A big first world problem

[reader]

From Bloomberg Financial

Thailand Has a Developing Economy and a Big First World Problem

Getting old can be hard under any circumstances, and harder still when you’re poor. That’s the predicament for Thailand, the developing country first in line to face the consequences of a first-world-style baby bust.

Data published last month by the United Nations show births in Thailand have dropped to a level on par with Switzerland and Finland, two ultra-wealthy countries with which it has almost nothing else in common.

Those numbers mean that more than a quarter of Thailand’s people will be over 60 by 2030—and most will be poor. The International Monetary Fund says a shrinking labor force will hold back economic growth by as much as a full percentage point every year for the next two decades.

Rapid-aging is a condition that, until now, has really only afflicted the richest nations because low birth rates tend to go hand-in-hand with higher incomes. The best-known exception is China, where the one-child policy (abandoned in 2015) has set the stage for a population squeeze around mid-century. But it’s Thailand that is breaking new, treacherous ground by becoming the first big country to get old before it’s had a chance to become prosperous.

“Clearly this is going to be an issue for Thailand and a challenge,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist who covers Southeast Asia at Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte in Singapore. “Thailand is kind of stuck in the middle: It’s an emerging country and yet it faces the demographic headwinds you see in advanced economies.”

For years, economists and government planners assumed that overpopulation was the world’s main demographic worry, not population loss. But that idea may be wrong.

In the last 50 years, birth rates have dropped in every country on the planet. The change is happening as people move to cities, where women have more access to education and contraception. Fewer babies is good for many families and also the environment, but there are economic consequences, too: fewer consumers, workers and tax payers, and fewer people to care for the elderly.

Since 2000, Thailand has urbanized faster than any other big country besides China, which is the main reason fertility rates are falling now. But the push to have smaller families started back in the 1970s, when an anti-poverty program swept the country led by an activist named Mechai Viravaidya, who became known as “Mr. Condom.”

Over two decades, Thailand’s fertility rate plunged from 6.6 to 2.2.

Young kids meet Mechai Viravaidya, aka Mr. Condom, in 1990. Photographer: Taro Yamasaki/The LIFE Images Collection via Getty Images

 

One potential source of relief, though, may come from Thailand’s openness to immigration—an attitude that separates it from other places with population problems like South Korea and Japan. Foreigners make up 10% of Thailand’s overall workforce, with higher numbers at the biggest companies.

“Foreign workers are more than willing to fill the gap,” said Pakpoom Srichamni, president of Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction Pcl, a Bangkok-based firm of 10,000 workers, 30% of whom aren’t Thai.

Even so, the country is already becoming a regional laggard, with average annual growth dropping every decade since the 1990s, from 5.3% to 4.3% to the mid-3s now. In the first quarter, growth clocked in at 2.8%, the slowest in more than four years. And with inflation stuck below 1%, interest rates under 2% and a rapidly appreciating currency, parts of the country’s economic profile are starting to resemble aging Japan more than developing neighbors like Indonesia or the Philippines.

Continues at

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-thailand-baby-bust/

[martinsen]

While Thailand is not a third world country is is at best second world.  As long as Thais cling to their culture they will never have a first class place to live.  Unfortunately, their culture is bred into them and not likely to change anytime soon.  I have never met a people who like to beat around the bush more and who have to dance around any and every issue.  No confrontation.  Just talk and talk and accomplish nothing.

[vinapu]

32 minutes ago, martinsen said:

 Just talk and talk and accomplish nothing.

Not quite, Bangkok  skyline is of first class city not to mention second to none erotic industry

[a447a]

2 hours ago, martinsen said:

 I have never met a people who like to beat around the bush more and who have to dance around any and every issue.  No confrontation.  Just talk and talk and accomplish nothing.

Go and meet the Japanese!

[Londoner]

Is the "First" World so much better? We shoot each other in the supermarket and schools and drop  bombs on cultures and nations we don't like. Unless car ownership-or in the US, assault-weapon ownership- is considered the  summit of achievement, then we should welcome the fact that some people don't care for it.

I've travelled widely over the past decades; there's nowhere I've visited, however poor, that hasn't got something to teach us. And that includes Thailand.

[Boy69]

There is no wrong on Thais cling to their culture not necessarily their culture is inferior to the Western culture ,We the Western have much to learn from the Thais for their respect to the elders, authorities and religious , their politeness and solidarity.

[DivineMadman]

Personally I think the casual racism on the board is astonishing, but it seems to be limited (I hope) to a few complainers.  

The adage among the happier expats in Thailand is, "Don't try to change Thailand.  Let Thailand change you."  You don't necessarily have to believe that 100%, but it's an essential thought experiment for any good expat or traveler.  

[reader]

10 hours ago, martinsen said:

As long as Thais cling to their culture they will never have a first class place to live. 

It is my fervent hope that they continue to cling to their culture. It's one of the reasons that has kept me coming back going on 18 years now.

41 minutes ago, DivineMadman said:

 "Don't try to change Thailand.  Let Thailand change you." 

It has certainly changed my life at a time when it most needed changing.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IMO, the root cause of the diminishing birth rate has more to do with how wealth is distributed. That's not just an issue in Thailand, but in many nations.

Thankfully, we have many opportunities to affect this issue as we choose how to distribute our baht.

[vinapu]

8 hours ago, Londoner said:

 there's nowhere I've visited, however poor, that hasn't got something to teach us. And that includes Thailand.

yes , yes and yes.

Whenever I arrive in BKK in middle of the night and walk through deserted Patpong at 3 a.m I say to myself " fuck, show me another place in the world where you can be in empty red light district in middle of the night and feel completely safe" and this is just an example of what I admire about the country- feeling safe days week , 25 hours par day.

3 hours ago, DivineMadman said:

Personally I think the casual racism on the board is astonishing, but it seems to be limited (I hope) to a few complainers.  

The adage among the happier expats in Thailand is, "Don't try to change Thailand.  Let Thailand change you."  You don't necessarily have to believe that 100%, but it's an essential thought experiment for any good expat or traveler.  

I'd not be throwing big words like racism at people who may not like this or that in other cultures or countries.

Not liking Israeli  airlines , not to mention politics does not make one antisemitic nor laughing at way UK is handling Brexit is reason to consider Caucasian inferior race.

Adage you quoting is very wise and universal,  worth teaching all who are considering or forced to relocate to other country or society and is a receipt for happier life. After all if one moves to Greenland and hates snow, what's the point. ( that's why I'd never move to Thailand, I hate heat and were missing 4 seasons ).

Travellers are different category and should be given some slack as complainers. Often we find ourselves travelling somewhere just out of curiosity and in such  a case we are not under obligation to like or even less praise of what we see. Very few people , if any , go to Auschwitz,  My Lai  or Killing Fields expecting fun

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, reader said:

........me coming back going on 18 years now.

It has certainly changed my life at a time when it most needed changing.

 

it can be said safely that we have at least those 2 things in common

[faranglaw]

On 8/9/2019 at 8:56 AM, vinapu said:

yes , yes and yes.

Whenever I arrive in BKK in middle of the night and walk through deserted Patpong at 3 a.m I say to myself " fuck, show me another place in the world where you can be in empty red light district in middle of the night and feel completely safe" and this is just an example of what I admire about the country- feeling safe days week , 25 hours par day.

I'd not be throwing big words like racism at people who may not like this or that in other cultures or countries.

Not liking Israeli  airlines , not to mention politics does not make one antisemitic nor laughing at way UK is handling Brexit is reason to consider Caucasian inferior race.

Adage you quoting is very wise and universal,  worth teaching all who are considering or forced to relocate to other country or society and is a receipt for happier life. After all if one moves to Greenland and hates snow, what's the point. ( that's why I'd never move to Thailand, I hate heat and were missing 4 seasons ).

Travellers are different category and should be given some slack as complainers. Often we find ourselves travelling somewhere just out of curiosity and in such  a case we are not under obligation to like or even less praise of what we see. Very few people , if any , go to Auschwitz,  My Lai  or Killing Fields expecting fun

In view of political developments in the UK and US over the past few years, is it really so out of line to suggest Caucasians are an inferior race? Just a thought...

[PeterRS]

On 7/27/2019 at 7:07 AM, reader said:

Over two decades, Thailand’s fertility rate plunged from 6.6 to 2.2.

I think we must remember that the primary reason for the big drop in the birth rate is the success of Mechai's promotion of condom use in the 1980s and 90s. The government realised that the high birth rate was unsustainable. One reason was the lack of knowledge about birth control. So Mechai started a campaign to promote an understanding of condoms and greater condom use. It is no surprise that many older Thais still call condoms "mechais". That resulted in a very fast drop in overall birth rates. Many residents and tourists have visited Mechai's restaurant chain, Cabbages and Condoms.

22 hours ago, faranglaw said:

In view of political developments in the UK and US over the past few years, is it really so out of line to suggest Caucasians are an inferior race? Just a thought...

Caucasians are certainly in the minorty. Already the Han Chinese are the majority ethnic group and Mandarin the world's most spoken language. Are we inferior? Not sure, but we are certainly doing a good job of going in that direction.

[reader]

9 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I think we must remember that the primary reason for the big drop in the birth rate is the success of Mechai's promotion of condom use in the 1980s and 90s. The government realised that the high birth rate was unsustainable. One reason was the lack of knowledge about birth control. So Mechai started a campaign to promote an understanding of condoms and greater condom use. It is no surprise that many older Thais still call condoms "mechais". That resulted in a very fast drop in overall birth rates.

Mechai's solution, I agree, addressed a legitimate issue at the time. But as well intentioned was his efforts, they came with unintended consequences and eventually became victims of that success.

Like China's one-child policy, they may solve a problem in the near term. But any time government policy tweaks the birth rate it results in a reversal of fortune in future generations.

Chinese couples then began favoring male birth, eventually skewing the ideal male-female ratio to the point that there were insufficient females to sustain the population.

 

 

 

[PeterRS]

14 hours ago, reader said:

Mechai's solution, I agree, addressed a legitimate issue at the time. But as well intentioned was his efforts, they came with unintended consequences and eventually became victims of that success.

The problem is surely not just one of a policy gone wrong. Like all third world countries (even if bordering on second world) many rural Thai families traditionally needed a large number of children to tend their fields and ensure they would be looked after in their old age. Some inevitably would gravitate to the cities but some had to stay at home. It was this very large group that Mechais campaigns targeted. But then as Thailand's economy started to take off in the 1980s, some of the wealth trickled down and there was a reduced economic need for families to have so many children.

At 2.2 kids per family, Thailand would be at slightly above replacement rate. However, not quoted from the Bloomberg article in the OP is that Thailand has dropped quite a bit below that. It states the rate now is  1.5. So Thailand is only fractionally ahead of Japans 1.43 and a little further ahead of Singapore at 1.16. Japan has introduced measures to keep older people in work voluntarily. Thailand is stuck with a retirement age of 60 and no political will to raise it. Singapore has tried for decades not just to get couples to produce more babies but to get men and women actually to marry. Nothing seems to work. So Singapore imports a huge number of foreign workers. Of a population of 5.64 million, only 3.47 million are Singapore nationals! That I assume is the route Thailand will have to take.

And we wonder why there are so few Thai boys in the go-go bars compared to 30 years ago! 

 

[reader]

9 hours ago, PeterRS said:

And we wonder why there are so few Thai boys in the go-go bars compared to 30 years ago! 

As the wise man said, do the numbers.

I believe that Thailand is already well on the way to relying on foreign workers. New construction would grind to a halt without them now, as would the fishing industry. And when you try to cull them from the bars and massage shops, there's not enough locals to go around.

I think the best advice is to enjoy well it lasts. As the economies of its southeast Asian neighbors take off, there will be fewer and fewer Thais to supply their country's needs.