the island.

He also criticized those who opposed the plan, saying that the country should not live under virus scare forever.

“Those people who voice out the opposition, are they really Phuket people?” Anutin said. “We’ve said many times that we shouldn’t be afraid of COVID-19 to the point that we don’t want to do anything. I confirm that Thailand is ready to fight with COVID-19. If we’re ready, then let’s face it.”

Tourism Authority of Thailand director Yuthasak Supasorn said yesterday he feared Thailand would risk a second wave of the pandemic if the government went ahead with the plan.

Thailand’s 100-day record of no local transmission was broken on Thursday, after a prison inmate reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus inside a quarantine facility.

Although no one else tested positive for the virus so far, government officials have yet to conclude how the 37-year-old prisoner contracted the coronavirus.

In a somewhat unhelpful statement, senior health official Kiattiphum Wongrachit said the man was likely infected by either someone who recently traveled from overseas, or by someone who resides inside Thailand.

“Tests of those in close contact with him came out negative,” Kiattiphum said.

The government reported that no one was infected by the latest patient so far, while the country’s cumulative case of infection stands at 3,446 as of today.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, firecat69 said:

Why are you always trying to pick a fight.? I did not accuse anyone of making that comparison.

I quoted what you said, agreed with you and pointed out that no one has actually made that comparison.     

How is that starting a fight ?     

 

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, reader said:

 

He also criticized those who opposed the plan, saying that the country should not live under virus scare forever.

. “We’ve said many times that we shouldn’t be afraid of COVID-19 to the point that we don’t want to do anything. I confirm that Thailand is ready to fight with COVID-19. If we’re ready, then let’s face it.”

 

I find that way of thinking very reasonable and applicable to all countries.

There's still possibility that virus will not give up , vaccine will not be found or will be ineffective and even that people will be re-infected. Scary but not impossible.

And nations will need to face it the same way they face other calamities like earthquakes, floods, volcano eruptions, Trump elections, syphilis and malaria. People affected will invariably suffer and others, carefully watching their back , must carry on as always. 

Otherwise governments will run out of money  and their populaces out of patience.

People generally are not suicidal so let them to take a risk and decide if they want to work , shop, send kids to school, pray, party  or travel.After almost a year living with  Covid most of us have some idea about prevention.

 

 

 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, vinapu said:

There's still possibility that virus will not give up , vaccine will not be found or will be ineffective and even that people will be re-infected. Scary but not impossible.

Correct.   Although, from what is published, it seems likely that infection or vaccines will offer some improvement in resistance.  

Also, if you take the worst case scenario of vaccines not working, then eventually we're going to have to get on with life as normal.   It only really makes sense to continue with severe restrictions if countries believe a vaccine or vastly improved treatments are going to be found shortly.   

e.g. If there is no vaccine for 5 years, will countries really carry on as they are today ?     Not a chance.     

If they think a vaccine might be available in 3~4 months, keeping restrictions up might make more sense.

 

Some say nature has dealt with everything that's been thrown at us in the past.   The counter argument is that might include an element  of natural selection working on the gene pool, which would not be the preferred scenario.   

I still think some of us will be back in Thailand no later than the first quarter of 2021 (not with 100% confidence, it must be said).

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, z909 said:

Some say nature has dealt with everything that's been thrown at us in the past.   The counter argument is that might include an element  of natural selection working on the gene pool, which would not be the preferred scenario.   

 

thanks to progress in science as well as more l enlightened approach to human well being,  rights and dignity like universal health care we don't need to rely just on nature and natural selection thank  God is greatly restricted but  we are not omnipotent, incurable diseases and aging process itself are and will be with us. So while we strive to eliminate or restrict their impact we still need to learn to live with them.

Gee,  I sound like preacher but yes , I don't think in long run  we should sacrifice our freedoms in order to avoid being sick or dead . Pandemics is dream come true to autocrats everywhere who can dress up as saviors while  strengthening grip on population' s  movement and behavior ( all those tracing apps have their beneficial use but so does fertilizers and even dynamite )

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, z909 said:

I still think some of us will be back in Thailand no later than the first quarter of 2021 (not with 100% confidence, it must be said).

at least it would be nice to have a choice, go and take some  risk  or wait until sky will clear. 

If should be afforded  to business as well , open and try to make a buck on the initial trickle of tourists or wait until they will come en masse  risking losing it all.

I have good memories of my first trip  to the region soon after 9-11, half empty planes, 30$ a night 4 star hotels in the city center , half empty tourists spots. To this day I'm glad I did not listen to anybody and went ahead as planned.

[reader]

From Khaosod  English

‘Phuket Model’ Expanded Nationwide Despite Little Support

BANGKOK — Officials on Wednesday doubled down on their proposal to resume limited tourism amid the global coronavirus pandemic by expanding a vague reentry plan to cover the entire country. 

Even as experts have yet to settle their debate over the “Phuket Model” – which called for arrivals of some tourists to the southern island of Phuket – National Economic and Social Development Board sec-gen Tossaporn Sirisamphan said the plan will now be reworked to include other provinces. To avoid confusion, that is. 

“The Phuket Model is causing confusion and opposition as a result,” Tossaporn said. “Therefore, we’ve adjusted the plan to allow foreign tourists to travel at large, since some of the provinces such as Bangkok have the capability to handle foreign tourists.”

What was known as the Phuket Model will now be rebranded as “Special Tourist Visa,” he said. 

It is unclear whether the plan will have any backing, either from the government or business communities. A number of local residents, health experts, and tourism officials have spoken out against the proposal due to concerns that the coronavirus outbreak may return.

But health minister Anutin Charnvirakul was adamant the measure could go ahead; he said he already had approval from the government’s pandemic response center.

Tossaporn also said PM Prayut Chan-o-cha has given a green light to the new proposal, which will permit foreign tourists to go anywhere in the country after spending 14 days in quarantine.

“They will undergo the same measures as Thai returning from overseas,” Tossaporn  said. “After spending 14 days in quarantine and cleared of the virus, they can go anywhere as they wish.”

But officials have yet to determine tourists from which country will be allowed to come in, Tossaporn said. The final list will be decided by the tourism and foreign ministries, he added.

Tourism Authority of Thailand governor Yuthasak Supasorn said tourists holding the “Special Tourist Visa” will be permitted to stay in the country for 90 days, after which they can apply for two extensions at 90 days each.

He said the visa is intended for long stay tourists, who would spend more than average visitors.

[anddy]

ThaiGov sneaks French tourists in to test ‘Phuket model’

By Coconuts Bangkok Sep 9, 2020 | 12:07pm Bangkok time

A quartet of French men were indeed allowed into the kingdom on a chartered flight to pilot the proposed “Phuket Model” of reopening limited travel to the resort island, officials confirmed yesterday.

Though the public was kept in the dark about their visit, the island airport’s director said it was meant to test containment protocols. Both the Foreign Affairs Ministry and COVID-19 task force have acknowledged the recent visit took place but did not disclose details about the French tourists’ stay.

Phuket International Airport director Thani Chuangchu said yesterday they had already left for Cambodia. He said the men stayed two weeks at a government-approved hotel and were monitored by local health officials and a security team. He did not say if they were allowed to leave the unspecified hotel, but said there were no reports of local transmission afterward.

 

Reactions to the news were mixed, but most on either side of the issue said the government should have been transparent about the plan rather than keep it secret.

Fending off criticism, Phuket Gov. Narong Woonchiew said it was necessary to thoroughly test the protocols planned to allow a limited number of long-term tourists onto the island, where they would stay in semi-quarantine before being allowed to travel onward. Narong said the exercise would help when it comes time to implement the full program.

Set to start in October, the plan is facing possible delay due after a case of domestic transmission was found Thursday after 100 days of none detected.

https://coconuts.co/bangkok/news/thaigov-sneaks-french-tourists-in-to-test-phuket-model/

[firecat69]

21 hours ago, vinapu said:

thanks to progress in science as well as more l enlightened approach to human well being,  rights and dignity like universal health care we don't need to rely just on nature and natural selection thank  God is greatly restricted but  we are not omnipotent, incurable diseases and aging process itself are and will be with us. So while we strive to eliminate or restrict their impact we still need to learn to live with them.

Well now you really got me. You certainly are not from the USA because there is nothing close to Universal Health Care in my country which is one of the continued disgraces for supposedly the richest country in the world!!

[Guest]

9 hours ago, reader said:

 “After spending 14 days in quarantine and cleared of the virus, they can go anywhere as they wish.”

But officials have yet to determine tourists from which country will be allowed to come in, Tossaporn said. The final list will be decided by the tourism and foreign ministries, he added.

Tourism Authority of Thailand governor Yuthasak Supasorn said tourists holding the “Special Tourist Visa” will be permitted to stay in the country for 90 days, after which they can apply for two extensions at 90 days each.

Thailand is slowly inching towards something tolerable.    ie 14 Days quarantine, paired with a visa regime which, for once, encourages long stay tourists. 

Obviously they need some coaching regarding deciding which countries are eligible.    Essentially, they need to allow people in from everywhere except countries which have horrendous infection rates.  The quarantine regime is supposed to detect anyone with Covid, so it should be an effective defence.

If they only allow people in from countries with very low Covid infection rates, they will get very few visitors, as such countries tend to have tight restrictions applicable to the return leg of the journey.