Key behind Thailand's success vs Covid

[reader]

From National Public Radio

Universal Health Care Supports Thailand's Coronavirus Strategy

Thailand was the first country outside of China to confirm a case of coronavirus. That was back in January. Since then, while the pandemic has raged in the U.S. and Europe, Thailand has been able to control its epidemic with a caseload among the lowest in the world - just 58 deaths. Thai epidemiologists say the country's universal health care system played a major role. NPR's Malaka Gharib has more.

To explain how Thailand's Health System worked to keep the coronavirus under control, let's start with the first Thai citizen to test positive for the virus, a taxi driver. Krit Pongpirul is a professor at Chulalongkorn University Faculty of Medicine. He says the driver's route involved picking up and dropping off Chinese tourists around Bangkok.

Listen to interview or read the transcript

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/28/884458999/universal-health-care-supports-thailands-coronavirus-strategy

 

[pong]

IF that would be the explanation-about all of the countries here in EUR hard hit also have general health coverage and mostly free or as a sidebonus with any job or pension. Just remind the Brits about their Nat. Health they are so proud of. But this morning I heard the Uk is nr 3 or 4 in total deaths due to this virus in the world.

Yes, more hard hit are US and Brasil-without such a nationwide coverage, but with also much higher population.

[PeterRS]

I have read on various chat rooms several posts doubting that Thailand's covid19 figures are anything like fact.

There was an interesting clip on CNN this morning which relates specifically to Thailands success in fighting covid19 and to the article posted by reader at the start of the thread. The  article mentions the countrys army of 1 million community health workers. These are mostly not doctors and nurses, just ordinary men and women. During the dengue fever epidemic last year when Thailand suffered over 130,000 cases, the country set up this volunteer army to do checking and tracing. Mobilising the same group and more this year was therefore easy and fast. They follow up known cases as soon as they are identified and then do all the contact tracing checks. With such a large number dotted around the country, Id say this is a model for any country to adopt.

Perhaps this is also one reason why Vietnam initially got off so lightly with covid19. It suffered 320,000 dengue fever cases last year and had a similar checking and tracing army in place. Why covid19 has suddenly reappeared in Danang after almost four months of lockdown and two months of the country having no cases, we have yet to learn.

[spoon]

My theory of outbreak after months of no local transmision most likely a result of both lack of testing and rare cases of people not developing the virus to a detectable level or failure of testing to detect them even after 14 days of quarantine. Based on very early findings in wuhan, there are outlier cases of symptom not appearing up to 27 days. Lack of testing on the other hand might make this a bit harder to contained especially when contact tracing failed to find the index case or patient zero. 

[reader]

Việt Nam recorded its first COVID-19-related death today, a 70-year-old man with a number of underlying conditions. The patient died of a heart attack at Huế Central Hospital in Thừa Thiên Huế Province, where he was being treated for coronavirus.

Singapore reported 396 new COVID-19 cases today, with three infections in the community, the Ministry of Health said in a preliminary update. The vast majority of the new cases are work permit holders staying in foreign worker dormitories.

A spokesman for the Thai Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration warned today that with burgeoning Covid-19 infection rates overseas, Thailand also could not expect to remain permanently free of new local community infection. Authorities could only hope to prolong the infection-free period as long as possible, and then cope effectively with any outbreak as it occurs. 

It's becoming increasingly clear that the virus will continue to re-emerge even in countries that initially followed the most aggressive measures to suppress it.

Vietnam, like Thailand, promoted local tourism as a way of compensating for the lack of foreigners. A popular beach resort, Danang was among the locations to benefit most from the effort that brought locals from all over Vietnam to enjoy its attractions. Not surprising, in retrospect, that latent cases would emerge there.

Because Vietnam has acted immediately and aggressively, it stands a good chance of stemming the new outbreak. Nevertheless it's a stark reminder that the virus will be with us  longer than we care to think about. There's no free lunch.

 

 

 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I have read on various chat rooms several posts doubting that Thailand's covid19 figures are anything like fact.

There was an interesting clip on CNN this morning which relates specifically to Thailands success in fighting covid19 and to the article posted by reader at the start of the thread. The  article mentions the countrys army of 1 million community health workers. These are mostly not doctors and nurses, just ordinary men and women. During the dengue fever epidemic last year when Thailand suffered over 130,000 cases, the country set up this volunteer army to do checking and tracing. Mobilising the same group and more this year was therefore easy and fast. They follow up known cases as soon as they are identified and then do all the contact tracing checks. With such a large number dotted around the country, Id say this is a model for any country to adopt.

Perhaps this is also one reason why Vietnam initially got off so lightly with covid19. It suffered 320,000 dengue fever cases last year and had a similar checking and tracing army in place. Why covid19 has suddenly reappeared in Danang after almost four months of lockdown and two months of the country having no cases, we have yet to learn.

There are various reasons why places like Vietnam and Thailand could get off lightly.     Note the word could before reading further.

For example:

1 Reasonably effective government policy

2 Fiddling the data.  I have no evidence that this is happening, it's just a possibility.   Particularly in countries like Vietnam with strict control over media and Thailand with less media freedom than we are used to in the west.    On the other hand, there is evidence that (for example), the German government trusts Thai data:  https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/einreiseundaufenthalt/coronavirus

3 Widespread use of masks & hand gel   -ie good culture.   Partly down to being closer to the front line with previous epidemics.

4 High temperatures mean COVID viruses die faster

5 In the case of Vietnam, a young population.    Not so much applicable to Thailand.

6 Exposure to earlier coronaviruses.

 

As for the definition of "success", well any reasonably competent government could get good results if they prioritise reducing COVID infections at the expense of all other factors.   

ie Having lockdowns when there are almost no cases, stopping inbound travel and so on.    

So it's a success measuring only COVID.   Whether they have had the correct policy balance in Thailand is another question.  

 

 

 

[PeterRS]

16 hours ago, z909 said:

There are various reasons why places like Vietnam and Thailand could get off lightly.     Note the word could before reading further.

For example:

1 Reasonably effective government policy

2 Fiddling the data.  I have no evidence that this is happening, it's just a possibility.   Particularly in countries like Vietnam with strict control over media and Thailand with less media freedom than we are used to in the west.    On the other hand, there is evidence that (for example), the German government trusts Thai data:  https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/einreiseundaufenthalt/coronavirus

3 Widespread use of masks & hand gel   -ie good culture.   Partly down to being closer to the front line with previous epidemics.

4 High temperatures mean COVID viruses die faster

5 In the case of Vietnam, a young population.    Not so much applicable to Thailand.

6 Exposure to earlier coronaviruses.

 

As for the definition of "success", well any reasonably competent government could get good results if they prioritise reducing COVID infections at the expense of all other factors.   

ie Having lockdowns when there are almost no cases, stopping inbound travel and so on.    

So it's a success measuring only COVID.   Whether they have had the correct policy balance in Thailand is another question.  

You nicely sum up many of the comments made by others on why Thailand and some other ocuntries are not doing as well as they say. Yet the evidence is quite clear. I really think it is such a red herring to keep talking about fiddling data and fake figures which are manipulated by governments like Thailand and vietnam that people outside the countries do not like. Are you denying there is the army of about a million volunteer trackers and tracers in Thailand? I for one believe these figures more than I do those of  governments like those in the UK, USA and Brazil have clearly proven they were far worse equipped to handle a pandemic, are doing a disastrous job of tracking and tracing and have been seen to try to mask their own true figures. 

Vietnam borders China and had no deaths until recently. Do you believe that is a lie? Thailand had the first case outside China. It was someone from Wuhan and it admitted this fact very early on. If the government had wanted to cover this up I am sure there were dozens of ways they could have done so. They admitted it. Again until recently Hong Kong had few cases and few deaths. Are those also lies? Taiwan has been one of the best countries in the world in coping with the virus. Are their reported figures fake? You probably think not only because that is a functioning democracy LOL

As for the virus dying faster in hot weather, tell that to people living in Florida. It has been proved to be untrue. CHeck the WHO website.

Any thought that young people are less likely to suffer or die from the virus has also been disproved. 

[TotallyOz]

I feel safe in Thailand.

I feel the government has handled it well. I doubt we know all the details. But, I doubt we do from ANY country.

Lots of myths about the virus that are disproved and will be in the future. It is dangerous for most of us at our age and if you are smart you will protect yourself in any way possible.

Do NOT ever look to America for guidance on this issue. It is the worst example. There is all about politics and an upcoming campaign.

[captainmick]

3 hours ago, PeterRS said:

As for the virus dying faster in hot weather, tell that to people living in Florida. It has been proved to be untrue. CHeck the WHO website.

Any thought that young people are less likely to suffer or die from the virus has also been disproved. 

Hot weather itself may not make the virus die faster but it does substantially reduce the spread.  Transmission is proven to be greater indoors and in countries which have a cold winter and warmer summer, the population spends considerably more time outdoors in warmer weather so the spread of the virus slows and this effect is boosted by UV light which kills the virus.

Younger people will still catch the virus but are less likely to suffer badly or die as is shown clearly in the statistics which are heavily skewed towards the elderly and those with underlying health issues regarding deaths

[anddy]

On 7/31/2020 at 1:30 PM, PeterRS said:

[...]

During the dengue fever epidemic last year when Thailand suffered over 130,000 cases, the country set up this volunteer army to do checking and tracing. [...]

Perhaps this is also one reason why Vietnam initially got off so lightly with covid19. It suffered 320,000 dengue fever cases last year and had a similar checking and tracing army in place. [...]

Forgive me for maybe splitting hairs here, but I have a rather factual question: why would a Dengue epidemic require tracing? As in contact tracing? Wouldn't make sense as Dengue is not contagious but mosquito-borne and transmitted. Or is it tracing as in trying to find the mosquito breeding hotspots? Of course it is clear to me that that same army (dengue "tracing" or not) can be used for highly relevant Covid-tracing. Just trying to understand the Dengue relevance. 

[Londoner]

Possibly because particular places have standing water- a pond for example- that  encourages  the dengue-infested mozzies to multiply and spread. For example, an area near Jomtien's market was identified when there was an outbreak last year. Once a particular breeding-ground is identified it can be sprayed.

[speedoo1]

On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2020 at 8:30 AM, PeterRS said:

 Why covid19 has suddenly reappeared in Danang after almost four months of lockdown and two months of the country having no cases, we have yet to learn.

My friends in VN suspect that it relates to human trafficking, i.e. people illegally entering VN from neighbouring countries (being organized by Vietnamese and with huge profits). I asked from which countries such illegal immigrants would come from, but I received no answer. But the neighbouring countries of VN are well known so you can do your math

[Guest]

On 8/1/2020 at 4:42 AM, PeterRS said:

Are you denying there is the army of about a million volunteer trackers and tracers in Thailand?

No I am not.   Have you read that anywhere in my post ?           

 

On 8/1/2020 at 4:42 AM, PeterRS said:

Taiwan has been one of the best countries in the world in coping with the virus. Are their reported figures fake? You probably think not only because that is a functioning democracy LOL

I haven't even mentioned Taiwan.    

I also haven't said Thai figures are fake and I haven't said that Vietnam figures are fake.    What I would say is we cannot rule out some fiddling of the figures.

The point I want to make is that if press freedom is severely restricted as in Vietnam and slightly restricted as in Thailand, IF these countries WERE fiddling the figures, WHO would investigate and gather the data to challenge the government ?     

In a country like Taiwan, with democracy and press freedom, I would be much more confident than in Vietnam.    

That's not the same as saying Vietnam has fiddled the figures, but if they had decided to do that, we would hardly expect to see a "Panorama" style documentary exposing the issue there.

So I'm not saying they have fiddled the figures.    I would say we cannot rule it out without independent bodies to investigate.    Quite different. 

 

On 8/1/2020 at 4:42 AM, PeterRS said:

Any thought that young people are less likely to suffer or die from the virus has also been disproved. 

Please provide evidence to back up your claim.   

Almost every piece of data published anywhere in the world shows that the covid death rate increases with age.    Here's data for England.

[fedssocr]

here in the US young people (20-40) are being infected at high rates in the states having big outbreaks right now. Deaths are less frequent but not unknown in that younger age group.

I see that Thailand is allowing large gatherings. Concert venues and bars are operating like before the pandemic if my FB is showing the norm. Packed clubs with people drinking and singing, etc. I won't be hugely surprised if there's a spike like seems to be happening again in most countries.

[PeterRS]

5 hours ago, z909 said:

I also haven't said Thai figures are fake and I haven't said that Vietnam figures are fake.    What I would say is we cannot rule out some fiddling of the figures.

I hesitate to question such a distinguished poster as z909. But with respect that does seem a rather Trump like comment. Do not state the figures are wrong, but throw out the suggestion that they might be wrong because of governments that are not strictly democratic. When Thailand and Vietnam are two countries dependant on international tourism for a big chunk of their GDP I reckon there is even greater reason to submit accurate figures. Once tourism reopens if even one group of tourists become infected because of transmission from locals, I can imagine the international media will not be far off that story. Then that could have an even more severe impact on future tourism.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I hesitate to question such a distinguished poster as z909. But with respect that does seem a rather Trump like comment. Do not state the figures are wrong, but throw out the suggestion that they might be wrong because of governments that are not strictly democratic. When Thailand and Vietnam are two countries dependant on international tourism for a big chunk of their GDP I reckon there is even greater reason to submit accurate figures. Once tourism reopens if even one group of tourists become infected because of transmission from locals, I can imagine the international media will not be far off that story. Then that could have an even more severe impact on future tourism.

In my original post, I list some examples of reasons why Thailand and Vietnam could do well with Covid.      

All the points are correct, but you choose to start a silly argument.

If you really must choose to be hostile, please make sure you are commenting on exactly what I have written.  Don't question a few points which I have not even written & don't twist what I have written in order to sustain this disruptive attack.   

 

Now you compare me with Trump, which is quite an insult & rather unnecessary.   Before doing that, perhaps you should have benchmarked your own reply against Trump.    For instance accusing me of writing things I haven't written and also adding a few crazy ideas of your own, then dropping them when your claims are disproven by data.  (e.g. death rate v age).

It would be preferable to get back to the topic.