What to know before booking flights

[DivineMadman]

5 minutes ago, ggobkk said:

China is still eligible for VOA...

Not sure that is currently correct.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1876449/thailand-cancels-visa-on-arrival-for-18-countries-visa-exemptions-for-3

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30383919?utm_source=homepage_hilight&utm_medium=internal_referral

via Richard Barrow:

[ggobkk]

Thanks, I saw a different list. This makes more sense...not that sense is actually involved. 

[reader]

8 hours ago, z909 said:

 

I'd like to know how they came up with that list.     Bulgaria has 23 cases.    Romania has 59.   Russia has 34.

Countries NOT on their list include Norway, with 782 cases, or 145 per million people.

I make it  0.2 cases per million people in Russia.

And they have missed several other European countries with over 1000 cases each.

Have I missed something ?     

Or are they absolutely barking mad with their choice of countries ?        

Because basing numbers solely on total cases and not on cases per 100,000 population skews any meaningful comparison of risk analysis.

In the case of Russia, you have to ask yourself if you actually believe that a country as vast as Russia--a nation that exercises a total lock on its media--could only have 34 cases.

 

[ggobkk]

Coconuts Bangkok is reporting that the VOA ban has been suspended one day after it was announced.

a review of the policy may happen next Tuesday.

[DivineMadman]

1 hour ago, ggobkk said:

Coconuts Bangkok is reporting that the VOA ban has been suspended one day after it was announced.

a review of the policy may happen next Tuesday.

That Coconuts article you read might not have been up to date.

Bangkok Post has a good flip-by-flop story.  In any event, the way it has settled down the VOA suspension is real and being put into effect.  They decided they didn't need the cabinet meeting.  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1877614/plan-to-scrap-visa-causes-confusion

In any event, this recent article in Coconuts reports that the VOA suspension is in effect.  Unfortunately it's thrown in with all the other examples of mismanagement and general buffoonery that it's a bit hard to find.  https://coconuts.co/bangkok/news/thailand-contradicts-flip-flops-sugarcoats-covid-19-as-public-teeters-on-pandemic-panic/

So bottom line is the VOA suspension is in effect - until there is another flip on the issue.

[Jasper]

 

Bad news.

US and UK added to the list according to  @RichardBarrow

“The “countries with ongoing local transmission” list for #Thailand has been updated to include America, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden & Great Britain. Taiwan & Singapore have been removed. People coming from these countries may have to do 14-day quarantine.”

[reader]

They seem to be in competition with Trump administration to see who concoct the most most irrational and convoluted restrictions protocols.

Pong's posts are more comprehensible.

[macaroni21]

But, but.... Thailand is the most prepared country in Asia for responding to pandemics, says an October 2019 report (https://www.ghsindex.org/). Thailand ranks #6 among 195 countries surveyed, behind only the US, UK, Netherlands, Australia and Canada. 

The Global Health Security (GHS) Index "is the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations (IHR [2005]). The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU) and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)."

This was widely reported, including in The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/10/24/none-these-countries-us-included-is-fully-prepared-pandemic-report-says/)

[reader]

But the report cited above is dated October of last year, well before the outbreak of the current Corona Virus. If anything, the actual US response has proven to be woefully inadequate when put to the test this year.

So if the US was ranked number one in overall preparedness, what should be concluded about the actual--not theoretical--preparedness of Thailand that ranked number 6? One of the most controversial Thai responses was to advise its own citizens in Italy to remain there.

Trying to manage the response chiefly by continually tweaking a list of restrictions on in-bound visitors (or its own citizens) is proving to be a design-by-committee approach.

It's difficult to even buy a new surgical face mask in Bangkok.

 

[NIrishGuy]

Sorry I'm confused - so are we now suggesting that Thailand has added "the USA and Great Britain" to list saying that should people arrive from those Countries to Thailand they now have to be quarantined for 14 days ?   

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Jasper said:

 

Bad news.

US and UK added to the list according to  @RichardBarrow

“The “countries with ongoing local transmission” list for #Thailand has been updated to include America, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden & Great Britain. Taiwan & Singapore have been removed. People coming from these countries may have to do 14-day quarantine.”

 

This is getting marginally better than the last effort, but they are still screwing it up.

I cannot assess Japan, as it's specific cities only.

They have restrictions applied to the US and the UK.      I've plotted total cases and total active cases on the graph below.    I've highlighted the US and UK, as two of the countries on the list with lower declared infection rates.  

The US is the lowest, but their testing rate is diabolical.   

The UK has a competitive testing rate.    So if the UK has restrictions, then logically countries such as Spain with 10x the UK infection rate should be included ?     This is not difficult.  

Starting at the top of the list and working down would make sense.

 

[NIrishGuy]

so, and again....

I'm confused - so are we now suggesting that Thailand has added "the USA and Great Britain" to list saying that should people arrive from those Countries to Thailand they now have to be quarantined for 14 days ?   

 

[DivineMadman]

46 minutes ago, NIrishGuy said:

so, and again....

I'm confused - so are we now suggesting that Thailand has added "the USA and Great Britain" to list saying that should people arrive from those Countries to Thailand they now have to be quarantined for 14 days ?   

 

•  

Short answer = no.

The key difference is "Ongoing Transmission" vs. "Disease Infected Zone."  U.S./UK are ongoing transmission countries, which currently does not require self-quarantine.

Disease Infected Zone are the worst.  Example right now - Italy.  (China etc.).  They are (1) you need a doctor's note to get on the plane and of course simple T8 form and (2) mandatory self-quarantine.  AND you're self-reporting on the special app.  (NOT the AOT T8 app).  Highest level of supervision in-country other than people in hospitals.  DON'T COME TO THAILAND.

Ongoing Transmission Country means you do not need a doctor's note, you do need to fill out the very simple t8 on your smartphone.  So far you do not have to self-quarantine but you do will have to download a special app to self-report - I think it is at least daily, but not sure - that you are still not showing any symptoms.  So far I haven't come across any word on the travel restrictions they may be imposing.  They might, for example, ask people to practice social distancing.   

This new app - which I haven't seen and hope not to ever see - is meant to replace the health department officials having to call people on the phone to update status.  It may also record your locations.  I don't know.

Of course this can change in a minute. 

 

 

[reader]

Excerpted from Bangkok Post

Doctors issue Stage-3 warning

An association of chest physicians is calling on the government to prepare for Covid-19 to become a "Stage 3", full-blown epidemic in Thailand while slamming the authorities' slow response to the spread of the disease.

On its Facebook page, the Thoracic Society of Thailand issued an emotionally charged statement warning that the country might not be equipped to deal with a drastic escalation in the number of cases.

This week's rise in the number of cases, particularly those attributed to local transmission, indicates that the country is beginning to enter Stage 3, according to the statement.

The society said it has been trying to alert agencies involved of the need for preparations. "And though there is a degree of response, this is still not enough to deal with this major health crisis," according to the official statement.

In Stage 3 -- the highest of an outbreak, all state and private hospitals must identify all patients with severe Covid-19 infections and isolate them in hospitals for treatment to cut the rate of transmission, the society said.

The society also took aim at government agencies responsible for combating the virus: "The virus outbreak has shown that state mechanisms designed to respond to national crises are always one step behind.

"But this does not dampen the spirit of medical professionals who will not surrender to these tiny enemies. We will not bow to those in high places who lack expertise and do not understand how we work. Now is the time for us to prepare for war even if there are no efficient weapons or decisive commanders," the statement said.

According to the Isara News Agency, the emergency operation centre under the Disease Control Department has compiled a report which suggests that Thailand remains unlikely to enter Stage 3 as the existing measures can still theoretically control the spread of the virus.

However, the agency quoted the report urging that social distancing, particularly a ban on mass gatherings, must be implemented in eight high-risk provinces, including Bangkok, this month.

If no proactive measures are put in place, the report warned that infections may reach a point where they could no longer be controlled and the number of infected patients would rise quickly and could reach 2,250 by May, according to projections included in the report.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878380/doctors-issue-stage-3-warning

[macaroni21]

Quite apart from the confusing and contradictory statements emanating from various Thai government officials, my sense is that few of them are even taking advice from epidemiology and medical experts or even referring to data. They are just letting their xenophobia play out.

The ban on visa-on-arrival for Chinese tourists is a good case study. 

From this Bangkok Post story (https://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/easy/1847669/tourism-minister-against-scrapping-visas-on-arrival)

Quote

But many businesses disagree with the proposal, saying Chinese tourists are already declining because of cancellations. Scrapping VOAs could hurt tourism relations.
In China, negative comments are spreading on social media as users voice displeasure at some countries banning visas for Chinese travellers.
Mr Phiphat said recent cabinet meetings have looked into VOA issues but have not decided on any formal resolution.
He said the number of Chinese tourists in Thailand this month is 40% lower than in the same month last year. An 80-90% drop could be expected in the next two months as the Chinese government takes steps to curb travel.

Yet, we have Thailand begging China for supplies. Thailand needs to stock up in preparation for a larger number of cases which can only be expected. From https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878380/doctors-issue-stage-3-warning

Quote

Sukhum Kanchanapimai, permanent secretary for public health, also stressed the need for China to get back to its normal production of medical tools, especially surgical masks and other necessary medical items to fight against the epidemic.
He said the Thai government has already asked for its support in sending 180 million surgical masks, one million N95 medical masks and one million protective medical uniforms.

It's silly to antagonise a huge market like China and still be asking them for help.

It's not even as if China is anymore a disease threat. The World Health Organisation has daily updates on the number of new cases per country. In the case of China, per province. You can see the data for 14 March here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_2

In the last 24 hours China had only 18 confirmed cases and 17 suspected cases. Out of a 1.4 billion population, such numbers do not warrant a ban on travel. China might have been a major source of infection a month ago, but no more.

I would much rather they let in Chinese tourists to help keep the bars and massage parlours alive while we sit in our countries cooling our heels, than to have the whole sector collapse for lack of customers.

The madness even gets to leaving a dead body on the sidewalk for more than six hours. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878280/virus-fears-keep-rescuers-from-handling-body-of-chinese-man

Quote

Thai media reported that officers had tried to contact the Department of Disease Control to send officials to inspect the body as the man was from Fujian province, an area with high coronavirus infection risk. However, the request was rejected.

Is Fujian really a province with high coronavirus risk? Look again at the WHO data. In the last 24 hours, zero confirmed cases; zero suspected cases.

 

[DivineMadman]

30 minutes ago, macaroni21 said:

It's not even as if China is anymore a disease threat. The World Health Organisation has daily updates on the number of new cases per country. In the case of China, per province. You can see the data for 14 March here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_2

The very report in this link has the words "Very High" next to China for Risk Assessment.  VERY HIGH.  

So who is ignoring the epidemiological and experts?????  

Once again.  The current risk assessment for China is "Very High" according to the World Health Organization.  

Personally, it doesn't seem right to me that a non-epidemiologist picks a number for the report for "new" cases and -- contrary to the conclusions of the World Health Organization -- declares that China is no longer a COVID-19 risk, and says the Thais don't take advice from the experts.  

[macaroni21]

And it also says "Global level - Very high".  So why single out any country at all for calibrated measures. Thailand (and all other countries) might as well shut down travel from the rest of the world. WHO will say "very high" because it has declared Covid-19 a pandemic. 

[macaroni21]

If a country wants to calibrate its border control by country, then rely on the data available. As quick as Thailand is to impose entry restrictions, it should be equally quick to lift them when numbers change. If not, one cam imagine that visitors from France, Italy or the US may remained restricted long after cases have diminished in those places. 

[DivineMadman]

Just now, macaroni21 said:

And it also says "Global level - Very high".  So why single out any country at all for calibrated measures. Thailand (and all other countries) might as well shut down travel from the rest of the world. WHO will say "very high" because it has declared Covid-19 a pandemic. 

But at a minimum we can agree that the World Health Organization still lists China as very high risk.  Specifically.  By name.  Not just subsumed into "Global."  Even though China is no longer the epicenter, I was not aware of anyone who thought the virus wasn't still a concern for transmission in China.  

Yes, it is now a global pandemic - according to the WHO.  That doesn't mean it is an epidemic in every country.  Some countries are Stage 1, some are Stage 2 and some are Stage 3.  I didn't think anyone really thought otherwise.  (China is still Stage 3.). So what I think the much-maligned (and often deservedly so) Thai government have started doing is the recognizing those differences.  

The Stage 3 countries that have it the worst (China, Italy, Iran, etc.) have the most restrictive rules.  Next up the U.S. and others, where people can come but are subject to self reporting.  This seems reasonable to me.  (Not saying they haven't made ridiculous flip flop bits of buffoonery.  They have.). Yes something can be a global risk, but that doesn't mean it can't be analyzed with more precision.  

I don't see how anyone can say they think the Thais should remiove the restrictions on visitors from China to help the local tourism sector in one post ("I would much rather they let in Chinese tourists to help keep the bars and massage parlours alive..."), but then turn around and say the only other alternative is to shut the borders entirely.    

 

[macaroni21]

I'm not suggesting that Thailand should have a blanket ban on all arrivals. When we consider that most people will only have mild symptoms even if infected, we must be careful not to make the cure (the meltdown of the economy) worse than the disease. It may be sensible to have differentiated entry controls by country depending on risk, but if so, then one should be data-driven when assessing that risk.

To say that just because WHO labels China as high-risk, even as WHO declares the whole world as high-risk, is enough to single out China for a ban, seems way too simplistic. 

It doesn't make sense to ban all Chinese visitors when that country had 35 confirmed and suspected new cases in the latest report, while visitors from France (with 780 new cases in the last 24 hours) and from Spain (with 1,266 new cases), have looser entry requirements. As an incidence rate (i.e. compared to population), France and Spain are way more risky than China right now. Yet, as far as I can discern (not always easy because of changing and conflicting information), visitors from France and Spain are subject only to registering on an app and self-monitoring as they wander around Thailand. 

From https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-thailand-coronavirus-releases-detailed-measures-12538698

Quote

 

According to the latest list updated by the Disease Control Department on Mar 13, they include France, Spain, Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom, the United States and certain cities in Japan, namely Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, Wakayama, Kanagawa, Chiba, Okinawa, Kyoto and Osaka.

"Travellers arriving from the countries with ongoing local transmission are required to be under observation (supervision without quarantine) in order to ensure self-monitoring for no less than 14 days until the end of the infectious period or the reason for suspicion," TAT said.

They must also record their own symptoms in the reporting system and monitor their symptoms strictly as required by the public health ministry.

"The traveller must notify the disease control officer about the places he/she visits, so that a surveillance officer can closely monitor his/her movement and contacts," TAT added.

 

Don't be too quick to defend the Thai government. Anutin may be the biggest of the buffoons, but that doesn't mean the rest should be beyond criticism either. In short, I am saying Thailand is way behind the curve and the overall quality of decision-making leaves a lot to be desired.

[spoon]

Rather than looking at new case, looking at current active cases might be the reason why china is still in the list. Not to mention this virus actually started from there, and the people sentiment against chinese tourist all around due to this virus, id say thailand is making their decision based on all above. Or they just use total cases to based their decision on, so china definitely top that list. They obviously didnt use the daily new case as guide.

[DivineMadman]

2 minutes ago, macaroni21 said:

It doesn't make sense to ban all Chinese visitors when that country had 35 confirmed and suspected new cases in the latest report, while visitors from France (with 780 new cases in the last 24 hours) and from Spain (with 1,266 new cases), have looser entry requirements. As an incidence rate (i.e. compared to population), France and Spain are way more risky than China right now. Yet, as far as I can discern (not always easy because of changing and conflicting information), visitors from France and Spain are subject only to registering on an app and self-monitoring as they wander around Thailand. 

Even the government of China is not saying all is well and should return to normal.  

Certainly we would hope that Thailand will continue to review the different countries on its various lists.  I would expect them to do.   Maybe it's ok to give governments a little time?   But in any event, the fact they haven't gotten around to putting Spain on the same list as Italy yet doesn't mean China comes off the list.  The U.S. didn't restrict travelers from Spain until Friday, and only added the UK yesterday (I think they added the UK).  France moved to Stage 3 only yesterday.    

 

37 minutes ago, macaroni21 said:

Don't be too quick to defend the Thai government. Anutin may be the biggest of the buffoons, but that doesn't mean the rest should be beyond criticism either. In short, I am saying Thailand is way behind the curve and the overall quality of decision-making leaves a lot to be desired.

Hmmm....I have said "Not saying they haven't made ridiculous flip flop bits of buffoonery.  They have."  Nothing limited to Anutin.  

But I think the criticism should be a reasonable.  And to come back to the same point - your criticism was that the government doesn't listen to experts and then you make an amateur epidemiological argument that China travel restrictions should be lifted because you think it's all ok there, but it seems that the real experts don't share that view.  So it all seems a bit biased, eh?

 

22 minutes ago, spoon said:

Rather than looking at new case, looking at current active cases might be the reason why china is still in the list. Not to mention this virus actually started from there, and the people sentiment against chinese tourist all around due to this virus, id say thailand is making their decision based on all above. Or they just use total cases to based their decision on, so china definitely top that list. They obviously didnt use the daily new case as guide.

And - at least in the U.S. according to the CDC - they expect the disease to go through peaks and troughs.  It's complicated stuff, I think.

 

[gpfun69]

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapore-residents-advised-to-defer-all-non-essential-travel-for-next-30-days-as-part-of

From 11.59pm on Monday (March 16), all travellers - including Singapore citizens, permanent residents, long-term pass holders and short-term visitors - entering Singapore with recent travel history to Asean countries, Japan, Switzerland, or the United Kingdom within the last 14 days will be issued a 14-day stay-home notice (SHN).

For noting, if there are plans to visit Singapore from Thailand.

 

[reader]

From The Thiager

Visitors from 15 locations must show health certificates, insurance before boarding flights to Thailand

Clarifying earlier reports, Thailand’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAT) say that it will require air travellers, whether Thai or foreign, coming from 15 locations to show health certificates proving they are free of the Covid-19 coronavirus, and proof of insurance covering virus treatment, before boarding flights to Thailand. Earlier reports were that passengers from all locations would have to present the documents.

The CAAT’s governor Chula Sukmanop announced the measure and other requirements yesterday as part of the government’s efforts to contain the disease. The conditions are to take effect on Saturday. He said arriving passengers who were in China, including Hong Kong and Macau, Iran, Italy or South Korea in the past 14 days will be quarantined. These areas have been designated as “disease infected zones”.

Chula says that when passengers check in, airlines must verify whether they have visited coronavirus epidemic areas in the previous 14 days. They must require passengers from those infected zones and 11 other transmission areas to present health certificates issued no more than 72 hours before the flight departs. The certificates must guarantee that the passengers are free of the virus.

The 11 transmission areas are Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, specific cities in Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the USs. The Japanese cities are Aichi, Chiba, Hokkaido, Karagawa, Kyoto, Okinawa, Osaka, Tokyo and Wakayama, according to the Bangkok Post.

Airlines must also require that passengers from these places to have insurance covering Covid-19 treatment in Thailand, up to at least 3.1 million baht (100,000 US$).

Passengers who cannot provide the documents won’t be allowed to board their flight to Thailand. Those who are allowed to board must also provide the address of their accommodation in Thailand, either by written forms or by the Airports of Thailand mobile phone app.

The CAAT also requires airlines to seat passengers as far from each other as possible, and to regularly disinfect their planes. Chula added that Thai disease control officials are authorised to isolate aircraft and quarantine passengers.

Airlines that fail to comply will have to pay for the transport, quarantine and treatment of passengers, and bear the cost of related cases of disease control.

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/visitors-from-15-locations-must-show-health-certificates-insurance-before-boarding-flights-to-thailand

[Jasper]

“From Sunday on the government will extend the requirement of medical certificates and health insurance to cover all visitors to the country regardless of nationalities to curb the spread of the coronavirus.”

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1882315/health-certificates-required-for-all-visitors