Maybe We Don't Travel

[CurtisD]

Bangkok Guy has been more prescient about Covid 19 than I have.

Shortly after returning from Bangkok I went on a couple of business trips in quick succession. Long haul flights with facemask and sanitizer.

Upon returning home in early March I asked him if he wanted to join me in Singapore for a few days in June. “Covid 19, cannot”. I was thinking things may have blown over by then and I still have the tickets, but increasingly I think I will be canceling the trip.

When Bangkok went into shut down at the end of March I thought he would probably lose his income from the market stalls, so I sent him an allowance payment for April when none was due (the allowance is every second month) and he was very happy. I have not told him, but I will pay it every month until things normalize.

I also asked him if he had any business plans. His Chinese horoscope for 2020 is very strong on business success so I thought I should help him to capitalize on it. A start-up I am advising had just got enough traction to begin to pay Board fees and I thought I would ‘escrow’ part of this new income for Bangkok Guy’s allowance and helping him with his business ideas.

The Line exchange was odd. He had several ideas and the idea that there might be money was clearly interesting, as represented by an excited bunny popping its head out of its hole. I said take time to think.

There was no follow-through. The next couple of weeks Line exchanges were the usual ‘How are you?’ ‘I am good’ with pictures of rabbits cuddling bears.

A couple of days ago I booked his tickets for our October trip and sent him a screen shot.

In return I got the longest Line message he has ever sent, a long list of all the destinations to which the Thai Govt has said Thai people should not travel, which included our destination. Bangkok Guy not up for travel!?

So I video called him.

It was good to see him.

Same warm smile. Perspiring a little and dressed and active at 10.30am, so something was afoot.

He was outside a trim white and blue painted building on stilts with walkways and more buildings on the edge of a large body of water. Not sure if it was a wide river or lake. A little girl came and chatted to him and he turned the phone around so she could see me. I waved.

‘Not in Bangkok. At sister house. Bangkok scary.’ 

Now it is clear why there was no follow up on the business discussion. All work stopped and retreated to the ‘safety’ of the countryside.

He is finding the news from the rest of the World disturbing, particularly the fact that the US is doing so badly.

Maybe no trip this year.

So I have booked a trip for next year and hope for the best.

[GWMinUS]

Interesting report! YES everything is up in the air  now. And that does not include airplanes!! My friends in the Philippines are also locked-down. One person in the Family must have a Pass. That is the only person allowed to go out. And there is no traveling between areas of the Country.

So I can understand his concern. Maybe things will be different by October. God knows I will go Stir Crazy if they are not.

Cheers from another Dad from the USA!!

[reader]

Well I agree that the future is impenetrable, Thailand sounds like a country preparing to emerge from the doldrums of isolation.

Air Asia announced today it will begin some domestic service in Thailand May 1.

The government's Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration stressed yesterday that 29 provinces have been free of new cases for two weeks. Its spokesman says guidelines for a “new normal” are being drafted amid talks of a gradual reopening of business around the country. He said the government is pleased with the dropping number of new cases and is considering relaxing restrictions, though people can not ignore “good practices” such as social distancing, wearing a mask and washing hands regularly.

The Bangkok Post reports that Phuket province (that has the second-highest total of infections in the country after Bangkok) reported no new Covid-19 infections on Saturday as seven more infected patients have fully recovered and been discharged from hospitals. The Post also said today that 33 new local cases were logged nation wide but there were no new deaths. Thailand has only 0.7 deaths per million population, compared to hardest hit countries like Belgium (477), Spain (428), Italy (376), France (278), UK (219), Netherlands (200), Switzerland (157), Sweden (137), US (113) and Ireland (109).

According to Khaosod English, the PM has appointed 23 senate members to a Committee on Tourism.  Fifteen are military officers turned senators.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[reader]

From The Nation

Plan to lift some restrictions

The Public Health Ministry has come up with a plan on lifting restrictions on some businesses in 32 provinces, which will be submitted to the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) for consideration.

Kamnuan Ungchusak, an adviser to the public health minister on the Covid-19 outbreak, said at a meeting with related agencies, it was agreed that the measures should be relaxed slowly so people’s lives and businesses can return to normal. However, he said, some measures should remain in place such as screening arrivals from overseas and quarantining them for 14 days.

Also, he said, provinces should keep a close lookout for new infections and monitor crowded areas, while laboratory tests should never be slackened.

“People should also continue wearing masks, maintaining social distancing and refraining from assembly to cut down on the risk of new cases,” Kamnuan said.

Meanwhile, there are seven to 10 million people who have lost their jobs and health officials believe that some leniency based on the level of risk in different areas should be granted to businesses. However, some businesses such as entertainment venues, pubs, bars, karaoke clubs, massage parlours and boxing stadiums should remain closed until the outbreak ends.

As of April 14, no new cases were reported in 32 provinces for over two weeks, hence some restrictions will be relaxed in these provinces from May 1, while life in other provinces may return to normal by mid-May.

However, businesses in the the provinces of Bangkok, Chonburi, Nonthaburi, Phuket, Samut Prakan, Pattani and Yala – where new cases are constantly being found – may start operating from the beginning of June.

As for department stores, operators will be required to screen each shopper for temperature, limit the number of shoppers and the time they spend in the store, not allow queues in the toilets, collect customer data and desist from holding sales promotion events.

It is believed that parks will be the first to be reopened, provided people agree to exercise on their own and not in a group. Schools that are planning to reopen in July will have to make plans to adapt to the situation, especially in terms of the space between each student’s desk.

[spoon]

International Tourist will never come if they are required to be quarantined for 14 days at the start of their vacation. Even for long term tourist, 2 weeks of isolation is not a way to start your vacation. Boys from other countries who comes to work using 14days free visa will definitely not coming to be quarantined for 14 days either. So only boys who are able to get longer work permit, and thai boys will be able to work in bars. Until they lift the 14 days quarantine, which i believe not going to happen anytime soon, most people would refrain from travelling there.

[Travellerdave]

That’s not good news spoon. I was hoping to be able to make a trip in August/September but it would seem that this will not be feasible. On the other hand perhaps gay expats will have a good time with the available boys ?

[Londoner]

I force myself to be optimistic. Much of Thailand has not been hit hard  and the government will be determined to lift restrictions as soon as possible. Tourism is too important to be ignored and spoon is correct; a two week quarantine ensures that tourists don't come.   The hotels will be banging on the government's door to ensure that the borders are open as soon as possible and the flow of tourists turned back on. I don't  think Travellerdave  should give-up on September. 

 

[spoon]

The only sure fireway to contain imported cases is 14 days quarantine after arrival as some people who tested positive shows no symptoms, which render temperature screening less successful, and some even tested negative first but later on tested positive during quarantine. Malaysia had started to isolate returning citizens in quarantine centers few weeks ago and more than 50 were in fact positives, but many not showing symptoms as they are young students from various countries, mainly indonesia though. Singapore recent hike in cases are majority from work permit holder living in dormitaries, making the country highest total case in SE Asia in matter of days. Due to this, malaysia is now mass testing our own pool of foreign workers,with recent full lockdown area in KL where 15k of residents will be tested. 

Now, i wonder if thailand will follow suit and mass testing their foreign workers as well. Social distancing is an ideal case but tell me if you lives in a dorm room along with 10 others, how efective will it be. Social distancing is a luxury some people cant afford. I know i sounded negative, i too want borders to be opened as soon as possible, but not in the expense of breaking out happening again and we repeat the cycle of lockdown all over again. One lockdown is bad enough.

[TotallyOz]

I may be wrong, but I don't see major restrictions being lifted soon. We shall see.

[Londoner]

My boyfriend lives 40km from Kamphaeng Phaet in a very rural location. He has been  maintaining social distancing  assiduously and doesn't downplay the significance and perils of what's happening. However, his local area's stats for infections and deaths ( assuming that official figures are correct and we can't be sure of that)  indicate that there have, so far, been few cases. He was recently in hospital after a snake-bite and saw no signs of a  serious pandemic. ....I know, this is just anecdotal. 

His reading of the situation is that restrictions will, to some degree , be lifted shortly. Perhaps not in Bangkok, of course. And once that starts happening, the tourism industry will be clamouring for  the return of its customers.

Wishful thinking? perhaps....we are missing our May/June trip and want to meet up in three or four months. 

[spoon]

There are two ways i can think of to contain the virus while still partially allowing some area to be functioning. One, allow green area, (where no new cases in 14 days) to function as normal, but restrict travelling only within green area. Basically this will involved full lockdown on areas that is not green. Whether this is feasible or not, its another story. 

Second mass testing of all the provinces that are still having new cases. By doing this, those who are positive can be isolated hence spreading can be stopped. Again, not many countries can do this. We know enough that asymptomatic person can be tested positive, and they might still able to spread the virus, so again, just temperature screening wont do. Mass testing will help for sure. 

[zoomy02]

In 2019 the weekly death toll in Thailand from road accidents was 230 people. (Academics caution that this figure only relates to those who die at the scene, and the actual death toll is far higher when when all all data is collated, and when victims succumb to their injuries after leaving the accident scene.) According to the John Hopkins site the deaths so far from Covid 19 in Thailand stand at 48, as of 22nd April. As in all countries I expect the real C19 death numbers are higher. But the Thai government has not shut down the economy, introduced a curfew and made alcohol sales illegal to stop road deaths. Is this logical?

[spoon]

Yes. Death accident is not contagious. Covid-19 is. And we have seen much wealthier countries with much better healthcare being overwhelm by covid-19 and death counts were in ten of thousands because they didnt shut down their economy early enough. Thailand death toll is low because they of this, and they will continue to do all they can to avoid being the next USA (used to be italy, and before that, wuhan) 

[DivineMadman]

9 hours ago, spoon said:

Yes. Death accident is not contagious. Covid-19 is. And we have seen much wealthier countries with much better healthcare being overwhelm by covid-19 and death counts were in ten of thousands because they didnt shut down their economy early enough. Thailand death toll is low because they of this, and they will continue to do all they can to avoid being the next USA (used to be italy, and before that, wuhan) 

Yes.  100% agree.  

And traffic fatalities do not overwhelm the health care system or endanger the lives of health care workers.

Boggles the mind that after all this time some people are still saying there's nothing special about a highly contagious disease with serious health consequences.

[Guest]

11 hours ago, zoomy02 said:

In 2019 the weekly death toll in Thailand from road accidents was 230 people. (Academics caution that this figure only relates to those who die at the scene, and the actual death toll is far higher when when all all data is collated, and when victims succumb to their injuries after leaving the accident scene.) According to the John Hopkins site the deaths so far from Covid 19 in Thailand stand at 48, as of 22nd April. As in all countries I expect the real C19 death numbers are higher. But the Thai government has not shut down the economy, introduced a curfew and made alcohol sales illegal to stop road deaths. Is this logical?

You have a point.

When there would be minimum negative impact, it's completely irrational for the Thai government to do nothing to improve road safety and for that matter, pollution.

Road safety measures might include:   Fines for dangerous driving, fines for drunken driving, severe fines for not wearing helmets, seat belts etc.    Using appropriate vehicles with seats and seat belts.    Improving road design.    (Not banning alcohol)

 

As for Covid, remember the most credible experts are reminding us this only gets solved when we have herd immunity. 

Via a vaccine or doing it the hard way (the latter would preferably be the part of the herd most likely to survive).  

 

 

[vinapu]

at least we have clean air thanks to almost all traffic  stopped

[reader]

From The Nation

Flights back to normal by Oct 2021, says AOT

Airports of Thailand (AOT) expects the volume of flights to return to normal by October 2021, AOT president Nitinai Sirismatthakarn announced on Thursday (April 23).

AOT’s management team forecasts that in fiscal year 2020 (October 2019 to September 2020) Thai airports will see about 493,800 flights and about 66.58 million passengers.

“Total flights and passengers will drop by 44.9 per cent and 53.1 per cent, respectively, due to the Covid-19 pandemic,” Nitinai said.

“The forecast was made by considering that recovery of the aviation business is dependent on the recovery of destination countries. Meanwhile, Thailand’s important destination countries are countries in the Asia-Pacific region which account for over 80 per cent of our travel.”

He expects domestic flights to recover before international services, since the latter are dependent on countries’ moves to contain the spread of Covid-19 and how long it takes to develop antiviral drugs or vaccines.

“If the Covid-19 situation is brought under control in countries worldwide, the economy in Thailand and other major countries will recover, while traffic volume will return to normal in October 2021,” he said.

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From The Thaiger

Thailand names 5 more ASEAN countries as ‘high risk’, 4 are border nations

A Ministry of Public Health announcement yesterday, signed by Deputy PM and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, and published in the Royal Gazette, claims the Covid-19 situation in 5 nearby countries is escalating. Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia and Myanmar have now been added to the list of countries and territories considered as high risk areas for infection.

On March 6, Thailand had named four countries: China (including Hong Kong and Macau), South Korea, Italy and Iran, as being high risk areas for Covid-19 infection, though Hong Kong and South Korea have contained their outbreaks admirably.

Somehow the recent surge in cases in Singapore, which has doubled its number of active cases in just six days, escaped the Minister’s attention. The island state now has 10,141 cases making it the highest number of cases in South east Asia.

The announcement makes the re-opening of borders with the neighbouring countries for trade and travel unlikely in the short-term. It would also make a resumption of flights to and from these countries unlikely to begin again soon.

 

[spoon]

Well, most countries are blanket banning travel anyway, so i see this exercise to choose which countries to be classed as high risk is futile to say the least. Time would be better spent in tackling internal issues rather than worry which country is high risk or low risk as it doesnt take much for the virus to spread. But if you really feel its necessary to do it now, do it properly and based it on active cases.

[DivineMadman]

I agree it's a bit silly -- and the omission of Singapore seems bizarre - but you could imagine that if they are planning to lift the ban on all flights into the country, then they will need to resurrect the old system -- or come up with a new one -- for who can and cannot come into the country and on what conditions (med certificate, etc.), so this might be part of general housekeeping to get that system back up in place for the removal of the ban on incoming flights - perhaps as early as the end of the month???  

Whether there actually will be any flights and if so from where once the AOT opens the door, we'll see.  

[spoon]

If there are thinking to open up their border and lift ban on travel, they really need to do it properly, and of course as it gets closer to the lift, the better, as what they decided now might no longer be valid in few weeks or months later. 

[DivineMadman]

1 hour ago, spoon said:

If there are thinking to open up their border and lift ban on travel, they really need to do it properly, and of course as it gets closer to the lift, the better, as what they decided now might no longer be valid in few weeks or months later. 

THere's nothing stopping them from changing anything in the future.  I'm just trying to make the simple point that there might be a simple explanation on why they did what they did.

[anddy]

DM's explanation may have some truth to it, resurrecting whatever framework for (dis-)allowing incoming flights. However, it seems so incredibly arbitrary (Laos has 19 reported cases, Cambodia 122 and Myanmar 132), Singapore more than 10k and a very high per capita rate), that it looks like something else. As it happens, 4 out of the 5 countries have a land border with Thailand, so seems they put the cart before the horse and actually wanted to keep those borders shut and just invented this "high risk" thing as an excuse, throwing Indonesia in for good measure and to make it look less obvious. 

Who knows....  Making sense it not a strength of Thai governments, rules and regulations, that's nothing new.

[Guest]

Well ultimately, Thailand has a vested interest in eventually allowing inbound tourists from "low risk" countries.    

For a country to be classed as low risk, I think they could logically consider criteria, such as:

1  Number of active cases per capita similar or lower than Thailand

2  The data must be reliable.      Now, currently, as far as I know, no country currently has a really accurate idea of how many people are infected, as that would require large scale random sampling to cover all the people with no symptoms.   I doubt that places like Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar will lead the way with that.   

Some countries who have had lockdown measures in place for several weeks will be ramping up testing for post lockdown, so eventually the understanding will improve in those countries.

[spoon]

4 hours ago, DivineMadman said:

THere's nothing stopping them from changing anything in the future.  I'm just trying to make the simple point that there might be a simple explanation on why they did what they did.

I know what you meant. Just me rambling because my country is in the list and logic thinking or not, they have full authority to allow or disallow anyone from entering their country. Lets hope they dont relax their current measures now prematurely and risk a second round of lockdown, thus making prostect of any of us to return to LOS as earlier goes to none.

[reader]

Flying in Covid19 airspace -- Articles in various Thai media begin to provide insight into what flying will be like, domestically at least. According to one report, no international carriers have expressed interest in resuming flight to date.

From The Nation

Domestic flights resume May with strict conditions

If provinces where tourist destinations are located start lifting their restrictions next month, then airlines will be allowed to resume domestic flight services but only under strict conditions.

So far, Air Asia is the only airline that has indicated it will resume flights on May 1, while Lion Air has said it will wait for the government’s decision on whether or not to extend the state of emergency. Some government officials have signalled that a few restrictions may be eased though the state of emergency may be extended beyond April 30.

======================================================================================================

From Khaosod English

Domestic Flight Fares May Increase By 80%

BANGKOK — As domestic commercial flights are set to resume in May, ticket prices could nearly double following the Thai Civil Aviation Authority’s new regulations for fare calculations.

Chula Sukmanop, director of the aviation regulator, said domestic airlines will be allowed to charge up almost twice the fare implemented prior to the coronavirus pandemic, since many seats will be left empty to ensure physical distancing.

Prior to the outbreak, domestic low-cost airlines usually charged no more than 5 baht per kilometer for a flight within the kingdom. But the new regulation will permit them to charge up to 9.40, approximately an 80 percent increase.