Baht rallies on

[reader]

From Bangkok Post (17 Feb.)

GDP data, smooth election could fuel baht rally

The baht is looking to repeat its performance as one of Asia’s best currencies last year. Monday’s growth data will shed light on a key pillar of its recent strength and may help it stay in pole position at least through the first quarter.

After being beaten by only the yen in 2018, the Thai currency has outshone all its regional peers so far in 2019, rising by 4% against the dollar. A robust domestic economy has helped it outperform both the won and Taiwanese dollar, which also have the benefit of a current-account surplus.

“The baht’s outperformance is attributable to the real strength of the nation’s fundamentals, including the current-account surplus,” said Hironori Sannami, an emerging-market currency trader at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo. “That also includes the fact that it is less susceptible to the US-China trade war relative to other surplus economies like South Korea and Taiwan.”

Thailand is also less vulnerable to a downturn in the technology sector unlike South Korea and Taiwan, increasing the attractiveness of the baht, the analyst added.

The tourism sector, by one measure worth about a fifth of the economy, is also recovering, noted Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp in Singapore.

Data due Monday is expected to show the economy grew 3.6% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, its 12th consecutive quarter of above 3% growth. The Bank of Thailand said in its Feb 6 policy statement that the economy should continue gaining traction even though external demand might slow.

In fact, the health of the economy was one reason the Bank of Thailand has kept a hawkish tone, unlike many of its increasingly dovish global peers. Despite leaving rates unchanged at 1.75% at the latest meeting, two policy members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 25 basis point increase, signaling a future rate hike remains a possibility, and further bolstering the relative attractiveness of the baht.

Continues at

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1630510/gdp-data-smooth-election-could-fuel-baht-rally

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Cross rates from XE currency (17 Feb.)

 

 

 

[anddy]

must you rub it in?

 

[reader]

Actually, I like--hope--to believe that we'll see a reversal in the baht's strength later this year.

Consider this excerpt from the article above:

Despite leaving rates unchanged at 1.75% at the latest meeting, two policy members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 25 basis point increase, signaling a future rate hike remains a possibility, and further bolstering the relative attractiveness of the baht. 

It disregards the fact that Thailand's economy is primarily based on what it exports. Raise the value of the baht by hiking rates, you inevitability hurt exports because other countries will be able to offer goods at lower prices.

A glance at the 10-year EURO vs THB chart suggests that we're nearing the top of the baht's strength range over the previous decade.

 

[ggobkk]

Perhaps, just perhaps, a strong baht going into an election is good for some...

[reader]

9 hours ago, ggobkk said:

Perhaps, just perhaps, a strong baht going into an election is good for some...

Impossible!

TIT.....lol

 

[KevKev01]

I noticed Bath is going stronger lately and in few months (or in a year or so), we’ll find 300-500 bath entrance fees to bars are not as affordable as what we feel now. 

[vinapu]

9 hours ago, KevKev01 said:

I noticed Bath is going stronger lately and in few months (or in a year or so), we’ll find 300-500 bath entrance fees to bars are not as affordable as what we feel now. 

than it will be less affordable but my guess is , we still will go

[Brummbaer]

The stronger the Baht, the less Bang for the Buck we get. 

I remember getting 44+ baht for 1 Euro, about 6 years ago.

I've just seen a bank statement, my bank gave me an exchange rate of 34,420 for 10'000 baht drawn from an ATM on May 4, 2019.

To bang a buck now costs me 28% more than 2013 - and the hotels and boys have not increased their rates. 

 

[spoon]

It hits almost every other currencies. Thai baht realy outperforms most countries in currency exchange. Malaysian ringgit used to be worth more than baht few years ago, when oil price is at its highest. Now its 10 baht = 13.2 MYR, before 10 baht = 0.9 MYR. More than 30% increase. 

[abidismaili]

Does someone know why the baht is so strong? Is the Thai economy doing so very well? Thai people get richer every year (like Chinese people and Vietnamese people?)

I wonder if the Netherlands still had its own currency and not the Euro if the exchange would also be as bad today. Something tells me it wouldn''t.

[kokopelli]

10 hours ago, abidismaili said:

I wonder if the Netherlands still had its own currency and not the Euro if the exchange would also be as bad today. Something tells me it wouldn''t.

Euro

[traveller123]

I believe Thailand has a trading and balance of payments surplus with the rest of the world.

My inexpert logic thinks that this should make the baht appreciate against those countries with deficits which includes the counties where most of us send our income from.