macaroni21

Last December when the cluster broke out in Samut Sakhon, I saw a news report that said the government was extending tests to all potentially exposed persons regardless of immigration status. In that fishery port, many workers were Burmese. While I cannot fully remember the details now, the outline of the news story was that people needed only present a phone number to identify themselves (and to obtain test results) and that no questions would be asked about nationality or visa status. Whether the people at risk were trustful of such government statements would have been a totally different matter, of course. Furthermore, it is one thing for top officials to announce politices, it is quite another for the lower ranks to carry them out in the way that is intended. All it takes is for a few overzealous swabbers and testers to demand to see papers for news to spread in the community that the government's assurances are not to be trusted. In other words, it is not hard to design policy to include overstayers, etc in testing and vaccinnation programmes; it can be very hard to realise the plan.

So.... is the "129,000 international arrivals" to be believed at all? We know the forward projections are mostly wishul thinking. Might past "data" also be wishful thinking? Reminds me of one toyboy who, in the space of two days, told me (a) he had been to university, (b) he had not gone beyond high school, and (c) he was from Lao and "there are no schools in Lao", though I'll grant that maybe (c) is not mutually exclusive from (a) or (b).

I wondered where the "129,000 international tourists" were from. That's about 1,400 a day. This led me to wonder which cities still have "direct" flights to Phuket. I found https://www.flightconnections.com/flights-to-phuket-hkt and from there, this map dated 14 May 2021. Chinese cities stand out, but the three most worrying routes are the three from In dia. That saiid, Thailand banned arrivals from India late April, so why are there still flights?

What Thailand does (even if optimistically) is only half the matter. My country requires all returning citizens to quarantine for two weeks at a designated facility. That puts a huge dampener on it.

In recent memory, I've only been to Nakarat once and it was a disaster. As I recall, they were mostly Vietnamese boys, very straight-lookng, who knew virtually nothing about massage or giving pleasure. I reckon they must have returned to Vietnam after Covid shut massage establishments down for a while. Are the staff now all Thai, I wonder? Gee, I can't wait to get back to find out! But it still looks like a long, long wait.

Seeing the first few scenes of this video, I thought it was made pre-Covid. The clubs were packed and no one had face masks. Then at the 24th second someone (a waiter?) in a mask walks by. Then we see the doormen of Jupiter who had a mask too. Finally, at 3 min 37 secs we see a date on the wall - 11 April 2021 - indicating that it's a very recent video. At 8:00, there is a huge sign in the background saying "Face masks required", but no one in the foreground has one. The bars on Soi 4 and on Soi Patpong 2 are clearly still in business, so that's a relief. Something to hope for when travel becomes possible (by the end of the year?). Lucky Boys may be the exception though; it looks closed. However, seeing the heaving crowds in the dance clubs, all maskless, the Covid situation may get much worse before it gets better.

I'm not suggesting that Thailand should have a blanket ban on all arrivals. When we consider that most people will only have mild symptoms even if infected, we must be careful not to make the cure (the meltdown of the economy) worse than the disease. It may be sensible to have differentiated entry controls by country depending on risk, but if so, then one should be data-driven when assessing that risk. To say that just because WHO labels China as high-risk, even as WHO declares the whole world as high-risk, is enough to single out China for a ban, seems way too simplistic. It doesn't make sense to ban all Chinese visitors when that country had 35 confirmed and suspected new cases in the latest report, while visitors from France (with 780 new cases in the last 24 hours) and from Spain (with 1,266 new cases), have looser entry requirements. As an incidence rate (i.e. compared to population), France and Spain are way more risky than China right now. Yet, as far as I can discern (not always easy because of changing and conflicting information), visitors from France and Spain are subject only to registering on an app and self-monitoring as they wander around Thailand. From https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-thailand-coronavirus-releases-detailed-measures-12538698 Don't be too quick to defend the Thai government. Anutin may be the biggest of the buffoons, but that doesn't mean the rest should be beyond criticism either. In short, I am saying Thailand is way behind the curve and the overall quality of decision-making leaves a lot to be desired.

If a country wants to calibrate its border control by country, then rely on the data available. As quick as Thailand is to impose entry restrictions, it should be equally quick to lift them when numbers change. If not, one cam imagine that visitors from France, Italy or the US may remained restricted long after cases have diminished in those places.

And it also says "Global level - Very high". So why single out any country at all for calibrated measures. Thailand (and all other countries) might as well shut down travel from the rest of the world. WHO will say "very high" because it has declared Covid-19 a pandemic.

Quite apart from the confusing and contradictory statements emanating from various Thai government officials, my sense is that few of them are even taking advice from epidemiology and medical experts or even referring to data. They are just letting their xenophobia play out. The ban on visa-on-arrival for Chinese tourists is a good case study. From this Bangkok Post story (https://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/easy/1847669/tourism-minister-against-scrapping-visas-on-arrival) Yet, we have Thailand begging China for supplies. Thailand needs to stock up in preparation for a larger number of cases which can only be expected. From https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878380/doctors-issue-stage-3-warning It's silly to antagonise a huge market like China and still be asking them for help. It's not even as if China is anymore a disease threat. The World Health Organisation has daily updates on the number of new cases per country. In the case of China, per province. You can see the data for 14 March here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_2 In the last 24 hours China had only 18 confirmed cases and 17 suspected cases. Out of a 1.4 billion population, such numbers do not warrant a ban on travel. China might have been a major source of infection a month ago, but no more. I would much rather they let in Chinese tourists to help keep the bars and massage parlours alive while we sit in our countries cooling our heels, than to have the whole sector collapse for lack of customers. The madness even gets to leaving a dead body on the sidewalk for more than six hours. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1878280/virus-fears-keep-rescuers-from-handling-body-of-chinese-man Is Fujian really a province with high coronavirus risk? Look again at the WHO data. In the last 24 hours, zero confirmed cases; zero suspected cases.

Given the ever-changing travel bans, we who are stuck have to live vicariously though others' trip reports for the time being, so please tell us more... Did you meet these guys through the apps -- if so, which app works best? -- through bars or through mall cruising? Were they more romantic engagements or transactional ones? If the latter, what's the going rate and what services are provided for that rate? (forgive me if I sound rather too blunt). Mack.

But, but.... Thailand is the most prepared country in Asia for responding to pandemics, says an October 2019 report (https://www.ghsindex.org/). Thailand ranks #6 among 195 countries surveyed, behind only the US, UK, Netherlands, Australia and Canada. The Global Health Security (GHS) Index "is the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations (IHR [2005]). The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU) and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)." This was widely reported, including in The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/10/24/none-these-countries-us-included-is-fully-prepared-pandemic-report-says/)

Even if the rules apply to the disease-infected zones, they don't speak of passengers from those countries. They speak of airlines operating flights from those zones. So, transit passengers transiting through Seoul or Hong Kong would be included. (I don;t suppose many would transit through Rome or Tehran.) Mack.

gpfun69 posted on the thread "Face Masks, Gel etc" an announcement that seems to come from the Thai government. I think it's more appropriate to discuss it here. The new rules are so sweeping, airlines may stop flights to Thailand altogether. Looks like another example of over-reaction by officials without thinking things through. Read point 5 carefully: So if Thai officials find one passenger, out of say 250, disembarking a plane to be Covid-positive, the aircraft can be detained in Thailand; all passengers can be required to stay on board for a medical examination.... What is not terribly clear to me is whether this rule applies only to airlines flying in from the named "disease-infected zones" (China+HK+Macao, Iran, SouthKorea and Italy) or if this rule applies to any aircraft landing in Thailand. If it is the former, chances are that the airline won't be flying to Thailand at all so the rule is moot. But if it is the latter, then all airlines will wonder if this rule can throw flight schedules completely out of whack, causing serious knock-on effects and losses. Would it be worthwhile to take the risk and still fly to Thailand? Rule #6 is also not clear whether it applies only to airlines flying in from the four listed countries, or if it applies to all airlines. The incalculable cost of paying for quarantine and hospitalisation of passengers would make any financial controller blanche. Is it worth continuing to operate routes into Thailand? airlines will ask themselves. Mack.

More and more, this is looking like a long-drawn-out epidemic. Even as cases in China fall, new epicentres keep emerging in other countries and tourism globally will be greatly affected. The low numbers in Thai bars -- and I suppose, massage places too -- will be the norm for months, perhaps well into the middle of the year. Do these businesses have the financial reserves and working capital to last through such a prolonged period of losses? I doubt it. Will landlords help by reducing rent? Will those other "lords" help by waiving demands for tea money through this period? One extreme scenario is that most such businesses close after two or three months of struggle and never re-open even when the epidemic is over. Unless, post-recovery, new entrepreneurs open new businesses to cater to us punters, the scene as we know it may become history. It's a sad thought, and I hope it doesn't come to that... but I can picture that possibility.

That having been said, Thailand isn't the only country where "confusion persists". Sydney Morning Herald, 8 March 2020: Source: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/two-australian-defence-force-members-test-positive-for-coronavirus-20200308-p547yr.html Meanwhile, news about Australia's Great Toilet Paper Scramble has travelled around the world even faster than the virus Mack.

Instead of having different departments issue varying statements, the government should have single department be in charge, preferably one that anchors policy-making on science and data. Bangkok Post, 6 March 2020, 20:51h Quarantine 'recommended' but enforcement unclear Travellers from six high-risk areas must report daily health status or possibly face penalties Authorities scrambled on Friday to ease worries about new self-quarantine measures for arrivals from six virus-hit countries and territories, a day after announcing compulsory isolation. But confusion persists over whether the government is ordering or merely “recommending” self-quarantine for 14 days, with punishment for travellers who ignore the “advice”. Read the rest of the article at https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1873174/quarantine-recommended-but-enforcement-unclear Mack.

The faux-pas of first putting up a notice on social media and then taking it down without saying whether it was cancelled or remained in effect will certainly make potential visitors reconsider all travel plans to Thailand. It's not just a matter of making flexible flight arrangements. Why make any arrangement at all if one cannot be sure whether one will be slapped with a quarantine order for 14 days on arrival? Today it is this country that is listed, tomorrow it may well be another country, including transit! Who is going to go to Thailand just to admire the wallpaper inside a hotel room non-stop for 336 hours (14 days)? And pay for 14 nights to do so? Uncertainty is the killer that will depress the country's tourism sector. The indecision, blundering and thoughtless policy announcements by this minister add to it. I am pretty sure the tourism minister who has to answer for his sector's shortfall must be irate at this public health minister. Mack.

I was just surfing around for coronavirus news when I chanced upon this tidbit from Singapore's Channel News Asia. The poor sod recklessly tried to live out his fantasy. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/thai-tour-coordinator-gets-jail-and-caning-for-sexual-assault-of-12495206 3 March 2020 Thai tour coordinator gets jail and caning for sexual assault of man in Singapore SINGAPORE: A Thai tour coordinator, in town to organise a business trip, sexually assaulted his male roommate while he was sleeping. For one count of sexual assault involving penetration, 46-year-old Thai national Chalermnarong Namsri was sentenced on Tuesday (Mar 3) to five-and-a-half-years' jail and three strokes of the cane. The court heard that Namsri was a freelance event coordinator in Thailand and was in Singapore in March last year to organise a sponsored business trip. He was tasked with liaising with tour guides for the sponsored participants, who were in town to learn about business in Singapore. The victim, a 24-year-old Thai national, was among the participants. He did not know Namsri, but was assigned to the same hotel room as the accused for the three-day trip. On Mar 27 last year, the victim returned to the room, which had two single beds, and went to sleep at about 3am. Namsri went to bed subsequently, but was woken up by the victim's alarm at about 5am, said Deputy Public Prosecutor Grace Teo. The victim continued sleeping, and the sight of him sleeping aroused Namsri, the court heard. He went under the victim's blanket and began performing a sex act on him. The victim reached under the blanket and grasped Namsri's hand, but thought he was dreaming and let go of it. Between 5am and 5.30am, Namsri sexually assaulted the victim by fellating him. The victim woke up and saw Namsri returning to his bed and was shocked. He took a shower before asking Namsri how long he had been "doing that" to him, and Namsri apologised. The victim went to meet his cousin and together they called the Thai embassy for advice. They were told to lodge a police report, and did so later that day. Namsri pleaded guilty to one count of sexual assault. The prosecutor asked for at least six years' jail and three strokes of the cane, saying that Namsri had exposed the victim to the risk of sexually transmitted diseases. He also took advantage of the situation, when the victim was asleep, and the assault took place in a shared hotel room where the victim had a right to feel safe. Defence lawyer Anand George asked for a term lower than what the prosecution pushed for, but left the exact length to the court. He said his client was remorseful and had cooperated with authorities. He said Namsri had no previous convictions and was a law-abiding citizen for the majority of his life. "He has no intention to remain in Singapore," said the lawyer. "He wishes to return to Thailand so he can rejoin his family." He added that Namsri had an impression that the victim may have consented to it, and that there was "no predatory behaviour or attempt to force the victim down". Namsri could have been jailed for up to 20 years and fined or caned.

That's a valuable antique map. It even has the Austro-Hungarian Empire. A map collector should buy it off the SIlom shop before it deteriorates.

"Clean and Sanitize Every days" -- shouldn't that have been done every night after closing even in normal times? Like wipe down all tables, armrests, seats, door handles, etc? Can anyone report on the conditions of the toilets? -- That's usually a good indicator of management standards.

Closing prisons? Where will the prisoners -- y'know, the robbers, thieves, murderers and drug traffickers -- go?

I feel quite bad saying this (especially since I'm no magazine model myself): but yes, I too find the guys generally unattractive. It's the main reason I mostly wave away offers of extra service. Mack.

You have a point. Movies have been made of Pearl Harbor (1941) and Dunkirk (1940). However, such pride/celebration of defending forces may only be possible if the country is the ultimate victor despite those losses. For example, I wonder if Germany could similarly indulge in celebrating German soldiers' efforts and valour in Stalingrad (1942) or the Japanese indulge in Midway (1942), without others sniggering. Mack.

Latest news is that 2 elderly persons have died in Iran from Covid-19. See https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/die-coronavirus-iran-fatalities-middle-east-200219171007605.html. There has recently been a cluster of respiratory diseases in Qom, but from the suddenness of this latest announcement, it appears that the doctors didn't think of testing patients for Covid-19 until recently. Even in the case of these two deceased, the Al Jazeera report says that "the two people had tested positive for the virus in preliminary results" suggesting that they didn't have time to do confirmatory tests before they died. This therefore also means that the patients might not have been fully isolated when they were ill. This supports my suspicion that there are probably outbreaks going on in places which aren't reported because no tests are being done, or no tests available. Indonesia comes to mind. The Shan states north of Chiangmai is another area. The borders between China and the Shan states, and between Shan states and Thailand are quite porous (drug smuggling is proof of that). Mack.