United Kingdom as we know it is over

[vinapu]

Polls at this point are meaningless. Dump will not get more then 190 electoral votes and he will swept back to his golf courses. You cannot win an electoral election in the USA with White men only.

I wish you are correct but few months ago his candidacy seemed like a joke or at the best , publicity stunt  and where it is now?

[KhorTose]

Polls at this point are meaningless. Dump will not get more then 190 electoral votes and he will swept back to his golf courses. You cannot win an electoral election in the USA with White men only.

Unfortunately you can win, when only White men vote.  White men =  12% of the population =  40,000,000  votes.  So you might say his election turns on voter turnout.  Everyone of these Trump supporters will vote in November.  How many Hillary voters will vote?  All to often minorities and liberals do not turn out to vote, and even I don't feel any BURNie--at all--when it comes to Hillary. 

So, it might be a very good idea that liberals do not become complacent and say he can't win, because he can, and very well may.

 

Michael Moore thinks Trump can win.  http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

[Guest shamahan]

Most of the critics here concentrate on pound depreciation but in the current deflationary environment it may not be a bad thing, at least for the moment. E.g. UK stock market doing much better in comparison with, say, German one. I ,for once, made a killing. I had only one UK stock Arm holding. It was announced that it is going to be bought by Japanese Softbank with premium of 40 percent (depreciation of pound definitely was a factor).Guess what, I immediately sold the stock and pocketed the money. Make no mistake, though, in the long run the decision will prove to be a total disaster. And yes the people who voted no are just mostly total idiots and have no idea. Example? Wales, which  voted to leave but get net positive subsidies from European Union. Here in Pattaya, they showed a charming Irish movie Sing Street which (among other things) shows a desperation of Ireland in eighties and a strong contrast with dreamland called England.  In the not so distant future it will be the other way around:desperate englishmen trying to reach Ireland. So is a price of stupidity.

As for Trump, he absolutely can win, if  he can get 15 percent of black votes. The faschist demagogue he is, he definitely can do it.

He has a very nice kids but so did Gebbels. I am republican and always voted this way but this time I will vote for Hillary (not that I like her but better than faschist in White house). But make no mistake: the rise of Trump is to significant extent  the result of 8 years of Obama in oval office.

[forky123]

The nightmare of Trump winning is that, in all likelihood, there would be Republican majorities in both houses. I can't imagine the issues that will be caused for all minorities should Trump win.

[vinapu]

But make no mistake: the rise of Trump is to significant extent  the result of 8 years of Obama in oval office.

and so is Brexit and drought in ISSAN ?

 

Wave of populism is sweeping Western world because too many people are feeling they are left out and it's why you have Trump wave on one side and Sanders on another, both out of mainstream and both unthinkable few years ago 

[firecat69]

 Sorry but I disagree that Obama is responsible for the rise of Trump.  He is competing against a seriously flawed candidate  in Clinton and still he most likely will lose.

 

Had the Democrats put up  an experienced candidate without the baggage of 25 years this election would have been over before it started.

 

He would get one of the lowest totals of Electoral Votes ever.. Everyone forgets except for the crooked Supreme Court decision it would have been 25 years of Democratic presidents.

 

Republicans are at a big disadvantage when it starts because there are not enough White Men to win in the states that count.

 

Romney won 37% of the Latino Vote and still got beat and their numbers have increased and Loud Mouth Trump will be lucky to get 20%.

[forky123]

Trump's advantage is that people all over the world are very fed up with traditional politicians. Brexit would have been avoided if politicians had simply kept their mouths shut and stopped their insane battle of ridiculous things that were going to happen after Brexit. So many lies were told on both sides that finding coherent arguments was mostly impossible. Clinton has the same problem. She is a traditional politician and given the political map she should win easily. Trump has to win nearly all the swing battleground states to win and that shouldn't happen. The problem is though that Trump isn't fighting a traditional campaign and statements that would make a traditional politician unelectable simply make Trump seem plain spoken to an increasing number of Americans. I hope the "spoiler" candidates get out of the way though else it could give Trump an easier job.

[Guest]

I blame credit card culture. People don't seem to understand that much as we'd like to afford everything now, constantly running with a £1.5 trillion national debt and a £150 billion deficit wasn't sustainable. .

A very good point. It's almost like there's some kind of political & media conspiracy to sweep the deficits under the carpet.

 

I hear more of this "end austerity" nonsense than reports about the deficits.   The truth is we have no austerity, as the Chancellor borrows an unsustainable sum every year. 

Of course, Gordon Brown started it by borrowing an irresponsible 3% of GDP during the boom years, rising to about 11% when it all went wrong. 

Unfortunately, it seems the Conservatives are unwilling to take the blame for the efficiencies required to fix that problem.

 

As for us Brits on the board, well keep investing a proportion of your savings & pensions in Asia, then at least falls in the pound should not affect your ability to go on holidays. 

[KhorTose]

One academic has done studies on why people voted for Brexit.  I think this is an outstanding article that proves that academics really do live in their own world,  and they do get it wrong because of that.  I cannot remember reading anything as stupid as this nonobjective study and proposal. What he is really proposing is called meritocracy.

 

Ethicist Jason Brennan: Brexit, Democracy, and Epistocracy

http://blog.press.princeton.edu/2016/06/24/ethicist-jason-brennan-brexit-democracy-and-epistocracy/

[Guest shamahan]

Pound dropped overnight to 31 year low (and then recovered somewhat) but still around 1.23 per Dollar. This is just the beginning. There will be enormous  pain for UK ,depression ,unemployment and inflation.. It will be slow motion torture as the brexit develops, financial sector leaves London, real estate crashes and trade tariffs emerge. UK go to hell due to self inflicted wound brought about by fucking, stupid, shitty ,worthless zombies who voted for Brexit. I just hope we avoid similarly cataclysmic event in US by voting in piece of shit Trump as the next President.

[traveller123]

 UK go to hell due to self inflicted wound brought about by fucking, stupid, shitty ,worthless zombies who voted for Brexit. I just hope we avoid similarly cataclysmic event in US by voting in piece of shit Trump as the next President.

Rather strong words as 16 million voted to stay.

 

My personal view is that most people wanted major changes to the way the EU operates, more control over immigration, less interference from organisations like the European Court, cut down on the gravy train abused by non elected officials and elected but powerless Euro MPs etc etc.

I believe they wanted to give a major wake up call to the European Commission but did not expect the final result to be leave.

[vinapu]

Rather strong words as 16 million voted to stay.

 

My personal view is that most people wanted major changes to the way the EU operates, more control over immigration, less interference from organisations like the European Court, cut down on the gravy train abused by non elected officials and elected but powerless Euro MPs etc etc.

I believe they wanted to give a major wake up call to the European Commission but did not expect the final result to be leave.

not  a first time people  are voting for  a change  and when  it comes,  package is not what they dreamed about

[Guest shamahan]

Today first time for a long time some (credible) polls show that Trump is ahead of Clinton. The immediate market reaction:

Dollar falls versus gold and swiss franc. It gives you the idea what is going to happen if Trump wins. My immediate reaction was to increase my swiss franc position but ,of course, it is impossible to mitigate such a huge disaster as possible Trump presidency.

But obviously for expats with Dollar denominated income the signal should be clear. Just vote, if you still can . Like zombies in UK,American zombies have no clue and go right in the deep shit. Just one simple example. Iowa voted twice for Obama. Now, all indications are they will vote for Trump. Meanwhile, Iowa is one of the few states whose well being depends heavily on agricultural export. Imagine what Trump protectionism means for farmers of Iowa. But, as I said, zombies have no clue...

[Guest shamahan]

As of today, Dollar continue to fall (now including against Thai baht), polls continue to tighten. I have been always against Obamacare and I think that it is an expensive, inaffordable (for government) program which hurts middle class. Now we see in real time what a disaster it is. The question is what big mouthed fucking orangutang (abbreviation: BMFO) 'proposes" instead..

1. Medical savings accounts

2. Cross border competition of insurance companies

3. Immediate stop of block grants (which supports the extension of medicaid for states)

The result: more than 20 million people who got free medical care through the extension of medicaid will lose it and get no substitution. 

Do zombies understand that? Obamacare obviously damaging for middle class self-employed who need to pay huge premiums but BMFO does not offer anything for them either. (Medical savings accounts are hardly a substitute for a full-fledged health insurance).

I am unaware of anything BMFO "proposes" which makes any sense. Pure demagoguery.

Makes me wonder about fascist monkeys who are shouting Trump, Trump, Trump...

[steveboy]

Had the Democrats put up  an experienced candidate without the baggage of 25 years this election would have been over before it started.

 

They did initially with Bernie Sanders.

[forky123]

Hillary Clinton - E-mail issues that no one understands and a huge and costly investigation resulted in no charges being brought.

 

Donald Trump -

Racist - Check

Sexist - Check

Anti LGBT - Check

Self admitted sex offender - Check

At least 12 women accusing him of sexual assault - Check

In court for alleged rape of 13 year old girl - Check

Hasn't paid tax in 20 years - Check

Draft dodger - Check

Lost $1 billion dollars in one year - Check

Ripped people off with Trump University - Check

 

That anyone would even think of electing Trump is amazing to me. That enough Americans will likely vote for him to make him president is simply astounding.

[firecat69]

Now it turns out the youth of Great Britain may get a reprieve of their non-vote,  Brexit may never happen!

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/world/europe/uk-brexit-vote-parliament.html?_r=0

[firecat69]

This Dollar continues to fall is ridiculous. You are talking about a 1% correction over the last months at most. The Dollar continues to be near historical highs of the last 5 years against Euro, Pound . Thai baht has moved a whole 1/2 a baht the last few months. Not even worth talking about

[forky123]

Now it turns out the youth of Great Britain may get a reprieve of their non-vote,  Brexit may never happen!

British MP's would have to show a resolve they simply don't have for that to be true.

[Guest scottishguy]

What today's High Court judgement confirms yet again is that the UK Govt had no contingency plans whatsoever in place for Brexit and it further exposes that over 4 months later, the UK Govt still hasn't.

 

You would think wouldn't you that with money being no object, the top lawyers in the land would have been consulted on the constitutional legalities of Brexit prior to allowing Cruella De Vil to announce how she intended to proceed - i.e. buy time for 8 months and then use the Royal pregogative to invoke Article 50 to formally signal an exit from the EU.

 

The woman is simply and clearly out of her depth. Nothing she oversaw as Home Secretary went according to plan. She might make a passable Junior School Secretary but thats about as far as her talent goes.

 

Moving on - I haven't been here for a while and having read through this thread I noticed Khor Tose wondered what I thought Scotland and N Ireland might do since both voted to Remain:

 

• In my view Northern Ireland will do nothing other than toe the UK line and supinely accept the NI electorate being over-ruled by the English (not that they see it that way of course). The Unionists are in power, the clue is in the name, and it's as simple as that. Feel free to disagree NIrish 

 

• Scotland will present a raft of proposals to the UK Govt which would endeavour to keep Scotland in some way within the Single Market if not the EU itself. It can do nothing else - scoyland voyed 62-38 to remain. The proposals will of course be rejected out of hand by tthe UK Govt.
• The Scottish Parliament will pass a Referendum Bill with the support of the SNP + the Greens, and the UK Govt will block it. 

 

Now, the possible fly in the ointment for the Scot Govt is that the Local Councils administer elections and they are mostly Unionist controlled as the last Council elections were 5 yrs ago. As things stand they would attempt to scupper IndyRef2 by refusing to co-operate. However, elections are due in May 2017 and the SNP needs to sweep the board for the next part of my scenario:

 

• With the SNP having now gained control of the local Councils, the Scottish Govt will resign and since no other SG can be formed (the numbers dont add up for the other parties) an election will be held and the SNP and Greens will seek a mandate for IndyRef.
•  
• The SNP and Greens will win that election and have their mandate.
•  
• Indyref2 will be called with or without UK Govt approval and YES will win http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=451400
•  
• The SG will then approach the EU and seek to be designated as the "continuing state" when the Rump UK leaves - in the same way as we were told in 2014 that Scotland would be out of the EU and the Rump UK would be the continuing state.
•  
• Spain etc can stamp their feet all they like - in that scenario they would have no veto as there would be no "admission" to the EU, merely "continuation". The decision would be taken by qualified majority vote and would pass as Scotland has considerable support within the EU
•  
• As the continuing state, Scotland inherits all the UK opt-outs and pro-rata rebate.

Am i confident of all that?

 

Not in the least - I think it's at least possible, but recent events have surely proven that very little is predictable!

 

[Guest scottishguy]

PS - as you can see - bullet points don't work!!

[KhorTose]

Thanks Scottishguy.  Great analysis of what can be....... from a very nationalistic viewpoint(?).  I do believe you are overpresuming but do thank you for your reply.  While I am really grateful for your reply,  recent events beg another question.  If the UK stays in The EU, won't this practically end the Scottish Independence movement as it will actually draw Britian and Scottland closer together.

[Alexx]

Scottish, great way to describe that dreadful woman Theresa May. It was a great pleasure to see what the High Court did to her cornflakes.

[forky123]

If the UK stays in The EU, won't this practically end the Scottish Independence movement as it will actually draw Britian and Scottland closer together.

I really hope not. The referendum vote should have been for a generation and not a couple of years till the balance shifted slightly. At this point I just really hope the Scots fuck off their own way if that's what they want and do it soon. Having a referendum every couple of years until 50.1% of scots agree with independence is simple bullshit. The only good thing about the independence movement is that they've, quite successfully, ensured a continued Conservative government in Westminster as, without the Scottish block of seats in Parliament, it's very hard for labour now to win an election.

[Guest scottishguy]

Khor Tose - I don't know which "recent events" you were thinking of - but I don't see any way England/Wales/NIreland is staying in the EU, so I suggest your point about how that might affect Scottish Independence is moot.

 

Unless of course, there were to be another EU Referendum which reversed the result.

 

However rabid right-wing Tory Little Englanders like Forky123 have the viewpoint that you can't re-run a referendum (he already told us so) until some undefined point in the future - even though he neglects to mention (or more likely just doesn't know) that the SNP was re-elected 6 months ago on a manifesto commitment to IndyRef2 should there be a "material change in circumstances" Few would argue that being ripped out of the EU against our expressed will (just a month later) does not represent a material change.

 

So it seems a Scottish mandate counts for nothing whereas an English mandate counts for everything. Can't say I'm surprised at that line though because in 2014 we were assured by the UK Govt (not to mention David Bowie and Eddie Izzard) that the Scots were "equal partners" in the Union - now we are back to having not so much 50% or even 25% of that "partnership", as just 8.6% of the shares.

 

Funny how things turn out (but utterly predictable to anyone except a moron or a pensioner who is scaremongered into believing that the UK pension they have paid into all their working life will be withdrawn and they'll need a passport to cross the border)

 

I observe that Forky has little grasp of political reality - the utterly moronic statement that Labour needs Scottish seats to form a Govt is historically and comprehensively untrue. Of all the UK Govts which Labour has formed, I'm almost certain I'm correct in saying that only twice did Scottish seats push Labour to a majority. But I didn't expect Forky to know that - he just wants to froth at the mouth like the lowest kind of Daily Mail reader.

 

Moving on from that individual, the good news is that the first two parts of my prediction (see above) have now come to pass- which was : 

 

• In my view Northern Ireland will do nothing other than toe the UK line and supinely accept the NI electorate being over-ruled by the English...  TICK!

 

• Scotland will present a raft of proposals to the UK Govt which would endeavour to keep Scotland in some way within the Single Market if not the EU itself.....The proposals will of course be rejected out of hand by the UK Govt...TICK!

Even better, the UK Chancellor has actually rejected the SNP proposals BEFORE they've been formally presented   

 

Interesting times indeed