United Kingdom as we know it is over

[Alexx]

It did take you quite a long time to write that reply, scottishguy, but I'm glad you finally got if off your chest.

[forky123]

It took him that long to look up all the words. I'm not English, don't read the Daily Mail and I'm really not sure what you mean about an English mandate when the English are the only people who don't get a vote on UK independence let alone repeated votes as the Wind changes.

[Guest scottishguy]

I already knew that Forky had little grasp of current affairs but this statement from him is just beyond laughing at:

 

..... the English are the only people who don't get a vote on UK independence.....

 

Eh? Were "the English" prevented from going to the polls on 23/06/16 - I think not. In fact it was" the English" anti-immigrant, racist xenophobic campaign led by the likes of the odious Nigel Farage which delivered the result. Those people who cry "It wasn't all about anti-immigration" are pathetically trying to cover their nudity with an extremely small fig leaf and it just isn't doing the job.

 

All LEAVE voters may not have been racists but you can be damn sure all racists were LEAVE voters.

 

As for the reference to "repeated votes as the wind changes" - in 2014 the Scottish people were sold a lie (an even more blatant one than "the English" were sold over Brexit).

 

One of the principle lies from the UK Govt was "Vote NO to Scottish independence in order to stay in the EU" - and yes, Scots did vote by a majority of 10% to stay in a United Kingdom within the European Union.

 

That United Kingdom no longer - exists, because despite Scots voting my a majority of 25% to remain in the EU and despite being told in 2014 that we were an "equal partner" in this Union, our votes have simply been trumped, by "the English"

 

In these circumstances and particularly when the SNP won an election on the specific committment to Indyref2 should we be torn out of the EU against our democratically expressed will - what else do people expect to happen?

 

Finally, there's no mystery as to why I take a while to reply - I simply don't read this forum very often.

[forky123]

The English don't get a vote on whether to continue subsidising the rest of the UK, or go it alone, so don't twist the argument to try to make out you aren't talking complete bollocks. As for the Scots being an equal partner, a vote in Scotland counts exactly the same as a vote in the rest of the UK. Are you really stupid enough to believe that Scotland, with 10% of the population of England, should have an equal say? I guess you are. Anyhow please have your next vote and f*ck off, preferably while I'm still around to watch the consequences. As for politicians lying, you really must be incredibly gullible if you fall for their crap.

[Guest scottishguy]

Isn't the power to  "get a vote on whether to continue subsidising the rest of the UK, or go it alone" entirely in the hands of the English electorate? 

 

Who's stopping you having this vote? Not us.

 

Bring it on.

[forky123]

No, it isn't in the hands of the English electorate. All major political parties support the Union and any vote in parliament would include Scots, Welsh and N Irish MPs.

[KhorTose]

I asked this question, as at the time, it looked like the English were having second thoughts.  I now agree that Scotland will probably leave, and after America's disaster with the right wing, I think they should,  Sorry Forky, but here I believe that Scottishguy is correct, and I think this will be a great loss to England, while of course, you do not.  I do understand where you are coming from, and at first I quite agreed two or three months ago.  Not now.  Time for a good shot of 16 year old Singleton and a "BERNIE"  toast to the independent nation of Scotland.
 

Here’s a bottle and an honest man –
What would ye wish for mair, man.
Wha kens, before his life may end,
What his share may be o’ care, man.

So catch the moments as they fly,
And use them as ye ought, man.
Believe me, happiness is shy,
And comes not aye when sought, man.

[steveboy]

All LEAVE voters may not have been racists but you can be damn sure all racists were LEAVE voters.

 

Your phrase made me think how well it applies to the US elections:

 

"All TRUMP voters may not have been racists but you can be damn sure all racists were TRUMP voters."

[vinapu]

 

 

Finally, there's no mystery as to why I take a while to reply - I simply don't read this forum very often.

then do read us more often

[Alexx]

And, even more importantly, WRITE more often. Who else will give us that unique Scottish perspective?

[forky123]

Sorry Forky, but here I believe that Scottishguy is correct, and I think this will be a great loss to England, while of course, you do not.

Actually, I hate the thought of the break up of the Union. What I hate more is the thought of rerunning the vote every two years all the while trying to see if 50.1% of Scots yet support leaving the Union. I also hate how "the English" as a whole are apparently to blame for everything that happens even when less than 30% of them actually voted to leave the EU. There are loads of problems with both the UK leaving the EU and with Scotland leaving the Union. The UK is already massively in debt and the deficit is ridiculous. The cost of all this change simply cannot be afforded at the moment and the cost of repeating referendums is simply adding insult to injury. That people both in the U.K as a whole and in Scotland think things will be better after all this is a very sad reflection on our education system.

 

Despite all of the above though, each nation should have a right to leave the Union including England. It should however be a generational vote and the threshold should not be 50.1% of voters.

[PeterRS]

I now agree that Scotland will probably leave, and after America's disaster with the right wing, I think they should,

From what I read at a distance, the Scottish First Minister is moving closer to having another leave the UK referendum. It would not surprise me if this time it passes with a considerable majority, even thgouh the economic arguments this time around seem far less favourable. If memory serves at the time of the last referendum oil was priced at over $100. Even then new fields would have had to be opened up to balance the books. Now oil is half that price. How do the books now balance?

 

Historically though the Scots have always looked outwards. Their persecution by the English resulted in the need for a vast number of Scots to seek their fortunes and livelihoods around the world. I guess that must be ingrained in their DNA

[NIrishGuy]

In my view Northern Ireland will do nothing other than toe the UK line and supinely accept the NI electorate being over-ruled by the English (not that they see it that way of course). The Unionists are in power, the clue is in the name, and it's as simple as that. Feel free to disagree NIrish 

 

 

Sorry for the delay, I've just read this thread and nope, you'll get no disagreement from me re your above SG - you're bang on the money there ( as I see you've already noted in a later thread too) - and actually as I see your post was way back in November now that the Assembly has crashed here ( yet again) there's a very real chance of direct rule once again being implemnented here if the local parties can't get their gravy triain back on the tracks. I don't "think" it'll come to that this time round (yet) but it could and if it does then your "being ruled over once more by the English" is even more spot on. 

 

Likewise though (and again as you said SG) some here wouldn't see that in such as bad light as perhaps you / a Nationalist would and we might just consider that a further extension of our own UK Government administering it's own area ( as we can't seem to manage that ourselves as our politicans are arseholes !).

 

But even as a Unionist even I do concede now that in these days of devolution it is a bit "rich" for some English Minister to be parachuted in to Stormont Castle to preside over us, but that's still better ( in my case as a Unionist) than some of the ( unconstiutional) alternatives being suggested here by some ( Nationalists) here such as joint Sovereignty with the Irish Republic etc - but THAT as they say is a WHOLE other topic for another whole other thread - that one I'll probably not add too much as genereally speaking I'm just SO done with the politics of this whole fucked up place in general and prefer just to fuck myself stupid here in particualar whilst our politicians here just spend their time just fucking us all around in general it seems.  

[Guest scottishguy]

Well I haven't contributed to this discussion for a while, so to bring it up to date I can confirm that everything I predicted up to this point back in November http://www.gaythailand.com/forums/topic/10413-united-kingdom-as-we-know-it-is-over/page-4?do=findComment&comment=99360  has come to pass and we seem to be inevitably moving on to a position where the Scottish Govt Indyref2 Bill which has been worked on in the background by civil servants for some months now will be introduced and passed (it cannot fail as there is a pro independence majority with in the Scottish Parliament) probably in Spring/Summer 2017.

 

I expect that Bill to be announced in mid March (assuming the UK Govt has formally rejected the Scottish Govt compromise Brexit proposals by then) and introduced and passed in the latter half of this year.

 

The UK Govt is already whispering to the Press that they will seek to block Indyref2 and the issue will blow up over the coming days and weeks. The real fun will begin once the Indyref2 Bill is passed by the Scottish Parliament and the UK attempts to assert what it believes is its authority by denying the revelant UK Parliamentary order.

 

It's necessary to be aware at this point that Indyref2 (specifically stated as being in the event of Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will) was in the SNP manifesto approved in the Scottish general election of May 2016 (which the SNP obviously won) and that the UK would also be ignoring the expressed will of the Scottish Parliament (which we were told/lied to was the most powerful devolved Parliament in the world).

 

So, interesting times ahead.

[Alexx]

As an outsider, I'd say there's nothing more effective that Westminster could do to ensure Scottish independence than attempting to block another referendum. That would be a foolish move, and seeing how foolish they are, it might very well just happen...

[Guest scottishguy]

I agree Alexx and disappointingly (from my side of the argument) there would be a certain level of support for that even within Scotland.

 

The Tory leader in Scotland (lesbian, kickboxer, and photo-op tank straddler Ms Ruth Davisdon) has been busy shamefully nailing her colours to the sectarian mast to hoover up the knuckledragging "No Surrender, Rangers Forever, God Bless the Queen and Fuck The Pope" Orange Order supporters to add to the traditional Tory ragbag of blue-rinse matrons, business interests, and British state self-interest sychophants & toadies.

 

That motley crew have reached the heady heights of around 25% support within Scotland and whilst I believe 30% would prove to be the absolute limit of support for these people (there are not that many bigots left to target and the senile are dying off) she will of course pose as "speaking for Scotland" and reverse her previously stated position that Westminster should not block Indyref2. She has already shamelessly reversed her position on Brexit TWICE (on remaining within the EU generally and on remaining within the Single Market specifically) so barefaced lying comes easily to her and her odious supporters.

 

However the good news is that the Unionists are only moving from one Unionist Party to another - there is no evidence whatsoever that support for Unionism is increasing. You would not know it from listening to the likes of the BBC but in 16 of 17 polls since Indyref1 the YES vote has either increased or stood still whilst the NO vote has stood still or declined. The latest poll just last week (suppressed by the BBC) has YES at 49% which is 5 points up since Indyref1.

 

Base support at 49% is not where I'd like us to be - but in Indyref1 YES support grew from mid 20% to mid 40% in the course of the campaign whereas NO fell from mid 70% to mid 50% so the direction of travel during the 2012/14 campaign gives cause for optimism

[KhorTose]

SCINI  Sounds like the perfect solution to the (?)forthcoming(?) break-up.

 

The Irish Times:    http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-three-state-union-may-be-answer-to-brexit-1.2734041

[Guest]

Their persecution by the English resulted in the need for a vast number of Scots to seek their fortunes and livelihoods around the world. I guess that must be ingrained in their DNA

Persecution ?    The Union of England & Scotland came when Scotland had run out of money & they voted for a Union.

 

In recent decades, government spending on Scotland has exceeded that in England.   I have no idea why.

[For the avoidance of doubt, I am not English]

[Guest scottishguy]

Au contraire - at the point of union Scotland was debt free and had to be compensated to the tune of around £400,000 (at 1707 values) in exchange for agreeing to service part of the English national debt.

 

As for your comment on spending per capita being higher in Scotland, well so is the tax take.

 

Scotland has 1/3 of the UK land mass but only 1/8th the UK population - the cost of delivering services is therefore considerably higher.

 

So there are just two reasons why spending is and ought to be higher.

 

Handy Hint #1: Get facts right before pontificating on subjects you clearly know nothing about.

Handy Hint #2: Read the McCrone Report (if you're actually interested in the truth)

[Guest]

My facts are right.

[Gwydion62]

A united Ireland has been inevitable ever since New Labour persuaded the Unionists to accept the Good Friday agreement.

Only a matter of time.

 

It will probably happen before Scotland becomes independent. Sturgeon has misjudged big time.

The vote against independence will be larger than last time.

[forrestreid]

A united Ireland has been inevitable ever since New Labour persuaded the Unionists to accept the Good Friday agreement.

Only a matter of time.

 

It will probably happen before Scotland becomes independent. Sturgeon has misjudged big time.

The vote against independence will be larger than last time.

 

You could make a good argument that united Ireland would have been a lot MORE likely to have occurred by now if the Good Friday agreement had been rejected by Ulster Unionists, rather than accepted by them (on the basis that there would have been no temporary cessation in the constitutional crisis there, which would have pushed out the Westminster government quicker).

 

Either way, I very much doubt that a united Ireland will happen before "Scoxit".

 

I am curious as to what makes you think that the vote against independence will be larger than last time?

 

I know financially, things are a bit worse with the dip of oil prices, etc, but I think psychologically the Brexit debacle will help the independence cause. Last time, the EU issue was a plus for the Union - with concerns of Scotland having to apply again for membership of the EU, and the argument that the only way to stay in the EU was via the Union etc.

 

Now that whole argument is neutralised – in fact people will be heading into the unknown either way, which will cut down on the anxiety generated by the whole "leap in the dark " factor.

[Gwydion62]

You could make a good argument that united Ireland would have been a lot MORE likely to have occurred by now if the Good Friday agreement had been rejected by Ulster Unionists, rather than accepted by them (on the basis that there would have been no temporary cessation in the constitutional crisis there, which would have pushed out the Westminster government quicker).

 

Either way, I very much doubt that a united Ireland will happen before "Scoxit".

 

I am curious as to what makes you think that the vote against independence will be larger than last time?

 

I know financially, things are a bit worse with the dip of oil prices, etc, but I think psychologically the Brexit debacle will help the independence cause. Last time, the EU issue was a plus for the Union - with concerns of Scotland having to apply again for membership of the EU, and the argument that the only way to stay in the EU was via the Union etc.

 

Now that whole argument is neutralised – in fact people will be heading into the unknown either way, which will cut down on the anxiety generated by the whole "leap in the dark " factor.

Economics will decide.

 

Oil revenues in the gutter.

No chance of keeping £.

Joining a failing currency, the Euro.

Huge budget deficit.

Quite simply, an Independent Scotland will not be economically viable.

The Scottish people will realise that and vote at least 60% against.

[Guest]

The Scottish people will realise that and vote at least 60% against.

 

Possibly, however I don't understand why only Scotland gets a vote.    Both parties should be entitled to request a divorce.

[traveller123]

Possibly, however I don't understand why only Scotland gets a vote.    Both parties should be entitled to request a divorce.

 

Now that would be interesting