The Year 2030 in Gay Thailand

[TotallyOz]

We have seen a lot of changes in gay Bangkok and throughout gay Thailand. The scenes have changes, the apps changed the way we find guys, massage venues have changed and the cities have changed. Now, looking forward 10 years, what do you see in 2030?

[reader]

I think the status of the Thai and Chinese economies will be the overriding factor, particularly the value of Silom real estate. Twilight was the mainstay of gay Bangkok for a long spell until the land below and sky above beckoned developers. Now that Patpong has quickly absorbed that role, it's success over the next decade will be partly ruled by the same forces.

The Silom venues (including Moonlight and Jupiter) need a stable influx of Chinese customers to make the numbers work. The proliferation of massage shops scattered around the area (especially along Surawong) likewise would have a tough time without them. Not a gay venue (although many of its customers are), Prime is one of the few that could survive.

Because of its large local following, Soi 4 is somewhat immune. Nevertheless there could be a pruning of venues in a serious economic downturn like the financial crisis of 1997.

At the moment, the economy of Thailand is fairly stable but it faces increased headwinds, the most immediate of which is the strong baht. Beyond that it's political future is one of those "black swan" events that economists worry about.

The booming economy of China is expected to slow during the decade but continue to dominate the region and--to a lesser degree--the rest of the world. A prosperous China means a continued flow of customers--male and female--that fuel gay Bangkok. ASEAN neighbors can be expected to slowly increase while western clientele numbers will be lucky to remain stable.

As for individual venues, there has always been an on-going evolution of clubs. That will continue as a few go by the wayside while others consolidate or go out of business. Nothing new there.

That said, gays--regardless of where they're from---know that Bangkok is one of the best destinations where they can feel unencumbered by their preference.

 

[vinapu]

Bangkok and Pattaya will hold as favorite gay destinations although Sunee will be thing of the past. Boyztown will survive but BoyzBoyzBoyz will change name and will be club for ladies with sign ' un-escorted gentlemen not admitted" , presumably not escorted by  lady. It will be few more men massage places though. 

Alt Heideleberg restaurant on Beach Road will cease to exist so whenever vinapu comes to Pattaya he will be hungry.

Go-gos will be allowed in Jomtien but restricted to certain area only.

Fast train from BKK to Utapao will be about to start service .

Bangkok finally gets integrated public transit ticket which will include even train service within city boundaries.

Pavillion hotel will be demolished along with that arcade but most of bars will find place in sois Wall Street and  Patpong Post Office  and newly enlivened soi 6  where Tawan bar will change hands, name  and location within soi but will be still known for muscled guys. There will be at least 2 bars with sign " men only admitted " and one where farangs won't be welcomed ( no sign but it will be well know that their boys are not going with Farangs)

after some political upheaval  baht will lose some of it's luster and at 42.7 for a USD even 3000 tip for short time and 5000 for long time   will not seem so excessive.

Boys in bars  will be available for 1/2 hr private dance in cubicle on  premises for 1500.

Oasis restaurant after 9 years hiatus will return to it's former location on Suriwong, Silom Plaza will have few more male massage places to complement Arena and will be Gay Central after soi 4  will be redeveloped and it will be where MyHero will be relocated.

One of former bar guys will become  well known businessman, first ever not to be shy to admit  how he started his star career and his picture hosting one of his former clinet in his company lavish headquarters will be hit on social media. He will praise that client for learning from him that his original job was work like any other , just less dusty.

Chatuchak market will be moved to railway lands behind old Hualampong station and station itself.

20 baht bill will be replaced  with coin and new 2000 baht colored green will be introduced.

Madrid Tavern will announce that it's closing it's  door at end  of  year.

Alcohol sale restrictions at daytime will be lifted and after police closed one of girl bars for excessive noise all of the sudden music level in all bars will become bearable thanks to new device mandated to install in all venues  shutting down all power if decibel lever crosses 92.5 or something.

Hot tea will become fashionable and will be available in all bars.

Thai BL movie will receive Oscar .

Old Robinson building on corner of Silom across from Lumpini will finally be demolished to make place to a highrise 127.3 m higher than MahaNakhon with rollercoaster on the top.

ChristianPFC new husband will buy this site from MIchael.

One of our members from Philippines will be owner of one of boy bars in soi 6 so members will have permanent meeting place while there.

Bandanna guy barker for Moonlight will announce his retirement.

Great Britain will announce that is ditching pound and is unilaterally taking euro as it's currency.

Queen Elizabeth II will contiunue to be world's oldest reigning monarch and first  ever over 100 

 

[paulsf]

How many of us will need a lift or escalator to get to gogo’ s that are upstairs?  

[vinapu]

20 minutes ago, paulsf said:

How many of us will need a lift or escalator to get to gogo’ s that are upstairs?  

nobody , there will be always 4 strong guys available to carry  needy up for a reasonable 200 baht fee

[kokopelli]

                 kokopelli will have moved on to a better place. 

[10tazione]

All the old houses between Rama IV, Silom, Sathorn and Chong Nonsi will have a sign "We will go on for 10 years" or be a construction site or already be replaced with some new condo / office / hotel. There will be 1 building in this area that is higher than Mahanakon. Moonlight will move there and be the first gogo rooftop bar in the world. On the walls in the elevator you will see videos of former shows. They will have guest models from Korea, but they only go with Asian girls. If you off a boy, you get a free entrance ticket for next time.
Due to bad economy, there will be more Thais and less Cambodians, Vietamese and Burmese working in the gogos.

Vinapu will celebrate his 1000st "cuddle only" off of a moonlight model.
I will celebrate finishing watching my 1000st BL story.

[anddy]

@vinapu's predictions are so detailed and range from very interesting to funny to (lot's of) wishful thinking haha. The last two are not related to Thailand, but still very plausible (especially the very last). 
But the most outrageously bold must be this one:

14 hours ago, vinapu said:

Bangkok finally gets integrated public transit ticket which will include even train service within city boundaries.

  

My own prediction:
Given the excesses of luxury condo construction there will be some kind of property market crash (not nessecarily IN 2030 but sometime between now and 2030)

Oh, and of course another coup.

[ggobkk]

Vinapu neglected to mention that Madrid Tavern is closing to allow Netflix to film “the secret keepers of Patpong” based on what the Madrid ladies witness or heard whispered over the decades”. 

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, 10tazione said:

 

Vinapu will celebrate his 1000st "cuddle only" off of a moonlight model.
 

I know that predicting is hard, specially predicting the future but that's is way too bold. Make it 10th which means only I have 7 more to go. 

While those models are extremely attractive to my eyes I predict other options will continue to be better value for money, even in Moonlight atop of that new building where they relocate

[10tazione]

On 1/25/2020 at 6:28 AM, Michael said:

We have seen a lot of changes in gay Bangkok and throughout gay Thailand. The scenes have changes, the apps changed the way we find guys, massage venues have changed and the cities have changed. Now, looking forward 10 years, what do you see in 2030?

Does anyone dare to post a new prediction for 2030?

[Guest]

On 1/27/2020 at 1:10 AM, vinapu said:

I know that predicting is hard, specially predicting the future but that's is way too bold.

Yes.  There were probably more changes in 2020 than some of us expected in the 10 years to 2030. 

There is a lot to be said for arranging our affairs so we're not dependent on predictions being right.

[CurtisD]

I will base my predictions (read ‘wild flights of the imagination’) on a few macro trends as I can’t hope to compete with Vinapu on street-level prognostication. 

1. The Chinese will be the major customers as more of them achieve the middle class income that supports travel.

2. European presence will decline due to events in the UK. Britain’s post-Brexit economy will not be strong enough to support current living standards, leading to a revival of Victorian era poverty and income disparities which in turn increase the number of young men willing to use their physical charms to get by. Cultural differences with Thailand will lead to a more behind-closed-doors commercial expression of this abundance of flesh – refer to the Cleveland Street scandal for what this looked like 130 years ago. With Britain becoming Europe’s Issan, European customers will be diverted there, as will some Chinese.

3. As the Thai economy continues to grow and more Thai enter the middle class, the bar boys will become overwhelmingly imports from neighboring countries and possibly the UK.

4. As climate change induced flooding increases in frequency and severity Bangkok real estate will become increasingly less desirable. The maps below are from the Nov 2 2019 Bangkok Post and show the area below predicted annual flood heights by 2050 under two different mappings of the true land height – the very red one is the more accurate. The most low-lying parts will be abandoned to low-rent use first, possibly by 2030, creating an entire new entertainment zone. Think of 1920s Berlin meets Bangkok with neon illuminating permanently flooded streets and punters moving between buildings via second story walkways.