Silom/Patpong after the crisis

[reader]

Trying to predict the future is often an exercise in futility but I won't let that keep me from giving it a try.

When what eventually became known as Covid19 first began to get the attention of posters, the general sentiment of the board was that it's being overblown and the Silom/Patong scene would muddle through. Not an unreasonable assumption because at the time it was almost exclusively a China-centric issue. The first indications that it might be a bit more serious than that was a steady decline in tourists arriving into Bangkok. But most, myself included, assumed it would be a temporary setback. Fast forward a few months and we know that was short-sighted.

I decided the best way to go out trying to discern the future was to look to the past. First--and probably most important--was the 1997 Asian financial Crisis. Here's an excerpt from Wikipedia (specific to Thailand's experience) I believe is noteworthy:

From 1985 to 1996, Thailand's economy grew at an average of over 9% per year, the highest economic growth rate of any country at the time. Inflation was kept reasonably low within a range of 3.4–5.7%.^[32] The baht was pegged at 25 to the U.S. dollar.

On 14 May and 15 May 1997, the Thai baht was hit by massive speculative attacks. On 30 June 1997, Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh said that he would not devalue the baht. However, Thailand lacked the foreign reserves to support the USD–Baht currency peg, and the Thai government was eventually forced to float the Baht, on 2 July 1997, allowing the value of the Baht to be set by the currency market. This caused a chain reaction of events, eventually culminating into a region-wide crisis.^[33]

Thailand's booming economy came to a halt amid massive layoffs in finance, real estate, and construction that resulted in huge numbers of workers returning to their villages in the countryside and 600,000 foreign workers being sent back to their home countries. The baht devalued swiftly and lost more than half of its value. The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units to the U.S. dollar in January 1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%. Finance One, the largest Thai finance company until then, collapsed.^[35]

On 11 August 1997, the IMF unveiled a rescue package for Thailand with more than $17 billion, subject to conditions such as passing laws relating to bankruptcy (reorganizing and restructuring) procedures and establishing strong regulation frameworks for banks and other financial institutions. The IMF approved on 20 August 1997, another bailout package of $2.9 billion.

Right after the 1997 Asian financial crisis income in the northeast, the poorest part of the country, rose by 46 percent from 1998 to 2006. Nationwide poverty fell from 21.3 to 11.3 percent.^[

By 2001, Thailand's economy had recovered. The increasing tax revenues allowed the country to balance its budget and repay its debts to the IMF in 2003, four years ahead of schedule. The Thai baht continued to appreciate to 29 Baht to the U.S. dollar in October 2010.

I'm not saying that the Covid19 crisis will rise to this level. It could very well run a course not unlike it is doing now in China. Yes, it was a crushing blow to the Chinese economy but conditions appear to be on the rebound. Although it's likely there will be hiccups along the way, we'd like to believe that the worst is behind them. If we agree that the first cases were detected (but not widely reported) in November that means the episode has taken roughly four months to stabilize.  If Thailand can continue to pursue strong containment measures, there's little reason not to believe that it can have a similar outcome. But Thailand is a least a few months behind the curve compared to China so a it seems reasonable that it could achieve stabilization by June.

But what would "stabilization" look like on the ground? I think we know what it won't be like: a magical return to business as usual overnight. More likely, it will be a slow rebound that may track track China's evolving progress as it claws its way back. The government announced yesterday that it's prepared to borrow heavily to stimulate the Thai economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could once again emerge as a prime source of the needed funds.

So how would this all translate to the status of the bars and other venues in the Silom/Patpong? That I find a bit more challenging because all jobs are not going to return at the same time or at the same rate. I'd think that jobs in the malls and food vending might be among the first to start climbing. Tourism would lag for several reasons. Tourists who would normally be counted upon return again may have lost their jobs or had their incomes reduced. Some of those who are able to travel may still have lingering fears about the virus.

As airlines begin to slowly ramp up service, they'll likely be very cautious about increasing capacity. Although they'll all be looking for cash flow, there main objective will be optimum fleet utilization as opposed to engaging in fare wars with competitors. In other words, don't necessarily look for huge bargains. 

So aviation-related jobs will definitely tick up but at a restrained pace. The same with hotels. The results will be that those who made their living in these industries could well decide to look elsewhere.

As for the entertainment zones and massage shops get the go-ahead to resume business, it's not impossible that young Thai men and women may look upon these occupations more favorably. They did, after all, once dominate these jobs.

But what actually happens may be altogether different.

 

 

 

 

 

[vinapu]

After 1997 crisis Thailand rebounded spectacularly but not without a scratch. Monumrnts of that economic collapse are dotting Bangkok here and there, most prominent I guess, one for all to see is shell of highrise right beside Saphan Taksin station.

About post's main issue my prediction is that as soon as conditions will return to something resembling normalcy and borders will open, Silom/ Patpong will rebound quite fast. Humanity likes good times and this neighborhood is good at delivery of that.  But most likely not all bars and massages will re-open and not all our favorite guys will return as in meantim ethay may find other opportunities.

I'm in talks with IMF and fully committed to support their package for Thailand with my own contribution as soon as it will be feasible ie. borders will open , airlines  will start flying and I don't die of virus or something in meantime. You have it in writing here

[Guest]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

I'm in talks with IMF and fully committed to support their package for Thailand with my own contribution as soon as it will be feasible ie. borders will open , airlines  will start flying and I don't die of virus or something in meantime. You have it in writing here

Thailand has only $220 billion in foreign currency reserves, so your additional contribution will be much needed.  

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

 

In a few months time, I can envisage some resumption of flights, opening of borders and so on.

Scenarios we may need to cope with are personal covid immunity status,  travel insurance coverage for covid medical costs and quarantine, testing or certification requirements to enter certain countries.  

Plus, no clue at all about the prevalence of covid in certain countries, e.g. Myanmar.   

[PeterRS]

What actually happens in 2020 may well be different. In 1997 the effect was principally limited to Asia. But Thailand did not recover quickly. It had totally exhausted all its foreign exchange reserves in the vain attempt to prop up the baht. The country suffered a good three years of severe economic pain.

That crisis only had a minor effect on the rest of the world. China then was a tiny dot on the economic horizon. Now it has been  contributing a third of the global economy. China's growth this year will be way lower than the last few years and this will have a huge effect around the world. Imports and exports are all falling dramatically as economic activity in countries increasingly being locked down declines. Already, as Tim Cook of Apple pointed out, there are huge disruptions to the world's supply chains. We have already seen the effect just on world tourism with Thailand especially hard hit as outbound Chinese travel is all but dead. Many major airlines and much of the hotel industry are on life support. When people start to fly in greater numbers again, I cannot see a return to pre Covid19 levels till far into the future. Recently I stayed in a 390 room hotel which had at most 30 rooms occupied. In my crystal ball I see a much greater wariness of the Chinese to travel even in the medium term since average incomes will have dropped and families will have less disposable income for two years or more.

I suspect a more accurate comparison is with the global financial crisis in 2008. But I see this one as being even worse. I truly wish I am wrong. I do agree, though, that one result may be a drop in the number of Vietnamese, Laos and Cambodians in the entertainment business and a return of more Thais. Perhaps thats one little bright sot on the horizon.

 

[10tazione]

Another question is, how many airlines will survive this at all? Somewhere i read that the IATA estimates that without government help 50% of airlines will go bankrupt.

[vinapu]

9 hours ago, PeterRS said:

 

 I do agree, though, that one result may be a drop in the number of Vietnamese, Laos and Cambodians in the entertainment business and a return of more Thais. Perhaps that's one little bright spot on the horizon.

 

I wonder what exactly is bright spot  in that from our point of view . I can understand Thais as they may say foreigners are taking their whoring jobs but for us ? Is Lao cock less tasty than Thai one and Khmer butt less bubbly?

[Guest]

10 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I do agree, though, that one result may be a drop in the number of Vietnamese, Laos and Cambodians in the entertainment business and a return of more Thais. Perhaps thats one little bright spot on the horizon.

I don't even begin to understand why replacing the Vietnamese, Laos and Khmer lads with Thais would be an improvement.   Would you mind enlightening me ?

On my last trip to Thailand, the percentages of lads I saw by nationality were (approximately):

Laos 53%

Thai 33%

Khmer 10%

Myanmar 3%

I got good results with all of these nationalities.    

Admittedly I've never had much success with Vietnamese, but I was still looking to meet them.   One got to my hotel, but "forgot" his ID card, so was sent away.   Another wanted a larger than normal tip, whilst being short of commitment on how he would earn the tip.  So he got rejected.

 

Additionally, having foreigners working in the bar is one more thing the brown shirted mafia can harass bars for.     So I expect the bars already prefer to hire Thais, but HAVE to look abroad in order to find sufficient boys who are willing and not overweight.  This situation should not change after COVID, unless the Thai economy is screwed for a few years & poverty forces lads back to the bars.   

My prediction is the availability of suitable Thai lads will continue to decrease, due to other career opportunities and increasing obesity in the younger generations.

 

 

[spoon]

My prediction is as soon as thailand and many other countries started to open up their borders, we will see big bars (the like of moonlight, lucky boys, jupiter, BBB in pattaya) will see a surge of boys eager to start earning money back. Unfortunately, the well off, popular boys might not be eager to return early due to fear of the virus still lingers and most likely they are well enough (either by savings or by sponsors) to even have that option. Fortunately, a range of new boys will begin to show up in bars as well. This will be those who are heavilly affected by the virus, especially those in tourism or businesses relying on tourists, as well as those affected due to lockdown (basically any industries not included in essential services, including construction, retails etc). The quality will be mixed and distribution as always few of high quality, majority will be average.

Businesses will definitely start to close down as they cant take the hit of not be able to operate for 1-2 months. This includes bars and massage places too. But we see this happened every year anyway. But fear not, while it may takes a while, new ones will open soon. Meanwhile, the bars that actually manage to stay open will see increase of patronage and will enjoy a great amount of income initially. Thai economy will definitely suffer, and recovery will be slow but i believe the sex industry will be amongst the first to recover. There is a reason why prostitution is the oldest profession in the world. 

[jason1975]

1 hour ago, z909 said:

I don't even begin to understand why replacing the Vietnamese, Laos and Khmer lads with Thais would be an improvement.   Would you mind enlightening me ?

On my last trip to Thailand, the percentages of lads I saw by nationality were (approximately):

Laos 53%

Thai 33%

Khmer 10%

Myanmar 3%

I got good results with all of these nationalities.    

Admittedly I've never had much success with Vietnamese, but I was still looking to meet them.   One got to my hotel, but "forgot" his ID card, so was sent away.   Another wanted a larger than normal tip, whilst being short of commitment on how he would earn the tip.  So he got rejected.

 

Additionally, having foreigners working in the bar is one more thing the brown shirted mafia can harass bars for.     So I expect the bars already prefer to hire Thais, but HAVE to look abroad in order to find sufficient boys who are willing and not overweight.  This situation should not change after COVID, unless the Thai economy is screwed for a few years & poverty forces lads back to the bars.   

My prediction is the availability of suitable Thai lads will continue to decrease, due to other career opportunities and increasing obesity in the younger generations.

 

 

I am so Glad that you hit it off with Laos boys. I always ended up with Laos boys who don’t speak much English. But I have had the lucky fortune to meet Myanmar and Cambodian boys who spoke wonderful English, even better than Thai and Vietnamese!

[jason1975]

1 hour ago, spoon said:

My prediction is as soon as thailand and many other countries started to open up their borders, we will see big bars (the like of moonlight, lucky boys, jupiter, BBB in pattaya) will see a surge of boys eager to start earning money back. Unfortunately, the well off, popular boys might not be eager to return early due to fear of the virus still lingers and most likely they are well enough (either by savings or by sponsors) to even have that option. Fortunately, a range of new boys will begin to show up in bars as well. This will be those who are heavilly affected by the virus, especially those in tourism or businesses relying on tourists, as well as those affected due to lockdown (basically any industries not included in essential services, including construction, retails etc). The quality will be mixed and distribution as always few of high quality, majority will be average.

Businesses will definitely start to close down as they cant take the hit of not be able to operate for 1-2 months. This includes bars and massage places too. But we see this happened every year anyway. But fear not, while it may takes a while, new ones will open soon. Meanwhile, the bars that actually manage to stay open will see increase of patronage and will enjoy a great amount of income initially. Thai economy will definitely suffer, and recovery will be slow but i believe the sex industry will be amongst the first to recover. There is a reason why prostitution is the oldest profession in the world. 

The problem is no one knows when the countries will open borders and allow people to travel again. I am not hopeful the lockdown will end by end of April. It might need another month in May.

[reader]

2 hours ago, z909 said:

 So I expect the bars already prefer to hire Thais, but HAVE to look abroad in order to find sufficient boys who are willing and not overweight.

 

Glad to relieve you of some of the chubby ones. Never rejected a masculine guy with a bit of paunch.

[spoon]

1 hour ago, jason1975 said:

The problem is no one knows when the countries will open borders and allow people to travel again. I am not hopeful the lockdown will end by end of April. It might need another month in May.

Yeah we dont know when. The prediction is for when its over, whenever that is. I also want to add that due to this lockdown, many boys i follow have more time to work out. Of course they have to improvise unless they have a home gym. But that also means they will be ripped when they finally can go back to bar. On the other hand, i also see some boys complained of gaining weight due to staying at home. 

[vinapu]

40 minutes ago, reader said:

Warm, dry skin? That important, too?

 

what's wrong with such a preference ? The some with skinny rather than overweight ? 

I, for one don't like shaved pubes but don't mind tattoos , does it sound weird  or out of acceptable line?

 

[PeterRS]

3 hours ago, z909 said:

I don't even begin to understand why replacing the Vietnamese, Laos and Khmer lads with Thais would be an improvement.   Would you mind enlightening me ?

On my last trip to Thailand, the percentages of lads I saw by nationality were (approximately):

Laos 53%

Thai 33%

Khmer 10%

Myanmar 3%

I got good results with all of these nationalities. 

I may have confused readers when talking about the entertainment business. I not intend this to mean cock (as suggested by Vinapu) or offs. More the entertainment provided by the bar business. Many posters over several years have talked about how the 1990s saw the peak as far as entertainent value in the gogo bars is concerned. The boys actually danced. They were fun and seemed intent on giving customers a good time. The shows were mostly fun and often creative. Was there not also a less aggressive commercial aspect for customers? From my experience of the Bangkok bars over the last few years, the entertainment value in many has greatly diminished. Standing still with hands behind their backs in a slow rotation or at most a form of soft shoe shuffle has replaced real dancing at the same time as prices have risen very quickly way above any reasonable level. In my experience with few exceptions the boys from neighbouring countries mostly seem less concerned about the good time element in the bars. Perhaps I visited on the wrong nights. 

[Patanawet]

And Silom/Patpong after the crisis?

 

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, PeterRS said:

 In my experience with few exceptions the boys from neighbouring countries mostly seem less concerned about the good time element in the bars. Perhaps I visited on the wrong nights. 

This may be not as much to change of demographics on the  bar podium as more to change in audience and it's preferences.  Farangs are scarcer and older, Asians may be more content with boys just standing and shuffling one leg. Good example are common complains  about guys in bars being half or completely dressed. We don't like it but somehow those bars ( BBB, Jupiter ) seem to be pulling  biggest crowds still.

so in short, what constitutes "good time" changed with times. We can see it in any coffee shop anywhere in the world. In our youth 5 youngsters sitting together will be boisterous affair, now each one is glued to smartphone and nary a spoken word seem to be exchanged but they are still together, having good time I guess

[Guest]

2 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I may have confused readers when talking about the entertainment business. I not intend this to mean cock (as suggested by Vinapu) or offs. More the entertainment provided by the bar business. Many posters over several years have talked about how the 1990s saw the peak as far as entertainent value in the gogo bars is concerned. The boys actually danced. They were fun and seemed intent on giving customers a good time. The shows were mostly fun and often creative. Was there not also a less aggressive commercial aspect for customers? 

Thank you for the clarification.

I wasn't visiting Thailand in the 1990s, but have noticed some kind of decline in the way gogo bars are run in the last 14 years.    However, I don't think that's down to a change in nationality of the staff on stage.   It's more down to how the bars are managed in what has been a declining business sector.  

In fact, the best bar entertainment I've seen in the last couple of years was at Toolbox Bar in Phnom Penh.  

[gerefan]

2 hours ago, Patanawet said:

And Silom/Patpong after the crisis?

It’s not Silom, Patpong, Boyztown, Jomtien, or Sunee.

Its Thai Immigration which is going to be the problem. No doubt they will view all Farangs with a great amount of suspicion and invent all sorts of “suitable entry requirements” . Lord knows what they could invent but you can rest assured they will see these restrictions as preventing a recurrence of Covid 19.

Whilst the reopening and restocking of the bars may be a simple matter, getting back into the country again may become an insurmountable problem for some.

And would you be willing to sit in a 400 seater aeroplane for 12 hours so shortly after this epidemic?

Its going to be a very very long haul.

Quote

 

 

[Boy69]

8 hours ago, z909 said:

Admittedly I've never had much success with Vietnamese, but I was still looking to meet them.   One got to my hotel, but "forgot" his ID card, so was sent away.   Another wanted a larger than normal tip, whilst being short of commitment on how he would earn the tip.  So he got rejected.

I had 2 Vietnamese boys on February ,The first boy escort  me 10 nights has amazing body really astonishing polite boy  was lousy at bad but I enjoyed his company very much when we visited Pattaya , Ayutthaya and Kanchanburi together.The second Vietnamese boy I offed from Fresh Boys Bar had amazing body and performed great in bad but refused to kiss or hug. IMO the Vietnamese boys are the most beautiful ones but are reserved and are not flexible at bad , they demand more but do less than  Thai boys.

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, gerefan said:

 

And would you be willing to sit in a 400 seater aeroplane for 12 hours so shortly after this epidemic?

 

I speak for myself only and my answer will be yes, if plane will be flying and countries will be admitting without unreasonable restrictions I will fly. 

My first trip was shortly after 9/11 and I took it against all advice, worked well. I understand virus threat is completely different matter and much harder to prevent  but at one point we need to start normal lives.

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, Boy69 said:

 IMO the Vietnamese boys ....... are reserved and are not flexible at bad , they demand more but do less than  Thai boys.

sounds like you never had a chance to meet with Yoyo from Screwboys or have a massage with  Fiber from Prince 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, vinapu said:

I speak for myself only and my answer will be yes, if plane will be flying and countries will be admitting without unreasonable restrictions I will fly. 

My first trip was shortly after 9/11 and I took it against all advice, worked well. I understand virus threat is completely different matter and much harder to prevent  but at one point we need to start normal lives.

If I happen to have already had & survived Covid before then, I certainly expect to holiday as normal, unless some restrictions prevent this.

I I haven't caught it, I will assess the risk , plus medical insurance etc.     

Obviously the probability of surviving this infection varies with age, state of health and the medical care you could expect to get.  

Hopefully the medical care might improve over the next few months, after some trial and error with various existing drugs.

 

 

[TotallyOz]

13 hours ago, vinapu said:

I speak for myself only and my answer will be yes, if plane will be flying and countries will be admitting without unreasonable restrictions I will fly. 

My first trip was shortly after 9/11 and I took it against all advice, worked well. I understand virus threat is completely different matter and much harder to prevent  but at one point we need to start normal lives.

At one point, yes. But, in April, May or June?  Worth the risk?  IMHO, not in the least. It is a developing situation but I would not be making plans to travel anywhere till I see where this is in 30 days, 60 days, 90 days. My plans for the USA this summer have already been cancelled as I don't want to risk it at this point.

[Guest]

April~June is a bit early.   However, conditions and people's expectations might change significantly by the autumn, although without removing all the risk.

I guess the best scenario would be to have had an extremely mild coronavirus infection and have probably acquired immunity.   Of course, despite one or two articles discussing an intuitive concept of low viral load, there is no proven way to get a mild infection.   Also, considering the average age of board participants is probably over 50, attempting to get a mild infection would be crazy.   

Of course, if I happen to survive a mild of coronavirus, then I'll be looking to book holidays somewhere as soon as practically possible.

 

 

[DrimVoiz]

On 30 March 2020 at 6:51 AM, vinapu said:

sounds like you never had a chance to meet with Yoyo from Screwboys or have a massage with  Fiber from Prince 

Oh, I like Yoyo, I hope I can off him nxt time, he was snatched by another customer btw...and my best sex ever is from a Vietnamese boy!!!