Can the world oldest profession survive social distancing?

[spoon]

Came across this article when wondering about the fate of our favorite boys after reading a different article about porn industry adapting to the situation. 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/24/us/sex-workers-coronavirus-intl/index.htm

Don't kiss. Tell clients to wash their hands before they touch you. Wear a mask. Avoid face-to-face positions. And even: Put on a nurse costume and pull out a thermometer -- if his temperature is normal, make it part of the game. If he has a fever, end the session.

These are real tips that advocacy groups and health authorities around the world are sharing in the age of coronavirus, hoping to protect workers in the vast and often overlooked sex trade. Armchair advice would be to stop all so-called "full service" sex work altogether, but as UNAIDS warned in April, many sex workers are being forced to weigh what's safe against what will put food on the table.

An old economics axiom claims that investments in "vice" and "sin" like gambling, alcohol, drugs and sex trades weather economic downturns well, because people turn to them whether they're sad or happy. Some vices are even thought to be countercyclical, rising when economy takes a nosedive.

[DivineMadman]

SWING has come up with advice for sex workers in the COVID-19 era.  Some of the recommendations were briefly mentioned during a recent Foreign Correspondents Club program on the current sex worker scene (available online).  They include practical steps, such as requiring the client to take a shower before getting down to business and while the client is showering spray the bed with a disinfectant spray, etc.  I can't remember if the client is supposed to wear a mask.  

The president of SWING made the point that sex workers are terrified of getting COVID-19 (for good reason) and they are trying to educate the sex workers and "empower" them to insist on the new-normal COVID-19 safe sex.

 

 

[spoon]

How many of them will follow and insisted client to follow it? Especially when its tough time, client pools is super low, and risking losing a client is a huge risk. Showering helps but if the client is already infected, that wont do much. Kissing is out of question, BJ, nipple licking, all carries high risks of infection. For many, these restriction is a deal breaker. Unless you will be happy with just hand job and maybe only one or two safer position for sex. 

[DivineMadman]

10 minutes ago, spoon said:

How many of them will follow and insisted client to follow it? Especially when its tough time, client pools is super low, and risking losing a client is a huge risk. Showering helps but if the client is already infected, that wont do much. Kissing is out of question, BJ, nipple licking, all carries high risks of infection. For many, these restriction is a deal breaker. Unless you will be happy with just hand job and maybe only one or two safer position for sex. 

Personally I think it's great that what SWING is trying to do is great.  (And if the medical professionals at SWING think there is an advantage to showering, why be down on that?  And, it's just a shower?????  LOLs.  Even small things that can help - let's give'm that.)

[spoon]

Yup, no questions any hygenic practice helps. The sexual services itself is actually high risk, so normally one would advice to steer away from it. But if you need to do it, as in no choice since they need to make a living, a guideline is a good thing to have to reduce the risk. By how much, no one knows. But the sex workers, they are at a disadvantage regardless. If they are desperate enough to risk the pandemic to work, they are also might not have a choice to practise those suggestion if the client dont want to. 

I guess the best ideal case for our boys is to have one long term client who they stay with or who can sponsor them exclusively. Some are in this position already, so those boys are set for now.

[DivineMadman]

7 minutes ago, spoon said:

If they are desperate enough to risk the pandemic to work, they are also might not have a choice to practise those suggestion if the client dont want to. 

What SWING is trying to do is to tell the sex workers that they have "the power" to say no, and the information to back it up.

It's like barebacking.  Sure, there are customers who will insist on it and some sex workers will go along because they need the money.  Can't have any respect the customers who do that and can only feel sorry for the sex workers who go along.  

[vinapu]

question can be easily reversed

can sex workers customers survive social distancing ?

Sex workers may be non-symptomatic carriers, appearing even to themselves perfectly healthy and yet carry virus.

I guess both sides will be taking chances. 

I always say that my best guy would be one I gladly off just for hand holding session .Did not happen yet but who knows, perhaps mine ( and his) time is coming ?

[Guest]

"Can the world oldest profession survive social distancing?"

I'll take into account the "Lindy Effect" applies here and sooner or later, they will be operating as normal.       

The Lindy Effect is the idea that the older something is, the longer it’s likely to be around in the future.    For instance, paper is likely to outlive the iPad.

 

11 hours ago, DivineMadman said:

The president of SWING made the point that sex workers are terrified of getting COVID-19

In Thailand, I still reckon they should be more concerned about HIV than COVID-19.    

The majority of sex workers are under 30 and in good shape, so if they are free from HIV and they catch COVID, their death rate is something like 0.2%.    The ones with HIV would be right to be worried about COVID-19.

According to World Meters, there are currently just over 100 active Covid cases in Thailand.    Even if we multiply by 10, say 1000, that's a very small percentage of the Thai population with COVID-19, 0.0014%.      

Assuming 365 clients a year, the probability of our non HIV+ worker dying from COVID-19 is about 0.001%.    Even if I adjust it up 5x for a more risky than normal behaviour profile of the clients, it's still low.     Who worries about that in their 20s ?

Meanwhile, Thailand has loads of road traffic accidents and still they choose not to wear helmets on motorcycles etc etc.      I think prostitution will be back to normal in under 12 months. 

[Vessey]

11 hours ago, vinapu said:

question can be easily reversed

can sex workers customers survive social distancing ?

Sex workers may be non-symptomatic carriers, appearing even to themselves perfectly healthy and yet carry virus.

I guess both sides will be taking chances. 

I always say that my best guy would be one I gladly off just for hand holding session .Did not happen yet but who knows, perhaps mine ( and his) time is coming ?

Almost all sexual activity requires intimacy of sorts and lays every one involved open to a level of risk.

That has always been the case; from the risk of transmitting the common cold, to any number of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV. Now we have to add Corvid19 to that list.

We were all prepared to face those risks before Corvid19; showers, mouth-wash and condoms notwithstanding. Once this initial surge of the virus subsides, even though the virus will remain potentially active within populations, will those risks be sunstantially greater? 

Boys in need of money will absorb those risks I am sure; at least most probably will, so it seems to me more of a question of will we absorb those same risks?

Of far greater concern, for me at least, will be the risk of the flights and their re-circulated air, and prolonged close proximity to hundreds of other passengers - I think that will determine when I next try and visit Pattaya, rather than what happens when I get there.

[DivineMadman]

13 minutes ago, Vessey said:

Almost all sexual activity requires intimacy of sorts and lays every one involved open to a level of risk.

That has always been the case; from the risk of transmitting the common cold, to any number of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV. Now we have to add Corvid19 to that list.

We were all prepared to face those risks before Corvid19; showers, mouth-wash and condoms notwithstanding. Once this initial surge of the virus subsides, even though the virus will remain potentially active within populations, will those risks be sunstantially greater? 

Boys in need of money will absorb those risks I am sure; at least most probably will, so it seems to me more of a question of will we absorb those same risks?

Of far greater concern, for me at least, will be the risk of the flights and their re-circulated air, and prolonged close proximity to hundreds of other passengers - I think that will determine when I next try and visit Pattaya, rather than what happens when I get there.

I agree.  Each person will have to make really hard decisions about how he assesses the risks of travel and what to do and how at the time, especially in light of his own risk "profile."  

I suppose the main point is that we should also respect each other person's decisions regarding that - including the sex workers - and not try to pressure them or dismiss their concerns.  So it's a just another little thing to be thoughtful of.  That's all.

[spoon]

8 hours ago, z909 said:

  The majority of sex workers are under 30 and in good shape, so if they are free from HIV and they catch COVID, their death rate is something like 0.2%

 Who worries about that in their 20s ?

Seems like there is a growing trend of young patients (25-49) suffering severe/critical condition and higher death rates amongst developing countries (brazil (5% of the death), mexico (25% of the death), india (50% for death are youbger than 60) and of course the risk on young children developing kawasaki like diseases too. While it was earlier seems to be affecting the old and those with underlying condition worst, seems like the playing field (or killing field?) Is now level up. There is a lot more unknown with the virus or maybe the virus is evolving and mutating. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-coronavirus-young-people-developing-world-2020-5?amp

Sadly, like the main article shared in first post, and as pointed out by divinemadmen, boys who are desperate might still take the risk. And the main article also pointed out an assumption that the customer who are a risk taker, might also taking risks on other high risk behaviour, like barebacking, chem sex, etc and might entice the desperate boys with money to fet their way. Yup, it is disrespectful and taking advantage of the poor and desperate boys but such is the sad reality. 

Btw, in another article, it says the death rate in brazil for people below 50 is 15% instead of 5%. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-killing-young-developing-world/2020/05/22/f76d83e8-99e9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html?outputType=amp

[DivineMadman]

And the long-term consequences of the disease are only just beginning to be studied, and there are a lot of depressing reports about that.  

The people who think it can't affect them or that it's "just like the flu" are the ones who can become super-spreaders.  That's true for both customers and sex workers.  And, what the local guys seem to grasp more readily than many others is that it's not just about them, it's about the 10 people that they can infect, and so on.  I think that's something that is more natural for the local guys to be aware of because of the long-standing culture of wearing a mask -- to protect other people when you might not be feeling well.  Sadly, many Americans don't seem to be able to grasp this. (I won't comment on other nationalities.) 

When the tourists return, it is inevitable that some people with COVID-19 will get into the country.  Probably the same will be true for guys coming back from the provinces or the surrounding countries to work in the bars, etc.  I don't think anyone doubts that.  The hope is that with rigorous screening and contact tracing if cases do arise, the numbers can be kept low.  It's also up to everyone to do his little bit to help.  But Thailand is not going to be a COVID-19-free bubble.  

Admittedly, I have no idea how it's all going to work out practically.  Easy to provide fresh clean sheets and towels (and wash them after any guest leaves).  Will the scent of disinfectant start becoming something I associate with a sexual romp?  Should we all get those temp. reading guns and check each other for fevers before getting naked?  

Even if a guy has brushed his teeth and used mouthwash,  I swear I can usually taste the pad krapao he had for dinner, so I'm not so much a fan of kissing.  Easy to give that up.  My favorite sexual position(s) don't involve face-to-face, so that's a win for me.  If someone tells me we have to wear masks, well - if all those doctor visit fantasy porn or strangely-alluring porn vids of twinks having sex wearing dog masks have taught me anything, it's that it's still possible to have a good time with a mask.  I'm an open-minded chap and willing to learn.    [I truly hope it doesn't come to that.].  I wonder if the blow-job bars will install plastic partitions, or will glory holes become the newest old thing?

I can't decide whether a brothel bar or massage shop is likely to be safer than some random guy off of hornet.  The better massage shops I expect will have pretty serious cleaning regimens, but higher volume, of course.  I expect shops and the bars will be screening for temperature and keeping an eye on the health of the guys who work there.  

 

 

[reader]

Since I left Bangkok in the second week of March, my thinking about this has evolved a lot. I wore a facemask for the first time during my taxi ride to the airport and on the flights home (more out of courtesy to the flight attendants than worries of contracting the virus). But fast forward about 10 days, I began to view things differently after seeing it ravage through Italy. And a few weeks later, when it began to explode in New York, the impending doom was obvious.

I had intended to return to BKK in June but those flights have of course been cancelled. And although I still plan to make it back as soon as it’s feasible, this conversation has me thinking about my expectations. The biggest reason is to meet up with my regular guy who I’ve been with going on three years now. Everything else comes in a distant second. But I freely admit I’ve come to really enjoy the atmosphere of Patpong 2. The vibe is great and possibilities are endless. And when I return, whenever that might be, I hope to spend a lot of time there.

But when I think about what it may be like I get a bit apprehensive. I have no problem wearing a mask on the street but if they’re required in the bars or massage shops, I’d be inclined to take a pass. The workers have every right to expect customers—particularly foreigners--to wear one because we pose the greatest threat to them. And with at least a third asymptomatic, there’s absolutely no way to know one’s status for sure unless they’ve had a diagnostic or antibody test.

We have an obligation to respect the the well being of others and if that means I go without some of the finer experiences I've come to enjoy then it's the price I'm willing to pay,

As others have mentioned, finding guys you’ve known from the past may turn out to be the prudent way to go. It doesn’t eliminate the risks for ether party; it simply diminishes the odds.

Maybe a vaccine will set things back to normal (not the new normal), or as some predict maybe just time itself will resolve the matter. 

If someone said three months ago that we’d be discussing matters of ethics and moral philosophy here, few would have believed it. Back then the biggest item on the board was whether of not Babe would return to Moonlight.

Those were the days.

[DivineMadman]

18 minutes ago, reader said:

I have no problem wearing a mask on the street but if they’re required in the bars or massage shops, I’d be inclined to take a pass.

Presumably - and this is just a "presumably" not a prediction - customers will not have to wear masks at bars or restaurants, but the staff will.  This means I will not be able to use my standard line, "You have the cutest smile in Bangkok."  

I doubt that anyone officially knows what will happen to dancers/entertainers when the bars and entertainment venues can open.

At barber shops, I believe the customer doesn't have to wear a mask for all the right practical reasons, but the barber does.  If the "legit" massage shops are at first limited to foot massage only, then I would expect the customers will have to wear masks.  Personally, I do not expect them to require customers to wear masks for full massages when that blessed day arrives.  But, again, the masseurs will.  Prime was operating under this sort of set up before the lockdown.  It was fine.

Somewhere I posted a pic from Spa Bangkok where they are expecting to wear plastic shields and masks to protect the masseurs (and by extension to protect the customers).  Spa Bangkok seems to be making their safety regimen a marketing point - good to know for people who might feel they are in a particular risk group.  

 

[reader]

Hope "staff" doesn't include the guys on stage. How will we know if they're smiling at us. LOL.

That's good news about barber shops in LOS. Just made an appointment here for my first haircut since February and was reminded that the both client and barber has to be masked. Go figure.

 

[vinapu]

All that talk  is depressing and I'm thinking about becoming a monk or something. Or perhaps  next trip will be just sightseeing?

[PeterRS]

3 hours ago, reader said:

But when I think about what it may be like I get a bit apprehensive. I have no problem wearing a mask on the street but if they’re required in the bars or massage shops, I’d be inclined to take a pass. The workers have every right to expect customers—particularly foreigners--to wear one because we pose the greatest threat to them. And with at least a third asymptomatic, there’s absolutely no way to know one’s status for sure unless they’ve had a diagnostic or antibody test.

I cant help thinking back to the start of the HIV pandemic, SARS and a comparison with covid19. On the surface HIV was the worst virus toe world has seen in our lifetimes. Everyone in the 1980s knew that getting HIV was a death sentence. Thailand had a rapidly increasing rate of victims. Heck, every country had. There was talk that visitors ftom certain countries might be banned from bars because it was assumed they would more likely bring the virus, but that never happened. The bars remained full at the weekends, there were boys galore and the pandemic did not seem to limit anyones enjoyment.

The difference then was condoms. It quickly became known that known that HIV was spread through exchange of bodily fluids. Thailand had the "condom king" khun Meechai who had been working for years in the provinces promoting condom use to reduce family sizes. it was not difficult for him to switch tack and promote general condom use. For those who have not heard of him, you may know his famous Cabbages and Condoms restaurant off Suk around Soi 10 or 12. He took the stigma out of condoms. He made fun of them. Bar owners gladly held seminars with their boys to illustrate how they should be used.

From what I read, the SARS and covid19 viruses are closely related and very similar. The one crucial difference is that the effects of SARS became noticeable within two days of infection. Tracing contacts was therefore massively easier. The virus was relatively quickly controlled without the need for any vaccine. Sadly the effects of covid19 take about two weeks and many infected are asymptomatic.  So how do you protect yourself and others from tiny unseen droplets in the air unless you wear a face condom - ie. a mask. On CNN this morning there is a rather alarming study which illustrates that droplets from one  bad cough can actually carry as far as 12 feet which they will reach in about 1 minute following the cough. Wear a standard surgical mask and the risk is greatly lessened, but droplets will still escape and spread from the sides. They help the wearer but are less effective for those around you. The N95 mask which I find very uncomfortable to wear in the heat of Thailand much reduces the risk of the escape of droplets. 

Covid19 has a much reduced death rate compared to those who suffered from HIV and SARS. But there is another worrying fact. It is now known that quite a number of those who recover can end up with longer term health problems.  "Bizarre" is how various experts describe the effects. They just do not yet know how this virus really works or what its long term effects might be. Its all very troubling.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-long-term-severe-effects-covid-19-can-go-months/

[spoon]

1 hour ago, vinapu said:

All that talk  is depressing and I'm thinking about becoming a monk or something. Or perhaps  next trip will be just sightseeing?

So far the news and article about the virus has been gloomy, but i see it as the more we know (good or bad), the better we will be at seeing the end of this. Its nearly impossible to manage the unknown. On a brighter note, vaccine news seems positive. One article i read (cant find the link though) says from the clinical trial that the vaccine they tested are deemed safe for human. Next step is ensure its working, and that might take until fall or later to see any indication. Hope we can see it materialize in 6 month or so. Meanwhile, dutch government suggested all the singles to get a dedicated fuck buddy during this trying time. I wish it was that easy here lol.

[ggobkk]

I receive texts and some photos from some of the Vietnamese boys I've known for many years.  They are home safely, it appears that they have work that does not compensate like the bars/massage shops.  No one seems in a hurry to go back to Bangkok.  They want to know if I'm ok because they news they receive is of how large a number of cases and deaths there are in the USA. It's a matter of perspective.

Last week, United and ANA each offered me round trip airfares of less than $400 for anytime, but Christmas, between now and March.

Tempting...but

I try to be a realistic optimist (written as I'm enter week 11 of quarantine in the Bay Area).  I am of an age that both puts me at heightened statistical risk today and allows me to remember being in Bangkok in the 80s.  Condoms were available but usually I had to ask.

I share the other posters desire to return as soon as there is opportunity and some sense of safety.  Back at the end of last year, Reader and I thought we'd meet up later this November and enjoy the delights of Patpong 2.  I thought that I might catch up with Vinapu this summer.  (Note: Vinapu, monastery is not a good idea, as several in the US have had massive covid outbreaks).

I live in Berkeley, it is a science hub, and the scientists I talk to remark on the amount of funding being channelled to finding a vaccine.  Lawrence Berkeley Lab, famed for deep learning programming as well as nuclear research has redirected much of its research capability to combating covid..  Vaccines take a long time and billions of doses are required if one or more is developed. Invest in the manufacturers.

 A long-time friend is the  head of science for a Beijing based Chinese pharma company.  He told me yesterday that he and his team are focusing not on a vaccine but at drugs that would minimize symptoms - he noted that there is still no vaccine for HIV or SARS but there are medications that limit the damage potentially making the effects of the virus benign.  He said many other firms are doing the same. 

Canada today announced successful results from a trial with ferrets, President Trump is no longer taking the lupus drug, bleach sales are holding steady, the drug companies seem to allow their early positive results get out to the world which seems to cause their market value to jump and then fall back when the trial only involved a dozen subjects.  

So, to sum up, I, along with the rest of us, can only wait and ,when the waiting is ending, weigh our options as to risk and reward.  Reader mentions he booked a haircut, I'm still weeks away from barbers reopening here.  Luckily, I have very little hair.  Reader can speak for himself on the subject.

And, being very bored in quarantine, I now and then wonder how Numazu is doing as was deciding between Bangkok and Brazil for April...

Be well and stay well everyone.

 

 

 

 

  

[Guest]

15 hours ago, spoon said:

Seems like there is a growing trend of young patients (25-49) suffering severe/critical condition and higher death rates amongst developing countries (brazil (5% of the death), mexico (25% of the death), india (50% for death are younger than 60)

From what I've read, it's believed that a higher proportion of younger people in Brazil are infected, as they are out and about working etc.

Anyhow, I think the youngsters in Thailand shouldn't waste their time worrying about the direct effects of the virus, since there's a very low incidence rate of it in Thailand and even if they do catch it, the probability of death is about 0.2%.     Low incidence rate x low death rate means there are other things they should worry about, such as wearing a helmet when using a motorcycle etc.    In a country with very little regard for health & safety, a high fear of the virus amongst young people is irrational.

Where they do need to worry is with the indirect effects of the virus.   For a start, if tourism is 20% of the GDP and that's been shut down, it's obviously having have a severe effect on the economy at present.

However, eventually they will adapt to this.   I see some European countries are intending to reopen their tourism sectors in July, presumably with significant restrictions.  I expect Thailand will adapt in some way as well, but the economic recovery will mostly be slow.   

 

 

[jason1975]

7 hours ago, ggobkk said:

Last week, United and ANA each offered me round trip airfares of less than $400 for anytime, but Christmas, between now and March.

I received promotion offer of 40% discount on hotel in Bangkok until end of this year but must book by June. I am seriously thinking about making a reservation...

[spoon]

All of this temptations because the businesses needed cash money to stay afloat. Id be wary to buy anything this early, as some businesses might not even there anymore by the time you can travel to honor your booking. And chance of refund in bankruptcy is pretty slim. On the other hand, if you believe in the businesses and want to support them in time of crisis, buying their early vouchers might help them stay afloat too. Just hope enough people will buy the vouchers so that the businesses will still survive once travel is allowed. 

To be honest, i doubt the hotel will charge high rate anyway even when we are allowed to travel. Itll take some times for the amount of tourists visiting to come back to normal level and businesses will have to compete to get customers from a much smaller pool.

[spoon]

5 hours ago, z909 said:

Where they do need to worry is with the indirect effects of the virus.   For a start, if tourism is 20% of the GDP and that's been shut down, it's obviously having have a severe effect on the economy at present.

Interesting point as i believe this part is true not just for thailand but the rest of the world too. But if we focus on tourism and travel alone, some countries are hit harder than others, hence they are under pressure to open their border soonest. Below is an article discussing this, and thailand, cambodia and philliphines are those in asia that relies on tourism a lot. They also looked at the biggest economies and effect of tourism on those economies and a look at how much some countries tend to lost out on tourism dollar value due to covid-19.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-reliant-tourism/

[DivineMadman]

2 hours ago, spoon said:

Interesting point as i believe this part is true not just for thailand but the rest of the world too. But if we focus on tourism and travel alone, some countries are hit harder than others, hence they are under pressure to open their border soonest. Below is an article discussing this, and thailand, cambodia and philliphines are those in asia that relies on tourism a lot. They also looked at the biggest economies and effect of tourism on those economies and a look at how much some countries tend to lost out on tourism dollar value due to covid-19.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-reliant-tourism/

To give it some additional context, the usual GDP number for tourism in Thailand is around 18%, which people round up to 20%, even though 2% of GDP is a big round up.  Of that, between 6-7% is usually the number for domestic tourism.  The current government in particular has been big on programs to boost domestic tourism, and no surprise, that is first and foremost on the agenda for them as they start to start to loosen the COVID-19 rules.  https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1924024/thailand-to-drive-domestic-tourism.  [GDP itself is often thought of as mis-used figure because it doesn't take into account the cost side of things.]

Without a doubt, the near-shut down of tourism has had a huge negative effect, and one that almost certainly falls disproportionately on the poorest.  But obviously reopening too soon and without adequate screening and other protections just means there will be a second COVID-19 wave, leading to another round of lock-downs, etc., and the sacrifices that people have made so far will have been wasted.  I think that is why the Thai government has sensibly taken a go-slow-and-safe approach on reopening and why they are planning on using the hard-won success in fighting COVID-19 as a marketing tool to win back the most desirable tourists ("Amazing Trusted Thailand").  My guess is Vietnam will also use it's success in dealing with COVID-19 as a marketing tool.  We should all be thrilled that they are doing this.  It keeps us safe.  I'm 100% for a brand that says "COVID-19 safety is our priority so you can relax."

Right now it's officially wet season, so from a tourism perspective shoulder or heading into low season.  My guess is that the powers that be understand that the money lost by rushing to open now is just a prudent if painful investment compared with the losses that would occur if there is a second wave of COVID-19 that would hit the next high season.

[reader]

14 hours ago, ggobkk said:

Reader mentions he booked a haircut, I'm still weeks away from barbers reopening here.  Luckily, I have very little hair.  Reader can speak for himself on the subject.

Got that haircut today (first since leaving BKK) and I think the barber got more off my ears and eyebrows than he did off my scalp.