Hainan Airlines

[Guest abang1961]

The probability of an airwreck is a discrete random variable and using Poisson Distribution, the chances of striking that jackpot is much lower than a road accident.  In life, we got to take risk and if the time is up, you go.

 

Song dedication: My favourite George Michael's song from 1996, Jesus to a child.  

This song was a melancholy tribute to Michael's Brazilian lover Anselmo Feleppa, whom he met when performing in Rio de Janeiro in 1991. Feleppa died two years later from an AIDS-related brain haemorrhage. Michael had been unable to write for the next 18 months as a consequence of his grief, but then penned the words to "Jesus to a Child" in little more than an hour, indicating that the time was right to move on with his life. The song is written with a rhythm and harmony that is influenced by the Brazilian bossa nova style.

 

[firecat69]

Looking at the broader middle East, with Egypt alone, there have been 2 crashes in recent years.

Whilst the gulf states have a good record, I am not going to count on it staying that way.

Although I agree I would not fly in or out of Egypt because of lax screening and safety standards,  I don't extend that to many other destinations.

 

If I did I could not visit a good part of Europe which is rife with terrorist attacks.

 

There really is a much better chance of being hot crossing the road especially in Thailand, Vietnam etc.  

[vinapu]

 

There really is a much better chance of being hot crossing the road especially in Thailand, Vietnam etc.  

or slipping on the soap in one's shower at home. 

 

This morning I was waken up  to a sound of ambulance arriving at my condo and I learned this is exactly what happend to my

neighbor.

 

Our homes are much more dangerous places for us than aircraft we are flying , statistically proven. 

[steveboy]

 In life, we got to take risk and if the time is up, you go.

 

This sounds too fatalistic.

 

The probability of perishing in reasonable activities with non-zero risk like flying in an airplane, driving cars, crossing streets, and from natural dangers like hurricanes, earthquakes, meteorites, etc.  is still lower than the probability of perishing due to carelessness, ignorance and taking stupid risks. 

[PeterRS]

Looking at the broader middle East, with Egypt alone, there have been 2 crashes in recent years.

Whilst the gulf states have a good record, I am not going to count on it staying that way.

Whyever would you think the gulf state airlines are due for a fatal crash? Simply because the 3 main carriers have a perfect safety record and therefore the law of averages says theyll not keep it that way much longer? By that reckoning Cathay Pacific hasnt had a fatal crash since 1972 when a bomb expolded and killed everyone aboard. Since Qatar and Etihad were founded well after 1972 I suppose youll avoid Cathay too.

[vinapu]

I never used ME3 airlines even if all of them are flying out from my city for simple reason - somehow their schedules are not meeting my requirements / too long connections / or ratio of total flying times to price not reasonable.

 

With good price and connection time I'd not be afraid to fly even Yemenia , Air Zimbabwe or Gambia Air . 

 

My roughest landing ever were with Myanmar Air and Lufthansa , my smoothest with long defunct Wardair  / Canada / , Aeroflot and China Eastern / that one on return from my last trip to LOS / , all three times toughing ground  not noticeable. 

[firecat69]

Your post reminded me. Aeroflot is another airline I would not fly on.  I had enough of them during trips in Russia. I can't think of anything good to say about them.

[vinapu]

Your post reminded me. Aeroflot is another airline I would not fly on. 

I for one , if connection was good and price friendly wouldn't mind flying with them. Did in the past , even on such exotic routes like Casablanca-Havana and never a problem.

 

Not fancy and personnel short on smiles  but this can be said about many other airlines (KLM, El Al and Continental are coming to my mind ). Perhaps fact that I speak language helps to extract even that elusive smile.  

[firecat69]

Planes I flew on were a wreck and the crew basically useless, but it was 25 years ago. Anyways I have no use in supporting anything Putin has a hand in.

[TotallyOz]

Planes I flew on were a wreck and the crew basically useless, but it was 25 years ago. Anyways I have no use in supporting anything Putin has a hand in.

 

So you are now no longer supporting the USA?

[Guest]

Extract from a Daily Telegraph Article

 

The least punctual international airlines of 2016

1. Hainan Airlines (30.3 percent of arrivals on time)
2. Korean Air (31.74 per cent)
3. Air China (32.73 per cent)
4. Hong Kong Airlines (33.42 per cent)
5. China Eastern Airlines (35.8 per cent)
6. Asiana Airlines (37.46 per cent)
7. Philippine Airlines (38.33 per cent)
8. Air India (38.71 per cent)
9. Icelandair (41.05 per cent)
10. El Al (56 per cent)

[firecat69]

Essentially meaningless unless you are aware of the route structure and volume of flights into certain airports.  And at best leaving out El Al not much difference in whether 6 or 7 out of 10  flights taken fail to arrive on time. Certain airports have prevailing weather conditions that frequently delay flights.

 

Flights into airports like JFK and ORD may have speed restrictions or departure restrictions put on them because of volume of traffic.  Some USA airlines have taken to expanding their time enroute listed so that many times they arrive early and passengers are happy but nothing really changed from when they listed true block to block time and may have been late.

 

Some good apps will show you history of actual point to point flights which is useful if you realize you have a tight connection.

[vinapu]

 

Extract from a Daily Telegraph Article

 

The least punctual international airlines of 2016

1.  
2. China Eastern Airlines (35.8 per cent)
3.  

Perhaps , but my last three December trips to LOS were all with them / 4 flights each trip  / and not even once they were late,   , in fact in two occasions  they arrived  earlier than scheduled so I'm glad I was on the right side of equation.

[Guest ryanasia]

Is it a good idea for ANYONE to fly via the middle east ? I don't want to be on a plane used for some terrorist activity. Whilst these 3 airlines have been OK so far, look at what goes on in the region.

 

What a stupid thing to say. 

[PeterRS]

Is it a good idea for ANYONE to fly via the middle east ? I don't want to be on a plane used for some terrorist activity. Whilst these 3 airlines have been OK so far, look at what goes on in the region.

Agreed 100% with ryanasia. A stupid thoughtless comment. There are apps showing flights in real time. Check Iraq and Syria and youll see only domestic carriers anywhere near that land mass. Theres a reason Middle East airlines have great safety records. Did z909 avoid British and Irish carriers during the 20+ years of the murdering terrorist insurgency in nearby Norther Ireland.

 

I suppose z909 also avoids all flights into Paris, Marseilles, Brussels, Nice, Istanbul, Sydney, Columbus Ohio, Hanover, Cologne, Manchester, London, Berlin, Moscow, Manila and lots of other cities, trains in Europe - o and Bangkok and most of the south of Thailand! All have experienced terrorist attacks in recent years. Best stay at home z909.

[Guest abang1961]

Unfortunately blatant generisation previals....

That is to say that all Thai guys are money boys and all money boys have HIV....

 

Come on, we only live once and we must take the risk... 

Getting killed in an air crash is much, much lower than a road accident...

Remember your College statistic on Poisson Distribution?

[firecat69]

I have not let these terrorists change my travel plans at all. I went to Brussels 10 days after it was attacked.  I was in Paris 1 month after the latest attack. After the bombing in Bangkok , I not only arrived a week later but stayed in a Hotel 1 block from the bombing site.

 

Much better chance of getting killed in a car on the freeway going 80MPH.  That said even with my feelings on this subject there are some Airlines i would not fly. Egypt Air is at the top pf the list not only because of their disgraceful safety record but the fact they really have no security at their airports.  I cancelled a trip after one of their many wars , when I was on my way to see the Pyramids.  I have yet to reschedule that trip but hopefully will  in the future but certainly not on one of their planes.

[steveboy]

Unfortunately blatant generisation previals....

....

Come on, we only live once and we must take the risk... 

 

What is "generisation"?

 

"We only live once" is a pseudo-adage that is useful to justify going against reason.

We should not take avoidable risks lightly PRECISELY because we live only once !

I visited Thailand two years ago when all this uprising and demonstrations against the government took place. But I did so because I had made already all the reservations.  Fortunately everything went fine...

[worldatlarge]

For pricing and flight schedules kayak.com is also good.

 

OAG (provider of aviation schedules, flight status and analytics) just published their 2016 On-time performance (OTP) results
for airlines and airports. Here are the results;

 

 

Top 20 mainline airlines by OTP 

 

I will repost. Excel not coming well here

[worldatlarge]

Sorry about that. Excel file does not paste very well!! So here in picture!

 

For pricing and flight schedules kayak.com is also good.

 

OAG (provider of aviation schedules, flight status and analytics) just published their 2016 On-time performance (OTP) results for airlines and airports. Here are the results;

 

[spoon]

Surprise airasia made the list since its been known here as the worst airline to be on time. Wonder what is the criteria? Like how long a delay would count as not on time.

[vinapu]

I'm surprised Guarulhos beat Changi but numbers don't lie 

[PeterRS]

Ah but numbers often lie! It all depends on how those numbers are arrived at and the underlying facts behind the numbers. Weather inevitably plays a role. Honolulu has great weather. Its home airline has a small route structure. Just compare the route structure with the far larger SIA or Lufthansa! So the chances of overall on time arrivals are obviously higher than an airport like Hong Kong which has to reduce movements and sometimes close during the annual typhoon season.

 

OTP is usually more dependent on the airlines than the airport. The dreaded phrase delayed due to late arrival of the incoming aircraft is heard at all airports and a delayed incoming flight almost inevitably means a delayed outbound flight. Then again the more airport movements at any airport the greater the chance of delays. Then airports with more long haul international flights tend to be less good in airline OTP than those with just domestic flights. Haneda is probably top of the list because it is largely a domestic airport that was opened up to some international flights only a few years ago. Vastly more international flights operate out of Narita. so its not a surprise that Narita isnt on the list.

[firecat69]

As with most things that involve statistics there are many more things that go into the numbers then most people realize.

 

1. First thing you have to know is whether arrival time is calculated from touchdown or arrival at gate .  At Narita it is quite easy to have a 30 minute taxi from touch down to the gate if you landed on the wrong runway. Seattle has bad weather but rarely does it take more then 5 minutes to taxi to the gate. 

 

2. Late arrival of a flight may result in a late departure but since block times for International flights are quite lengthy, many times a late arrival does not result in a late departure.  It is true in the USA with an airline like SW which builds in short ground times a late arrival almost always results in a late departure.

 

3. There are times when flight arrived on time but the crew for the next flight is late arriving and thus you sit at the gate.

 

4. There are times during weather when flights have no gate and thus they may have landed on time but sit for 30 minutes or more waiting for a gate.

 

The interesting thing in most of the above statistics is that if you take a 100 flights , the difference between top and bottom is maybe 7 more flights out of a hundred  being late.

 

Bottom Line it is personal. You could care less if an airline has the best OTP if you miss your connection because they arrived late.

 

There are things you can do to maximize your chances of being on time. Never fly through Chicago in the winter . Avoid NYC airports if possible.  

 

But in the end , it is a crap shoot and there are so many things that go into you making your connection and arriving on time, you just have to take your chances!

[PeterRS]

In my experience weather is often a major contributing factor. Once flying from SFO to Miami on an early morning flight the AA plane landed a few minutes early. Although there were heavy black clouds moving in we expected to get to the gate on time. Then on the taxiway the rain thunder and lighting started. Since ground handlers must stop work during electric storms we sat there for all of 110 minutes before moving to the gate. MIA was like a disaster zone. I missed my connecting flight and could only get one the next morning.

 

firecat69 is spot on. its a crapshoot. But do your research beforehand and you maximise the chances on an on time arrival.