'Virus policy strangling economy'

[reader]

From The Nation

Too-tight virus policy is strangling economy, experts warn 

Thailand should overcome concern of a second wave of Covid-19 and instead relax restrictions on foreign investors and tourists in order to shore up its falling economy, say a prominent investor and leading economist.

“We should not worry too much about the threat of a second wave of infections, since the first wave of Covid-19 is generating far fewer cases compared with other countries,” prominent local investor Niwes Hemvachiravarakorn said on Thursday.

Thailand has implemented tight safety measures to combat the virus, but the Covid-19 issue has two dimensions – disease control and economic activities, he said.

Thailand may need to accept a low level of cases and develop a system to handle this, he said, referring to the absence of local infections for more than 50 days and only a handful of daily imported cases.

He suggested Thailand’s hot weather may be helping to keep the infection rate low, while Thais know now how to protect themselves as almost everyone wears a face mask in public.

Niwes warned that fear of a second-wave contagion was discouraging people from resuming business activities, resulting in a slower economic recovery. In Vietnam, public life is almost back to normal, with even large gatherings for sports events now permitted, he added.

Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), is also pushing for resumption of more economic activities. 

Thailand should learn how to live with a few daily Covid cases, because policies aimed at eradicating the virus completely were having a high economic cost, he said on Facebook.

Income from foreign investment and tourism represents about 20 per cent of Thailand’s annual GDP, the economist noted. The government should focus on the “trace, test and isolate (TTI)” policy so that foreigners can be gradually welcomed back to the country, he added.

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From Bangkok Post

Tourists will trickle back 'once a virus cure is found'

The Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) is predicting the hard-hit tourism sector will start to recover once a Covid-19 vaccine is rolled out late next year.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, the Institute's research director for International Research and Advisory Service, was speaking at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) and addressed the notion that people were overreacting to the pandemic.

She said that in the first phase of the tourism recovery most visitors were likely to come from China and Asean as it was cheaper to travel within the region and it was also more friendly to them.

"We can expect more Chinese tourists in the post-Covid-19 world," she told a forum titled "Thailand's post-Covid-19 economy and the most vulnerable".

According to the TDRI, domestic tourism was already recovering but would not return to the pre-Covid-19 level [6% of GDP] due to safety and financial concerns.

At the same time, international tourism had dropped from 12% of GDP to zero.

Jonathan Head, BBC Southeast Asia correspondent and FCCT vice president, asked panellists about the level of public fear, which he said "has gone beyond anything else I have ever seen in other countries".

He also remarked on what he characterised as the government's draconian measures, including turning its back on mass tourism and even putting off travel bubbles, despite the fact that it had managed to curb the spread of the virus well.

 

[Guest]

I think the overall sentiment is about right.  

Thailand's had very few cases, even when there were large numbers of tourists coming in from places like China and Italy, back in January & February.

I don't see the sense in strangling the economy indefinitely, when there are now countries which act as potential sources of inbound tourists with low and very low levels of infection.   The risk from Taiwan, Japan, Australia etc must be very low & much lower than from the countries named above, earlier in the year.

Even certain European countries now probably only present a modest risk.

 

 

[vinapu]

I think goal of having zero infections is not even realistic until there's vaccine or most of population will get sick and gets herd immunity or virus weakens itself

[spoon]

Thai is having zero local transmission for a while already, so does vietnam. But yes, to keep it that way while the rest of the world arent is not realistic. As far as virus policy affect economy, thats up to debate. An article in NYT below says the impact is severe regardless of policy as people in general will spend less and go out less during a pandemic. In fact, those who had strict policy early has seen their economy recovering faster. Of course if your economy highly dependable of foreign tourists, it wont recover until border is open and border will not open until most countries had the virus under control. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

And what if there is no vaccines that will work against this virus? That is still a possibility.

[TotallyOz]

I have been very impressed with the way Thailand is dealing with this and I hope they continue. I feel very safe and comfortable. I realize the economy will suffer. But, I also know the paranoia that is caused when a few cases are new here and then everything that is open, will shut down again. The country is on the right path!

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, spoon said:

And what if there is no vaccines that will work against this virus? That is still a possibility.

Then there will be several North Korea style countries almost  completely locked  from outside  world  with further separation inside of countries and requirement to have a internal visa to travel for Ubon to Udon