reader Posted December 25, 2019 Posted December 25, 2019 Excerpted from the Bangkok Post Thai economy's rocky road in 2020 The Thai economy will continue to grow slowly in 2020, albeit slightly faster than this year. It is projected to expand at 2.5-3.0%, compared with 2.5% in 2019, in line with faster growth in the global economy next year. The Thai economy's main drivers in 2020 will be recoveries in export volumes and tourism, and greater government spending. Moreover, relocation of investment from China to Thailand as a result of the US-Sino trade war will be more evident in 2020. However the trade war will continue to pose serious downside risks as its affects on trade, the Chinese economy, and investor confidence persist. Thai exports in 2020 will continue to be affected by the global trade slowdown, but volumes will be slightly higher than in 2019. The ongoing US-China tariff war has resulted in slower trade growth and deceleration of the Chinese economy, impacting Thai exports which were expected to contract by 2% in 2019. With trade hostilities expected to ease in 2020, Thai exports should grow modestly. Moreover, Thai exports to the US, which expanded by almost 15% in 2019, will continue to grow as the US diverts imports away from China, to Thailand and other countries. Exports of hard-disk drives and compressors to the US, for example, have expanded rapidly in 2019. The baht will maintain its strength in 2020. Capital inflows from the recovery in exports, tourism and foreign direct investments in 2020 will keep the currency strong. The baht hit an average of 31.05 per US dollar in 2019 and is forecast to average 30.30 in 2020, similar to its end-2019 level. It will continue to be stronger than the currencies of Asean's top five economies in 2020. https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1823679/thai-economys-rocky-road-in-2020#cxrecs_s Quote
vinapu Posted December 25, 2019 Posted December 25, 2019 6 hours ago, reader said: The baht will maintain its strength in 2020. ..... The baht hit an average of 31.05 per US dollar in 2019 and is forecast to average 30.30 in 2020, similar to its end-2019 level we will gnash our teeth and still will be coming thanks to savings made by reducing consumption at home, at least that's my plan and advice I gave myself Quote
Guest Posted December 27, 2019 Posted December 27, 2019 On 12/26/2019 at 2:14 AM, vinapu said: we will gnash our teeth and still will be coming thanks to savings made by reducing consumption at home, at least that's my plan and advice I gave myself Very good advice. I find there is usually some consumption at home which can be deleted, substituted or otherwise optimized with no reduction in quality of life. Quote
vinapu Posted December 27, 2019 Posted December 27, 2019 53 minutes ago, z909 said: Very good advice. I find there is usually some consumption at home which can be deleted, substituted or otherwise optimized with no reduction in quality of life. "some" ? I'd say a lot, after all we can wear only 1 shirt at the time and all others we have , be it 5, 15 or 25 will be still hanging in the closet non-productively . Usually we think reducing spending on this or that is impossible unless we really forced to, then all of the sudden it becomes not only possible but even desired. Who needs new car when old one is running and reward for keeping it another year is Thai trip with massage and LT every day of such vacations. GWMinUS, llz and santosh108 3 Quote
spoon Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 8 hours ago, vinapu said: "some" ? I'd say a lot, after all we can wear only 1 shirt at the time and all others we have , be it 5, 15 or 25 will be still hanging in the closet non-productively . Usually we think reducing spending on this or that is impossible unless we really forced to, then all of the sudden it becomes not only possible but even desired. Who needs new car when old one is running and reward for keeping it another year is Thai trip with massage and LT every day of such vacations. Only thing im not willing to reduce is consumption of boys back home too. I know im in trouble sooner or later. Lol Quote
reader Posted January 2, 2020 Author Posted January 2, 2020 From Bangkok Post Baht’s sudden drop shows battle lines drawn The baht plunged as much as 1.8% on Thursday, the biggest decline since 2007, to 30.226 against the dollar in early Asia trading. That almost erased all the gains it made in the past three sessions. "It’s likely to be central bank intervention given that the central bank has mentioned that they’ll be fighting against baht strength," said Mingze Wu, a foreign-exchange trader at INTL FCStone in Singapore. It may also have been due to traders betting the baht will strengthen overextending their positions, he said. The currency appreciated almost 9% in 2019, the best performer in Asia, as its large current-account surplus lured investors seeking haven assets during an intensifying US-China trade war. Authorities have battled markets to keep gains in check, taking measures including interest-rate cuts and easing rules on outflows. Liquidity in the currency market is normalising even as the baht remains volatile, Bank of Thailand assistant governor Vachira Arromdee said on Thursday. There still remains sharp fluctuations in the baht as the market adjusts to the buying and selling of dollars, she said. The central bank remains concerned about the baht’s appreciation and is ready to consider additional measures, according to minutes of its Dec 18 rate meeting released on Thursday. The government also weighed in, with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha saying on Thursday that the need for new currency measures is being considered. A joint commission between the central bank and the finance ministry has also been formed to tackle the issue, Gen Prayut added. The country's reserves and current-account surplus are key factors luring investors to the baht. The central bank’s foreign-cash pile stands at $222 billion, while the current-account surplus was $3.38 billion in November. Policy makers need to encourage overseas investments by local investors to trim the current-account surplus, said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader in Bangkok. Domestic investors’ risk bias is to stay at home and the barrier to change that behavior is “massive,” he said. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1827524/bahts-sudden-drop-shows-battle-lines-drawn vinapu 1 Quote
reader Posted January 6, 2020 Author Posted January 6, 2020 NOTE -- This article takes a comprehensive look at many factors that will affect Thailand's economy in the new year, including banking, tourism and housing. It may be of greater interest to expats and long-stay visitors. One thing that stood out for me was the remarks about the banking industry. I interpret this to mean higher user fees in all categories, a trend that has expanded in the past few years. Excerpted from Bangkok Post Even though the chief executives of top Thai companies expect the country's 2020 economy to continue to be stuck in the slow lane, they are optimistic that the growth pace will improve from last year, albeit at a muted canter. Banthoon Lamsam, Kasikornbank's chief executive, paints a bleak outlook for Thailand's economy and banking industry in 2020. "Given the likelihood of low growth everywhere, including Thailand, there is no growth story to sell to potential investors," he said at a recent analyst meeting. "Banks' ability to make a profit is weaker than 20 years ago. Things are getting tougher, such as making loans and gaining fee income -- the sorts of things we've enjoyed over the past couple of decades." Non-interest income growth is shrinking, and financial institutions have struggled to find replacements in recent years. Net fee and non-interest income used to be big items in the income pile but have dwindled every year, Mr Banthoon said. KBank predicts the Thai economy to expand by 2.7% this year, up from 2.5% projected for 2019. Both years' growth, if the forecasts hold, are below growth potential of 3.5-4%. Aswin Techajareonvikul, chief executive of Big C Supercenter Plc, the operator of Big C hypermarkets, said that although Thailand's GDP is below that of many regional peers like Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, the group remains confident in the economy's long-term ability to recover to healthy growth and become a leader again. Big C is expanding via small retail outlets (Mini Big C) to better reach customers in Bangkok and major cities nationwide, as well as investing in IT facilities and big data to better understand consumer lifestyles and varying needs. Preecha Ekkunagul, chief executive of Central Pattana Plc, the SET-listed property and retail developer under Central Group, said economic prospects for 2020 are stronger than in 2019 because there are no additional negative risks this year. Supattra Paopiamsap, chief executive of residential developer Pruksa Real Estate Plc, said the best the property market can hope for in 2020 is flat growth. The market slowdown could continue as many volatile factors remain. "Several negative factors are still present this year. The main one is negative sentiment," she said. "In reality, the situation is unlikely to be as bad as people imagine, but they are not confident." The number of international tourist arrivals in 2020 is expected to grow by 5-7% regardless of external factors, said Chairat Trirattanajarasporn, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand. To reach this target, the industry must find effective solutions to maintain positive momentum and support the overall economy. One is attracting quality tourists who spend more while travelling, Mr Chairat said. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1829659/vision-from-on-high#cxrecs_s Quote
reader Posted January 9, 2020 Author Posted January 9, 2020 From Bloomberg News Thailand to Ease Capital Outflow Rules Again, Governor Says Thailand’s central bank will take further steps to ease restrictions on capital outflows in coming months as it tries to curb gains in the baht, Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said. The Bank of Thailand plans to increase the amount of proceeds exporters can hold overseas, liberalize foreign-currency deposit accounts and take steps to enable insurance companies to invest more abroad, Veerathai said in an interview Wednesday at his Bangkok office. The Bank of Thailand has been struggling to rein in the baht after it gained almost 6% against the dollar over the past year, making it the best performer among Asian currencies. The appreciation has hurt exports and curbed tourism, denting two key industries in the trade-reliant economy. The baht weakened immediately after the governor’s comments Wednesday, and was up 0.1% against the dollar at 30.314 as of 8:40 a.m. Thursday in Bangkok. “All in all, we think the baht has appreciated too much,” the governor said. “People might say it has been the best-performing currency, but in Thailand we’re not happy about it. When the baht is not moving in line with fundamentals of the economy, it should not be considered the best performer.” The central bank already has taken several measures to counter the baht’s gains: It cut interest rates to a record low last year, imposed measures in July to counter short-term inflows, and in November relaxed rules to spur outflows. “It seems that the Bank of Thailand is able to control the baht now,” said Jitipol Puksamatanan, chief strategist at Krung Thai Bank Pcl in Bangkok. “I believe that it would restore the relationship between the baht and other Asian currencies, to support exports.” Veerathai outlined additional steps that will be taken: in the next 1-2 months, increase the amount of proceeds exporters can hold overseas to $1 million per lading bill, from the current $200,000 cap, a step that will cover about 80% of Thailand’s exports in the first half of the year, liberalize the foreign-currency deposit account framework so individuals and local companies can keep foreign currency in Thailand relax rules so insurance companies can invest abroad more easily https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thailand-ease-capital-outflow-rules-103127485.html vinapu 1 Quote
reader Posted January 16, 2020 Author Posted January 16, 2020 From Reuters Thailand's 2020 rice exports forecast to fall to lowest in seven years BANGKOK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Thailand's rice exports in 2020 are forecast to drop to their lowest in seven year, the country's rice exporters group said on Thursday, as the strong baht reduces the competitiveness against other shippers. Exports from Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter of the commodity after India, are expected to drop to 7.5 million tonnes this year, the Thai Rice Exporters Association said. That would be the lowest volume since Thailand exported 6.6 million tonnes of rice in 2013. The grim forecast came after Thailand fell short of its initial 2019 target by exporting 7.8 million tonnes of rice last year. Thai rice export volumes have declined for two consecutive years since hitting a record 11.60 million tonnes in 2017. "We're being optimistic when we give the 7.5 million tonnes forecast," Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the exporters association, told Reuters. "This year looks worse than the last, because of even more apparent price differences." Thai benchmark 5% broken rice RI-THBKN5-P1 prices have remained high well into 2020, after trading significantly higher than the Vietnamese variety throughout 2019 mainly because the baht rose in value relative to other currencies. Thai prices were about $75 a tonne higher than Vietnamese cargoes last week. Drought - which has been declared in 18 provinces in the central, northern and northeastern farming regions - also threatens to reduce supply in 2020, driving up local rice prices. Thailand's dry season started in November and usually lasts through April, although authorities said it could go on through June this year. https://in.investing.com/news/thailands-2020-rice-exports-forecast-to-fall-to-lowest-in-seven-years-2101505 vinapu 1 Quote
ggobkk Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 The rise in the value of the baht is probably the most significant cause in the drop in rice sales. Not to mention, the China-USA trade agreement has a pledge that China will buy rice from the US. Quote
