Face Masks, Gel etc

[reader]

NOTE -- If the article from Science magazine cited below turns out to be correct, it may be the first piece of good news about the spread of the virus.

Abstracted from Science Magazine

Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed

A paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus made many headlines because it seemed to confirm what public health experts feared: that someone who has no symptoms from infection with the virus, named 2019-nCoV, can still transmit it to others. That might make controlling the virus much harder.

Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. “There’s no doubt after reading [the NEJM] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. “This study lays the question to rest.”

But now, it turns out that information was wrong. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German government’s public health agency, has written a letter to NEJM to set the record straight, even though it was not involved in the paper. 

The letter in NEJM described a cluster of infections that began after a businesswoman from Shanghai visited a company near Munich on 20 and 21 January, where she had a meeting with the first of four people who later fell ill. Crucially, she wasn’t sick at the time: “During her stay, she had been well with no sign or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China,” the authors wrote. “The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.”

But the researchers didn’t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms.” Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)

Given how fast data are coming out amid the growing global crisis, it’s good to read even peer-reviewed papers with some extra caution at the moment, Lipsitch says: “I think peer review is lighter in the middle of an epidemic than it is at normal speed, and also the quality of the data going into the papers is necessarily more uncertain.”

Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says calling a case asymptomatic without talking to the person is problematic. “In retrospect, it sounds like this was a poor choice,” he says. However, “In an emergency setting, it’s often not possible to talk to all the people,” he adds. “I’m assuming that this was an overstretched group trying to get out their best idea of what the truth was quickly rather than somebody trying to be careless.”

The Public Health Agency of Sweden reacted less charitably. “The sources that claimed that the coronavirus would infect during the incubation period lack scientific support for this analysis in their articles,” says a document with frequently asked questions the agency posted on its website yesterday. “This applies, among other things, to an article in [NEJM] that has subsequently proven to contain major flaws and errors.” Even if the patient’s symptoms were unspecific, it wasn’t an asymptomatic infection, says Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. “Asymptomatic means no symptoms, zero. It means you feel fine. We have to be careful with our words.”

The fact that the paper got it wrong doesn’t mean transmission from asymptomatic people doesn’t occur.  Fauci, for one, still believes it does. "This evening I telephoned one of my colleagues in China who is a highly respected infectious diseases scientist and health official," he says. "He said that he is convinced that there is asymptomatic infection and that some asymptomatic people are transmitting infection." But even if they do, asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote in a situation report on Saturday. “More data may come out soon. We will just have to wait,” Lipsitch says.

The German cluster does reveal another interesting aspect about the new virus, Drosten says. So far most attention has gone to patients who get seriously ill, but all four cases in Germany had a very mild infection. That may be true for many more patients, Drosten says, which may help the virus spread. “There is increasingly the sense that patients may just experience mild cold symptoms, while already shedding the virus,” he says. “Those are not symptoms that lead people to stay at home.”

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

 

 

 

[Boy69]

I will arrive to Bangkok on Friday although friends and family begg me to cancel the trip due tge corona virus after more than two years absence , what is the current situation in the bars , shopping malls , tourist attractions at the moment ?

[Guest]

Bangkok is operating as n9rmal.

[Guest]

Here is a link to the WHO page, with recommendations on protecting yourself.

The use of an alcohol based hand rub is one of the recommendations.   

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

[floridarob]

You'll notice the things on the top of the list is what I said the ship's Dr told everyone. Most hand sanitizers seen in restaurants (even on cruise ships) are anti-bacterial and not alcohol based....washing hands properly and frequently as well as keeping hands away from nose and mouth are key.

There are certain situations during which hand washing with water and soap are preferred over hand sanitizer, these include: eliminating bacterial spores of Clostridioides difficile, parasites such as Cryptosporidium, and certain viruses like norovirus depending on the concentration of alcohol in the sanitizer (95% alcohol was seen to be most effective in eliminating most viruses).^[31] In addition, if hands are contaminated with fluids or other visible contaminates, hand washing is preferred as well as when after using the toilet and if discomfort develops from the residue of alcohol sanitizer use.^[32] Furthermore, CDC states hand sanitizers are not effective in removing chemicals such as pesticides.<sup>[33]

alcohol based rubs effectiveness depends on the percentage of alcohol....</sup>

 

Source: Ship's Dr., Wikipedia and WHO page  

[Guest]

The two bottles of hand sanitizer I picked up are alcohol based.  As is the alcohol spray.

One would hope that board members are smart enough to check what they are buying, rather than dismiss gels and alcohol sanitizers based on some highly misleading anecdote from a sailor.

[anddy]

this whole thing and the self-protection is way overblown. Yeah, use common sense (I will maybe wear a mask at the airport tomorrow and definitely use alcohol on the fingerprint scanner), but on the whole the risk is so low I can't be bothered. It's not ebola, either after all. Chances are, EVEN IF I get this virus (chance something like 1 in 500,000 if we have 20 cases in BKK, probably less coz I don't get in contact with Chinese), I won't die from it coz I'm not old with pre-existing conditions. If my personal mortality probability is, say, 1%, then my overall risk is 1 in 50 million. Again, I can't be bothered with all this hyper activity about protection and stuff. 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, anddy said:

this whole thing and the self-protection is way overblown. Yeah, use common sense (I will maybe wear a mask at the airport tomorrow and definitely use alcohol on the fingerprint scanner), but on the whole the risk is so low I can't be bothered. It's not ebola, either after all. Chances are, EVEN IF I get this virus (chance something like 1 in 500,000 if we have 20 cases in BKK, probably less coz I don't get in contact with Chinese), I won't die from it coz I'm not old with pre-existing conditions. If my personal mortality probability is, say, 1%, then my overall risk is 1 in 50 million. Again, I can't be bothered with all this hyper activity about protection and stuff. 

Risk: You are correct in saying Thailand has only 25 declared cases.

However, elsewhere the number has been increasing at 10-20% a day.  So the numbers can increase very rapidly.   

Also, the Thai statistics seem to be very much an anomaly.  Are the Thai authorities only announcing statistics every few days ?    

Also, part of the reason for taking precautions is collective.   If no one follows recommendations, the transmission rate increases until most people have the virus.   Even if some of us are in hood health and have a much lower mortality rate, the overall death rate is estimated at 2% by the WHO.   Last time I looked, 2% had already died, before counting all the ones yet to recover.

I don't worry about this.  But I do take sensible precautions.

As for the fingerprint scanners, an illuminated piece of glass presumably shows up grime more than certain other surfaces.   For example,   tap handles, lift buttons, door handles and grab handles on public transport.

 

 

[daydreamer]

When I entered Thailand through Suvarnabhumi immigration last month, the fingerprint scanner screen would not work for me.  I repeatedly attempted to scan my fingers, following the instructions.  Finally the female immigration officer stepped out of her cubicle to see what was wrong.  She went back and got some glass cleaner spray and a paper towel, as the glass screen was filthy with greasy fingerprints and obviously hadn't been wiped clean in some time.

After returning behind her computer, I again slowly attempted to scan my prints several times, and nothing.  Once again, she left her booth and came around to my side.  She brought a small squeeze bottle of orange gel with her, and squeezed it onto both of my hands, telling me to rub it onto my fingers.  After this, the scanner worked flawlessly.  

Those scanners are a major source of germs, considering how many people touch them.  I always carry a couple Wet Ones brand individual hand wipe packets in my pocket when I travel by plane.  As soon as I was processed through, I wiped my hands, removing the orange gel.  This was before the news of the corona virus.

If you aren't familiar with the Wet Ones brand, they kill 99.9% of germs, including the Norovirus.  Wet Ones contain a chemical called Benzalkonium Chloride, making them effective against both bacteria and viruses.  I like them, because since they are wipes, they also remove dirt (or orange gel) from your hands, whereas hand sanitizer would only spread dirt around on your hands.  Regular alcohol wipes will kill some viruses including flu viruses, but are ineffective against the Norovirus.  Wet Ones will kill both flu and Norovirus, so they are my choice.  

The individual packets are small, about the size of a packaged tea bag, making them convenient to slip into your pocket, or in a carry on bag.  The gold standard is still soap and water for at least 20 seconds, but that's not accessible when you're at the immigration checkpoint.  

Here are sources to verify Benzalkonium Chloride is effective:

https://www.romper.com/p/why-wont-most-hand-sanitizers-kill-norovirus-theres-only-one-that-will-36063

https://writersblock15.wordpress.com/tag/wet-ones/

[Guest]

Delete

[macaroni21]

This is so tragic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795

Quote

 

A Chinese doctor who tried to issue the first warnings about the deadly coronavirus outbreak has died, the hospital treating him has said.

Li Wenliang contracted the virus while working at Wuhan Central Hospital.

He had sent out a warning to fellow medics on 30 December but police told him to stop "making false comments".

 

It is also rather unnerving. He was 34 years old and no report suggested that he had any underlying disease.

[DivineMadman]

Putting the best spin on this possible, it appears that the Thai government is respectfully asking everyone or at least all tourists - including farang tourists - to wear masks.  

 

[llz]

So that everyone can grasp what that Minister said (source : thai-language.com) :

ไอ้

interjection, vulgar

[a derogatory vulgar curse] damn; [a vulgar prefix placed in front of fierce animal names or used when insulting a male]

[Guest]

What does he propose to do with Thais not wearing facemasks   ?

 

[reader]

 Excerpted from Bangkok Post (7 Feb.)

615 persons being monitored for infection in Thailand; 390 hospitalised

Two returnees from Wuhan have been placed in hospital isolation for thorough examination as health officials warn people of the need to protect themselves from coronavirus infection, even though the number of local cases has stabilised.

The Public Health Ministry reported on Friday that the number of confirmed cases of infection with the new virus in Thailand was steady at 25, and 16 of them remained at hospitals. Most of the hospitalised people were recovering. The condition of a male coach driver who also had tuberculosis was stable.

The number of patients being monitored for infection stood at 615, with 390 of them still in hospitals.

To read full article go to:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1852799/two-more-wuhan-returnees-isolated

The number of patients being monitored for infection stood at 615, with 390 of them still in hospitals.https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1852799/two-more-wuhan-returnees-isolated

[Jasper]

Experts Warn Coronavirus May Be Spreading Undetected in Indonesia, Thailand 

By Steve Baragona

February 6, 2020 08:35 PM

 

Passengers wearing medical masks walk as they arrive at international arrival terminal of I Gusti Ngurah Rai airport following an outbreak of the new coronavirus in China, in Bali, Indonesia, February 4, 2020. Picture taken February 4, 2020. REUTERS…

The number of coronavirus cases reported in Indonesia and Thailand is well below what scientists would expect, given how closely connected the countries are to the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. 

That raises concerns that the virus may be spreading undetected in those countries, potentially adding fuel to the epidemic that has so far killed over 600 people and sickened over 31,000.   

"Indonesia has reported zero cases, and you would expect to have seen several already," said epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, co-author of a new study posted on medRxiv.

Thailand has reported 25 cases, "but you would expect more," he added.  

Cambodia has reported just one case, which Lipsitch said is "not very likely," but "not completely beyond what you would expect." 

The research is based on estimates of the average number of airline passengers flying from Wuhan to other cities around the world. More passengers would presumably mean more cases. 

Immigration officers wearing protective suits prepare immigration for Thai nationals evacuated from China's Wuhan province, the center of the coronavirus epidemic, at the U-Tapao airport in Rayong province, Thailand, Feb. 4, 2020.

Going undetected?

Health systems in Indonesia and Thailand may not be catching cases, Lipsitch said, which could create problems for the rest of the world.  

"Undetected cases in any country will potentially seed epidemics in those countries," he added, which can spread beyond their borders. 

Lipsitch's group's research is one of three recent studies to say that the virus was likely to reach Indonesia.

None of these studies has gone through the normal scientific process of review by outside experts, however. During this fast-moving outbreak, researchers have been posting findings online and on preprint servers to share what they hope will be helpful information. Experts caution that these publications should be taken with an extra grain of salt. 

But researchers contacted by VOA said the findings were plausible and help address some lingering questions. 

In China, the number of people infected has been climbing daily. But outside China, the outbreak has barely budged. That has puzzled health experts. 

Where are they?

"This [study] does get at, I think, a significant question that a number of us have, which is: Where are these cases?" said virologist Christopher Mores at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health, who was not involved with the research.  

"It's either that transmission is demonstrably different outside of the main outbreak zone for some reason that has not yet been described," Mores said, "or we're just not capturing it and counting it, and there's a failure to detect." 

This study suggests the latter, he added. 

FILE - Students line up to sanitize their hands to avoid the contact of coronavirus before their morning class at a high school in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Jan. 28, 2020.

Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia are screening travelers from China at the border.   

"Indonesia is doing what is possible to be prepared for and defend against the novel coronavirus," the World Health Organization's Indonesia representative, Dr. Navaratnasamy Paranietharan, told the Sydney Morning Herald.

However, he added, "there is still more work to do in the areas of surveillance and active case detection." 

'Beef things up'

These countries are not the only places with shortcomings in their public health systems, said epidemiologist Art Reingold at the University of California-Berkeley's School of Public Health. 

"I wouldn't want people to think everyone else is doing a great job. We need to beef things up in a lot of places," he added, and not just in the developing world. 

"We think we're doing a good job," he said. "People think they're doing a good job in France or whatever, but I don't think we can afford to make that assumption." 

While some countries start to cut connections with China in hopes of keeping out the disease, Mores said, those measures may not help if the virus is spreading under the radar in countries that don't. 

"There's certainly plenty of places, especially in the developing world, that are not going to be able to shut down their economies because of this coronavirus outbreak," he said. "And the danger there is that those countries are even more susceptible" because of weaker public health systems.   

And that puts the world at risk, Mores added. 

 

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/experts-warn-coronavirus-may-be-spreading-undetected-indonesia?amp&__

 

[DivineMadman]

SO the backstory to the Minister's outburst is that he and other officials went to Siam station and to hand out masks.  Some farang tourists refused even to accept the masks.  I think the Minister's outburst is unwarranted, but I also think the farang tourists could simply have smiled and pocketed the masks in a respectful and courteous way.  Richard Barrow has pointed out that apparently the minister wasn't offering masks individually wrapped in plastic.  And he was not wearing gloves.  Even so, I have more sympathy for the Minister than for the farang who insisted on rebuffing the Minister and his colleagues.  (Go figure, farang who don't show proper respect to the locals.). Take the mask and walk away and pocket it.  Not a big deal.  

The Minister's point -- of course, an overstatement -- is "most farang are recent visitor "tourists," we don't know where they have been, they may be asymptomatic but communicable, so wear a mask, farang dude."

Neither side is without blame in this episode, but I think Thailand officials can legitimately ask people coming into the country now to wear masks - just in case they may be asymptomatic but communicable.  

 

[floridarob]

10 hours ago, z909 said:

What does he propose to do with Thais not wearing facemasks   ?

 

Make them use alcohol wipes....

[vinapu]

we have 2 epidemics running at once, coronavirus and fear. I wonder which one is worse for a  health of world's  population

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Seven new virus cases found

The Public Health Ministry reported seven new cases of the coronavirus on Saturday, including three Thais and four Chinese.

The new cases brought the total reported in the country to 32, among the world's highest number of infections outside of China.

"The seven new cases are all in hospital," said Suwannachai Wattanayingcharoenchai, director-general of the Disease Control Department.

One of the cases was part of the group of 138 evacuated from China's coronavirus epicentre of Wuhan on Tuesday, Dr Suwannachai told reporters.

The other two Thais had exposure to tourists, he said.

One of the cases was part of the group of 138 evacuated from China's coronavirus epicentre of Wuhan on Tuesday, Dr Suwannachai told reporters.

Among the four Chinese, three are members of the families of previously reported cases, while the other is a tourist from a "risky area" in China, said Suwannachai.

Among the 32 cases Thailand has reported so far, 23 are Chinese while nine are Thais.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1853289/seven-new-virus-cases-found

[macaroni21]

21 hours ago, Jasper said:

The number of coronavirus cases reported in Indonesia and Thailand is well below what scientists would expect, given how closely connected the countries are to the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. 

That raises concerns that the virus may be spreading undetected in those countries, potentially adding fuel to the epidemic that has so far killed over 600 people and sickened over 31,000.   

"Indonesia has reported zero cases, and you would expect to have seen several already," said epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, co-author of a new study posted on medRxiv.

I've just been looking at a global map of detected cases and the entire African continent is supposedly free of this coronavirus. I find it hard to believe, given the number of Chinese in so many African countries now.

Mack.

[macaroni21]

20 hours ago, DivineMadman said:

SO the backstory to the Minister's outburst is that he and other officials went to Siam station and to hand out masks.  Some farang tourists refused even to accept the masks.  I think the Minister's outburst is unwarranted, but I also think the farang tourists could simply have smiled and pocketed the masks in a respectful and courteous way.

While I do agree that the farangs could have accepted the masks even when they didn't think they needed it, there are two other angles:

1.  How many of them knew that this was a VVIP minister, whose face needed to be saved?

2. Consider too the common situation where as we walk down any street, all sorts of product promoters try to give out free gifts/samples; we've all developed a reflex habit of saying 'no'.

Mack.

[spoon]

22 minutes ago, macaroni21 said:

I've just been looking at a global map of detected cases and the entire African continent is supposedly free of this coronavirus. I find it hard to believe, given the number of Chinese in so many African countries now.

Mack.

Also few news article now mentioned zero case reported in indonesia seems very unrealistic too.

[vinapu]

and Pattaya seems to be virus free, am I right ?

[reader]

Haven't noticed any reported virus deaths. Just a few of usual kind in the past 24 hours:

PATTAYA: An elderly German man was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head in Bang Lamung district of Chon Buri on Saturday morning. The body of the 75-year-old man, whose name was withheld pending notification of relatives, was found inside a room at a resort in tambon Na Klua, said Bang Lamung police.

CHON BURI: The body of a man of unknown nationality has been found on the ground near a luxury hotel building in Pattaya, with multiple broken bones consistent with a fall from a great height. The body of the man, aged around 50, was found near the entrance of the Grand Centre Point Hotel on Pattaya Sai Song Road i