Cross currency rates

[reader]

What a difference a year--or even six months--can make.

 

if you want to get a handle on what's happening with the baht vs. various currencies, I find this site simple to use.

 

The USD has been among the poorer performers vs the baht this year.  Meanwhile, the Euro, Australian and Canadian currencies have rebounded. The pound has been the more erratic.

 

This doesn't predict the future but selecting the 10-year chart view can be instructive.

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=1Y

[vinapu]

 

... chart view can be instructive.

 

 

actually it is instructive  not even in a way I expected.

 

It looks that my budget from Dec 2016 would buy me two more long time offs if I went to Thailand today LOL

 

So studying it gives nice perspective how currency fluctuation can actually affect our fun.

[Guest]

This doesn't predict the future but selecting the 10-year chart view can be instructive.

 

 

I agree & would say the 10 year chart is the best to look at.  

 

I'm not sure what the current chart looks like but it was not too long ago that the GBP-JPY 10 year chart showed the max number of JPY per GBP was twice the minumum.    And that's for 2 G7 economies.

 

I find XE useful for 2 purposes:

1  Check mid-market rates so I have a reference before buying forex or making bank transfers.  

      For cash, I look to get within 1% of the XE-mid-market rate. 

      For bank transfers, I look to get nearer to 0.5% now

 

2  To gain some long term economic perspective.   As a result, I think it's very risky to have assets in one currency  (e.g. GBP) and be planning to have a large percentage of retirement spending in another (e.g. THB).    

If one's  main asset is one of those gold plated final salary pension schemes, then if course whilst it's a good pension, you're stuck with it as a base currency.  

If one has a mix of the inferior defined contribution schemes, ISAs etc, then there is at least the option of investing it in assets in many countries.  Particularly Asian countries, if retiring in Thailand is part of the game plan.  

[ggobkk]

The XE.com app is my go to app for currency conversion.  

[spoon]

No one can predict the currency exchange, if they can, theyll be a billionaire already and wont be here for sure lol. As for what to do, if u dont need the money right away, i usally just keep it, and use whenever i go somewhere that uses usd, and its true for most of my excess foreign currencies. I only exchange them when the rate is higher than what i exchanged them for, for considerable profit. If your incomes is in usd, my advice is invest the money in many different portfolio to reduce risks. Dont put them in one basket. Of course investment strategies differ depending on your age. In short, other than spending a lot of time and effort to learn about investment, you cant do anything about the currency exchange rate nor anyone here can predict.

[Guest]

Does anyone know whether the US dollar is going down further or when will it rebound?

I've quite a lot of US dollar on hand and I'm losing money every month.

What should I do with it?

 

No one knows.   

 

1  If people knew for sure that the dollar was going down, it would have already gone down.

2 The current exchange rate will reflect the balance of opinion for all market participants, many of whom specialize in the field.

 

Have a good think about those 2 concepts.   

 

As for what you do with your dollars, well:

1 What currencies do you spend your money in ?   [Look beyond the point of sale - where are the goods manufactured ? Which countries provide the services ?]

 

2 What currencies are your assets and income in ?

 

3 How well are 1 & 2 matched ?     If there is a close match, well at least you reduce the risk from currency fluctuations.

 

4 How do you invest your money ?   Additional considerations come into play here, since the US stockmarket is already on quite a high valuation, so historical data suggests it is unlikely to be the best performing market in the next 10 years.

 

 

Since we are in a low interest rate environment,  I generally hold onto foreign currency notes when returning home, as the losses on conversion exceed the potential interest payments.

1   Euros -well I go somewhere in Euroland every year, so it's much cheaper to put left over notes in the safe.

2   Dollars.   I will return to Cambodia soon enough, so I keep the leftovers after a trip.

3  Singapore Dollars.    I had a small quantity of these lying around for about 8 years.  When purchased, I got 2.5 SGD per GBP.  Now it's about 1.8, so keeping the notes was much more profitable than saving in a bank.  Also it's very convenient on returning to the country, since I have cash to ride the MRT into town & change more money at a competitive rate.

4  Other popular currencies JPY etc.  Even if not planning to go to Japan for a few years, I just keep the notes & then on the next trip to Thailand, they get converted directly into Thai Baht once in Bangkok. 

 

 

Over the very long term, I am pessimistic about the currencies of all countries with large balance of trade deficits & debts.   Currency traders tend not to act long term.    I may be right & I may be wrong.

[spoon]

There is one fact that doesn't change, converting your money to any currency will incur costs and the less u do it, the better

[reader]

No one knows.   

 

1  If people knew for sure that the dollar was going down, it would have already gone down.

2 The current exchange rate will reflect the balance of opinion for all market participants, many of whom specialize in the field.

 

Have a good think about those 2 concepts.   

 

 

Good point, z909, and very useful info on what to do with those leftover currencies we accumulate in our travels.

 

---------

 

While on the subject of currencies, this article from The Nation today is noteworthy:

 

A nine-member gang that allegedly printed and sold fake US dollar bills in Thailand has been bust in a combined operation by Thai police and US Secret Service officers.

 

The arrest was announced at a press conference yesterday by Provincial Police Bureau 2 commissioner Lt Gen Jitti Rodbangyang, Chon Buri Police commander Pol Maj Gen Decha Songhong and a US Secret Service officer.

 

Jitti said the nine suspects, including a Chinese man, Zhu Ifeng, 35, were arrested in the operation carried out from July 27 to August 1.

 

Jitti said fake US100 bills with a face value of US1.262 million were seized. The authorities also seized three packs of white paper for printing the banknotes and six fake banknote detecting machines. Authorities also seized a skimming machine and nine fake electronic cards.

 

Jitti said authorities found that Zhu and his Thai accomplices also stole data of credit cards to make fake cards to steal from the owners’ accounts.

 

The US Secret Service officer said similar fake notes that seemed to be printed by the same mould have been found and seized in Thailand and neighbouring countries.

 

Fake notes printed by the same moulds have been used at several Thai bank branches during the past four years, he said.

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30322800

[Guest]

Printing of fakes can lead central banks to replace notes with new designs which are harder to copy.

 

Recent examples include the new £1 coin, the new £5 note & a fairly recent new £50 note.  Of course, even after the old ones are no longer legal tender, they are still exchangeable at the Bank of England.  

 

Overall, I would say the risk of getting caught out like this whilst holding foreign currency for a year or two is low.

 

If the US decided to redesign some of their notes, imagine the problems that would arise in places like Cambodia where the dollar is used & they don't have a central bank facility to replace all the old notes. 

[vinapu]

 

Recent examples include the new £1 coin, the new £5 note & a fairly recent new £50 note.  Of course, even after the old ones are no longer legal tender, they are still exchangeable at the Bank of England.  

 

 

If the US decided to redesign some of their notes, imagine the problems that would arise in places like Cambodia where the dollar is used & they don't have a central bank facility to replace all the old notes. 

UK seems to follow Australia, Canada and some other countries by replacing paper notes with much harder to fake plastic ones.

 

USA would do themselves and wide world favor if they moved  energetically to upgrade their notes which with exception of new 100 note are quite low tech for 21 century.

 

Cambodia at least have parallel currency -it's own riels but dollarized countries like El Salvador , Ecuador or Panama are basically at mercy of Federal Reserve.

 

As for currency fluctuation this is more of concern when comes to our savings and investments and advises above are very sound but when comes to vacation and spending I wouldn't too worry as amounts are relatively low and while it pays to shop for  a best rate around area your hotel is I wouldn't spend day looking for a best deal. 

 

Once I lost my cool ,  went from Silom area to Sukhumvit to change 200 USD as I saw tempting rate there. At end of day after I counted cost of BTS tickets back and forth savings materialized were equvalent of 2 cans of Chang at 7/11 not to mention time lost.

[fedssocr]

USD seems to be on the decline for some reason this year. Maybe it's because the world hates Trump?

[GWMinUS]

And I thought my USD would be worth 40 B by the time I visit in November.

Looks like it will be more Offs from Screw Boys and Nature Boys this trip!!!

CHEERS

[reader]

And I thought my USD would be worth 40 B by the time I visit in November.

Looks like it will be more Offs from Screw Boys and Nature Boys this trip!!!

CHEERS

 

Nothing wrong with that. Enjoy!

[vinapu]

And I thought my USD would be worth 40 B by the time I visit in November.

Looks like it will be more Offs from Screw Boys and Nature Boys this trip!!!

CHEERS

don't forget about Super A and Golden Cock, both also budget friendly options

[spoon]

Isnt jupiter 2018 also on the list? 250thb is good price point

[Jasper]

Isnt jupiter 2018 also on the list? 250thb is good price point

Second drink is 100B.

[vinapu]

Isnt jupiter 2018 also on the list? 250thb is good price point

 

Second drink is 100B.

Drinks may be cheaper but what about tip boys expect ?More in line with old Jupiter or rather soi 6 bars?

[GWMinUS]

Sorry, but Super A and Golden Cock are not on my List.

Now the new Jupiter is definitely worth a visit.

Hope they do not increase their prices before mid-November??

If so back to Nature Boys!!!

HAHAHA