Election

[lins]

I arrive in Thailand next week. What effect will the election have on the bar opening and services during the election

[Guest]

See topic:

http://gaybuttonthai.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9575

Expect alcohol bans and probably bar closures.   One of the holidays in February had an alcohol ban, so some of the bars were closed.   I didn't look too far as I had a lad booked on a phone app.

If there is any bar boy you want to see again, get his Line ID.    Use the phone apps.

[pong]

its always sundays, on 24 the official and 17 the pre one for registered advance voters.

Alco ban from the eve before (why so many farang cry woolf about that escapes me), that means SALE of alco, not consumption, untill close of boothes. This sometimes means that some general use Thai bars close too, as they feel they cannot profit, but for the m2m gay section this has never been so. Several boys who take it seriously may for the day move to their faraway hometown as you must vote where you are registered. Many dont bother-and for the Burmese/Khmer its of coruse no issue.

Oh-and another little Thai wonder_right now any street is clogged up by those billboards, like from Ms. Lilawadee (with her car may dee)-by magic these will all disappear in 1 hour after close of vote-booth.

[spoon]

Alcohol ban on election day seems weird isnt it? How else they want to celebrate the win? I can definitely understand the alcohol ban on buddhist religious day though. Even islamic country malaysia have no alcohol ban enforced, only ban alcohol for muslim, not for anyone else, tourist or citizens that is not muslim.

[Londoner]

I'm more worried as to what may happen when the generals lose the vote....tanks on the streets?  They won't go quietly, that's for certain.

[DivineMadman]

8 minutes ago, Londoner said:

I'm more worried as to what may happen when the generals lose the vote....tanks on the streets?  They won't go quietly, that's for certain.

Who knows, but with luck we're a ways away from that just yet.  

For the reasons that some people scoff at the "election" (scare quotes), the junta-drafted constitution was drafted to preserve their power for 5 or 20 years, depending on how you look at it.  The constitution puts junta appointees in control of the senate for 5 years and the voting rules for allocating seats in the parliament are meant stack the deck (as it were) against what the rest of us might consider the popular vote. And the much talked-about provision that permits the naming of an unelected Prime Minister was written with The Great General in mind, I believe.  The current junta-led government has adopted 20 year plans in various areas of government, and I believe the constitution requires that any later government follow those plans.  (Seems a particularly terrible idea to me in the fast-changing times.)  And it is no easy thing to change the constitution.  So even if the pro-regime party doesn't win the popular vote, this regime isn't going anywhere just yet.

All just guessing, but I think the current junta will follow the traditional path of the many previous coups before this one and the election will be whatever it is and everyone will make a hash of the it all under the new constitution -- for a while.

[reader]

The following article from Singapore-baes Channel News Asia presents an objective and comprehensive take on the elections without touching on controversial topics.

From Channel News Asia (12 Mar. 12)

For the first time in nearly five years, Thailand will leave the military rule for democracy. Here is what you need to know about the Thai election on Mar 24 and the political game that would determine its future.

BANGKOK: The upcoming election in Thailand is set to be one of the most complicated votes in the country’s history, with the final outcome of who will form the next government dependent on a series of factors.

On a very simple level, though, the vote on Mar 24 will be the first general election under the new Constitution of 2017. It should mark a transition towards re-establishing a democratically elected government after nearly five years of rule by a military regime which took power through a coup in 2014.

However, while some people believe the upcoming election will restore democracy, others believe there is scope for a subtler shift that could see the powerful military maintain its grip on Thai politics.

“It’s not a regular vote under democratic rules but a means for regime change, where the military rule is reborn to continue its power,” said political scientist Dr Pitch Pongsawat from Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/thailand-election-democracy-after-military-rule-11280022

[Londoner]

The Myanmar model? an election to keep the UN et al of its collective back, the  appointment of a useful idiot who will toe the line (even if she has won the Nobel Prize) and the same policies as before, ensuring the continued dominance of the ruling-class.  The only thing that hasn't been tried yet is Buddhist Nationalism - seen to great effect in the massacres of the Rohingya and Tamils. Let's hope it stays that way, though we should expect more repression of the Red Shirts who probably represent a majority of Thais in poorer areas.

[Patanawet]

On 3/11/2019 at 8:59 AM, pong said:

its always sundays, on 24 the official and 17 the pre one for registered advance voters.

Alco ban from the eve before (why so many farang cry woolf about that escapes me), that means SALE of alco, not consumption, untill close of boothes. This sometimes means that some general use Thai bars close too, as they feel they cannot profit, but for the m2m gay section this has never been so. Several boys who take it seriously may for the day move to their faraway hometown as you must vote where you are registered. Many dont bother-and for the Burmese/Khmer its of coruse no issue.

Oh-and another little Thai wonder_right now any street is clogged up by those billboards, like from Ms. Lilawadee (with her car may dee)-by magic these will all disappear in 1 hour after close of vote-booth.

Oh dear -- more gobbledegook.

Maybe you should read through your messages before you post them.

[vinapu]

18 hours ago, reader said:

The upcoming election in Thailand is set to be one of the most complicated votes in the country’s history, with the final outcome of who will form the next government dependent on a series of factors.

 

and I have a feeling none of those factors will be actual result of that voting, God , this forum and whole Thai nation my witness how I wish to be wrong

[vinapu]

15 hours ago, Patanawet said:

Oh dear -- more gobbledegook.

Maybe you should read through your messages before you post them.

I'd wait till 444th post before I criticize other poster  

[reader]

20 hours ago, Patanawet said:

Oh dear -- more gobbledegook.

Maybe you should read through your messages before you post them.

I don’t think English is his first language.

Thais overlook our mangled attempts at their language if we even go as far as to try to speak it. 

And they don’t call it gogglegook. 

[Patanawet]

On 3/13/2019 at 3:14 PM, reader said:

I don’t think English is his first language.

 

I think a form of English IS his first language.

He sometimes writes perfect English.

I would NEVER comment on a Thai's English. I'm truly grateful when they say to me how good my Thai is when I've only just thanked them.

[DivineMadman]

12 minutes ago, Patanawet said:

I think a form of English IS his first language.

He sometimes writes perfect English.

Yes sometimes Pong's English is just fine.  And sometimes Pong is also known to lapse into a rather mocking Thai-nglish (Thaibonics?), so gentle ribbing about language seems acceptable.  (Also Pong says he has a great massage shop but doesn't share the name, so he's fair game.   ) 

[Patanawet]

On 3/13/2019 at 9:57 AM, vinapu said:

I'd wait till 444th post before I criticize other poster  

Sorry vinapu but I think we all have the right to criticise each other.

It looks as if this is only my 4th post but I have actually been on incarnations of this board for a couple of decades. For some reason when the board had it's latest change, I was unable to log in with my original name etc.

I  promise you that I am really the last person to criticise someone using other than their native tongue,  having proved to be a dreadful linguist in two foreign languages (even having lived for twenty years in each country). Oh,and I can't swim or drive a car either.

[reader]

Agree.

 

[Patanawet]

10 minutes ago, DivineMadman said:

Yes sometimes Pong's English is just fine.  And sometimes Pong is also known to lapse into a rather mocking Thai-nglish (Thaibonics?), so gentle ribbing about language seems acceptable.  (Also Pong says he has a great massage shop but doesn't share the name, so he's fair game.   ) 

 

i remember years ago, in Monty's time, There was a rather distinguished looking and sounding Englishman who used to hang around the Sunnee area who wrote on the boards under different names in naughtily undecipherable English.

It used to be  fun trying to work out what he was saying.

Was his name John something?

[reader]

Returning to the topic, a record voter turnout is predicted.

From Bangkok Post (14 Mar.)

The March 24 election could see an unprecedented voter turnout, according the King Prajadhipok's Institute (KPI). The institute found almost 95.9% of people who responded to its latest survey, carried from March 7-10, said they intend to vote. It is the fifth poll-related survey the KPI has conducted with 1,540 respondents nationwide, according to KPI secretary-general Wutthisan Tanchai. 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1644260/voter-turnout-tipped-to-hit-new-high

[Londoner]

The question is, how many parties have been allowed to stand?

[DivineMadman]

9 hours ago, Londoner said:

The question is, how many parties have been allowed to stand?

Is the issue that too many or too few have been allowed?  

With the possible exception of some true fringe groups, I believe the only meaningful party that has - so far - been banned is Thai Raksa Chart, which is/was an off-shoot of the Pheu Thai Red Shirts (Thaksin Shinawatra's peeps).  Worth noting that the Pheu Thai party has not been disbanded and is contesting the election vigorously.  They take it seriously.  

As I understand it, the Thai Raksa Chart party was created to take advantage of the way seats will be allocated under the new constitution.  

To oversimplify:  let's pretend the drafters of this constitution thought that Pheu Thai would win "too many" seats in the lower house of parliament on a direct proportional vote, so instead the drafters set up rules that try to award more seats to the smaller parties, and less to the bigger parties.  The smart folks at Pheu Thai said, "Hey - let's split into two and take advantage of this, and the way the rules work we actually will end up with more seats in parliament than if we stayed as one bigger party.  

All well and good and then in a massive strategic error, Thai Raksa Chart/Thaksin thinks they'll win the game with a bold move by nominating the Princess as Thai Raksa Chart's PM candidate, as near as we can tell without first securing royal approval.  So bye bye Thai Raksa Chart and now the very good ploy of getting more seats by splitting into two looks to be a bad idea since now one of the two is gone.  Was the banning of Thai Raksa Chart motivated by "politics" ?  My guess guess would be almost certainly.  But maybe such a briiant/stupid move should be disqualifying.  BUT in any event, worth again reminding ourselves that Pheu Thai has not been banned.

Also in the background, over the past two-three years a few smaller parties that Thaksin had bought or scooped up to make his party in the first place were peeled off by the military or left Pheu Thai for their own reasons, so there are a bunch of smaller parties that are in play and/or have a history of being available to the higher bidder (usually Thaksin).  

So (1) the junta-drafted constitution is intended to keep junta firmly in control of the Senate and the country for a while yet, but (2) there is a lot of uncertainty over how the voting and seat allocation rules will actually play out. Is there a chance the General faces a defeat in the popular vote?  I think there is.  Would he take it well.  Nothing suggests he would.  Will the junta then try to blow up their own constitution in the midst of the coronation celebration.  I think no.  

I think as happens in any parliamentary system where no party wins a majority, there will be lots of backroom action (and not in the fun way) as people figure out who has the seats in parliament and whether coalitions are available.  Abhisit (former Democrat PM) has come out saying he would not support the General as PM.  

If you have have aspirin or a gin & tonic here is a link to a Bangkok Post article explaining the rules for the lower house.  Shitshow

[Londoner]

As I understand it, Pheu Thai expected to work with Thai Raksa and an agreement was made not to compete for the same seats. When Thai Raksa was banned it was too late for Pheu Thai to submit their own candidates. The last poll that I saw-two weeks ago- suggested that the popular vote will go against the junta  but, as you say, to what extent that will be reflected in the balance of power is uncertain.

I tend towards the cynical view; how many military dictatorships across the world have ever willingly given-up power?  f they did, who would pay for their collections of Rolexes?

 

[DivineMadman]

6 hours ago, Londoner said:

As I understand it, Pheu Thai expected to work with Thai Raksa and an agreement was made not to compete for the same seats. When Thai Raksa was banned it was too late for Pheu Thai to submit their own candidates. The last poll that I saw-two weeks ago- suggested that the popular vote will go against the junta  but, as you say, to what extent that will be reflected in the balance of power is uncertain.

I tend towards the cynical view; how many military dictatorships across the world have ever willingly given-up power?  f they did, who would pay for their collections of Rolexes?

 

I'll confess I'm still confused if you are still raising a question about the number of parties competing, which was what you had raised earlier?  And I think the point about Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart not competing for the same seats is explained when put in the context of the way the constitution changed the allocation of seats.  I didn't think anyone thought that they were really independent parties (i.e., independent of Thaksin).  

I don't want to carry water for the junta, but Thai history itself is full of examples of the military staging coups and then handing over power to democratically elected governments- albeit for a while.  So certainly it happens in Thailand.  One can question whether this time it will be different, but it does happen here.  

[PeterRS]

On 3/14/2019 at 5:24 PM, Patanawet said:

 

i remember years ago, in Monty's time, There was a rather distinguished looking and sounding Englishman who used to hang around the Sunnee area who wrote on the boards under different names in naughtily undecipherable English.

It used to be  fun trying to work out what he was saying.

Was his name John something?

I think his name was John Booth. At one time he had been an English teacher so there was no reason for him to write as he did other than he was having a bit of fun. Sadly he died in very unfortunate circumstances. He had been treated for some form of cancer and thought he was cancer free. Then it returned but he had no cash left for a return to hospital. I seem to recall friends in Bangkok looked after him as best they could and he died in their home.

[anddy]

parties contesting: a whopping 81 (there's even an LGBT party, I see there posters around Silom)

source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/thailand-election-democracy-after-military-rule-11280022

[DivineMadman]

7 hours ago, anddy said:

parties contesting: a whopping 81 (there's even an LGBT party, I see there posters around Silom)

source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/thailand-election-democracy-after-military-rule-11280022

But the Pirate Party wasn't allowed.

I just got back from Indonesia, where there's also an upcoming election.  Sign everywhere there as well.