When can I go to Thailand again?

[ggobkk]

23 hours ago, vinapu said:

If they don't want us, I guess we just won't go spending our money on new sofa bed instead.

But if looks that things are cooling down a bit all over so quite likely another pool in month or two will bring more user friendly results  specially when everybody will sit down calculator in hand  and counts calmly damage closing economy brought on households and national budgets.

I agree that there will be other polls...but the new outbreak in Beijing will make every country recalculate their welcome.  The rumor was that China was under consideration as a low risk country similar to Vietnam.  

I'm thinking of new chairs rather than a sofa bed...

[spoon]

Lets be honest, low risk country is one part of the equation but the major part of their decision is which country that will brings the most money, which is why singapore is also included while they are having hundreds of new cases daily. Cant blame them as the main reason to open up border is money, so if you are going to take risk, u want the reward to justify the risk. 

That said, this is all temporary steps taken until vaccine is found. After that, most likely the only requirement will be you have to be vaccinated to travel. 

[Londoner]

The efforts to find  effective vaccinations for MERS and SARS were unsuccessful. It may be that better treatment may be the best hope. 

[spoon]

Agree that they still didnt find vaccine for either sars or mers, though infection rate arent nearly as high as covid and sars practically gone on its own before the vaccine were developed. One can argue there isnt a vaccine because they dont have enough motivation to find one. Neither of the two virus have shutdown the economy and borders of almost 90% of the countries in the world nor have any of the two registered death in the hundred thousands and cases in the millions. But then again, certain infectious disease still dont have vaccine such as HIV, Hep C, and for HIV, the prevention switched gear to prevenatative medicine instead of vaccine.

Treatment is definitely a more urgent and pressing issue to tackle now though. While treatment alone wont help curbing the infection, if it can significantly bring the death count down, its worth pursuing. Some of HIV treatment drugs have now been used as PREP, and certainly if that can be applied to Covid-19 as well, those high risk group will also benefit from this. Vaccine is ideal for us to go back to the normal though.

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, spoon said:

Vaccine is ideal for us to go back to the normal though.

tell this to legions of those who are already protesting this vaccine well before it's even developed. ( as for me,  I'll be first in line to get a jab )

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Chinese tourists still hindered

The Tourism Authority of Thailand's (TAT) China office is tempering enthusiasm that many Chinese tourists will visit in the second half this year as travel restrictions ease, as low Chinese purchasing power for outbound trips persists and an uptick in new infections emerges in Beijing.

The surging unemployment rate of 6% or 27 million on the mainland remains a challenge as Thailand eagerly awaits its No.1 source market.

Lerdchai Wangtrakoondee, director of TAT's Shanghai office, said after temporarily adopting new hygienic practices for months, the situation in China is returning to normal, although outbound tour operators are still on ice.

He said the actual unemployment rate is expected to be more severe as the figures only count urban areas.

"Spending power is weak and the cost of travel will be higher because of lower capacity in tourism services, such in fewer flight seats, so Thai tourism operators should be aware the market will be hobbled for some time," said Mr Lerdchai.

He said Thailand will face tough competition from rivals eager to lure Chinese tourists back, led by the Maldives, which plans to lift travel restrictions to all nationalities in July.

Singapore already opened its border to Chinese business travellers early this month.

The TAT predicts two scenarios for the Chinese market. The best case is tourists will return to Thailand during Golden Week or the national holiday in October.

In the worst case, Thailand has to wait until Chinese New Year in 2021, which will fall in February.

 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, spoon said:

Agree that they still didnt find vaccine for either sars or mers, though infection rate arent nearly as high as covid and sars practically gone on its own before the vaccine were developed. One can argue there isnt a vaccine because they dont have enough motivation to find one. Neither of the two virus have shutdown the economy and borders of almost 90% of the countries in the world nor have any of the two registered death in the hundred thousands and cases in the millions. But then again, certain infectious disease still dont have vaccine such as HIV, Hep C, and for HIV, the prevention switched gear to prevenatative medicine instead of vaccine.

There are more attempts at finding a COVID vaccine than SARS or MERs, as COVID is more prevalent in wealthy countries with a significant pharmaceutical industry and some of the "developing" countries now have significant pharmaceutical industries.   So there's a strong motivation to find a vaccine and more capability to develop one.

Also, the COVID virus apparently mutates quite slowly, whereas HIV mutates rather rapidly, so some of the experts think it should be much easier to develop a COVID vaccine.

 

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

tell this to legions of those who are already protesting this vaccine well before it's even developed. ( as for me,  I'll be first in line to get a jab )

I'll be next in line.  Also, if it facilitates my next trip to Thailand & the price is sensible, I'll be straight off to a private clinic for the jab, if the NHS is slow to offer one.  

However, if I were in the US, I be wary of any vaccine that's approved only by the Trump administration.

[Londoner]

And I'll there too....as long as the vaccination is validated in Thailand. With all the research taking place all over the world, I foresee competing claims getting in the way.

[anddy]

3 hours ago, Londoner said:

And I'll there too....as long as the vaccination is validated in Thailand. With all the research taking place all over the world, I foresee competing claims getting in the way.

competing claims, that hasn't occurred to me, but now that you say it, yes it's a worry in this crazy world. Instead they should be happy that there are (hopefully) multiple vaccines avaiable at the same time, speeding up the global vaccination process.

Incidentally, even Thailand is working on it's own vaccine! 

[anddy]

10 hours ago, spoon said:

and sars practically gone on its own before the vaccine were developed. One can argue there isnt a vaccine because they dont have enough motivation to find one.

the disappearance of a virus actually not only leads to the evaporation of the motivation, but also makes it impossible to develop one. Virus trials work by giving the new shot to x number of people, then releasing those people in the "wild" of the general population and see if they get infected or not, and by what percentage the infection rate is lower than in the control group. Now, if you don't have any virus out there, no such clinical trial is possible. This is a problem even for Corona/Covid in some countries developing a vaccine as they are getting the virus under control. Trials will have to be moved to countries where it is still widespread or even increasing. Fortunately for the vaccine development, unfortunately for the affected populations, there is no shortage of such places at the moment.

An alternative method would be so-called "challenge trials", but I don't think they will go that route for ethical reasons.

[spoon]

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

 

Seems like there are headways on the treatment drug that cuts the death rate up to a third in those on ventilator and a fifth of those using oxygen.

[AlexThompson]

From the Babylon Facebook page.  I'm so depressed. 

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, AlexThompson said:

From the Babylon Facebook page.  I'm so depressed. 

sounds like fun, just the same like putting one hand in the boiling water while petting cobra with other one

[Londoner]

I understood that Babylon was soon to close ( I read this somewhere before the advent of the coronavirus) and assumed that it would never re-open. Accordingly, I'm rather pleased with this latest news and, while I have no desire to go there under these conditions,  I  am hoping that it will one day be a sauna again. To be honest, unless I need to be in Bangkok for a flight, a visit to Babylon is the only reason I stay a couple of days there. 

[reader]

From Khaosod English

International Flights May Resume By September: Aviation Chief

BANGKOK — International flights are likely to resume as late as September, a top civilian aviation regulator said Wednesday.

Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand director Chula Sukmanop said none of the airlines he met had expressed interest in resuming their international flights by next month, when the order shutting down the country’s airspace is set to expire. He attributed the reluctance to uncertainty over the government’s policies on international travels.

“I believe international flights will resume this September,” Chula said. “All of the airlines could not assess the demand for air traveling. They have to wait and see the situation by the end of this month.”

Under the new regulations, air carriers are no longer required to leave empty seats between passengers, but passengers are still needed to wear face masks throughout the journey.

Food and beverages may only be served on flights exceeding two hours and they must be prepared in a sealed container. Airlines are also required to prepare a space in the cabin to separate sick passengers from others, Chula said.

Domestic flights were previously allowed to charge up almost twice the original fare since they had to leave many seats empty to ensure social distancing. The civil aviation chief expected the fares to be lower, thanks to the recent measures easing restrictions on traveling.

[Tundra88]

9 hours ago, AlexThompson said:

From the Babylon Facebook page.  I'm so depressed. 

Strange, given that other saunas are now open

[anddy]

On 6/17/2020 at 1:11 AM, anddy said:

An alternative method would be so-called "challenge trials", but I don't think they will go that route for ethical reasons.

apparently, there is a rush of volunteers to do just that:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-18/volunteers-are-lining-up-to-be-infected-with-the-coronavirus

 

[spoon]

Sauna mania and R3 sauna will open as well. I wonder if they will also follow babylon and only open the gym and pool only. 

[reader]

This is the latest--and certainly not the last--of reopening travel proposal wheeled out by various government agencies. It targets selected resorts but ignores the the Big Mango where most travelers (well heeled and otherwise) want to go and where most of the unemployed and underemployed working classes reside.

From Bangkok Post

Thailand to turn away from mass tourism, target the wealthy

The government's tourism-revival strategy is to target big spenders seeking privacy and social distancing in the Covid-19 era, rather than try to attract a large number of visitors, according to Tourism Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn.

The pandemic provides an opportunity to reset the sector, which had become reliant on Chinese groups and backpackers, he said in an interview with Bloomberg News.

Once the country’s borders are reopened and so-called travel bubbles are agreed upon, marketing efforts will be geared toward wealthier individuals who want holidays with minimal risks.

The government will initially allow a small number of arrivals, such as some business executives and medical tourists. It is also working with the travel industry to identify and invite individuals in target demographics, which will probably include previous visitors to luxury resorts in the islands of Phuket, Samui, Phangan and Phi Phi, the minister said.

Phuket is “a prototype” because it has all the needed facilities.

People may be required to pass Covid-19 screenings before traveling and upon arriving, choose a single resort island and remain for a minimum period of time.

The “high-end visitors” will be able to travel freely while they’re on the island and be allowed to leave for home or other destinations in Thailand once the minimum 14 days have passed. The country plans to court such visitors, possibly during the winter months of November-February when European and American travelers seek out warmer climates, Mr Phiphat said.

“One person can easily spend as much as five by staying at the finest hotels,” he said, adding that full and free travel should become a “thing of the past.”

Mr Phiphat said Thailand sees the crisis as an opportunity to address problems that existed before the pandemic, including over-crowding at some beaches and temples and environmental destruction.

In the quiet months without foreign travelers, sea turtles have returned to lay eggs on Thai beaches, pink dolphins have been seen frolicking with fishermen and manatees swam to shore to snack on sea grass, Phiphat said.

“If we don’t use this chance to create the most benefit for the industry, Thailand will lose out,” he said. “This is an opportunity to reset the entire tourism system.”

[vinapu]

42 minutes ago, reader said:

 

....according to Tourism Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn.

 

“One person can easily spend as much as five by staying at the finest hotels,” he said, adding that full and free travel should become a “thing of the past.”

 

no doubt  owners of all that empty hotels and still unemployed scores of waiters, hawkers, guides and drivers  are impressed with such illustrious strategy and it's promoter ( my underscore)

[spoon]

All i can say is wishful thinking. Yup, its easy to find wealthy tourist willing to stay in expensive hotel for 14 days before allowed to travel elsewhere in the country. Isnt that just similar to being quarantine, except its in a bigger area instead. Im sure there will be those who might go though but i doubt thatll really save thailand tourism.

[reader]

It’s wishful thinking indeed.

Thailand’s approach to restoring international travel has been disjointed, confusing and often contradictory.  At least five agencies have proffered plans, all with slightly different requirements based on negotiated travel bubbles with other countries. Even if one succeeded in getting the PM’s blessing, it would not even come close restoring the jobs of the massively unemployed in the hospitality and entertainment industry or the many others who worked in associated sectors (transportation, retail sales, etc).

Think about this. There are 50 international air carriers that fly into Thailand (according to Skyscanner). Imagine the logistical complexity of negotiating travel bubbles on that scale.

What is needed is a simple solution that satisfies the major concerns of all parties (Thailand, air carriers, and nations those flights are departing from and returning to). So here’s my plan:

The airlines -- Each airline must agree to test all passengers at the point of and day of departure. The cost of the test (about $100) is added to the cost of ticket. Tickets could be marketed as conditionally refundable, less cost of test and an administrative fee only if passenger fails the test.

This guarantees that all those passengers entering Thailand have been tested and do not require quarantine on arrival.

Transit airports (if applicable) – This would satisfy concerns of airports through which the passengers transit en route.

Thailand –   Thailand receives passengers tested within 24 hours of departure (and not the 72 hours that are required in all current Thai plans under consideration).

As for insurance against Covid costs of a passenger who contracts the virus in country, Thailand would impose a health insurance surcharge (3000 bht ?) that would be tacked onto inbound flights. That would preclude the need for additional coverage that passengers would have to purchase prior to departure.

Thailand could, of course, opt to waive the above requirements on ASEAN (and select other) nations it believes poses no threat from Covid 19.

Nations receiving returning passengers – Thailand would agree to test, at point of departure, all returning passengers. That should satisfy nations the passengers are returning to along with any transit airports en route.

These conditions would eliminate the need for negotiating individual bubbles and they would eliminate uncertainty at the point of arrival in Thailand. Passengers would be free to go where they wish and not confined to locations they don't care to visit. And--most important to Thailand--is restores jobs for legions of the unemployed without taking on added risk.

The total additional cost would be in the vicinity of $200 per ticket, a small price to pay for the convenience.

[DivineMadman]

Anyone who is reading the news expecting a government announcement now -- or in the near future -- of any sort of international travel plan that will get Thai tourism back to the old normal or anything even approximating the old normal soon is a bit like Charlie Brown asking Lucy to hold the football for him.  (Cartoon below). Expect frustration and disappointment.

As much as we may think tourism is the most important thing to Thailand, it's not.  The usual number for GDP international tourism is roughly 12%, and roughly 6-7% for domestic tourism.  That leaves roughly 88% non-tourism.  That 12% International tourism is juicy and sexy and fun for us -- and 12% is nothing to scoff at -- but it is by its nature much riskier as far as COVID-19 is concerned.  The 88% non--tourism is more important, by far.  The Thai government, and the Vietnamese government, and the Laos government, etc., etc., have to look to overall safety of their people and to their economies overall.  Another serious wave of COVID-19 could well mean another shut down of construction and of the factories, etc.  And that would be bad.  

It is eminently reasonable for governments to be exceedingly cautious as far as opening their borders is concerned.  I don't think one can truly, fairly say that the Thai or Vietnamese (or Australian or New Zealand) governments are being unreasonably cautious.  We are less than three months from the global shutdown because of COVID-19.  There is no vaccine.  It has been brought under control successfully in some places, but not in many other places.  It is still a global pandemic, getting worse in many places.

Ironically, it has been brought under control in Thailand, but we don't seem to be showing respect for the Thai government's approach to COVID-19.  I confess I find that baffling.  In the same way that we can be against police brutality in the U.S. and still pro-police, we can decry all the many legit failings of Uncle Tu and his government, but also give Thailand a "win" on COVID-19.  

Also, the recent polls taken in Thailand have shown (1) the majority of the Thai people are still very concerned about COVID-19 and (2) the vast majority of the Thai people do not want the country to rush to open the gates to international tourists.  I haven't come across any suggestions that these polls were rigged or are inaccurate.  Thus, another thing that we can do is give a nod of respect to the sentiments expressed of the Thai people in these polls.  (The 30% who want the tourists back may well be the 30% employed in the tourism sector, but the 70% saying don't rush can have their voices heard as well.)

If there's wisdom in crowds, one might notice that Thailand is not alone in still trying (struggling) to come to terms international travel in the age of COVID-19.  At this point I'm not aware of any government that has said "here are the easy answers." 

Of course I can't speak for anyone else, but I think I feel as bad as many here about not being able to get back to Thailand when I want.  I'm paying rent on a condo I can't use and I certainly miss my friends, etc.  And daily reading of the rumor mill is excruciating.  In part this is because it is usually imprecise and occasionally downright inaccurate - as all sorts of ideas are floated in public.  Maybe it would be easier if it was all kept secret until there was a final government-approved plan.  Compared with many neighboring where there is no such openness, I keep coming back to the mantra:  "wait until there's an actual plan."  Because the openness and [comparative] press freedom is a good thing.

I personally do not expect a plan that will be particularly "open to tourists" until October at the earliest.  It's disappointing, but because I honestly and truly am able to say to myself, "OK.  It may not be what I want, but I understand there is reasonable decision making that goes into the decisions, even if I disagree,  ... so be it."   If I were in the government I absolutely would be advising the government to go slow-slow-slow until October.  The way to protect the high season is to be cautious from now until then.  

If there are "low hanging fruit" of rich people who will happily spend a week or two at a resort on an island, where the risks can be contained geographically, then go for it.  And if they do go for it, I certainly won't be criticizing them for taking only this small, cautious step.  But broad-based travel now?  The world isn't ready.  

Today's English language press briefing in Thailand gave the astonishing statistic that currently there are about 10,000 people in quarantine in Thailand.  I think it's worth letting that sink in before we wonder why the government isn't rushing to open the gates.  

YES, this is hard on the many people employed in the tourism sector.  Each month I give a bit of the money that I might otherwise have spent on "entertainment" to charities in Thailand that I've posted about previously:  SWING (direct help to sex workers) and Duang Prateep Foundation and COVID Thailand Aid.  Highly recommended.

 

[reader]

47 minutes ago, DivineMadman said:

Anyone who is reading the news expecting a government announcement now -- or in the near future -- of any sort of international travel plan that will get Thai tourism back to the old normal or anything even approximating the old normal soon is a bit like Charlie Brown asking Lucy to hold the football for him.  (Cartoon below). Expect frustration and disappointment.

Could not agree with you any more on this count.

50 minutes ago, DivineMadman said:

The usual number for GDP international tourism is roughly 12%, and roughly 6-7% for domestic tourism.  That leaves roughly 88% non-tourism. 

Point of clarification:

Source: Royal Thai Embassy, Washington D.C.

Based on its trends analysis, the Ministry of Tourism has forecast that 41.1 million people will visit Thailand in 2019, and they will spend over $70 billion during their stays. Direct receipts from tourism contribute about 12 percent to Thailand’s gross domestic product, and indirect revenues push the figure closer to 20 percent.

https://thaiembdc.org/2019/02/04/thailand-sets-new-tourism-record-with-over-38-million-arrivals/

55 minutes ago, DivineMadman said:

Today's English language press briefing in Thailand gave the astonishing statistic that currently there are about 10,000 people in quarantine in Thailand.  I think it's worth letting that sink in before we wonder why the government isn't rushing to open the gates. 

If (according to the report in The Nation today) Thailand has now reached 25 days without a domestic case, and all five the new positive patients were returnees from Saudi Arabia, who could possibly be among the 10,000 still in quarantine?  I agree that's a troubling and seemingly contradictory indicator.

I join you in finding the government's continual leakage of plan proposals excruciating. But it is, after all, multiple government officials who are releasing this stuff. That gives any one the right to be critical. And maybe that's just their intent: run a plan up the flagpole and gauge the response.

 

 

[vinapu]

4 hours ago, reader said:

 

The total additional cost would be in the vicinity of $200 per ticket, a small price to pay for the convenience.

while I agree about additional cost being reasonable, I can't see any thing convenient will all that testing and waiting for results ( How long  ? where? ) 

Are test results  available immediately ? honest question as as don't  follow covid news much know because I live near airport and I don't see much traffic there and until I do all it's academic for me.

I see only  three workable solutions :

vaccine is developed or

disease will mellow by itself like SARS did or

governments, public and travellers will decide   to start taking a chance and go back to normal as much as possible,  most possible outcome IMNSHO.

Where I 'm we are still under partial lockdown, all the same like  week ago ,there are new cases and new deaths unfortunately. Even weather is the same, sunny and balmy. But streets look completely different today than last Friday. Then empty with occasional , mostly masked pedestrian. Today almost normally crowded and at least half unmasked.

Yes, we may be acting irresponsibly but societies are like people, when chocked they can breathe only that long, after that they either release themselves or die slow and painful death, virus or not. 

It's why soi 4 was well patronized last night as per reports.